Modelling of complex systems

download Modelling of complex systems

of 28

Transcript of Modelling of complex systems

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    1/28

    1

    Definition of a system:A set of units with relationships among them that connect to form a

    whole. set" implies that the units or elements contain similar characteristics and that each unitor element is controlled, influenced, or dependent upon the state of other units. Systems have

    input, output, control, and feedback processes.

    Open systems exchange matter or information with the environment. (ex: every living

    organism, people, corporations, organisations, groups, families, interpersonal relationships and

    computer-based information systems).

    Closed systemshave clear boundaries prohibiting exchange of energy or information - isolated

    from their environment.

    General system Theory:

    - Heirarchies (systems within systems)- Boundaries (define system by drawing boundaries)- Dynamic (Change over time and internal relationships change as well)- Synergistic (the whole > sum of parts)-

    Feedback & Control (homeostasis)- Autopoesis (self-regulating)- Equifinality (same goal achieved via different paths)- Entropy (measure of disorder)

    Life:a property of improbable complexity possessed by an entity that works to keep itself out of

    equilibrium with its environment. R. Dawkins (1986)

    Characteristics of all living things:are organized, work together to create increasingly higher

    levels of complexity, metabolize, maintain internal environment, grow, respond, reproduce,

    evolve. Process->Form->Structure->Process.

    Living systems learn constantly (are adaptive) Living systems are self-organizing Life is systems-thinking Living systems are webbed with feedback (reciprocal modification) Living systems are interconnected Living systems are self-referential Living systems are autopoetic (self-regulating)

    First Law of Thermodynamics:Total energy in the universe is constant. (Energy can neither be

    created nor destroyed). You cant win, you can only break even.Second Law of Thermodynamics: Total entropy (randomness) in the universe is increasing.

    You cant even break even.Organisms vs. Machines: Open versus closed, Dynamic versus static, Fluid versus bounded,

    Adaptive versus rigid, Complex versus simple, Quantum versus Newtonian.

    Chaos Theory:Systems described as "chaotic" are extremely susceptible to changes in initial

    conditions. As a result, small uncertainties in measurement are magnified over time, making

    chaotic systems predictable in principle but unpredictable in practice. Attempts to uncover the

    statistical regularity hidden in processes that otherwise appear random, such as turbulence in

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    2/28

    2

    fluids, weather patterns, predator-prey cycles, the spread of disease, and even the onset of war.

    Chaos refers to an apparent lack of order in a system that nevertheless obeys particular laws or

    rules that can cause very complex behaviours or events. Emphasize the interconnectedness of

    everything. Connectedness generates order from disorder.

    Quantum Universe:There are fields of energy flooding the entire universe, containing all the

    information that ever was, is and will be. At the sub-atomic level of the universe, and, therefore,

    at the very core of human make-up, the physical nature of the universe is a dance of energy. It

    stands to reason that as a part of this celestial dance, we can have access to nature's wealth of

    information, and we can be influenced by it.

    The Vision of Leadership:Equilibrium is death to the quantum organization. A little creative

    chaos will continue to drive human creativity.

    Doctrines:

    - The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.- Complex systems are best managed from the bottom up. Today's top-down command and

    control management styles are complicated, inefficient, and problematic.- We must manage to recognize the tremendous individual potential in the workplace.

    The Vision:Our leadership mission is to create a setting in which human beings can flourish and

    are valued and recognized as the key to success. We will view employees as holistic versatile

    partners in the creation of enterprise.

    Characteristics of Successful Organisations: Self-organizing or self-renewing; Adaptive;

    Flexible to internal and external change; Feedback loops, reflection, self-awareness, information;

    Globally stable with local fluctuations; Open system; Self-referential.

    Learning Organisations: Respond to environmental changes; Tolerate stress; Compete

    effectively; Exploit new niches; Take risks; Develop symbiotic relationships; Evolve or perish.

    Organisational Change: When the system is far from equilibrium, individual creativity canhave a huge impact: amplification of feedback loop and presence of lone fluctuation is amplified.

    Organisations = Self Organising Systems = Complex Adaptive Systems:

    Portfolio of skills--not portfolio of business units. Many levels of autonomy. Need strong competency, identity, and vision. Strong frame of reference (Self-referent). Capacity for spontaneously emerging structures that best fit present need. Strong relationship to environment - as matures, more efficient, more adaptive. Co-evolution with environment: establishes basic structure facilitates insulation that

    protects system from constant, reactive changes.

    Chaos forces organization to seek new points of view. Organizations and their environments are evolving simultaneously toward better fitness

    for each other.

    Flexible response to changes.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    3/28

    3

    Transformational Leadership: Organizational beliefs (genetic code); Feedback loop:

    reciprocal modification; Guiding principles, shared vision; Straddle both continuity and

    discontinuity; Adaptable; Aware of environment; Reflective; Self-transcendent; Adhocracy.

    Entrepreneurial; Visionary; Build sustainable niche in emergent economic / political systems:

    The Leaders task is to communicate shared values and guiding principles, keep them in the

    forefront, and allow individuals in the system random, chaotic-looking meanderings. (Wheatley,

    p. 133).

    Interconncted-ness Conclusion:...Whatever befalls the earth, befalls the sons and daughters

    of the earth. Man did not weave the web of life; he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to

    the web, he does to himself F. Capra, The Web of Life, 1996.Characteristics of the computational methods

    Computational

    approach

    Characteristics

    Boolean

    networks

    The cell can be modeled as a network of two state components interacting

    between them. The state of each component depends of a particular

    boolean function.

    Expert systems The interactions (activation, phosphorylation, etc.) between signaling

    network components are modeled using production rules

    Differential-

    algebraic equations

    An ODE equation is built or each molecule x describing its relationship

    with all relevant moleculesy

    Cellular

    automata

    The interaction between cells or molecules is modeled as a matrix, where

    the state of an element of the matrix depends on the states of the

    neighbouring elements.

    Petri nets The cell is seen as a connected graph with two types of nodes. One type

    represents elements, such as signaling molecules, the other type represents

    transitions.

    Artificial neural

    networks

    The proteins in signaling networks are seen as artificial neurons in ANN.

    Like an artificial neuron, a protein receives weighted inputs, produces an

    output, and has an activation value.

    Distributed

    systems (agents)

    The cell is seen as a collection of agents working in parallel. The agents

    communicate between them through messages.

    SFG: Scale-free Graphs

    The original presentation of scale-free (SF) graphs describes them in terms of a constructionmechanism based on incremental growth (i.e. nodes are added one at a time) and preferential

    attachment (i.e. nodes are more likely to attach to nodes that already have many connections).

