Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: An ...€¦ · Modeling Climate Change Impacts and...
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Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: An Analytical Framework and Application in the U.S. Agriculture Sector File Name // File Date // PNNL-SA-##### Scenarios • REF: Reference with no climate impacts • RCP8.5_sprk: Climate impacts (HadGEM‐ES RCP8.5) with standard irrigation tech. and cost • RCP8.5_fld: Climate impacts with low‐cost, water‐ intensive flood irrigation • RCP8.5_drip: Climate impacts with high‐cost, water‐ efficient drip irrigation What we do: We develop an analytic framework for modeling the welfare implications of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation responses using multiple models and methods within an XLRM framework. The pilot study evaluates the economic, environmental, and societal effects of response options for reducing the impacts of water variability in the Upper Mississippi River Basin region of the U.S. agricultural sector. Problem statement: Climate change impacts and adaptation responses occur within complex human‐natural systems and have multi‐dimensional implications for human welfare at local, regional, and national scales. Integrated, multi‐scale modeling frameworks are needed to understand the drivers of vulnerability and evaluate the costs, benefits, and welfare effects of adaptation options. XLRM Framework To evaluate how different adaptation options would affect a range of outcomes, we adopt an “XLRM” framework that identifies exogenous uncertainties (X) and specific adaptation options (L), ties the adaptation options to performance outcomes through modeled relationships (R, ↔) as measured by key metrics (M). No Tiling Tiling Rainfed X X Flooding X Sprinkle r X X Drip X X Framework Benefits • Multi‐dimensional evaluation of the effects of climate change adaptation responses. • Decision‐relevant scale enhances utility of modeling for decision‐makers. Modeled Relationships (R , ↔) • Agricultural yield response to climate change – global econometric response surfaces; EPIC U.S. irrigated/ rainfed yield ratios • Global economic, land, energy responses – GCAM • Basin‐level environmental impacts – SWAT The views and opinions expressed in this poster are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily state or reflect those of the U.S. Government or the Environmental Protection Agency, and no official endorsement should be inferred. Pilot Study: Adaptation in the US Agricultural Sector Adaptation Options (L) • Exposure – drainage/irrigation • Sensitivity – crop, cultivar • Adaptive capacity – government loans, insurance Metrics (M) • Economic, land use – GCAM • Environmental – SWAT • Community resilience – Statistical and other analyses Exogenous Uncertainties (X) • Exposure – GCM/RCP • Sensitivity – yield response, CO 2 fertilization Next Steps • Model water consumption, agricultural and land use responses in GCAM • Link GCAM with SWAT • Evaluate local socioeconomic effects Study Area: Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) • UMRB is critical for regional economy • 2.1 million farms, 900 million acres, over 6 million people in farm households • 92% of all US agricultural exports • Sedimentation has major environmental and economic consequences Initial Results: Tradeoffs between Yields and Environmental Quality from SWAT With irrigation, avg. corn yield increases by 11%, avg. stream flow increases by 26%, and avg. nitrogen runoff increases by 48% -80° -90° -90° -100° -100° 40° 40° -80° -90° -90° -100° -100° 40° 40° 0,E+00 2,E+08 4,E+08 6,E+08 8,E+08 1,E+09 1,E+09 1,E+09 Total Nitrogen Fluxes (kg per year) Total Nitrogen Runoff SP NoIRR 0,E+00 5,E+02 1,E+03 2,E+03 2,E+03 3,E+03 3,E+03 4,E+03 4,E+03 5,E+03 5,E+03 cubic meter per second Streamflow SP NoIrr Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: An Analytical Framework and Application in the U.S. Agriculture Sector Stephanie Waldhoff 1 , Jia Li 2 , Richard Moss 1 , Xuesong Zhang 1 , Jefferson Cole 2 , Alison Delgado 1 , Jay Falk 3 1 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute 2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 3 University of Pennsylvania Sprinkler Irrigation No Irrigation
Transcript of Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: An ...€¦ · Modeling Climate Change Impacts and...
Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: An Analytical Framework and Application in the U.S. Agriculture Sector
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Scenarios• REF: Reference with no climate impacts
• RCP8.5_sprk: Climate impacts (HadGEM‐ES RCP8.5) with standard irrigation tech. and cost
• RCP8.5_fld: Climate impacts with low‐cost, water‐intensive flood irrigation
• RCP8.5_drip: Climate impacts with high‐cost, water‐efficient drip irrigation
What we do: We develop an analytic framework for modeling the welfare implications of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation responses using multiple models and methods within an XLRM framework. The pilot study evaluates the economic, environmental, and societal effects of response options for reducing the impacts of water variability in the Upper Mississippi River Basin region of the U.S. agricultural sector.
Problem statement: Climate change impacts and adaptation responses occur within complex human‐natural systems and have multi‐dimensional implications for human welfare at local, regional, and national scales. Integrated, multi‐scale modeling frameworks are needed to understand the drivers of vulnerability and evaluate the costs, benefits, and welfare effects of adaptation options.
XLRM FrameworkTo evaluate how different adaptation options would affect a range of outcomes, we adopt an “XLRM” framework that identifies exogenous uncertainties (X) and specific adaptation options (L), ties the adaptation options to performance outcomes through modeled relationships (R, ↔) as measured by key metrics (M).
No Tiling Tiling
Rainfed X X
Flooding X
Sprinkler
X X
Drip X X
Framework Benefits• Multi‐dimensional evaluation of the effects of climate change adaptation responses.
• Decision‐relevant scale enhances utility of modeling for decision‐makers.
Modeled Relationships (R , ↔)• Agricultural yield response
to climate change – global econometric response surfaces; EPIC U.S. irrigated/ rainfed yield ratios
• Global economic, land, energy responses – GCAM
• Basin‐level environmental impacts – SWAT
The views and opinions expressed in this poster are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily state or reflect those of the U.S. Government or the Environmental Protection Agency, and no official endorsement should be inferred.
Pilot Study: Adaptation in the US Agricultural Sector
Adaptation Options (L)• Exposure –
drainage/irrigation• Sensitivity – crop, cultivar• Adaptive capacity –
government loans, insurance
Metrics (M)• Economic, land use – GCAM• Environmental – SWAT• Community resilience – Statistical
and other analyses
Exogenous Uncertainties (X)• Exposure – GCM/RCP • Sensitivity – yield
response, CO2
fertilization
Next Steps• Model water consumption, agricultural and land use responses in GCAM
• Link GCAM with SWAT• Evaluate local socioeconomic effects
Study Area: Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB)
• UMRB is critical for regional economy • 2.1 million farms, 900 million acres, over 6 million people in farm households
• 92% of all US agricultural exports• Sedimentation has major environmental and economic consequences
Initial Results: Tradeoffs between Yields and Environmental Quality from SWAT
With irrigation, avg. corn yield increases by 11%, avg. stream flow increases by 26%, and avg. nitrogen runoff increases by 48%
-80°
-90°
-90°
-100°
-100°
40°
40°
-80°
-90°
-90°
-100°
-100°
40°
40°
0,E+00
2,E+08
4,E+08
6,E+08
8,E+08
1,E+09
1,E+09
1,E+09
Total N
itrogen Fluxes (kg per year)
Total Nitrogen Runoff
SP NoIRR
0,E+00
5,E+02
1,E+03
2,E+03
2,E+03
3,E+03
3,E+03
4,E+03
4,E+03
5,E+03
5,E+03
cubic m
eter per second
Streamflow
SP NoIrr
Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: An Analytical Framework and Application in the U.S. Agriculture SectorStephanie Waldhoff1, Jia Li2, Richard Moss1, Xuesong Zhang1, Jefferson Cole2, Alison Delgado1, Jay Falk31 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 3 University of Pennsylvania
Sprinkler Irrigation No Irrigation
