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Modelling Human-Environment Interactions: Theories and Tools Gilberto Câmara, Tiago Carneiro Pedro...
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Transcript of Modelling Human-Environment Interactions: Theories and Tools Gilberto Câmara, Tiago Carneiro Pedro...
Modelling Human-Environment Interactions: Theories and Tools
Gilberto Câmara, Tiago Carneiro Pedro Andrade
Vespucci Summer School, 2010
Licence: Creative Commons #### By Attribution #### Non Commercial #### Share Alikehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/
"We went to explore the Moon, and in fact discovered the Earth." Eugene Cernan photo: NASA
Deforestation cut by 300% (2005-09)
46% of energy is renewable
Brazil: a natural knowledge economyBest technology in biofuels
World leader in tropical agriculture
A Vision for INPE in the 21st Century
INPE will be a world-class centre in Space and Environment R&D for the tropical region
Brazil will be an environmental power and the first developed nation in the tropics
Agriculture
Energy
Ecosystems
Climate change
Weather and natural disasters
Space technology can add value to Brazil´s natural knowledge economy
Megacities
INPE: CONVERTING DATA INTO KNOWLEDGE
SATELLITESEarth observation, scientific, and data collection satellites
GROUND SYSTEMS
Satellite control, reception, processingand distribution of satellite data
ANALYSIS AND MODELLING
Space Weather, Weather Predictionand Earth System Science
SOCIETAL BENEFITS
Innovative productsto meet Brazil´s needs
DETER: 15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas
Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia
Monday AM Lecture: Modelling human-environment interactions
Hands-on: Creating a cellular automata model in TerraME
Monday PM Lecture: Complex Systems and Emergence
Hands-on: Game of Life, Drainage, Schelling´s Segregation
Tuesday AM Lecture: Game Theory, Evolution of Cooperation
Hands-on: Iterated and Spatial Prisioner´s Dillema
Tuesday PM Lecture: Governing the commons
Hands-on: Management of common pool resources
Wed AM Groupwork: Conceptual models for management of common pool resources
Outline
Runaway greenhouse ::No water cycle to remove carbon from atmosphere
Earth is unique in our solar system in its capacity to sustain highly diversified life
Our Earth is a Unique Planet in the Solar System
Loss of carbon ::No lithosphere motion on Mars to release carbon
EarthHarbor of Life
from Guy Brasseur (NCAR)
By the Year 2050…
9 billion people: 6 billion tons of GHG and 60 million tons of urban pollutants.
Resource-hungry: We will withdraw 30% of available fresh water.
Risky living: 80% urban areas, 25% near earthquake faults, 2% in coast lines less than 1 m above sea level.
The fundamental question of our time
fonte: IGBP
How is the Earth’s environment changing, and what are the consequences for human civilization?
Sustainability Science Core Questions
How can the dynamic interactions between nature and society be better incorporated in emerging models and conceptualizations that integrate the earth system, human development and sustainability?
How are long-term trends in environment and development, including consumption and population, reshaping nature-society interactions in ways relevant to sustainability?
What determines vulnerability/resilience of nature-society interactions for particular places and for particular types of ecosystems and human livelihoods?
Source: Sustainability Science Workshop, Friibergh, SE, 2000
Global Land Project•What are the drivers and dynamics of variability and change in terrestrial human-environment systems?
•How is the provision of environmental goods and services affected by changes in terrestrial human-environment systems?
•What are the characteristics and dynamics of vulnerability in terrestrial human-environment systems?
Impacts of global land change
More vulnerable communities are those most at risk
Global Change
Where are changes taking place?How much change is happening? Who is being impacted by the change?What is causing change?
Human actions and global change
photo: A. Reenberg
photo: C. Nobre
source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)
ESSL - The Earth & Sun Systems Laboratory
GDP per Person in Western Europe (1-2000 AD)
from Guy Brasseur (NCAR)
ESSL - The Earth & Sun Systems Laboratory
Perturbations by humans are quasi-exponential
from Guy Brasseur (NCAR)
from Jackie McGlade (EEA)
Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)
Can we avoid that this….
Fire...
Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)
….becomes this?
Deforestation in Amazonia
~230 scenes Landsat/year
simplified representation of a processModel = entities + relations + attributes + rules
What is a Model? Deforestation in Amazonia in 2020?
Computational models
If (... ? ) then ...
Desforestation?