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    4/28

    4

    Cellular processes and associated computational schemes

    Process type Dominant phenomena Computation schemes

    Metabolism Enzymatic reaction DAE, FBA

    Signal transduction inSepsis

    Molecular binding DAE, StAl,Scale-free networks

    Gene expression Molecular binding,

    polymerization, degradation

    OOM, DAE, Boolean

    networks, StAl

    DNA replication Molecular binding,

    polymerization

    OOM, DAE

    Cytoskeletal Polymerization,

    depolymerization

    DAE, particle dynamics

    Cytoplasmic streaming Streaming Finite-element method

    Membrane transport Osmotic pressure, membrane

    potential

    DAE, electrophysiology

    Unstructured VS Structured networks

    Unstructured Networks Structured Networks

    No specific topology Predetermined topology

    Random connections Predetermined connections (DHT)

    Offer better resilience to network dynamics

    (nodes joining and leaving, node failure andnetwork attacks)

    Degraded performance during node removals

    (needs much maintenance), node failures andnetwork attacks

    Bad performance, node reachability, responsetime and no diameter quarantee

    Better performance, faster response time andlow diameter

    Lack of scalability, network partitioning More scalable, but problem in generic keywordsearches

    Resilient in attacks Vulnerable in attacks

    Examples: Gnutella, KaZaA Examples: Chord, CAN (DHT)Network Resiliency

    - Power-law networks often collapse under targeted attacks in nodes with high degrees(network partitioning).

    - Guidelines for resiliency: Hide the identity of high connected nodes. Node maintenance,rearrange connections under attack.

    - Assume that attacker can force a node to drop out of network (e.g. DOS attack) when itknows the nodes IP.

    - Goal of resilience is a network graph close to a strongly connected graph as possible.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    5/28

    5

    Organized complexity

    Requires highly organized interactions, by design or evolution Completely different theory and technology from emergence

    Simple answers: Predictable results; Short proofs; Simple outcomes.

    Complex, uncertain, hostile environments Unreliable, uncertain, changing components Limited testing and experimentation

    Yet predictable, robust, reliable, adaptable, evolvable systems

    Complexity and Post-Modern Solution Themes

    The dominant model has become complex adaptive systems (CAS), which focuses on the holistic

    patterns. Underlying self-organizing systems are simple design principles. Organizational

    practices turn into rules so keep them few, and to try small-scale experiments instead of fast,

    large-scale interventions.

    SCALE FREE NETWORKS !SFN are complex networks!Dorogovtsev and Mendes provide a standard programme of empirical research of a complexnetwork. For the case of undirected graphs, these steps consist of finding1. the degree distribution;

    2. the clustering coefficient;

    3. the average shortest-path length

    SFN and the power law:

    Barabasi and Albert consider that many large random networks share the common feature that

    the distribution of their localconnectivity is free of scale, following a power law.

    Properties of SFN:

    1. SF networks have scaling (power law) degree distribution.2. SF networks can be generated by various random growth processes.

    3. SF networks have highly connected, centrally located nodes (hubs), which give the robustyet fragile feature of error tolerance but attack vulnerability.4. SF networks are generic in the sense of being preserved under random degree preserving

    rewiring.

    5. SF networks are universal in the sense of not depending on domain-specific details.

    6. SF networks are self-similar.

    Power-Law Properties:

    - Power-law (or scale-free) networks: their degree distribution follows a power law,p(K)=K

    - , where K=degree, p(K)=the number of nodes with degree K and is theexponent, in most networks it tends to be close to 2.

    - This means that in power-law networks many nodes have low degree and few nodes havea very high degree.

    - These high connected nodes act as hubs for the rest nodes.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    6/28

    6

    - Every new node that joins the network wants to connect to a preferred node (with highdegree) for better visibility.

    - This approach guarantees power-law for degree distribution.Scale-free Networks vs. Random Networks:

    - SFN displays high tolerance to random node failures; but is fragile against attacks.- Random networks: insensitive to random attacks.

    Generation of Robust (SFN) Networks

    Robustness Complex systems maintain their basic functions even under errors and failures

    (cellmutations; Internetrouter breakdowns)

    - Incremental addition of nodes (agents).- A fixedEnumber of links per agent. Initially:Efully connected nodes.- Agents maximize their connectivity by linking to the nodes with the highest degrees.

    Preferential Attachment Model (for the generation of scale-free networks):

    incremental addition of nodes. Each node has a fixed number of links. Newcomers attach to existing nodes with probability proportional to the nodes

    connectivity.

    The Robustness of Internet:

    Random failures of nodes have little effect on the overall connectivity.

    The networks of Internet have a characteristic (scale-free) structure.The distribution of the #links per node follows a power law #nodes[#links = k] = k

    -

    (a)Hierarchical scale-free (HSF) network: the construction combines scale-free structure andinherent modularity in the sense of exhibiting an hierarchical architecture that starts with

    a small 3-pronged cluster and build a 3-tier network a adding edge routers roughly in a

    preferential manner.(b)Random network: This network is obtained from the HSF network in (a) by performing a

    number of pairwise random degree-preserving rewiring steps.

    (c)Poor design: In this heuristic construction, we arrange the non-edge routers in a line, picka node towards the middle to be the high-degree, low bandwidth bottleneck, and establish

    connections between high-degree and low-degree nodes.

    (d)HOT network: The construction mimics the build-out of a network by a hypothetical ISP.It produces a 3-tier network hierarchy in which the high-bandwidth, low-

    connectivityrouters live in the network core while routers with low-bandwidth and high-

    connectivity reside at the edge of the network.

    Topological characterization of SFN

    Heterogeneous networks: The Internet and the World-Wide-Web Protein networks Metabolic networks Social networks Food-webs and ecological networks

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    7/28

    7

    SFG: Scale-free Graphs: The original presentation of scale-free (SF) graphs describes themin terms of a construction mechanism based on incremental growth (i.e. nodes are added one at a

    time) andpreferential attachment (i.e. nodes are more likely to attach to nodes that already have

    many connections).

    Scale-free model

    GROWTH : At every timestep we add a new node with m edges (connected to the nodes already

    present in the system).

    (2) PREFERENTIAL ATTACHMENT : The probability that a new node will be connected tonode idepends on the connectivity kiof that node

    Tools for characterizing the various models

    - Connectivity distribution P(k) => Homogeneous vs. Scale-free- Clustering- Assortativity

    Random Graph Theory

    Developed in the 1960s by Erdos and RenyiDiscusses the ensemble of graphs with N vertices and M edges (2M links). Distribution of connectivity per vertex is Poissonian (exponential), where k is the number of

    links :

    ,

    Distance d=log N -- SMALL WORLDCritical Exponents

    Using the properties of power series (generating functions) near a singular point

    (Abelian methods), the behavior near the critical point can be studied.For random breakdown the behavior near criticality in scale-free networks is different than for

    random graphs or from mean field percolation. For intentional attack-same as mean-field.

