Modeling Forest Management Scenarios Under a Changing Climate in Northern Minnesota
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Transcript of Modeling Forest Management Scenarios Under a Changing Climate in Northern Minnesota
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Modeling Forest Management Scenarios Under a Changing Climate in Northern
MinnesotaMatthew J. Duveneck, Robert M. Scheller, Mark A.
WhiteStephen Handler & Chris Swanston
NASA-MSU
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Introduction• Landis II Modeling
Framework
• Review previous modeling work-RNV, forest restoration and climate change
• North Woods Climate Change Response Framework-Vulnerability Assessment
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Climate Change Effects on MN Forests
Disturbances ClimateChange
ForestsSocio-
economics
Management
from V. Dale et al. BioScience 2001
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Modeling-LANDIS-IILANdscape DIsturbance and Succession
Spatially Dynamic Emphasizes landscape processes Natural disturbance, management and
dispersal
Life History Traits shade tolerance, drought tolerance,
longevity, temperature, nitrogen, seed production-dispersal, fire tolerance, Veg. Reprod.
Typically 1000s – 1,000,000s of hectares, many decades
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Global Circulation ModelClimate Change
Establishment
& Growth(by species and year)
Forest Dynamics
USGS Geodata PortalDownscaled 12 km
PnET-IIEcosystem
Model
LANDIS-II Forest Simulation Model
(Hayhoe 2011)
(Aber et al. 1995)
(Scheller et al. 2007)
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Uncertainty: Modeling Forests under Climate Change
Co2 fertilization Deer, earthworms Climate models Ozone
Understand relative influence of climate and disturbance on regional species composition trends
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Natural Variability and Forest Restoration MN, USA
Boreal hardwood-coniferDry-mesic jack pine-black spruceDry-mesic white pine-red pineLowland coniferMesic birch-aspen-spruce-firMesic white pine-red pineNorthern Hardwood-conifer
Objectives:
RNV Reference forest conditions- Species Diversity- Structural Complexity- Spatial Pattern
Assumptions: Species and Structural diversity maintain biodiversity and functioning forests
Source: White and Host 2000
Derived from MFRC Northeast Minnesota Landscape Plan
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Approach: Use spatially dynamic model that incorporates climate, disturbance and seed dispersal
Forest restoration in a mixed ownership landscape under climate change
Ravenscroft, C., Scheller, R.M., Mladenoff, D.J. White, M.A. 2010.. Ecological Applications. 20:327-346
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Mean J uly Temperature
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Temp
eratu
re (C
)
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
High Emissions Low Emissions Current Climate
Prec
ipitat
ion (c
m)
05
1015
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CURRENT MANAGEMENT:Management Units (10):
Ownership
RESTORATION: Management Units (7): Ecological
land units
- RNV Based
Management Scenarios
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Potential Climatic ChangesBoreal conifers shift north
Aspen-slow decline, birch more rapid
Oak/hickory-dispersal limited
Northern hardwoods expand
White pine-potential increase
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Next Steps-In Progress Climate Change Response Framework-
Model Lake States forests using common data sets
Vulnerability Assessment Model climate adaptive management Connectivity-forest reserves and resilience Funded by Landscape Conservation
Consortium
Robert Scheller & Matthew DuveneckMark White, Chris Swanston, Stephen Handler
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…Scenarios
CurrentClimate
Low Emissions(PCM B1)
High Emissions (HAD A1FI)
NA
NAExpanded Reserves-connectivity
Alternative Silviculture
Current Management
CLIMATE
MAN
AGEM
ENT
Vulnerability Assessment-Northern MN ForestsClimate Adaptive ManagementConnectivity
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Management Scenarios
1. Current Management: Agency specific management plans-2004-2006
2. Climate adaptive: Favor climate tolerant species, mix-uneven-even-aged, increase life history diversity, increase mid-tolerant species
3. Assisted migration: plant southern oaks & hardwoods-overcome spatial -temporal barriers to natural migration.
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Emerging Threat: Climate Change
Current ClimateLow emissionsHigh emissions
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Total Biomass
Current ClimateLow emissionsHigh emissions
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Results: Species Biomass
Current ClimateLow emissionsHigh emissions
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White spruceCurrent
ClimateLow emissionsHigh emissions
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AspenCurrent ClimateLow emissionsHigh emissions
Paper birch
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Current ClimateLow emissionsHigh emissions
White pine
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Current ClimateLow emissionsHigh emissions
Bur oak
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Current Conditions
B1 (Low Emissions) Year 2150 A1FI (High Emissions) Year 2150
CurrentManagement
CurrentManagement
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Summary-50-100 year Range
Gradual loss of boreal species- much greater in high emissions
Increase in temperate hardwoods-much greater in high emissions
Over time-climate influence increases-management decreases
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Acknowledgements
Rodney Johnson-Katherine Ordway Endowment
TNC Minnesota-The Cox Family Fund for Science and Research
The University of Wisconsin-Madison Landscape Conservation Cooperative Portland State University Northern Institute of Applied Climate
Science