Modelling the competition for land: the Food-Energy nexus in Ireland

35th International Energy Workshop, June 1-3, 2016, Cork (Ireland)

Alessandro Chiodi, Trevor Donnellan, James Breen, Paul Deane and Brian Ó Gallachóir

Land use Food-Energy nexus

Land

Food

Energy

Urbanization

Key challenges

Climate Mitigation

“The agreement reaffirms the goal of keeping average warming below 2 degrees Celsius, while also urging parties to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees, a top priority for developing countries highly vulnerable to climate

impacts.” (COP21 Agreement, 2015)

“…to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 C, global GHG emissions by 2050 should be reduced by at least 50% below their 1990 levels.” (IPCC, 2007)

Food supply

“..the world population of 7.3 billion in mid-2015 is projected to reach 8.5 billionby 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100” (UN, 2015)

“..demand for agricultural products is expected to grow at 1.1 percent per year from2005/2007-2050” (FAO, 2012)

“Urbanization is foreseen to continue at an accelerating pace with urban areas to account for 70 percent of worldpopulation in 2050 (up from 49 percent at present)…” (FAO, 2009)

Sources:Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2015. OUTCOMES OF THE U.N. CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE IN PARIS. 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21). November 30 – December 12, 2015IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.UN, 2015. World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision.Alexandratos, N., Bruinsma, J., 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision., ESA Working paper No. 12-03. FAO, Rome, Italy.FAO, 2009. Global agriculture towards 2050. High-level expert forum

Research questions

Do perspectives on agriculture and energy in Ireland differ?

Will there be enough land for both food and energy?

Does the agri-food production influences choices in the development of future energy systems?

Why Ireland?

Agriculture

Agri-Food represents ~ 7% of Ireland’s GDP

Agri-food is Ireland’s oldest and largest indigenous industry

Mostly meat and dairy, most of which (~80%) is exported

Agri-food ≥ 50% of manufacturing exports, by Irish firms.

Why Ireland?

Land-use (2010)

Why Ireland?

Energy system (in 2013)

Fossil fuels account for 91.4% of all energy used in Ireland

Imported fossil fuels accounted for 89%

GHG emissions increased by 4.1% in the period 1990-2011 (-18.3% in the EU-28)

Why Ireland?

GHG emissions (2011)

Global context

Methodology

FAPRI-Ireland

Econometric partial equilibrium, dynamic, multi-product model of the Irish agriculture sector

Integrated within the FAPRI EU Gold model, which in turn can form a component of the FAPRI world model

Used to analyse the effect of policy changes on economic indicators (e.g. the supply and use of agricultural products, agricultural input expenditure and agricultural sector income)

Provides projections of animal numbers, input usage volumes, GHG emissions, fertiliser usage, ammonia emissions, land, etc.

Horizon: to 2035 (extended to 2050)

Methodology

Irish TIMES

We use the Irish TIMES model, the energy systems model of Ireland, in conjunction with the recently developed Agri-TIMES module.

It has been developed with the TIMES modelling framework, developed and supported by IEA-ETSAP

Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50 years)

Provides technology rich pathways

Scenario analysis

Horizon: 2005 – 2050 (2070)

Website: http://www.ucc.ie/en/energypolicy/irishtimes/

Methodology

Source:Chiodi, A., Donnellan, T., Breen, J., Deane, P., Hanrahan, K., Gargiulo, M., Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2014. Integrating agriculture and energy toassess GHG emissions reduction - a Methodological approach. Climate Policy (in Review)

Agri-TIMES module

Methodology

FLAGGS – Abatement measuresAbatement technology Description

Nitrification Inhibitors 70% reduction in N2O emissions from pasture systems.

Two applications per hectare at a cost of €60 per application.

Suitable for all livestock enterprises.

Inclusion of Clover in the Grassland Sward

Clover fixes nitrogen from the atmosphere resulting in a reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use and direct N2O emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application.

