Bioaccumulation of mercury, cadmium, zinc, chromium, and lead in ...
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale.
Transcript of Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale.
Modelling of mercury, lead andcadmium at european scale.
Yelva Roustan
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 1/17
Introduction
I Long lived species, harmfull and bioaccumulable
I Convention on Long-Range Transboundary AirPollution (Geneva, 1979)
. Protocol on Heavy Metals (Aarhus, 1998)
• continental scale
• long-term simulation
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 2/17
Models: lead and cadmium
concentration
Pb 1-10 ng.m−3
Cd 0.1-1 ng.m−3
life time
days to weeks
. size distribution
. deposition process0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100
µm
1e-08
1e-06
1e-04
0.01
1
1/s
P0 = 1 mm/hP0 = 10 mm/hP0 = 50 mm/h
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100µm
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
cm/s
vent = 1 m/svent = 2 m/svent = 5 m/svent = 10 m/s
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 4/17
Models: mercuryconcentration life time
Hg0 1.5-2 ng.m−3 months
HgII 10-100 pg.m−3 hours to days
Hgp 10-100 pg.m−3 days to week
. chemical process
Petersen 1995 Ryaboshapko 2002
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Simulations: lead and cadmiumair concentration site wet deposition site
1 10Observation
1
10
Mo
del
-+ 75%-+ 50% 1 diameter10 diameters
Pb in air
0.1 1 10Observation
0.1
1
10
Pb wet flux
0.1 1Observation
0.1
1
Cd in air
1 10 100Observation
1
10
100
Mo
del
Cd wet flux
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 7/17
Simulations: cadmiumAir concentration (ng.m−3)
! " ! # ! !
$%$&
'(' $
')'%
'&) (
) $
*+, -. +, -
/ +, -0 +, -
1 +, 2 +, 1 +, 3 4 +, 3 5 +, 3 * +, 3
67 867 9
67 :67 ;
67 <67 =
67 >67 ?
67 @
1 diameter - (a)fractional bias
(a) - (b)10 diameters - (b)
ABC DE BC D
F BC DG BC D
H BC I B C H B C J K BC J L B C J AB C J
MNON
PNQN
RNSN
TNM MN
M QN
UVW XY VW X
Z VW X[ VW X
\ VW ] V W \ VW ^ _ VW ^ `V W ^ UVW ^
a bca dc
a eca f c
a g ca b
cb
g c
hij kl ij k
m ij kn ij k
o ij p ij o ij q r ij q s ij q h ij q
tuvu
wuxu
yuzu
ut tu
t xu
Total deposition flux (g.km−2.y−1)
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Total gaseous mercury concentration (ng.m−3)
annual mean monthly mean
J F M A M J J A S O N D1
1.5
2
2.5
ObservationPolair3D - v1Polair3D - v2
IE31 - Mace Head
J F M A M J J A S O N D1
1.5
2
2.5
FI96 - Pallas
J F M A M J J A S O N D1
1.5
2
2.5
NO99 - Lista
J F M A M J J A S O N D1
1.5
2
2.5
SE02 - Rorvik
POLAIR3D - v1 POLAIR3D - v2
IE31 FI96 NO99 SE02 IE31 FI96 NO99 SE02
observation 1,65 1,33 1,63 1,67 1,65 1,33 1,63 1,67
model 1,85 1,63 1,85 2,05 1,77 1,59 1,71 1,76
fractional bias -12 -20 -13 -21 -7 -18 -5 -7
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 9/17
Mercury deposition flux (g.km−2.y−1)
total deposition - annual mean wet deposition - monthly mean
ObservationPolair3D "corrected"Polair3D
SE11SE05048
12162024
SE02
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
DE01
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
J F MA M J J A S OND
ObservationECMWF data
DE09
J FMAM J J A SOND
NL91
J FMAM J J A SOND
04812162024
NO99
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
J F MA M J J A S OND
Deposition flux( g/km²/year)
Precipitation( mm/h )
DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE05 SE11
observation 4,4 6,2 9,1 8,9 5,4 3,6 4,7
POLAIR3D - v2 8,1 7,7 9,7 5,4 6,0 3,1 7,7
fractional bias -58 -22 -16 52 -7 20 -47
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 10/17
Sensitivity analysistransport equation: Ω = D × [0, τ ]
∂c
∂t+ div (uc) − div (K∇c) + Λ c + M c = σ
measurement equation:
µi =
∫
Ω
dtdx 〈πi(x, t), c(x, t)〉
adjoint equation:
−∂c
∗i
∂t−div (uc
∗i )−div (K∇c
∗i )+Λc
∗i +M
Tc∗i = πi
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 12/17
Sensitivity analysistransport equation: Ω = D × [0, τ ]
∂c
∂t+ div (uc) − div (K∇c) + Λ c + M c = σ
measurement equation:
µi =
∫
Ω
dtdx 〈πi(x, t), c(x, t)〉
adjoint equation:
−∂c
∗i
∂t−div (uc
∗i )−div (K∇c
∗i )+Λc
∗i +M
Tc∗i = πi
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 12/17
Sensitivity analysistransport equation: Ω = D × [0, τ ]
∂c
∂t+ div (uc) − div (K∇c) + Λ c + M c = σ
measurement equation:
µi =
∫
Ω
dtdx 〈πi(x, t), c(x, t)〉
adjoint equation:
−∂c
∗i
∂t−div (uc
∗i )−div (K∇c
∗i )+Λc
∗i +M
Tc∗i = πi
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 12/17
Sensitivity analysis
Contributions to the modelled measurement:
µi =
∫
Ω
dtdx 〈c∗i ,σ〉
︸ ︷︷ ︸
volume emission
+
∫
∂Ω0
dx 〈c∗i , c〉
︸ ︷︷ ︸
initial condition
+
∫
∂Ωb
dtdS · 〈c∗i ,E〉
︸ ︷︷ ︸
surface emission
−
∫
∂Ω+
dtdS · (〈c∗i , c〉u)
︸ ︷︷ ︸
boundary conditions
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 13/17
Sensitivity analysis: applications
sensitivity to boundary
and initial conditions
sensitivity to emissions
annual modelled measurement
monthly modelled measurement
log10( s / smax) s : average sensitivitysmax : maximum over the domain of s
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 14/17
Sensitivity analysis: applicationsTransboundary Pollution
example: Germany 2001January
February
! "#$
! "! % #$
! %! & #$
! &! ' #$
! '! ( #$
March
)*+ ,
- *+ ,
. *+ ,
/ *+ ,0 *+ 1 *+ 0 *+ 2 3 *+ 2 4 *+ 2
5 678
5 65 9 78
5 95 : 78
5 :5 ; 78
5 ;5 < 78
log10( s / smax) s : average sensitivitysmax : maximum over the domain of s
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 15/17
Model applicationImpact of EDF coal power plant
Mercury
Lead
Cadmium
! "# $% "# $
& "# $' "# $
( "# ) "# ( "#* + "#* , "#* ! "#*
-. - - -/
-. - -0-. - - /
-. -0-. -/
-. 0-. /
0/
Difference (in %) in the modeled deposition field due to theemission of the power plant (EMERAUDE).
Modelling of mercury, lead and cadmium at european scale. – p. 16/17
ConclusionI Heavy metal models
Roustan, PhD Thesis, 2005
I Sensitivity analysisRoustan and Bocquet, Journal of Geophysical Research 2006
I Inverse modellingRoustan and Bocquet, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2006
. Extension to a hemispherical domain
. Applications of the adjoint method
. Multi-media impact studySolen Queguiner, PhD Thesis
. Source-Receptor matrices
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