Modeling Land Use Change in Chittenden County, VT Austin Troy*, Associate Professor,...
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Transcript of Modeling Land Use Change in Chittenden County, VT Austin Troy*, Associate Professor,...
Modeling Land Use Change Modeling Land Use Change in Chittenden County, VTin Chittenden County, VT
Austin Troy*, Associate Professor, [email protected] Voigt*, PhD Candidate, [email protected]/envnr/countymodel
*University of VermontRubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources
AgendaAgenda
8-8:30 continental breakfast8:30-8:45 opening remarks8:45-9:30 presentation on UrbanSim model
and discussion of preliminary model runs9:30-9:45 Q&A9:45-10:00 break10:00-11:00 scenario breakout groups 11:00-11:30 presentation of scenario results
and wrap-up
Team and CollaboratorsTeam and Collaborators
Graduate researchers: Brian Voigt, Alexandra Reiss, Brian Miles, Galen Wilkerson, Ken Bagstad
Co-PIs: Adel Sadek, Breck Bowden, Jon EricksonCollaborating organizations:
◦ Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission◦ Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization◦ Resource Systems Groups, Inc, White River Junction, VT◦ University of Washington Center for Urban Simulation
and Policy Analysis: Paul Waddell, Alan Borning, Hana Sevcikova, Liming Wang
Project SupportProject Support Dynamic
Transportation and Land Use Modeling◦ Funder: USDOT Federal
Highway Administration Integrated Land-Use,
Transportation and Environmental Modeling: Complex Systems Approaches and Advanced Policy Applications. ◦ Funder: UVM
Transportation Center◦ Co Lead Investigator:
Adel Sadek
Research QuestionsResearch Questions
What will land use patterns in Chittenden County look like in 20-30 years?
What effect will future urban development patterns have on environmental quality?
How might alternative policies alter these outcomes?
How can we develop a model framework that effectively integrates the (inter)actions of households, employers, developers, transportation, and the environment?
This project …This project …IS
◦ A model development and integration exercise◦ An opportunity to visualize and assess the range
of land use outcomes resulting from alternative policies in Chittenden County
◦ A chance to explore how modeling tools can fit into the regional planning process
IS NOT◦ An adopted planning tool by any agency◦ An attempt to predict future land use policy◦ Part of the regulatory process◦ An analysis of any immediately proposed policies
Modeling FrameworkModeling Framework
UrbanSim: Land use model - www.urbansim.org
TransCAD (Caliper Corp.): four step travel demand model
Suite of indicators and environmental modulesPlans to also integrate with TranSims (FHWA)
and TransModeler (Caliper, Corp.) agent-based transportation models in coming year. This effort led by Adel Sadek, RSG, Inc and Austin Troy.
The Five D’s of UrbanSimThe Five D’s of UrbanSim
Data-intensiveDisaggregatedDynamicDisequilibriumDriven by
trends and forecasts
Model Coordinator
Database
Scenario Data
Control Totals
TDM
Exogenous Data
Output / Indicators
Modeling with UrbanSimModeling with UrbanSim
Model parameters based on statistical analysis of historical data
Integrates market behavior, land policies, infrastructure choices
Simulates household, employment and real estate development decisions◦agent-based for household and
employment location decisions◦grid-based for real estate development
decisions
from Waddell, et al, 2003
UrbanSim Decision MakersUrbanSim Decision Makers
Grid_ID: 60211
Employment_ID: 427
Sector: 2
Employees: 135
Grid_ID:23674
HSHLD_ID: 23
AGE_OF_HEAD: 42
INCOME: $65,000
Workers: 1
KIDS: 3
CARS: 4
Grid_ID:23674
Households: 9
Non-residential_sq_ft: 30,000
Land_value: 425,000
Year_built: 1953
Plan_type: 4
%_water: 14
%_wetland: 4
%_road: 3
Input DataEconomic
land value, employmentStructuresResidential and non-residential, size, year built
Biophysicaltopography, soils, wetlands, flood plains, water
Infrastructureroads, transit, travel time to CBD, distance to Interstate
Planning & zoningland use, development constraints
Householdsage of head of household, income, race, # of autos, children
Employmentemployment sector, number of employees
Control Totalspeople: total population, # of householdsjobs: # of jobs by employment sector
DATABASE
Land Price