    Optimal Distance - Disorder

    Weak disorder (WD)all contribute to the sum (narrow distribution)Strong disorder (SD)a single term dominates the sum (broad distribution)

    Generalized percolation , >4Erdos-Renyi, 4) scale free Scale Free networks (2

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    8/28

    8

    Node Maintenance Mechanism

    - A state probing mechanism for node failure or attack cases:- The number of neighbors of a node i (h i) is: hi = hir + hip +hib, where hir, hip, hibrepresent

    random, preferential (standard and highly) and backward neighbors

    - If hir + hip < threshold, node i runs a maintenance procedure- If a node leaves gracefully it informs neighbors but if it leaves forcefully a neighbor node

    can be informed only through probing

    - Probing: message M2= is send to all neighbors bya node i waiting for response in a timeout if neighbor is alive

    Preferential Nodes

    - Is normal to encourage the use of nodes with higher degree than the average (preferrednodes)

    - If is the average number of neighbors a new node will connect to /2 nodes fromGrandom,iand to /2 nodes from Gcandidates,ithat appears most (Gpreferred,i) since ai(t0)=1

    -

    Probability that a preferred node appears (a node that appears at least twice in candidateslist) versus the average number of neighbors for different values of N (number of nodes

    in the initial network)

    Attack Analysis

    - Three different types of attacks: Modest attack: a user that acquires host cache information and candidates list like

    a normal user and then attacks to the nodes that appears most, removing them

    from the network

    Group Type I attack:add a number of nodes to network that only point to eachother for increasing the possibility to emerge as preferred nodes and then create

    anomalies and suddenly disconnect all at the same time for partitioning thenetwork

    Group Type II attack: add a number of nodes to network that behaves likenormal nodes and then create anomalies and suddenly disconnect all at the same

    time for partitioning the network

    - Last two attacks are possible as network is open without any authentication orauthorization

    - Simulations in network with 2000 nodes (starting with 20), each node chooses a numberof neighbors between 5 and 8

    - Metric: percentage of unique reachable nodes in the network vs. the number of hops(TTL)

    Giant Component

    - Giant component: the largest portion of network that remains strongly connected underattacks

    - Metric: percentage of nodes in giant component vs. percentage of malicious users (groupattack)

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    9/28

    9

    Alpha behavior

    - parameter contributes in creating highly connected nodes when it decreases, so it helpsfor fast recovery

    - Simulation with hybrid attack 10% Group Type I and 20% Group Type II, behaviorstudied

    Betweenness

    measures the centrality of a node i:for each pair of nodes (l,m) in the graph, there are

    slm

    shortest paths between l and m

    silm

    shortest paths going through i

    biis the sum of silm

    / slm

    over all pairs (l,m)

    SIS model on SF networks: SIS = Susceptible Infected Susceptible. Mean-Field usualapproximation: all nodes are equivalent (same connectivity) => existence of an epidemic

    threshold 1/ for the order parameter r (density of infected nodes). Scale-free structure =>necessary to take into account the strong heterogeneity of connectivities => rk=density of

    infected nodes of connectivity k.

    Important characteristics of SFN: Noticeable resilience to random connection failure; Very

    sensitive to selective damage ( the attack against highly connected nodes).

    Immunization strategy:The network will increase its tolerance to infections at the price of a

    tiny number of immune individuals. Design of more robust networks; Improved routing

    algorithms; Prevention of epidemic broadcast (both human and computer viruses).

    Examples of Complex Adaptive Systems: Living organisms. Nervous systems. Immune

    systems. Insect colonies. Human societies. Cities. Economies. Markets. The WWW.

    Characteristics of Complex Systems:

    - Multiple Logics (contradictory rules)- Non-Linear (formally unpredictable)- Dynamical (not in equilibrium)- Not Deterministic (but not completely random)- Often Not Well-Behaved (exhibiting sudden large changes of behavior)- Open With Permeable Boundaries, Produce Effects Disproportional To Their Causes

    Types of complexity:

    Static Complexity: Fixed structures, frozen in time. Dynamic Complexity: Systems with time regularities. They have cyclic attractors. Evolving Complexity: Open ended mutation, innovation. Related are diffusion

    aggregation and similar branching tree structures.

    Self-Organizing Complexity: Self-maintaining systems, aware.Build artificial complex adaptive system:

    Complex Adaptive System --Observation--> Experimental Data --Modelling--> Computational

    Model --Design--> New Complex Adaptive System.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    10/28

    10

    Some Key Attributes of complex adaptive systems:

    Self-Organized Order: Order emerges from the interaction of simple entities. Minimalpre-design, low cost, adaptivity, versatility.

    Decentralization: All sensing, information processing, communication and control is local, with minimal central guidance. Scalability, robustness, flexibility,

    expandability.

    Multiple Scales: Entities and processes at many spatiotemporal scales. Depth ofrepresentation and information processing.

    Self-Similarity (in many cases): The same structural motifs are present at many scales.Algorithmic economy, expandability

    Self-Organization:

    - The spontaneous emergence of large-scale spatial, temporal, or spatiotemporal order in asystem of locally interacting, relatively simple components.

    - Self-organization is a bottom-up process where complex organization emerges at multiplelevels from the interaction of lower-level entities. The final product is the result ofnonlinear interactions rather than planning and design, and is not known a priority.

    - Contrast this with the standard, top-down engineering design paradigm where planningprecedes implementation, and the desired final system is known by design.

    Main features of complex self-organizing structures:

    Uncontrolled - Autonomous agents, no executive or directing node (power symmetry). Nonlinear - Outputs are not proportional to input (superposition does not hold) Emergence - Properties are not describable in part terms (meta-system transitions) Coevolution - Part structure correlates to an external environment (contextual fitness) Attractors - Each occupies a small area of state space (concurrent options) Non-Equilibrium - System operates far from equilibrium (dissipative). Energy flows

    drive the system away from equilibrium and establish semi-stable modes as dynamic

    attractors. This relates to metabolic self-sustaining activity which in living systems is

    usually called autopoiesis.

    Non-Standard - System contains structures in space and time (heterogeneous); initiallyhomogenous systems will develop self-organising structures dynamically.

    Non-Uniform - Parts are non-equivalent (different rules or local laws) Phase Changes - Edge of chaos states maintained (power law distributions of properties

    occurs in both space and time) .

    Unpredictability - Sensitivity to initial conditions (chaos) Instability - Stepped evolution or catastrophes exist (punctuated equilibria) Mutability - Random internal changes or innovations occur (dynamic state space); new

    configurations are possible due to part creation, destruction or modification.

    Self-Reproduction - Ability to clone identical or edited copies (growth) Self-Modification - Ability to change connectivity at will (redesign)

    Elements of Self-Organization:

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    11/28

    11

    Interacting components provide the substrate for organization of higher-level structures.

    Interaction/communication is necessary for creating linkages to assemble larger structures.

    Example components are molecules, cells, agents, etc. Example interactions are excitation,

    inhibition, sensing, attraction, repulsion, etc.

    Constructive processes needed to build larger structures from the components, e.g., reproduction,

    aggregation, crystallization, copying, growth, recombination, ramification, etc.