Connect expertise from different fieldsMake the different conceptions explicit
Computational models
Territory(Geography)
Money(Economy)
Culture(Antropology)
Modelling(GIScience)
Connect expertise from different fieldsMake the different conceptions explicit
Modelling and Public Policy
System
EcologyEconomyPolitics
ScenariosDecisionMaker
Desired System
State
ExternalInfluences
Policy Options
Atmospheric Physics/Dynamics
Tropospheric Chemistry
Global Moisture
Ocean Dynamics
MarineBiogeochemistry
Terrestrial Ecosystems
Terrestrial Energy/Moisture
Climate Change
Pollutants
CO2
CO2
Soil
Land Use
Physical Climate System
Biogeochemical Cycles
Human Activities
(from Earth System Science: An Overview, NASA, 1988)
Earth as a system
Slides from LANDSAT
Aral Sea 1973 1987 2000
images: USGS
Modelling Human-Environment Interactions
How do we decide on the use of natural resources?Can we describe and predict changes resulting from human decisions? What computational tools are needed to model human-environment decision making?
We need spatially explicit models to understand human-environment interactions
Nature: Physical equations Describe processes
Society: Decisions on how to Use Earth´s resources
f ( It+n )
. . FF
f (It) f (It+1) f (It+2)
Dynamic Spatial Models
“A dynamical spatial model is a computational representation of a real-world process where a location on the earth’s surface changes in response to variations on external and internal dynamics” (Peter Burrough)
tp - 20 tp - 10
tp
Calibration Calibration tp + 10
ForecastForecast
Dynamic Spatial Models
Source: Cláudia Almeida
Which is the better model?
Limits for Models
source: John Barrow(after David Ruelle)
Complexity of the phenomenon
Un
cert
ain
ty o
n b
asic
eq
uat
ion
s
Solar System DynamicsMeteorology
ChemicalReactions
HydrologicalModels
ParticlePhysics
Quantum Gravity
Living Systems
GlobalChange
Social and EconomicSystems
How do we decide on the use of natural resources?
Loggers
Competition for Space
Soybeans
Small-scale FarmingRanchers
Source: Dan Nepstad (Woods Hole)
Underlying Factorsdriving proximate causes
Causative interlinkages atproximate/underlying levels
Internal drivers
*If less than 5%of cases,not depicted here.
source:Geist &Lambin (Université Louvain)
5% 10% 50%
% of the cases
What Drives Tropical Deforestation?
Human-enviromental systems
[Ostrom, Science, 2005]
Types of goods
Source: E Ostrom (2005)
Institutional analysis
Old Settlements(more than
20 years)
Recent Settlements(less than 4
years)
Farms
Settlements 10 to 20 anos
Source: Escada, 2003
Identify different actors and try to model their actions
Institutional arrangments in Amazonia
Prisoner’s Dilemma: Game Theory
Did you lie to Congress about WMD in Iraq?
Cells (objects)
Question #1 for Nature-Society models
Fields
What ontological kinds (data types) are required for nature-society models?
Resilience
Concepts for spatial dynamical models
Events and processes
degradation
Concepts for spatial dynamical models
vulnerability
Human-environmental models need to describe complex concepts (and store their attributes in a database)
and much more…
biodiversity
Concepts for spatial dynamical models
sustainability
Question #2 for Nature-Society models
What models are needed to describe human actions?
Clocks, clouds or ants?
Clocks: deterministic equations
Clouds: statistical distributions
Ants: emerging behaviour
Statistics: Humans as clouds
Establishes statistical relationship with variables that are related to the phenomena under study
Basic hypothesis: stationary processesExample: CLUE Model (University of Wageningen)
y=a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + ... +aixi +E
Fonte: Verburg et al, Env. Man., Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 391–405
Spatially-explicit LUCC models
Explain past changes, through the identification of determining factors of land use change;
Envision which changes will happen, and their intensity, location and time;
Assess how choices in public policy can influence change, by building different scenarios considering different policy options.