Real Estate Development
Residential Land Share
Accessibility
Mobility & Transition
Location Choice
UrbanSim Model Algorithms
Importance of AccessibilityImportance of Accessibility
Location choice for employers, households is strongly determined by accessibility
Accessibility changes over time
Development follows those preferences
from Waddell, et al, 2003
Land PriceLand Price
Real Estate DevelopmentReal Estate Development
Residential Land ShareResidential Land Share
AccessibilityAccessibility
Mobility & TransitionMobility & Transition
Location ChoiceLocation Choice
• movers• vacant units• probabilities• site selection
Modeling with UrbanSimModeling with UrbanSim
Travel Demand Model
Travel Demand Model
Time Scenario Input Data
DATABASEDATABASE
Land Price
Residential Land Share
Accessibility
Mobility & Transition
Location Choice
Real Estate Development
Residential Land Share
Real Estate Development
Location Choice
Mobility & Transition
Land Price
Accessibility
Indicators
Households by Grid Cell: 2000
Model OutputModel Output
GRID_ID SECTOR_ID EMPLOYEES
77061 8 13
76187 11 256
75916 9 13
75938 13 18
75434 9 3
69171 8 1
68900 9 22
…
68902 8 3
Output database: defines grid cell state
IndicatorsGraphics
◦maps◦charts◦tables
Serv ices2866
Retail Trade1537
Finance432
Construction422
Wholesale Trade355
Standard IndicatorsStandard Indicators
Transport: VMT, accessibilityLand use: vacancy, non-residential sq ftLand value: residential, commercial,
industrialPopulation: total, density, summarize by
area (e.g. block group, TAZ)Households: count, type, incomeEmployment: count, type, sector
Initial model runs: Initial model runs: assumptionsassumptionsDevelopment constraints: limit development in low
density residential zones and cells with high % wetlands, no building on public lands
Employment sector: base year employment data from VT Sec of State business data and Claritas Business data
Households: base year households synthesized from 1990 US Census and PUMS 5% sample
Population and employment control totals from RPC/MPOStarting and ending year: 1990 - 2020Different versions of model
◦ With and without travel model◦ No constraints, minor constraints, significant constraints
199019952000200520102015
Residential Units Per Grid Cell: 1990 - 2015
Constrained by development type + travel model
Residential Units
Constrained by development type, no travel model
Population Density by Town: 1995 - 2015
19952000200520102015
People / Acre
Constrained by development type + travel model
Constrained by development type, no travel model
Environment IndicatorsEnvironment Indicators
Developing sub-modules that use UrbanSim output to estimate environmental impacts◦ Nutrient export (done)◦ Habitat fragmentation◦ Stormwater (Breck Bowden/Mary Watzin)*◦ Mobile source emissions (RSG Inc)*◦ Road particulate impacts (Sarah Lovell)*◦ Carbon footprint analysis (Jen Jenkins)*◦ Energy usage (Troy)**part of UVM Transportation Signature Project 1
UrbanSim Nutrient Indicators Limited constraints, no
travel model The total nutrient load
in 2020 would increase to 62150 kg/yr from 1992 levels (58527 kg/yr)
Calculated from Lake Champlain Basin Program nutrient export coefficients
Increase of 5 residential units in one gridcell equals transition to “urban” land use type
Troy et al. 2007 “Updating the Lake Champlain Basin land use data to improve prediction of phosphorus loading”, Lake Champlain Basin Program
Other Planned Other Planned ComponentsComponentsNetwork Robustness analysis (David
Novak)*“Sketch model” for comparison,
communication, and scenario development (Roel Boumans)*
Complexity/ sensitivity analysis for combined model framework (Adel Sadek, Chris Danforth, Peter Dodds, Jun Yu)*
Integrations with ARIES artificial intelligence-based data mining framework (Ferdinando Villa)
* Part of UVM UTC Signature Project 1
The to do list …The to do list …
This is a model in progress; although it’s running, it will be undergoing many improvements with time:◦Fix commercial sector model◦ Improve multi-city zoning inputs◦ Improve non-residential building data and
per employee square footage◦Review the base year database◦Expand development constraints◦Finalize model estimation◦Perform validation: 1990 – 2000◦Develop scenario data
UrbanSim and Scenario UrbanSim and Scenario AnalysisAnalysis What is a scenario?