    Destructive processes needed to tear down existing (possibly suboptimal or unwanted) structures

    to make room for new ones, (death, fragmentation, division, mixing, turbulence, noise).

    Autocatalysis/positive feedback needed to reinforce and drive the construction of useful

    structures, e.g., splits encouraging more splitting to create a complex branching structure.

    Homeostasis/negative feedback needed to prevent runaway structure formation, e.g., structures

    beyond a certain size becoming non-receptive to further addition or even unstable.

    Nonlinearity needed to magnify some effects and squelch others in order to produce complex

    structure. Examples include thresholds, unimodal and multimodal dependencies, saturation, and

    amplification underlying the constructive, destructive and feedback processes.What is Emergence?

    The appearance of large-scale collective order that cannot be described completely in terms of

    the individual system components.e.g., meaning from a collection of words, a society from acollection of individuals, a wave from a collection of particles, a picture from a collection of

    pixels. Emergence seeks to move beyond pure reductionism without resorting to metaphysical

    explanations, e.g., in explaining phenomena such as intelligence and life. Complex adaptive

    systems exhibit spontaneous emergence at many levels of description.

    Why do we need to build complex adaptive systems?

    To control other complex adaptive systems (communication networks, biological systems).

    To obtain systems with attributes such as intelligence, adaptivity, robustness, scalability, andflexibility for operation in complex, dynamic and uncertain environments ( battlefields, disaster

    areas, hazardous regions, ocean floors, outer space).

    To create very large-scale or fine-grained systems where standard design, control, and analysis

    methods break down for capacity reasons (sensor networks with millions of nodes).

    Design approaches: Traditional Top-Down Approach; Self-Organized Bottom-Up Approach;

    Heterarchical Holistic Approach.

    Examples of Complex Adaptive Systems:

    Living organisms. Nervous systems (brains). Immune systems. Ecosystems. Insect colonies. Human societies. Cities. Economies.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    12/28

    12

    Markets. The world-wide web.

    Examples of Engineered Complex Adaptive Systems:

    Self-organized sensor networks. Smart matter / smart structures. Smart paint. Smart dust. Amorphous computers. Evolvable hardware. Self-shaping, self-repairing materials. Self-reconfiguring robots. Kilorobot or megarobot swarms.

    Self-Organized Traditional Top-Down Approach:

    Consider all possibilities.

    Develop a very careful design. Thoroughly test the design to verify performance. Implement and test a prototype. Carefully replicate the verified design to ensure reliability.

    This top-down approach relies on anticipation of all eventualities, meticulous design, thorough

    testing, and exact replication to obtain the desired level of performance. It works best in well-

    understood, predictable and relatively simple environments --- no surprises please!

    Self-Organized Bottom-Up Approach:

    Provide the basic elements/components needed. Let the components interact among themselves and with the environment to organize

    through an iterative process of creative exploration and selective destruction.This approach produces good designs by multi-scale, parallel, intelligent random search through

    the space of possibilities. It is appropriate -- necessary -- for large-scale complex systems

    operating in complex, dynamic, unpredictable environments, e.g., the real world.

    Holistic Complexity View: We can summarise the structure of complex systems in an overall

    heterarchical view where successively higher levels show a many to many (N:M) structure,

    rather than the top down (1:N) tree structure common to conventional thought.

    Key Difference between Top-Down, Bottom-Up and Hierarchical

    - Top-DownEvery aspect of the system at all levels is carefully designed and evaluated.Critically dependent on component reliability. Non-scalable in cost, time, effort,

    reliability. Inflexible in response to novel conditions.

    - Bottom-UpOnly the basic simple and cheap components are designed; the rest of thesystem organizes itself. Inherently scalable. Flexible, robust, versatile, expandable,

    evolvable.

    - Hierarchical The components at each level also connect horizontally to form anhierarchy - an evolving web like network of associations which generates the

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    13/28

    13

    autocatalysis or self-production aspect of the system. The 'part' interactions will createemergent modules with new properties. The groups of interlaced networks are

    coevolutionary constrained by downward causalities.

    What do complex adaptive systems buy us?

    Scalability: The system can grow much larger because no one needs to keep track ofeverything.

    Flexibility: The system can change as needed simply by individual agents changing theirbehavior.

    Versatility: The system can be used in many different situations without redesign. Expandability: More agents can be added to the system without redesign. Robustness: The system can withstand changes and even loss of individual agents.

    In complex environments that change all the time, we cannot anticipate all situations, so we

    cannot pre-design a system that is always guaranteed to work.

    However, engineered complex systems are also: Unpredictable; Open-ended; Opaque;Imperfect; Imprecise; Uncertain.

    Engineering Self Organizing Systems - Key Features:

    In our approach complex systems are described in terms of self-organization processes ofprime integer relations.

    A prime integer relation is an indivisible element built from integers as the basicconstituents following a single organizing principle.

    Prime integer relations can characterize correlation structures of complex systems andmay describe complex systems in a strong scale covariant form.

    Determined by arithmetic only, the self-organization processes of prime integer relationsmay describe complex systems by information not requiring further explanations.

    Some Enabling Technologies: MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems). Nanotechnology.Miniaturized wireless devices. Miniaturized power sources. Ad-hoc wireless networks. Very

    high-speed digital circuits. FPGAs. Micro-robots. Neural networks. Evolutionary algorithms.

    Cellular Automata:are discrete-time, lattice-based dynamical systems where the next state of

    each cell depends on the current state of its neighborhood. Cellular automata provide a simple

    but powerful way to study many fundamental features of biological systems, e.g.: Pattern

    formation. Growth and morphogenesis. Spatial interactions and organization. Spreading

    activation and signaling. Self-replication. etc.

    Cellular Automata as Simple Self-Organizing SystemsAn ``elementary'' cellular automaton

    consists of a sequence of sites carrying values 0 or 1 arranged on a line. The value at each site

    evolves deterministically with time according to a set of definite rules involving the values of its

    nearest neighbours. 2^8 = 256 possible rules. Only the 32 rules of the form abcdbed0 satisfy

    reflection symmetry and leave the ``quiescent'' configuration -000000- unchanged, and are

    therefore considered ``legal''. All ``complex'' cellular automaton rules yield asymptotically self-

    similar patterns. All give the same fractal dimension Log23 ~1.59 except for rule 150 which

    gives a fractal dimension 1+ Log2f~1.69 where f is the ``golden ratio (1+5)/2.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    14/28

    14

    Evolution of Development: Growth and development of an organism, or in this case a

    genetically-controlled complex system, determine its form and function.

    Over the course of its life history, the 'organism' goes through:

    * an embryonic stage

    * an ontogenetic (juvenile) stage, and

    * an adulthood stage

    In each stage of development, the 'organism' progressively develops the more specialized pieces

    of its functional anatomy and behavior. This process has been described by the phrase 'ontogeny

    recapitulating phylogeny', meaning that a developing 'organism' will resemble its ancestors

    before its species-distinct characteristics are expressed.

