Mathematical and Computer Mode&g Reports 1049

the tactical situations that can develop between two opposing submarines. The kernel of the program suite is the Submarine Interactive Attack Model (SIAM). This is sufficiently versatile that a wide range of scenarios can be simulated, and meaningful statistics for expected submarine performance obtained. Emphasis is placed on the modelling of both the dynamic tactical situations that can evolve in underwater warfare and the tactical decision-making that influences the outcome of submarine operations. Although the techniques have been applied to a specific domain it is believed that they are applicable to a wide range of complex problems.

Key words-Artificial intelligence, defence studies, modelhng, simulation

J. marh. Bd. Vol. 26. pp. 73-92. 1988

J SEPARABLE MODELS FOR AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATION GENETICS

MARCEL OVIDIU VLAD

Bucuresti, Casuta postala 77-49, R.S. Romania

Abstract-This paper is concerned with the applications of nonlinear age-dependent dynamics to population genetics. Age-structured models are formulated for a single autosomal locus with an arbitrary number of alleles. The following cases are considered: (a) haploid populations with selection and mutation; (b) monoecious diploid populations with or without mutation reproducing by self-fertilization of by two types of random mating. The diploid models do not deal with selection. For these cases the genie and genotypic frequencies evolve towards time-persistent forms, whether the total population size tends towards exponential growth or not.

Key words-Age-dependence. separable models, population genetics

J. Policy Modeling Vol. 9. No. 3, pp. 437453, 1987

MODELING HIGH LEVELS OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURES: A VIETNAM

DOUGLAS LEE’ and HERMAN STEKLER*

‘Data Resources Inc. and %dustrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University, Washington, DC 20319-6000, U.S.A.

Abstract-This paper analyzes the behavior of the U.S. economy when the share of GNP devoted to defense is similar to that occurred during the Vietnam War period. The main problem considered was: How to model and evaluate the economic impact of a future Vietnam-like conflict. The Vietnam “increment” was estimated, and these estimates were added to a base-case simulation to analyze the economic effects.

Eur. J. opl Res. Vol. 33. pp. 191-199, 1988

AN ICELANDIC FISHERIES MODEL

THORKELL HELGA~~N and SNJ~LFUR ~LAFSSON

Science Institute, University of Iceland, Dunhaga 3, 107 Reykjavik, Iceland

Abstract-A model has been developed for the Ministry of Fisheries in Iceland which is being used as a decision support tool in fisheries management. With this model predictions can be made about catches of cod and other demersal species several years ahead. Furthermore earnings and costs in the fisheries are calculated. The starting point is the size of the fish stocks in the beginning of the planning period together with the size and classification of the fishing fleet. Changes in the fleet composition are among

M.C.M. 12,8-I