◦ Alteration of baseline model inputs and assumptions
Types of changes that can be assessed◦ Zoning◦ Transportation
investments◦ Non-transportation
capital investments◦ State and regional
policy◦ Economic and
demographic changes◦ Behavioral
assumptions
* need TranSims for this analysis
BASE YEAR – business as usual
establish growth
center(s)policy event 1
employment opportunity
employment event
alter transport
infrastructure
investment
increase density
policy event 2
Scenarios: types of things Scenarios: types of things that can be modeledthat can be modeledConstraints to developmentRules for density, use, coverage, zoningMacro-scale transportation network (e.g.
highways, onramps, roundabouts, etc.)Micro-scale transportation network (e.g.
new lanes, turning rules, ITS, speed limits)Placement of public facilities (e.g. hospitals,
schools, courts, parks, arena, airports, etc.)Infrastructure (e.g. sewer, water, electricity)Siting of major employers/employment
centersControl totals
* need TranSims for this analysis
Scenarios: types of things Scenarios: types of things that can be modeledthat can be modeledBuilding assumptions (e.g. square
footage/employee, size of house relative to family size)
Transportation behavioral assumptions (e.g. trip chaining, carpooling, mode share, response of mode share to upgrades in service)
Speculative behavior assumptions (response of developers to new permitting rules, response of commuters and land market to high oil prices, response of shoppers or employers to greatly reduced parking)
* need TranSims for this analysis
Five scenarios for todayFive scenarios for today Based on input from last workshop and
on what we think is technically feasible1. Transportation corridor-oriented
development2. County-wide growth center
implementation3. Investment for increased regional road
connectivity4. Population boom5. Ultra Green
Scenario 1: Transportation Scenario 1: Transportation Corridor-Oriented DevelopmentCorridor-Oriented DevelopmentYour task is to develop specific
recommendations about land use and transportation for three corridors: route 7, route 2 and route 15.
How wide is the “corridor planning area?” This is up to you to decide.
There is a separate map for each corridor. Break into subgroups for each corridor if needed.
Feel free to build on existing corridor plans
Scenario 1: Transportation Scenario 1: Transportation Corridor-Oriented DevelopmentCorridor-Oriented DevelopmentTypes of actions that
could be proposed:◦redefine zoning
district boundaries for the corridors
◦change allowable densities, uses and lot coverage within them
◦Propose major roadway upgrades, like lane additions, roundabouts, divided highways
Scenario 1: Transportation Scenario 1: Transportation Corridor-Oriented DevelopmentCorridor-Oriented Development
◦ Propose pedestrian or bike paths◦ Propose non-infrastructural transportation
upgrades and investments in the corridors, such as changes to public transportation lines and implementation of intelligent transportation systems to improve traffic flow
◦ Propose other capital investments for these areas, like new transit center/stops, government buildings, auditoriums, schools, parks, sewer lines, etc.