    From the biological to the artificial: Most importantly, the length of each developmental stage

    is the primary driving force behind morphological growth and development (morphogenesis).

    The process of changes in the length of growth during development and the rate of that growth is

    called heterochrony. DeGaris: models embryogenesis, or the development of distinct shapes

    from an undifferentiated blob. Rust et al: models neural morphogenesis, or the development ofneurons in the brain from an undifferentiated mass of cells.

    Rule-Based Development:

    * molecular interactions regulation and expression of hormones and genes, influence self-organization of neural structures.

    * formation of neuron morphology different patterns of connectivity, differentiation into celltypes.

    * neural systems several cell types all functionally integrated but structurally modular,plasticity allows for pruning and reconfiguration of connections based on function.

    Evo-devo and complexity The evolution of development provides us with two problems

    relevant to Evolutionary Computation:1) self-assembly

    2) applying evolutionary techniques to the 'complexity' problem

    DeGaris discusses building 'hyper-complex' systems by

    a) using embryological algorithms to evolve shapes

    b) shapes are self-assembled at several scales, which allows for the construction of systems of

    which the inner workings cannot be easily understood.

    Issues in modeling Evo-Devo: Variation- development produces variety using a hierarchical

    system of regulatory systems and controls. Adaptation- different systems can be built through

    adjusting 'genes' that modulate development. Regulation- multiple interactions and relations can

    be controlled by a relatively small number of genes and input parameters. Modularity- creates

    repeated structures and functional modules. Robustness- robust to variations in the

    developmental environment (complex systems can be created without an complete blueprint).

    Optimization- a process involving a search of an n-dimensional space of all developmental

    parameters, which determine when or whether or not a rule is activated, in addition to the

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    15/28

    15

    frequency of its use. In these cases, some traditional GA/GP concepts of optimization are

    utilized, but get applied in novel ways.

    Two models of digital morphogenesis

    Rust et al (2002) use an attraction/repulsion model, while DeGaris (1992) uses 2-D and 3-D

    cellular automata (CA's).

    Attraction/repulsion:

    * the Genesis GA system was used to evolve connectivity in a three layer neural network system

    * intrinsic branchingoccurs in the first phase of development. This growth is mediated in the

    second stage by local 'chemical' gradients

    * interactive splitting occurs in the second stage as 'chemical' sources are encountered in a

    manner congruent with current growth of the neuronal structures,

    * the first two stages of the attraction/repulsion model lead to an overgrowth of synaptic

    connections between neurons.

    * growth rates are regulated over time by switching from one phase of growth to another.

    * in the third stage of development, these extra synapses are pruned to optimize localfunctionality in space and time.* this is similar to what happens naturally in the visual system.

    2-D and 3-D Cellular Automata: Segev and Ben-Jacob (1998) also use CA's to model

    embryogenesis.

    DeGaris starts by defining a subset of cells in the automata grid as a target shape. A small

    number ofparent cells are inserted and allowed to evolve using uniform crossover and mutation

    until the target shape is acquired. The interaction rules are:

    1) a parent cell 'pushes' the grid in a given direction, while the internal state of a parent cell

    determines that direction,

    2) a finite number of iterations should be allowed for each colony to self-organize into thedesired shape, and

    3) the final shape will produce a fitness that can be measured.

    'Fitness' criterion in digital morphogenesis

    DeGaris defines "fitness" as the degree to which the colony of parent cells and their children

    conform to initially desired shape.

    De Garis Embryo Loop algorithm//calculate cellular NEWS number (CNNs) of each cell

    //from CNNs, calculate ranking pattern (RPN) of each cell

    //use ranking pattern number to see if each cell reproduces or dies

    //find reproduction and death directions for selected cells

    //perform reproductions, perform deaths

    * based on the NEWS number and the ranking, a matrix is calculated for each cell as operators

    for the reproduction instructions (i) and death instructions (j).

    This chromosome is divided into:

    * the number of iterations required to achieve the desired shape (N1)

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    16/28

    16

    * the rules for reproduction (REPRO1 -- 75 loci long) for the first iteration

    * the direction in which the initial blob can spread (R DIRNS1 75 loci long) for the firstiteration.

    Retele booleene:

    Mijloace informatice de simulare a comportarii sistemelor dinamice RB: Retele de unitati binare

    Se justifica deoarece:

    Reprezinta o idealizare a unei tendinte naturale Numeroase fenomene celulare si biochimice tind spre o stare tot sau nimic

    Pot reproduce structura logica a sistemelor biologice continue Majoritatea genelor au doua alele (variante): ca atare putem reprezenta o alela cu

    (0) si cealalta cu (1).

    2 parametri N: numarul de unitati binare

    K: numarul de intrari la fiecare unitate Mecanism simplu: Intrare (0,1)Functie booleanaIesire (0,1)

    2N stari posibile Cu cat creste K, cu atat avem mai multe functii booleene posibile Starea la momentul T+1 depinde de starea la momentul T Numar finit de stari:

    Reteaua trebuie sa fie capabila sa repete o anumita traiectorie in spatiul starilor Exista atractori

    Random Boolean networks (RBNs):

    Classic algorithm nnodes with kincoming links per node Each node can be either on (1) or off (0) at any given time Updating is synchronous Update rule is a random Boolean function of inputs, assigned when the network is

    created, different for each node

    For each node there will be 22kpossible functions Each node has n!/(n-k)! Possible ordered combinations for k links

    RBN dynamics:

    Low connectivity -> Freeze to a single state (point attractor) Moderate connectivity (~2) -> Limit cycle behaviour High connectivity -> Chaotic dynamics Edge of chaos at the transition between ordered and chaotic dynamics It has been suggested that complex systems evolve to the edge of chaos because this

    combines optimal robustness and flexibility

    Advantages of Artificial Genome models:

    More biologically plausible Genome / phenotype representation Development could be modelled

    Network characteristics can be selected via appropriate parameterization

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    17/28

    17

    Genome is a convenient representation for EC modelling Genetic operators applied at the genome level act differently from those applied at

    the network level

    Evolutionary algorithm:

    f = n(l/2) each run 100 times with different random number seed n = number of times a previous state was revisited l = number of states before revisiting

    Random Boolean genetic network model:

    Genetic network inside a cell Random Boolean network

    First proposed by Kauffman Kauffman, S. A. (1969). Metabolic stability and epigenesis in randomly

    constructed genetic nets.Journal of Theoretical Biology, 22:437467. Consist of N nodes which have K random connections and randomly assigned

    Boolean functions.

    Canalyzing Rule: Canalyzing function has at least one input, such that for at least one input value, the

    output value is fixed.

    Ex) AND, ORRobustness:

    The average effect, after a single time step, of a small perturbation at the equilibriumdistribution.

    Total Sensitivity, S (R) The sum of the probabilities that a single flipped input will alter the output of R.