Reduce nitrogen use to 90 kg/ha.

Limited to farms of intermediate stocking density with organic nitrogen of 140-190 kg/ha

Cost of clover seed is 10 €/ha.

Suitable for all livestock enterprises.

Dietary Oil Supplement Feeding 4% oil results in a reduction in CH4 of 23.6% per cow.

Oil supplement cost is 1,400 €/tonne or 283 €/cow.

Increase in milk production of 434.95 litre/cow.

Suitable for the dairy enterprise.

Extending the Grazing SeasonExtended grazing season length to 285 days for farms with good soil conditions and 255 days for farms with poor soil conditions.

Emissions reduction of 0.14% per cow per extra grazing day.

Increased profitability of €2.70 per cow per extra grazing day.

Suitable for the dairy enterprise.

Manure Digester Fugitive CH4 emissions 10% of produced biogas

Cost of manure digester is 2777.8 €/kW

Suitable for the dairy, non-dairy, pigs and poultry enterprise

Agriculture perspective

Growth targets for 2025 (Food Wise 2025) Increasing the value of primary output in the agriculture, fisheries and forestry

sector by 85% increase (€19bn per annum) compared to the 2012-2014 average. Increasing the value-added in the agri-food, fisheries and wood products sector by

`compared to 2012.

Policy

Growth targets for 2020 (Food Harvest 2020) Increasing the value of primary output in the agriculture, fisheries and forestry

sector by 33% increase compared to the 2007-2009 average. Increasing the value-added in the agri-food, fisheries and wood products sector by

40% compared to 2008.

Agriculture perspective

Emissions

Agriculture emissions are projected to increase by 7% in the period 2014 to 2020 under the With Measures scenario. to increase by 6% under the With Additional Measures scenario emissions.

Both scenarios are based on an analysis of the proposed national herd, crop areas and fertilizer use to meet the overarching objectives of Food Wise 2025.

Agriculture perspective

Land use impact

Effort sharing decisions

National Plans

Energy system perspective

Policy

Energy system perspective

Renewable energy

Domestic crops land-usage

Land use impact

Integrated perspectives

Land use

Integrated perspectives

GHG sectoral reductions (rel. 1990) 2005 2030 2050

Sectors\Scenarios CO2-80 CO2-95 CO2-80 CO2-95

Power Generation 37% -56% -55% -79% -96%

Industry (incl. process) 26% -35% -43% -90% -90%

Transport (incl. int. aviation) 149% 99% 85% -84% -89%

Residential and services 1% -54% -60% -75% -99%

Agriculture (CO2, non-CO2) -3% 5% 6% 6% 5%

Transformation 62% -100% -100% -100% -100%

Energy 44% -28% -34% -80% -95%

Non-Energy -3% 2% 2% -6% -5%

Total 24% -15% -19% -48% -57%

Integrated land/mitigation strategies

Land use

2005 2030 2050

Sectors\Scenarios GHG-50 GHG-60 GHG-50 GHG-60

Power Generation 37% -56% -55% -73% -94%

Industry (incl. process) 26% -35% -39% -90% -90%

Transport (incl. int. aviation) 149% 95% 68% -76% -84%

Residential and services 1% -58% -60% -67% -82%

Agriculture (CO2, non-CO2) -3% 4% 4% -7% -13%

Transformation 62% -100% -100% -100% -100%

Energy 44% -30% -36% -73% -88%

Non-Energy -3% 1% 1% -18% -22%

Total 24% -17% -20% -50% -60%

Integrated perspectives

GHG sectoral reductions (rel. 1990)

Conclusions

Conflicts potentially exist between combating climate change and achieving food security.

Agri-food production influences future energy systems choices (e.g. more electrification instead of domestic bioenergy production)

Research and policy tend to neglect the role of agriculture in climate mitigation (as well the opposite)

Integrated approaches can provide insights to policy

Thank you

www.ucc.ie/energypolicyor