Modeling and Visualizing Species MovementModeling and Visualizing Species Movement

Presented at: NASA Joint Science Workshop onPresented at: NASA Joint Science Workshop onBiodiversity, Terrestrial Ecology, and Applied ScienceBiodiversity, Terrestrial Ecology, and Applied Science

College Park, Maryland, August 21-25, 2006College Park, Maryland, August 21-25, 2006

Funding: NASA NCC2-1186 & NCC13-03009, NSF DEB 0074444 & DEB-0413570, and NPS

Fred WatsonFred Watson11

Simon CornishSimon Cornish11

Bob GarrottBob Garrott22

PJ WhitePJ White3 3

Rick WallenRick Wallen33

Susan AlexanderSusan Alexander11

Wendi NewmanWendi Newman11

Thor AndersonThor Anderson11

Jon DetkaJon Detka11

Jason BruggemanJason Bruggeman22

11California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay22Montana State University BozemanMontana State University Bozeman

33National Park ServiceNational Park Service

National Parks ServiceNational Parks Servicebison monitoring & management activitiesbison monitoring & management activities

A selection of productsA selection of productsin the pipelinein the pipeline

• Landscape visualization kiosk– Canyon Visitor Education Center

• Real-time snowpack modeling– Information that supports bison management at the boundary

• Landscape inputs to wildlife studies– The hard science upon which policy is based

• A model for predicting species movement– Potential contributions to any application where species move:

• biodiversity• invasive species• ecological forecasting• disease vectors

Landscape visualization kioskLandscape visualization kiosk

Real-time snowpack modelingReal-time snowpack modeling

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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Sn

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Gardiner area Mammoth area

Swan area Blacktail area

Landscape model (snowpack)Landscape model (snowpack)helps inform decision on when to release bisonhelps inform decision on when to release bison

Optimal time for release?

The cold face of The cold face of collaborationcollaboration

Landscape inputs to wildlife studiesLandscape inputs to wildlife studies

Pr( Use of location by species )

=

f ( Landscape covariates,,,Temporal covariates,,, )

Landscape inputs to wildlife studiesLandscape inputs to wildlife studies

Probability of bison Probability of bison corridor travelcorridor travel

(Bruggeman et al., submitted)(Bruggeman et al., submitted)

Some false positivesSome false positives

Probability of bison Probability of bison corridor travelcorridor travel

(Bruggeman et al., submitted)(Bruggeman et al., submitted)

Bison distribution & Bison distribution & landscape covariateslandscape covariates

VegetationVegetation

SlopeSlope

SnowpackSnowpack

Bison utilization distribution:Bison utilization distribution:Habitat-selection analysisHabitat-selection analysis

using standard Resource Selection Functions (RSFs)using standard Resource Selection Functions (RSFs)

Two paradigmsTwo paradigms

1. Pr( Use ) =

f ( Landscape covariates )

2. Pr( Use ) =

f (Distance to previous locations)

Two paradigmsTwo paradigms

A new approach:A new approach:Selective Computational Diffusion (SCD)Selective Computational Diffusion (SCD)

Pr( Use here ) =Pr( Use next door ) * f ( Landscape here )

Iterated many times (computationally demanding)

Comparison Comparison of of

approachesapproaches

Taking SCD out on the road(so to speak!)

--- Observed movement--- Predicted movement