Modeling volcanic and marine emissions for Hawaii Air Quality Forecast

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Daniel Tong*, Pius Lee, Rick Saylor, Mo Dan, Ariel Stein, Daewon ByunNOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), Silver Spring, MD 20910

Xiaoming Liu and Kent HughesNOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), Camp Spring, VA

Andrew Jeff Sutton, Tamar Elias, James KauahikauaUSGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hawaii National Park, HI 96718

* Email: daniel.tong@noaa.gov

Acknowledge: Jianping Huang of NCEP for helps with model simulations; US EPA and CSC for providing emission inventories and spatial surrogates; NOAA ARL AQUEST group for technical support and discussion.

Hawaii Air Quality Forecast

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Hawaii domain:area, mobile, point;biogenic emissions;Sea-salt emissions;Volcanic emissions?Marine emissions?

04/20/23 Air Resources Laboratory 3More details at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/AQChangelogOE.html

Anthropogenic Emission: Area, mobile, and point emissions based on EPA NEI 2005

Natural Emission: Biogenic emissions by BEIS 3.14 and USGS LULC data (H. Kim); Sea-salt emissions along coast lines (B. Wang);

Anthropogenic & biogenic Emission in Hawaii

A Review of Approaches for Marine Isoprene Emissions

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Shaw et al. (2003):

EFVaChlEiso **][

Palmer & Shaw (2005):

)*(* AWASiso CHCKE

0)/*( MIXMLASbioXiiW LZkkCkCP

Gantt et al. (2009):

max

0max **][**H

isoiso PdhFaChlHSAE

Eiso - Isoprene emission;

[Chl-a] - Isoprene emission;

V – euphotic water volume;

EF – Emission factor;

kAS – exchange coeff.;

CW – isop. conc. in water

H – Henry’s law constant;

CA – isop. conc. in the air

P – isoprene production;

Hmax – euphotic zone height;

ZML – mixing layer height;

ki – chemical reaction rate for oxidant i;

kbio – bacterial loss rate;

LMIX – loss due to downward mixing;

Estimating marine Isoprene Emissions

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)*(* AWASiso CHCKE

Overall emission flux into the atmosphere (Palmer and Shaw, 2005):

WASiso CKE *

Determine CW:

MLASBIOLXii

MIXW ZkkCk

LPC

/

max

max

0

2

/

)ln(*

HkkCk

LdhPAREFC

ASBIOLXii

MIX

H

W

(Palmer and Shaw, 2005) (Revised based on Gantt et al.)

Derive Hmax: )/)5.2

ln((max 4900

KI

H (Gantt et al. 2009)

I0 – ground radiatioin; K490 – defuse attenuation coefficient in water

6

Chlorophyll-a and K490 Sensor/Satellite: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua Data Processing Levels (NOAA CoastWatch http://coastwatch.noaa.gov):

- Level 1: NOAA obtains data from NASA GSFC in 5-minute granules, and process to geolocated, calibrated radiances

- Level 2: Processed to derived MODIS data products (Chl-a, K490, nLw, etc.)- Level 3: Products are mapped to the CoastWatch geographic regions

Algorithms (NOAA CoastWatch):– Chlorophyll-a concentration: OC3 Algorithm– Diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (K490): J. Mueller Algorithm

Chlorophyll -a K490

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Sensitivity to input parameter: K490

max

0

2)ln(**][max**H

dhIEFaChlHSAP

)/)5.2

ln((max 4900

KI

H

Raw Daily [Chl-a] and K490 K490 cut-off (= 0.016)

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Sensitivity to input parameter: [Chl-a]

Daily [Chl-a] and K490 Monthly [Chl-a] and K490

Using monthly, instead of daily, average [Chl-a] and K490 reveals larger source area for marine isoprene emissions.

Terrestrial vs. marine isoprene emissions

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Land Emission Marine Emission

(Preliminary Results)

Monthly [Chl-a] and K490;

K490 cut-off (= 0.016);

Hourly ground radiation (I0);

04/20/23 Air Resources Laboratory 10A pulse of magma moving through Kīlauea's east rift zone

Volcano SO2 Emissions in Hawaii

Kilauea Volcano over the Hawaii Island

04/20/23 Air Resources Laboratory 11(Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov)

Methodology for Modeling Volcanic Emissions

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In-Situ SO2 Measurement

Daily web update

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

Emission Processing

Pre-processor

NOAA Air Resources Lab

SO2 measurementCorrelation Spectrometer (COSPEC);

Simple plume rise: Distributed from ground to 100 m above;

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Multiple and moving emitting points;

Emitting point below surface;

Dynamic magma movement;

Difficult to implement plume rise algorithms, such as Briggs (1972).

~130 m

Plume Rise of Volcanic EmissionsMake it simple since we know so little about it…

Kilouea SO2 Emissions

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(Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov)

Model Configurations

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CMAQ CB05-AQ-AERO4 gas, aqueous and aerosol chemistry

Domains 80 x 52 grid cells

Horizontal resolution: 12x12 km2

Vertical level: 22 layers Meteorological inputs

NAM WRF- NMM 12 km Lateral boundary conditions (Fantine Ngan)

GEOS-Chem precursors with Hilo monthly mean ozonesonde

Volcano SO2 emissions (July 24 – 29, 2010): Summit Emissions: 650 - 800 tons/day; East Rift Zone: ~400 tons/day;

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Effects on Air QualitySO2 O3

Sulfate Nitrate H2O2

Concluding Remarks

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Methods to estimate near real-time emissions from two additional natural sources: volcano and marine phytoplankton.

Due to its unique emission pattern and reliable measurements, SO2 emissions from Kilauea volcano can be incorporated into the NAQFC system;

In comparison, marine phytoplankton emissions are more challenging to estimate due to both input data quality and lack of knowledge on how to deal with these uncertainties.