Driving factors of change (deforestation)
Category VariablesDemographic Population Density
Proportion of urban populationProportion of migrant population (before 1991, from 1991 to 1996)
Technology Number of tractors per number of farmsPercentage of farms with technical assistance
Agrarian strutucture Percentage of small, medium and large properties in terms of areaPercentage of small, medium and large properties in terms of number
Infra-structure Distance to paved and non-paved roadsDistance to urban centersDistance to ports
Economy Distance to wood extraction polesDistance to mining activities in operation (*)Connection index to national markets
Political Percentage cover of protected areas (National Forests, Reserves, Presence of INCRA settlementsNumber of families settled (*)
Environmental Soils (classes of fertility, texture, slope)Climatic (avarage precipitation, temperature*, relative umidity*)
source: Aguiar (2006)
Linear and spatial lag regression modelswhere:Y is an (n x 1) vector of observations on a
dependent variable taken at each of n locations,
X is an (n x k) matrix of exogenous variables,
is an (k x 1) vector of parameters (estimated regression coefficients), and
is (n x 1) an vector of disturbances.
),N(~,ε 20 XβY
XβWYY
W is the spatial weights matrix, the product WY expresses the
spatial dependence on Y (neighbors),
is the spatial autoregressive coefficient.
Statistics: Humans as cloudsMODEL 7: R² = .86
Variables Description stb p-level
PORC3_ARPercentage of large farms, in terms of area 0,27 0,00
LOG_DENS Population density (log 10) 0,38 0,00
PRECIPIT Avarege precipitation -0,32 0,00
LOG_NR1Percentage of small farms, in terms of number (log 10) 0,29 0,00
DIST_EST Distance to roads -0,10 0,00
LOG2_FER Percentage of medium fertility soil (log 10) -0,06 0,01
PORC1_UC Percantage of Indigenous land -0,06 0,01
Statistical analysis of deforestation
source: Aguiar (2006)
CLUE modeling framework
Demand scenarios
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year
Rat
e (k
m2/
year
)
Decreasing
Baseline
Increasing
25 x 25 km2
100 x 100 km2
100 x 100 km2
Scenario exploration: linking to process knowledge
Cellular databaseconstruction
Exploratory analysisand
selection of subset of variables
Porto Velho-Manaus
BR 163Cuiabá-Santarém
São Felix/Iriri
ApuíHumaitáBoca do Acre
SantarémManaus-Boa Vista
Aripuanã
Scenario exploration
Scenarios for deforestation in Amazonia (2020)
Agents as basis for complex systems
Agent: flexible, interacting and autonomous
An agent is any actor within an environment, any entity that can affect itself, the environment and other agents.
Agent-Based Modelling
Goal
Environment
Representations
Communication
ActionPerception
Communication
source: Nigel Gilbert
Agents: autonomy, flexibility, interaction
Synchronization of fireflies
Bird Flocking
No central authority: Each bird reacts to its neighbor
Bottom-up: not possible to model the flock in a global manner. It is necessary to simulate the INTERACTION between the individuals
Requirement #2 for Nature-Society models
Models need to support both statistical relations (clouds) and agents (ants)
[Andrade-Neto et al., 2008]
Question #3 for Nature-Society models
What types of spatial relations exist in nature-society models?
Rondonia 1975 1986
Natural space is (usually) isotropicSocietal space is mostly anisotropic
Which spatial objects are closer?
Societal spaces are anisotropic
Which cells are closer?
[Aguiar et al., 2003]
Euclidean space Open network Closed network
D2
D1
Requirement #3 for Nature-Society models: express anisotropy explicitly
[Aguiar et al., 2003]
Question #4 for Nature-Society models
How do we combine independent multi-scale models with feedback?
Models: From Global to Local
Athmosphere, ocean, chemistry climate model (resolution 200 x 200 km)
Atmosphere only global climate model(resolution 50 x 50 km)
Regional climate model(resolution 10 x 10 km)
Hydrology, VegetationSoil Topography (e.g, 1 x 1 km)
Regional land use changeSocio-economic changesAdaptation (e.g., 100 x 100 m)
National level - the main markets for Amazonia products (Northeast and São Paulo) and the roads infrastructure network;
Regional level - for the whole Brazilian Amazonia, 4 million km2;
Local level - for a hot-spot of deforestation in Central Amazonia, the Iriri region, in São Felix do Xingu, Pará State
grid of 25 x 25 km2
grid of 1 x 1 km2
Nature-Society models should be multi-scale, multi-approach
[Moreira et al., 2008]
Not all multiscale models have nested grids
Environmental Modeler [Engelen, White and Nijs, 2003]
CLUE model [Veldkamp and Fresco, 1996]
Multi-scale modelling: hierarchical relations need to be described
Requirement #4 for Nature-Society models: support multi-scale modelling using explicit relationships
Express explicit spatial relationships between individual objects in different scales [Moreira et al., 2008]
[Carneiro et al., 2008]
Question #5 for Nature-Society models
Small Farmers Medium-Sized Farmers
photos: Isabel Escada
How can we express behavioural changes in human societies?
