Modeling incoming solar radiation Ehrhard Raschke (Hamburg) Stefan Kinne (Hamburg) Yoko Tsuschima...
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Transcript of Modeling incoming solar radiation Ehrhard Raschke (Hamburg) Stefan Kinne (Hamburg) Yoko Tsuschima...
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Modeling incoming solar radiation
Ehrhard Raschke (Hamburg)
Stefan Kinne (Hamburg)
Yoko Tsuschima (Yokohama)
Stephan Bakan (Hamburg)
With data contributions from GISS and LaRC
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Is it so easy?
In principle the incoming solar irradiance reaching the Top of the atmosphere (ToA) can be computed easily using the principles of spherical geometry and the astro-mechanical parameters (distance Sun-Earth, obliquity of the orbit, perhelion and inclination of the rotational axis), which are determining the Earth‘s orbit around the Sun.
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Summary of possible error sources in computations of the insolation at ToA:
Total solar irradiance (TSI = ~ 1361 Wm-2), solar cycles
Orbital parameters : eccentricity, obliquity, perihelion
Inclusion of a leapday (strictly the tropical year?)
Spatial resolution, time resolution
Definition of sunset and sunrise
Definition of TOA
and
Occasional bugs in the code !
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Monthly zonal anomalies in IPPC models related to ISCCP
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1985 - 1988
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6 weeks with patiently repeated questions to modelers for information
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Deriving Eccentricity and Perihelion from ISCCP s0/S0
Input: ISCCP Daily TOA Full-incoming Solar FLux s0 from our table:
FS0
data\full_isolation.asc
rows FS0( ) 365.0000 cols FS0( ) 2.0000
day# 1->365 Full_insolation at TOA
Daily TOA full-incoming solar s0 at Aphelion, Perihelion and its annual mean S0
i 1 365 s0i FS0i 2
max s0( ) 1413.8225 min s0( ) 1322.4624 S0 mean s0( ) S0 1367.1586
Since s0/S0 = r^2/R^2, where s0 = Daily TOA Full-incoming Solar, S0 = its annual mean, r = daily Sun-Earth distance (in AU) and R = its annual mean = 1 AU as taken now
Earth-Sun distance r AT Aphelion and Perihelion We have:
ris0i
S0
max r( ) 1.0169 min r( ) 0.9835
AB=2a; CD=2b; F1F2=2c, rmax=a+c & rmin=a-c In the ellipse: a
max r( ) min r( )
2 c
max r( ) min r( )
2 b a
2c2
Eccentricity: eec
a ee 0.0167 Eaxctly equal to the correct Earth-Sun orbit's e = 0.0167 now
And our Perihelion and Aphelion (in AU) = 0.9835 and 1.0169, respectively:
Plot the Earth's orbit to Sun j 1 43 tj j 1( ) 0.15 x j a cos tj y j b sin tj
1 0.5 0 0.5 1
1
0.5
0
0.5
1
Earth-Sun Orbit
Sun at one focus
y j
b 1
x j a c 1
Masterpiece by Y.-C. Zhang
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Modelers (e.g. for the IPCC AR4) and also climatologists (ISCCP and SRB) obtain often different results ! Should we tolerate ?
Tild of axis ±0.5 degrees
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CONTROL RUN For Enhanced Insolation For Reduced Insolation
Total cloud cover
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ISCCP minus SRB: Monthly global averages of the insolation at TOA Why do the seasonal differences increase with time ?
Data from ISCCP and SRB projects
-0,25
-0,2
-0,15
-0,1
-0,05
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Global monthly insolation at TOA: ISCCP minus SRB: June 2007
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IPCC 2007
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How are the other radiation climatologies computing the
insolation at TOA?
-.-.-.-
Please don’t forget: There is only one Sun – Earth - System !
Therefore modelers and climatologists should compute the same solar input into the climate
system.
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From G. Schmidt, GISS, 2006
0.5 hours
2.5 hours
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S
S
S
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-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0 6 12 18 24 30 36
SRB-ISCCP CER-ISCCP
Monthly global averages of the insolation at TOA : Jan 01 to Dec 03
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0,08
0,1
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0 6 12 18 24 30 36
ISCCP SRB CERES
Global monthly averages (up-down ratio) of surface albedo (%)
Jan 2001 to Dec 2003