Mike Ielmini National Invasive Species Coordinator USDA Forest Service - National Forest System
Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products
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Transcript of Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products
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Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International
Trade of Forest Products
Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li
U.W. Madison
James Turner
Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ
Jeff Prestemon
USDA-FS, SO
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Background• U.S. forests at risk
– Chestnut blight, early 1900s– Dutch Elm Disease, mid-1900s– Balsam and Hemlock Woolly Adelgids– Sudden Oak Death– Gypsy Moth– Spruce budworm– Oak wilt
• U.S. is largest producer, consumer, importer• Globalization
– GATT-WTO– NAFTA– FTAA
• Growing trade => growing threat• Other countries face same issues
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Objectives
• Losses incurred by producers and consumers due to timber supply reductions caused by invasive species
• Effects of regulations (phytosanitary rules and import bans) on producer and consumer welfare
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Global Forest Products Model
Dynamic Competitive equilibrium
Demand Supply Trade
14 forest products
180 countries
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GFPM Product FlowRaw material Intermediate product Final product
Fuelwood
Industrial roundwood
Other roundwood
Other fiber pulp
Waste paper
Fuelwood
Other industrial roundwood
Sawnwood
Plywood
Particleboard
Fiberboard
Newsprint
Printing & writing paper
Other paper & paperboard
Mechanical pulp
Chemical pulp
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π T
T
T +1
Q T
P T
P T+ 1
Q T +1
GFPM dynamics
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Alternative Scenarios
Status quo projections, 2002 – 2012
Ban on global trade of logs
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Status quo:World plywood consumption
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Year
Thou
sand
cub
ic m
eter
s
Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe
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Status quo: Net Trade of Industrial Roundwood
-120000
-90000
-60000
-30000
0
30000
60000
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Year
Thou
sand
cub
ic m
eter
s
Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe
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Status quo: U.S.ANewsprint
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Year
mil
lio
n t Production
ImportExportConsumption
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Status quo: World Prices
Price of Paper and Paperboard
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
1997
US
$ pe
r met
ric to
n
Newsprint Printing & writing paper Other paper & paperboard
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Effects on industrial roundwood
Cons Prod Import Export
United States 3% -1% -100% -100%
Brazil 2% -1% -100% -100%
China -17% 48% -100% -100%
Indonesia 3% 2% -100% -100%
Japan -43% 18% -100% -100%
Malaysia 9% -3% -100% -100%
EU-15 -5% 7% -100% -100%
Russian Fed 7% -35% -100% -100%
World -2% -2% -100% -100%
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Effects on Sawn woodCons Prod Imp Exp
United States -1% 4% 0% 172%
Brazil -2% 0% 0% 14%
China -9% -65% 20% -33%
Indonesia -1% 4% 0% 15%
Japan -7% -61% 82% 0%
Malaysia -4% 5% 0% 12%
EU-15 -2% -5% 7% -1%
Russian Fed -1% 7% 0% 14%
World -2% -2% 11% 10%
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Effects on Wood Panels
Cons Prod Import Export
United States -2% 2% -4% 73%
Brazil -2% 4% -8% 14%
China -12% -21% 7% -19%
Indonesia -1% 5% 0% 11%
Japan -7% -77% 54% -1%
Malaysia -6% 12% 39% 18%
EU-15 -7% -8% 7% 1%
Russian Fed 0% 20% -17% 66%
World -5% -5% 8% 8%
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Effects on Wood PulpCons Prod Import Export
United States 1% 3% 0% 18%
Brazil 3% 3% 0% 4%
China 6% 1% 6% 0%
Indonesia -1% 0% 0% 1%
Japan -2% -11% 43% -30%
Malaysia 11% 19% 0% ----
EU-15 -4% -3% 1% 3%
Russian Fed 0% 1% 0% 3%
World 0% 0% 4% 4%
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Effects on Paper and Paperboard
Cons Prod Import Export
United States 0% 1% -4% 3%
Brazil 2% 3% -2% 9%
China 0% 5% -12% 10%
Indonesia -1% -1% -6% -2%
Japnan -1% -2% 25% -24%
Malaysia 0% 7% -2% 42%
EU-15 0% -3% 1% -4%
Russian Fed -1% 0% 0% 3%
World 0% 0% -2% -2%
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Effects on prices
World U.S.A
Industrial Roundwood 4% -3%
Sawnwood 7% 5%
Panels 17% 6%
Pulp 8% 23%
Paper and paperboard 2% 2%
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Future Work
• Finish log export ban scenario analysis
• Study effects of treatment costs on trade, production, and prices
• Develop timber supply sub-model to simulate effects of invasive species