Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)
-
Upload
freya-franklin -
Category
Documents
-
view
21 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)
![Page 1: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)
Joe Cordell
Spencer Timmons
Michael Fleischmann
![Page 2: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview
Background Problem Abstract Network Overview (Nodes, Arcs) Mathematical Model Scenarios Results Conclusions Further Work Video Link
2
![Page 3: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Background
State of Alabama Major Cities: Birmingham, Montgomerey, Huntsville,
Mobile, Tuscaloosa Population: 4.7 million
Average 23 Tornados Per Year $13 million in average annual damages
3
![Page 4: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Background
Tornado Outbreak on April 27th 2011 165 tornados across the
United States 248 fatalities Over $16 billion in
damages over 3 days Listed by NOAA as the
fourth deadliest in United States history
4
![Page 5: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
April 27th, 2011 – Tornados
62 Tornados in Alabama alone
2219 injuries 192 fatalities Only the second day in
history that there were three or more F5 or EF5 tornadoes.
5
![Page 6: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Background
Cordova Population: 2260 Two tornados Four fatalities
6
![Page 7: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Problem Abstract
Relief supply flow as a Min-Cost Flow Model Goal: To supply damaged cities in the least
amount of time and determine if prepositioning of supplies will affect total travel time
Key modifications to the basic model Randomized delay Interdiction represented by arc delays
Measures of Effectiveness: Total travel time Access to damaged cities
7
![Page 8: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Nodes
8
Huntsville
Birmingham
Tuscaloosa
![Page 9: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Arcs
9
Huntsville
Birmingham
Tuscaloosa
![Page 10: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Abstract Network
10
![Page 11: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
April 27th, 2011 – Tornados
11
We Modeled Jasper, AL Area
![Page 12: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Mathematical Model
12
MIN-COST FLOWObjective: Move humanitarian supplies to damaged towns in shortest time where costs are hours of movement required to deliver supplies.
There is a demand for supplies at each damaged town.
MATER looks at worst case scenario by implementation of a “smart” tornado which seeks to damage roads so as to inflict the greatest cost on the operator.
AirPort
City
t
City
sC=0
C=20
C=24
C=5
![Page 13: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Mathematical Model
13
MIN-COST FLOWObjective: Move humanitarian supplies to damaged towns in shortest time where costs are hours of movement required to deliver supplies.
There is a demand for supplies at each damaged town.
MATER looks at worst case scenario by implementation of a “smart” tornado which seeks to damage roads so as to inflict the greatest cost on the operator.
AirPort
City
City
s
-1
C=0
C=20
C=24 tC=50
C=5
1
![Page 14: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1aDestroyed Roads-Jasper Only
14
![Page 15: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
15
![Page 16: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
16
![Page 17: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
17
![Page 18: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
18
![Page 19: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
19
![Page 20: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
20
![Page 21: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1bDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
21
![Page 22: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
22
![Page 23: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
23
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
![Page 24: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
24
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
![Page 25: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
25
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
![Page 26: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
26
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
![Page 27: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
27
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
![Page 28: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
28
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
![Page 29: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
29
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
![Page 30: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
30
Scenario 1cDestroyed Roads-Jasper and Blount Springs
![Page 31: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
31
![Page 32: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
32
![Page 33: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
33
![Page 34: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
34
![Page 35: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
35
![Page 36: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
36
![Page 37: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
37
![Page 38: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2cDelays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
38
![Page 39: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Damaged City City Node Airport Node
Scenario 2c Delays Roads-Jasper, Blount Springs and Oneonta
39
![Page 40: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
40
![Page 41: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
41
![Page 42: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
42
![Page 43: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
43
![Page 44: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
44
![Page 45: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
45
![Page 46: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
46
![Page 47: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
47
![Page 48: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
48
![Page 49: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
49
![Page 50: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Damaged CityPrepositioned Stocks City Node Airport Node
Scenario 3Prepositioned Aid
50
![Page 51: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Scenario 1: Operator Resilience Curve
51
![Page 52: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52
Scenario 1 Results
With roads completely destroyed, tornado quickly cuts off access to affected area. 5 Roads knocked out cuts off Jasper from relief supplies Must then use Chinook helicopters to deliver supplies to
the city, and vehicle delivery for surrounding areas affected less
Most damaging path with fewer destroyed roads is south of the city, taking out the roads from 2 of the 3 airports Supplies then flow through Huntsville Airport Main storm actually followed this path
![Page 53: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Scenario 2: Operator Resilience Curve
53
![Page 54: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54
Scenario 2 Results
With delayed roads, ramp-up in time is more gradual Spikes when moving across multiple delayed roads
Most damaging tornado path remains the same No longer possible to cut off supplies to ground
shipment
![Page 55: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Scenario 3: Operator Resilience Curve
55
![Page 56: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
56
Scenario 3 Results
With supplies pre-positioned instead of flown-in, travel time is decreased, but not significantly Original flown-in supply model does not include flight
time to airport Change in travel time due to proximity of
prepositioned supplies to area
![Page 57: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Prepositioned Supplies Comparison
57
![Page 58: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Model Useability
Model is easily customizable to a given scenario Can be used to show movement of supplies to any
affected city/area Scalable for multiple damaged cities via adding
demands to those nodes Can use flown-in supplies or prepositioned supplies
Useful to quickly formulate delivery plan for FEMA/military responders
![Page 59: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Conclusions
Depending on the city, tornado damage can quickly cut off area from relief supplies if roads are rendered unusable Helicopter delivery via US Army National Guard would then be
necessary Best option for high network resiliency is to keep road
network in good repair and clear of neighboring trees Prepositioned stocks of relief supplies would not make a
large difference Must still get vehicles and personnel to distribute Not much closer than airports
![Page 60: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Potential Future Work
Model entire state or other areas prone to natural disasters
Adjust model to depict hurricane or earthquake damage instead
Analyze changes in results with a more micro-resolution network (more roads, towns)
![Page 61: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
References
Map images and road distance maps.google.com
Past tornado path and strength data: www.tornadohistoryproject.com
City statistics/demographic info: www.city-data.com
Consolidated list of information and articles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
April_25%E2%80%9328,_2011_tornado_outbreak
![Page 62: Modeling Alabama Tornado Emergency Relief (MATER)](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070401/5681363b550346895d9db5a3/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62
Questions?