When a small farmer becomes a medium-sized one, his behaviour changes
Old Settlements(more than
20 years)
Recent Settlements(less than 4
years)
Farms
Settlements 10 to 20 anos
Societal systems undergo phase transitionsIsabel Escada, 2003
[Escada, 2003]
Requirement #5 for Nature-Society models: Capture phase transitions
Newly implanted
Deforesting
Slowing down
latency > 6 years
Deforestation > 80%
Small Farmers
Iddle
Year of creation
Deforestation = 100%
Deforesting
Slowing downIddle
Year of creation
Deforestation = 100%
Deforestation > 60%
Medium-Sized Farmers
photos: Isabel Escada
TerraME: Computational environment for developing nature-society models
Cell Spaces
Support for cellular automata and agents
TerraME: Modular modelling tool[Carneiro, 2006]
TerraME´s way: Modular components
Describe spatial structure
1:32:00 Mens. 11.
1:32:10 Mens. 32.
1:38:07 Mens. 23.
1:42:00 Mens.44.. . .return value
true
1. Get first pair 2. Execute the ACTION
3. Timer =EVENT
4. timeToHappen += period
Describe temporal structure
Newly implanted
Deforesting
Slowing down
latency > 6 years
Iddle
Year of creation
Deforestation = 100%
Describe rules of behaviour Describe spatial relations
[Carneiro, 2006]
Spatial structure in TerraME: Cell Spaces integrated with databases
Spatial Relations in TerraME
Spatial relations between entities in a nature-societal model are expressed by a generalized proximity matrix (GPM)
44434241
34333231
24232221
14131211
wwww
wwww
wwww
wwww
W
[Moreira et al., 2008]
TerraME: multi-scale modelling using explicit relationships
44434241
34333231
24232221
14131211
wwww
wwww
wwww
wwww
W
Generalized proximity matrices express explicit spatial relationships between individual objects in different scales
up-scaling
Scale 1
Scale 2
father
children
[Moreira et al., 2008][Carneiro et al., 2008]
TerraME uses hybrid automata to represent phase transitions
State A
Flow Condition
State B
Flow ConditionJump condition
A hybrid automaton is a formal model for a mixed discrete continuous system (Henzinger, 1996)
Hybrid Automata = state machine + dynamical systems
Hybrid automata: simple land tenure model
STATE Flow Condition Jump Condition Transition
SUBSISTENCE Deforest 10% of land/year Deforest > 60% CATTLE
CATTLE Extensive cattle raising Land exhaustion ABANDONMENT
ABANDONMENT Forest regrowth Land revision RECLAIM
RECLAIM Public repossession Land registration LAND REFORM
LAND REFORM Land distribution Farmer gets parcels
SUBSISTENCE
SUBSISTENCEDeforest 20%/year
Farmer gets parceldeforest>=60%
Land exhaustion
CATTLEExtensive cattle raising
ABANDONMENTRegrowth
RECLAIMPublic repossession
Land revision
LAND REFORMredistribution
Land registration
TerraME Software Architecture
TerraLib
TerraLib TerraME Framework
C++ Signal Processing
librarys
C++ Mathematical
librarys
C++ Statistical
librarys
TerraME Virtual Machine
TerraME Compiler
TerraME Language
RondôniaModel São Felix Model Amazon Model Hydro Model
[Carneiro, 2006]
Lua and the Web
Where is Lua?
Inside Brazil Petrobras, the Brazilian Oil Company Embratel (the main telecommunication company in Brazil) many other companies
Outside Brazil Lua is used in hundreds of projects, both commercial and academic CGILua still in restricted use
until recently all documentation was in Portuguese
TerraME Programming Language: Extension of LUA
LUA is the language of choice for computer games
[Ierusalimschy et al, 1996]source: the LUA team
TerraME programming environment
Eclipse & LUA plugin• model description• model highlight syntax
TerraView• data acquisition• data visualization• data management• data analysis
TerraLibdatabase
da
ta
Model source code
MODEL DATA
mod
el
• model syntax semantic checking• model execution
TerraME INTERPRETER
LUA interpreter
TerraME framework
TerraME/LUA interface
model d
ata
[Carneiro, 2006]