    Tissue Simulations:

    - Each cell communicates with its four nearest neighbours.- All cells have identical internal network architecture and rules (with N=50).- Each connection in network represents how a gene influences the transcription of another

    gene.

    - The value of a fraction, k, of genes is decided by intercellular connections it is true ifany of the four neighbours is true.

    Goals of Network Biology Approach

    1. From the elementary interactions among the participating models, explain the complexbehavior of a cellular function.

    The Alliance for Cellular Signaling has identified over 600 molecules involved inG-protein coupled signal transduction.

    2. By comparing networks from many organisms, deducing the engineering principles bywhich cell perform particular functions and deal with uncertainty in their environment.

    The System of Linear Equations and Correlation Structures of Complex Systems: It is

    shown that the correlation structures underlying the conservation of the quantities are built in

    accordance with the hierarchical structures of prime integer relations associated with the system

    of equations and inequality.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    18/28

    18

    Prime Integer Relations, a New Irreducible form of Information:

    Prime integer relations give information in an irreducible form.

    - we can be confident in an arithmetic statement as we can easily check it.- we know how the prime integer relation is built and may observe symmetry in its

    corresponding geometric pattern.

    - we can associate with the prime integer relation a correlation structure of a complexsystem.

    How Prime Integer Relations Describe Complex Systems: In our approach a complex system

    is described in terms of prime integer relations. A prime integer relation describes a correlation

    structure of the complex system. In this capacity it encodes:the parts of the correlation structure;

    the relationships between them, i.e., how the parts are correlated; the strength of the correlations,

    i.e., how the dynamics of some parts of a relationship determine the dynamics of the other parts.

    Search for an Optimality Condition of Complex Systems: A complex system S demonstratesthe optimal performance for a problem P, if its complexity C(S) is in a certain relationship C(S)

    = F(C(P)) with the complexity C(E) of the problem P.Itsproposed to measure complexity interms of self-organization processes of prime integer relations.The Optimality Condition as a Possible Way to Manage Complex Systems Efficiently:

    The optimality condition suggests the complexity of a system as a key to its optimization. It tells us that as long as we properly relate the complexity of the system with the

    complexity of the problem, the optimal result is guaranteed.

    Moreover, given the complexity of a problem, we may calculate then the complexity ofthe system needed to obtain the optimal result.

    L-Systems:

    - A model of morphogenesis, based on formal grammars (set of rules and symbols).- Introduced in 1968 by the Swedish biologist A. Lindenmayer.- Originally designed as a formal description of the development of simple multi-cellular

    organisms.

    - Later on, extended to describe higher plants and complex branching structures.Self-Similarity: When a piece of a shape is geometrically similar to the whole, both the shapeand the cascade that generate it are called self-similar (Mandelbrot, 1982).The recursive nature of the L-system rules leads to self-similarity and thereby fractal-like forms

    are easy to describe with an L-system.

    Self-Similarity in Fractals: Exact; Example Koch snowflake curve; Starts with a single line

    segment; On each iteration replace each segment by; As one successively zooms in the resulting

    shape is exactly the same.

    Self-similarity in Nature:Approximate; Only occurs over a few discrete scales (3 in this Fern);

    Self-similarity in plants is a result of developmental processes, since in their growth process

    some structures repeat regularly. (Mandelbrot, 1982).

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    19/28

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    20/28

    20

    - fMove forward a step of length dwithout drawing a line. The state of the turtle changesas above.

    - + Turn left by angle . The next state of the turtle is (x, y, + ).- - Turn left by angle . The next state of the turtle is(x, y, -b).

    w: F+F+F+F; p: F F+F-F-FF+F+F-F; Angle () = 90;Bracketed L-systems

    To represent branching structures, L-systems alphabet is extended with two new symbols: [, ], to

    delimit a branch. They are interpreted as follows:

    [ Push the current state of the turtle onto a pushdown stack.

    ] Pop a state from the stack and make it the current state of the turtle. No line is drawn, in

    general the position of the turtle changes.

    Turtle Interpretation of Bracketed Strings: w: F;p: F F[-F]F[+F][F]; Angle () = 60;Generative Encodings for Evolutionary Algorithms:

    - EAs has been applied to design problems. Past work has typically used a direct encodingof the solution

    - Alternative: Generative encoding, i.e. an encoding that specifies how to construct thegenotype

    - Greater scalability through self-similar and hierarchical structure and reuse of parts- Closer to Natural DNA encoding

    Examples of Generative Encoding for EAs:

    - Biomorphs, The Blind Watchmaker(R. Dawkins)- Graph encoding for animated 3D creatures (K. Sims)- L-Systems: plant-like structures, architectural floor design, tables, locomoting robots

    (C.Jacob, G. Ochoa, G. Hornby & J. Pollack, and others)

    - Cellular automata rules to produce 2D shapes (H. de Garis)- Context rules to produce 2D tiles (P. Bentley and S. Kumar)- Cellular encoding for artificial neural networks (F. Gruau)- Graph generating grammar for artificial neural networks (H. Kitano)

    Evolving Plant-like Structures:

    - Alife system for simulating the evolution of artificial plants- Genotype: single ruled bracketed D0L-systems.

    L-system: w: F, p: F F[-F]F[+F][F] Chromosome: F[-F]F[+F][F]

    - Phenotype: 2D branching structures, resulting from derivation and graphic interpretationof L-systems

    - Genetic Operators: Recombination and mutation operators that preserve the syntacticstructure of rules

    - Selection Automated: fitness Function inspired by evolutionary hypothesis concerning the

    factors that have had the greatest effect on plant evolution.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    21/28

    21

    Interactive: allowing the user to direct evolution towards preferred phenotypesIt is difficult of automatically measuring the aesthetic visual success of simulated objects or

    images. In most previous work the fitness is provided through visual inspection by a human.

    Automated Selection

    - Hypotheses about plant evolution (K.Niklas, 1985): Plants with branching patterns that gather the most light can be predicted to be the

    most successful (photosynthesis).

    Evolution of plants was driven by the need to reconcile the ability to supportvertical branching structures

    - Analytic procedure, components: (a) phototropism (growth movement of plants in response to stimulus of light), (b) bilateral symmetry, (c) proportion of branching points.

    Developmental rules for Neural Networks

    Firstly,biological neural networks:- there is simply not enough information in all our DNA to specify all the architecture, the

    connections within our nervous systems.

    - so DNA (with other factors) must provide a developmental 'recipe' which in some sense(partially) determines nervous system structure and hence contributes to our behaviour.

    Secondly, artificial neural networks (ANNs):

    - we build robots or software agents with ANNs which act as their nervous system orcontrol system.

    - Alternatives: (1) Design, (2) Evolve ANN architecture.- Evolving: (2.1) Direct encoding, (2.2) Generative encoding- Early References: Frederick Gruau, and Hiroaki Kitano.- Gruau invented 'Cellular Encoding', with similarities to L-Systems, and used this for

    evolutionary robotics.