Scenario 2: Growth Scenario 2: Growth CentersCentersThis scenario is designed
to imagine what it would look like if the growth center concept was implemented to the greatest feasible extent in Chittenden County
Takes established Williston growth center as given; prospective Colchester growth center boundary is mapped but open to alteration in this exercise
It is up to the group to decide how many growth centers there will be and how large
Scenario 2: Growth Scenario 2: Growth CentersCentersPotential types of detail that could be prescribed
◦ Number, size and boundaries of growth center districts
◦ Sub-districts◦ Allowable uses, densities, lot coverage, zoning,
etc. for centers or sub-districts◦ Transportation network upgrades (lanes,
roundabouts, signals, ITS, etc.)◦ Public transit stops or lines◦ Infrastructure investments (sewer, water, parking
etc.)◦ Changes to allowable uses/densities outside
centers◦ Parking regulations◦ Other capital investments for these areas: transit
center/stops, new parking, government buildings, auditoriums, schools, parks, sewer lines, etc
Scenario 3: Scenario 3: Investment for Investment for Increased Regional Road Increased Regional Road ConnectivityConnectivityParticipants will propose
a set of road network enhancements that would increase connectivity between major corridors at the County level
Put differently: where are locations that are harder to access than they should be?
Can go off of list of MPO potential projects or define new project ideas
Results should be drawn on map and described in notes
Scenario 3: Scenario 3: Investment for Investment for Increased Regional Road Increased Regional Road ConnectivityConnectivityPotential types of prescribed projects
◦ New interstate exits/interchanges◦ Through access to PUDs located between
major corridors, but with access only to one◦ Upgrade of smaller order roads to arterial
capacity◦ Adding east-west connectors between major
north-south corridors (e.g. Route 7, Spear and Dorset, 116).
◦ Adding north-south connectors between major east-west corridors Route 15 and Route 2
Scenario 4: Population Scenario 4: Population BoomBoom Model used for this project takes population and
employment growth forecasts as given. Changes to those forecasts have a large impact on
simulated future land use patterns. Participants will imagine a Chittenden County with a far
larger influx of people than our forecasts predict, due to some unexpected influence (e.g. migrations due to global warming).
New forecasts will include estimates of the demographic breakdown of the new population, plus the employment sectors likely to see increases and reductions in jobs.
To accommodate this added growth, however, zoning will have to change.
The participants in this group will present one or two simple county-wide macro-scale zoning change alternatives that would be expected to accommodate that growth in residents and employment.
Scenario 5: Ultra-greenScenario 5: Ultra-greenThis scenario represents a
hypothetical set of regulations and investments designed to maximize the amount of green space in the County while minimizing the population's environmental footprint.
Be creative: don’t get too caught up in feasibility or practicality
Participants are encouraged to focus on a set of coordinated regional actions
Scenario 5: Ultra-greenScenario 5: Ultra-greenPossible types of policies to consider:
◦ urban growth boundary, ◦ significantly increased densities for
established urban centers,◦ new modes of public transportation, ◦ gas and energy taxes, etc. ◦ open space acquisition
You’ll get a map showing all the large undeveloped parcels and their acreage
We’ll give you a hypothetical cost/acre and a budget to work from
General Breakout Session General Breakout Session GuidelinesGuidelinesTry to be as specific as possibleKeep in mind what can feasibly be simulated
in modeling environmentPresent results after about 55 minutes. Leave
5 minutes for brief changeover to full groupDraw on maps with colored pens to illustrate;
we’ll digitally photograph at end and they can be projected for final presentation
Feel free to use any planning documentsDon’t feel constrained by current land use
regulationsDesignate note taker and keep official notes
to submit to organizersBe creative; don’t feel constrained.
Communicating our resultsCommunicating our resultsYour outputs will be extensively
documented (video, notes, maps)We will write up the details of the
scenarios and post them on our website (www.uvm.edu/envnr/countymodel) within two weeks
Where not feasible, we will so note in the online documentation
We will begin working on developing the scenario inputs in parallel with improving the baseline model
Communicating our resultsCommunicating our resultsThe website will contain information about
updates and improvements in the modelsWe will notify workshop participants when
we have a “stable release” of the baseline model for which we anticipate only minor modifications
At this point we will run the five scenarios defined today and then post the results.
The website will provide detailed results and downloadable data (maps, GIS layers, tables) from the baseline and alternative models.
We invite your involvement in this process