Modeling the effects of forest succession on fire behavior potential in
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Modeling the effects of forest succession on fire behavior potential in southeastern British Columbia
S.W. Taylor, G.J. Baxter and B.C. Hawkes
Natural Resources CanadaCanadian Forest Service
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Historical Background
• dry forests in western North America were historically exposed to high-frequency,
low- intensity fire regimes
• favoring the development of grasslands and open stands of fire-tolerant tree species: ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, western larch
• fire suppression, logging and forest grazing have resulted in forest in-growth and
expansion
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Rocky MountainTrench
1900s
1990s
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B.C. Government photos
19521952 19921992
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Issues
• loss of habitat for some wildlife species
• reduction in forest grazing
• decline in forest health
• increased potential for catastrophic crown fires
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Temperature (C)
0
5
10
15
20
Height Above Flame (m)
12
34
5
Temperatures above flame front by fire intensity class
Heat Transfer
h
IT 3/29.3
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0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Critical surface fire intensity (kW/m)
0
5
10
15Crown Base Height (m)
Crown Fire Initiation
*Foliar moisture content = 100%
Crown fire
Surface fire
2
3
4
6
5
Crown fire threshold by fire intensity class
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few planning tools to guide ecosystem restoration and fuels management programs
need to develop techniques to project future change and effects of management practises
Rationale
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Objectives
Develop methods to assess historical change and project future change in:
• forest cover
• fuel conditions
• fire behavior potential
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Study areas
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Methods
crown closure, fuel type, terrain classification map historic and contemporary air photos sample stand characteristics stand projection using PROGNOSIS growth model fire weather climatology and fire behavior normals determine fire behavior potential over time
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CoverClass
Description CrownClosure (% )
FBP System Fuel Type
0 Grassland 0-5 O-1b Standing deadgrass
1 Treedgrassland
6-15 O-1b Standing deadgrass
2 Openforest
16-40 C-7 Ponderosa pineDouglas-fir
3 Closedforest
40-55 C-3 Mature jack orlodgepole pine
4 Denseforest
> 55 C-4 Immature jack orlodgepole pine
Forest and fuel type classification
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DBH
0
50
100
SPH
13 10 15 20 25 30 35 45 55
0 - 5 %
DBH
0
50
100
SPH
13 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
16 - 40 %
DBH
0
50
100
SPH
13 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
> 55 %
DBH
0
50
100
SPH
13 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
6 - 15 %
DBH
0
50
100
SPH
13 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
41 - 55 %
Douglas-firPonderosa pineLodgepole pineWestern larchTrembling aspen
Stand description
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Stand projection
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent Cover
O1234
Crown closure class
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Cover Class (ha)
0 1 2 3 4
FBP System Fuel Type (ha)
Year O-1b O-1b C-7 C-3 C-4
1952 7 055 8 274 9 128 2 602 2 040
1992 3 083 3 840 9 879 5 274 4 804
2032 0 0 3 095 4 791 18 991
Inventory projection
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
MONTH
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Tem
pera
ture
(C
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pre
cip
itati
on
(m
m)
CRANBROOK A Elev 939 m
{22 yrs of observations}
Mean annual temp 5.6 C
Absolute maximum 36.6 C
Mean daily max of the hottest month 25.7 C
Mean annual precip 384 mm
Mean daily min of the coldest month -12.9 C
Absolute minimum 25.7 C
Climatology
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FBP System Crown-fraction-burned (% )
Fuel type < 10 10-50 >50
0-1b 100 0 0
C-7 89 4 7
C-3 75 5 20
C-4 39 9 52
Fire behavior normals
* level ground
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< 10 10 - 50 > 500
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
1952
Normal fire seasoncrown fraction burned class frequencies
< 10 10 - 50 > 500
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
1992
< 10 10 - 50 > 500
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
2032
Fire behavior projection
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Normal fire seasonfire intensity class frequencies
1 2 3 4 5 60
10
20
30
40
Percent
1952
1 2 3 4 5 60
10
20
30
40
Percent
1992
1 2 3 4 5 60
10
20
30
40
Percent
2032
Fire behavior projection
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Results
Grassland and open forest • decreased by 50% during 1952-92• will be eliminated by 2036 without
management
Area of closed forest doubled during 1952-92
Area susceptible to crown fire with >50% CFB
• increased from 7 to 14% during 1956-96• projected to increase to 29% by 2032
* Results are preliminary - regeneration model needs calibration
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• dynamic fuel and fire behavior models
• integrate fire behavior and ignition potential in more sophisticated risk measures
• quantify preparedness and control costs associated with fire risk
• further develop fuel management planning tools
Research Needs
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Fuels Management Planning Tools
Tactical models
• fire behavior and effects • stand projection and simulation
Strategic models
• inventory projection• forest estate • landscape level
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Tactical ModelsFire Behavior Prediction SystemSCORCH Tree Mortality Model
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Tactical ModelsForest Vegetation Simulator (PROGNOSIS)Fuel Dynamics and Fire Effects Model
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FVS Fuel Dynamics and Fire Effects Model Sample Output
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Strategic Models
Simulate forest dynamics and management activities on vegetation growing stock and related attributes
fssimWoodstock
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Acknowledgements
Funding for this project was provided in part by Forest Renewal British Columbia
We would like to acknowledge the cooperation of:BC Ministry of Forests
Cranbrook Forest District, Nelson Forest Region
BC Parks Okanagan District, Thompson River Dist.
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Time for questions ?
Thank you !
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