    - Kitano invented a 'Graph Generating Grammar.: A Graph L-System that generates not a'tree', but a connectivity matrix for a network.

    Evolutionary Approach Conclusions (based on Hornby et. al):

    - Main criticism for the use of evolutionary approaches for design: it is doubtful whether itwill reach the high complexities necessary for real applications.

    - Since the search space grows exponentially with the size of the problem, evolutionaryapproaches with direct encoding will not scale to large designs.

    - Generative encoding (i.e. a grammatical encoding that specifies how to construct adesign) can achieve greater scalability through self-similar and hierarchical structure.

    - Trough reuse of parts generative encoding is a more compact encoding of a solution.The logical depth of a system:A system should be called complex, or logically deep, if that

    system can be generated by a few simple rules, but those rules require a long time to run. If the

    definition of logical depth uses a classical computer then the list of factors has high logical depth

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    22/28

    22

    Modelling Sequential Data (time series):

    Classic approaches to time-series prediction

    - Linear models: ARIMA(auto-regressive integrated moving average),ARMAX(autoregressive moving average exogenous variables model)

    - Nonlinear models: neural networks, decision treesProblems with classic approaches

    - prediction of the future is based on only a finite window- its difficult to incorporate prior knowledge- difficulties with multi-dimensional inputs and/or outputs

    State-space models

    - Assume there is some underlying hidden state of the world(query) that generates theobservations(evidence), and that this hidden state evolves in time, possibly as a function

    of our inputs

    - The belief state: our belief on the hidden state of the world given the observations up tothe current time y1:tand our inputs u1:tto the system, P( X | y1:t, u1:t)

    - Two most common state-space models: Hidden Markov Models(HMMs) and KalmanFilter Models(KFMs)

    - a more general state-space model: dynamic Bayesian networks(DBNs)State-space Models: Representation

    Any state-space model must define a prior P(X1) and a state-transition function, P(Xt| Xt-1) , and

    an observation function, P(Yt| Xt).

    Assumptions:

    - Models are first-order Markov, i.e., P(Xt| X1:t-1) = P(Xt| Xt-1)- observations are conditional first-order Markov P(Yt| Xt, Yt-1) = P(Yt| Xt)- Time-invariant or homogeneous

    Representations:

    - HMMs: Xtis a discrete random variables- KFMs: Xtis a vector of continuous random variables- DBNs: more general and expressive language for representing state-space models

    State-space Models: Inference

    A state-space model defines how Xtgenerates Yt and Xt. The goal of inference is to infer the

    hidden states(query) X1:tgiven the observations(evidence) Y1:t.

    Inference tasks:

    - Filtering(monitoring): recursively estimate the belief state using Bayes rule predict: computing P(Xt| y1:t-1) updating: computing P(Xt| y1:t) throw away the old belief state once we have computed the prediction(rollup)

    - Smoothing: estimate the state of the past, given all the evidence up to the current time Fixed-lag smoothing(hindsight): computing P(Xt-l| y1:t) where l > 0 is the lag

    - Prediction: predict the future

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    23/28

    23

    Lookahead: computing P(Xt+h| y1:t) where h > 0 is how far we want to look ahead- Viterbi decoding: compute the most likely sequence of hidden states given the data

    MPE(abduction): x*1:t= argmax P(x1:t| y1:t)State-space Models: Learning

    Parameters learning(system identification) means estimating from data these parameters that are

    used to define the transition model P( Xt| Xt-1 ) and the observation model P( Yt| Xt )

    The usual criterion is maximum-likelihood(ML)

    The goal of parameter learning is to compute

    - *ML= argmax P( Y| ) = argmax log P( Y| )- Or *MAP= argmax log P( Y| ) + logP() if we include a prior on the parameters- Two standard approaches: gradient ascent and EM(Expectation Maximization)- Structure learning: more ambitious

    HMM: Hidden Markov Model

    One discrete hidden node and one discrete or continuous observed node per time slice. X: hidden variables Y: observations Structures and parameters remain same over time Three parameters in a HMM:

    The initial state distribution P( X1 ) The transition model P( Xt| Xt-1) The observation model P( Yt| Xt)

    HMM is the simplest DBN a discrete state variable with arbitrary dynamics and arbitrary measurements

    KFL: Kalman Filter Model

    KFL has the same topology as an HMM all the nodes are assumed to have linear-Gaussian distributions

    x(t+1) = F*x(t) + w(t),

    - w ~ N(0, Q) : process noise, x(0) ~ N(X(0), V(0))

    y(t) = H*x(t) + v(t),

    - v ~ N(0, R) : measurement noise

    Also known as Linear Dynamic Systems(LDSs) a partially observed stochastic process with linear dynamics and linear observations: f( a + b) = f(a) + f(b)

    both subject to Gaussian noise KFL is the simplest continuous DBN

    a continuous state variable with linear-Gaussian dynamics and measurementsDBN: Dynamic Bayesian networks

    DBNs are directed graphical models of stochastic process DBNs generalize HMMs and KFLs by representing the hidden and observed state in

    terms of state variables, which can have complex interdependencies

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    24/28

    24

    The graphical structure provides an easy way to specify these conditional independencies A compact parameterization of the state-space model An extension of BNs to handle temporal models Time-invariant: the term dynamic means that we are modeling a dynamic model, not

    that the networks change over time

    Definition: a DBN is defined as a pair (B0, B), where B0defines the prior P(Z1), and is a

    two-slice temporal Bayes net(2TBN) which defines P(Zt | Zt-1) by means of a DAG(directed

    acyclic graph) as follows:

    Z(i,t) is a node at time slice t, it can be a hidden node, an observation node, or a controlnode(optional)

    Pa(Z( i, t)) are parent nodes of Z(i,t), they can be at either time slice t or t-1 The nodes in the first slice of a 2TBN do not have parameters associated with them But each node in the second slice has an associated CPD(conditional probability

    distribution)

    Representation of DBN in XML format

    //a static BN(DAG) in XMLBIF format defining the//state-space at time slice 1

    // a transition network(DAG) including two time slices t and t+1;

    // node has an additional attribute showing which time slice it

    // belongs to

    // only nodes in slice t+1 have CPDs

    The Semantics of a DBN

    - First-order markov assumption: the parents of a node can only be in the same time sliceor the previous time slice, i.e., arcs do not across slices

    - Inter-slice arcs are all from left to right, reflecting the arrow of time- Intra-slice arcs can be arbitrary as long as the overall DBN is a DAG- Time-invariant assumption: the parameters of the CPDs dont change over time-

    The semantics of DBN can be defined by unrolling the 2TBN to T time slices

    - The resulting joint probability distribution is then defined byDBN, HMM, and KFM

    - HMMs state space consists of a single random variable; DBN represents the hidden state interms of a set of random variables

    - KFM requires all the CPDs to be linear-Gaussian; DBN allows arbitrary CPDs

    N

    i

    i

    t

    i

    ttt ZZPZZP

    1

    1 ))(|()|(

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    25/28

    25

    - HMMs and KFMs have a restricted topology; DBN allows much more general graphstructures

    - DBN generalizes HMM and KFM; has more expressive powerDBN: Inference: The goal of inference in DBNs is to compute: Filtering: r = t; Smoothing: r > t;

    Prediction: r < t; Viterbi: MPE.

    DBN inference algorithms

    DBN inference algorithms extend HMM and KFMs inference algorithms, and call BNinference algorithms as subroutines

    DBN inference is NP-hard Exact Inference algorithms:

    Forwards-backwards smoothing algorithm (on any discrete-state DBN) The frontier algorithm(sweep a Markov blanket, the frontier set F, across the DBN,

    first forwards and then backwards)

    The interface algorithm (use only the set of nodes with outgoing arcs to the next timeslice to d-separate the past from the future) Kalman filtering and smoothing

    Approximate algorithms: The Boyen-Koller(BK) algorithm (approximate the joint distribution over the

    interface as a product of marginals)

    Factored frontier(FF) algorithm Loopy propagation algorithm(LBP) Kalman filtering and smoother Stochastic sampling algorithm:

    importance sampling or MCMC(offline inference) Particle filtering(PF) (online)

    DBN: Learning

    The techniques for learning DBN are mostly straightforward extensions of the techniques forlearning BNs;

    Parameter learning Offline learning: Parameters must be tied across time-slices; The initial state of the

    dynamic system can be learned independently of the transition matrix

    Online learning: Add the parameters to the state space and then do onlineinference(filtering).

    Structure learning The intra-slice connectivity must be a DAG Learning the inter-slice connectivity is equivalent to the variable selection problem,

    since for each node in slice t, we must choose its parents from slice t-1.

    Learning for DBNs reduces to feature selection if we assume the intra-sliceconnections are fixed

    Learning uses inference algorithms as subroutines

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    26/28

    26

    DBN Learning Applications

    Learning genetic network topology using structural EM Gene pathway models

    Inferring motifs using HHMMs Motifs are short patterns which occur in DNA and have certain biological

    significance; {A, C G, T}*

    Inferring peoples goals using abstract HMMs Inferring peoples intentional states by observing their behavior

    Modeling freeway traffic using coupled HMMsSummary

    DBN is a general state-space model to describe stochastic dynamic system HMMs and KFMs are special cases of DBNs DBNs have more expressive power DBN inference includes filtering, smoothing, prediction; uses BNs inference as subroutines

    DBN structure learning includes the learning of intra-slice connections and inter-sliceconnections

    DBN has a broad range of real world applications, especially in bioinformatics.Engineering Biomorphic Systems: Discussions on morphogenesis

    Theoretical/Mathematical/Computational Biology Developing a theoretical and/or

    quantitative model for the structures and processes of a biological system.

    Biomorphic EngineeringApplying methods (structures and processes) of a biological system to

    design artificial systems with a similar or related functionality.

    Attributes of Biological SystemsComplexity. Organization at many scales/levels. Adaptation.

    Growth and development. Reproduction. Evolution.

    Levels of Organization for Biological Systems- Molecules (DNA, RNA, proteins, amino acids, messengers, etc.)- Subcellular structures (membranes, channels, organelles, etc.)- Cells (neurons, blood cells, skin cells, bone cells, etc.)- Cell Assemblies (pancreatic islets, central pattern generatrs, etc.)- Sub-organs and Sub-systems (cortex, spinal cord, arteries, etc.)- Organs (skin, brain, heart, stomach, liver, etc.)- Systems (nervous system, digestive system, immune system, etc.)- Organisms (plants, animals)- Populations- Ecosystems- BiosphereLevels of Plasticity in Biological Systems:

    Adaptation Rapid change to accommodate variations in the environment.

    e.g., change in pupil size with light.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    27/28

    27

    Learning Gradual change in parameters to optimize behavior with respect to regularities in the

    environment. e.g., classical conditioning.

    Development Change in the structure and processes of a single organism over its lifetime.

    Evolution Change in structures and processes over successive generations to maintain and

    enhance fitness. e.g., invertebrate to vertebrate, reptile to bird.

    Aspects of Biomorphicity:

    Function: inference, pattern-recognition, locomotion, conversation, adaptation, learning. Behavior: homing, obstacle-avoidance, walking, mating, seeking sustenance, trail-

    following, chemotaxis, phototaxis, etc.

    Processes: signaling, cell-division, synaptic modification, excitation, inhibition, reaction,catalysis, recombination, mutation, etc.

    Structure: limbed robots, neural networks, artificial limbs, robot bugs, swarms, etc. Information Structure: genes, spike trains, pheromone trails, etc. Development: morphogenesis, pattern-formation, growth, synaptogenesis, differentiation.

    Inception: by copying, splitting, recombination, etc. Evolution: genetic algorithms, artificial life, etc.Examples of Biomorphic Systems:

    Cellular Automata: Discrete cellular lattices where the next state of each cell depends on the

    current states of its neighbors. CAs are used to study self-replication, pattern formation, fluiddynamics, traffic patterns, and in many other applications

    Neural Networks: Adaptive systems based on networks of neurons (brain cells) that comprise the

    nervous system and collectively perform all sensory, cognitive, motor, and control functions in

    multicellular organisms. Neural networks are used in applications such as pattern recognition,

    computer vision, classification, robot control, optimization, and many others.

    Genetic Algorithms: Optimization algorithms that follow the selection-based approach ofevolution.

    Swarms: Systems with large numbers of relatively simple mobile agents, interacting in limited

    ways, with significant and nontrivial group-level order in the system. Modeled after insect

    colonies and bird swarms, these systems have been applied to such problems as network

    optimization, self-assembling or emergent structures, collective transport, etc.

    Animats: Artificial organisms, implemented in software or hardware.

    Artificial Life: The attempt to simulate, design, and implement artificial systems that mimic

    living systems in some nontrivial sense.

    Artificial Worlds: Detailed simulated environments with computationally specified rules,

    mimicking real or imaginary environments inhabited by agents.

    What is Artificial Life?

    - collection of methods for building discrete event simulations with evolving multiple agents- study of the dynamics of living systems, regardless of substrate

    BiologyStudy of CARBON-based life.

  • 8/12/2019 Modelling of complex systems

    28/28

    - Artificial life (A-Life) uses informational concepts and computer modeling to study life ingeneral, and terrestrial life in particular. (Freeman quoting Langton)

    - form of mathematical biologyCharacteristics of Artificial Life:

    - Synthetic Approach: Synthesizes life-like behaviour within computers (or robots)- Emergence: A property of the system as a whole is not contained in any of its parts, but

    results from interaction of the parts. The whole of the system being greater than the sum of

    the parts

    - Self-organization: The spontaneous formation of complex patterns or complex behaviouremerging from the interaction of simple lower-level elements