Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · ·...
Transcript of Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · ·...
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Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion
James BullardPresident and CEO
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
27 May 2008Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Design
Bank of Korea
Views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarilyreflect the views of the Federal Reserve System.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 2: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
The nature of macroeconomics
� William Poole:
� At the start (1998):
� “Macroeconomics is normal times punctuated byadjustment to shocks.”
� At the end (2008):
� “Macroeconomics is adjustment to shocks punctuated bynormal times.”
� Lesson: Adjustment is everything.� Macroeconomy may be vulnerable to “big ticket losses”
during adjustment.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 3: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
The nature of macroeconomics
� William Poole:� At the start (1998):
� “Macroeconomics is normal times punctuated byadjustment to shocks.”
� At the end (2008):
� “Macroeconomics is adjustment to shocks punctuated bynormal times.”
� Lesson: Adjustment is everything.� Macroeconomy may be vulnerable to “big ticket losses”
during adjustment.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 4: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
The nature of macroeconomics
� William Poole:� At the start (1998):
� “Macroeconomics is normal times punctuated byadjustment to shocks.”
� At the end (2008):
� “Macroeconomics is adjustment to shocks punctuated bynormal times.”
� Lesson: Adjustment is everything.� Macroeconomy may be vulnerable to “big ticket losses”
during adjustment.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 5: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
The nature of macroeconomics
� William Poole:� At the start (1998):
� “Macroeconomics is normal times punctuated byadjustment to shocks.”
� At the end (2008):
� “Macroeconomics is adjustment to shocks punctuated bynormal times.”
� Lesson: Adjustment is everything.� Macroeconomy may be vulnerable to “big ticket losses”
during adjustment.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 6: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
The nature of macroeconomics
� William Poole:� At the start (1998):
� “Macroeconomics is normal times punctuated byadjustment to shocks.”
� At the end (2008):
� “Macroeconomics is adjustment to shocks punctuated bynormal times.”
� Lesson: Adjustment is everything.� Macroeconomy may be vulnerable to “big ticket losses”
during adjustment.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 7: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
The nature of macroeconomics
� William Poole:� At the start (1998):
� “Macroeconomics is normal times punctuated byadjustment to shocks.”
� At the end (2008):
� “Macroeconomics is adjustment to shocks punctuated bynormal times.”
� Lesson: Adjustment is everything.
� Macroeconomy may be vulnerable to “big ticket losses”during adjustment.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 8: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
The nature of macroeconomics
� William Poole:� At the start (1998):
� “Macroeconomics is normal times punctuated byadjustment to shocks.”
� At the end (2008):
� “Macroeconomics is adjustment to shocks punctuated bynormal times.”
� Lesson: Adjustment is everything.� Macroeconomy may be vulnerable to “big ticket losses”
during adjustment.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 9: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.
� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzed
complications.� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 10: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.
� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzed
complications.� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 11: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.
� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots ofcomplications.
� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzedcomplications.
� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 12: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.
� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzedcomplications.
� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 13: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzed
complications.
� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 14: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzed
complications.� Result: We do not trust large models.
� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of themacroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 15: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzed
complications.� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 16: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzed
complications.� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?
� In particular: Since the models are about people, are ourdoubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 17: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sources of model uncertainty
� We cannot write the “full” macroeconomic model downand study it.� Much is missing in any analysis.� We understand this.� In studying simpler models, we encounter lots of
complications.� We infer that large models must have a lot of unanalyzed
complications.� Result: We do not trust large models.� Result: We are uncertain about the correct model of the
macroeconomy.
� How can we cope with these doubts?� In particular: Since the models are about people, are our
doubts also their doubts?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 18: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Backrooms and frontrooms� Sargent’s amusing description of academia (backroom) vs
policymakers (frontroom).
� Caricature of the backroom versus the frontroom:
� Backroom: States and parameters are known by all, andpolicy is menacingly complicated.
� Frontroom: States and parameters are known by none, butpolicy itself is easy.
� Backroom: Stationarity assumptions commonplace, butdata are often untrusted.
� Frontroom: Stationarity considered unlikely, but thirst fordata is unquenchable.
� Implication: The focus in the policy world is ondetermining the state of the system by looking at lots ofdata.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 19: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Backrooms and frontrooms� Sargent’s amusing description of academia (backroom) vs
policymakers (frontroom).� Caricature of the backroom versus the frontroom:
� Backroom: States and parameters are known by all, andpolicy is menacingly complicated.
� Frontroom: States and parameters are known by none, butpolicy itself is easy.
� Backroom: Stationarity assumptions commonplace, butdata are often untrusted.
� Frontroom: Stationarity considered unlikely, but thirst fordata is unquenchable.
� Implication: The focus in the policy world is ondetermining the state of the system by looking at lots ofdata.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 20: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Backrooms and frontrooms� Sargent’s amusing description of academia (backroom) vs
policymakers (frontroom).� Caricature of the backroom versus the frontroom:
� Backroom: States and parameters are known by all, andpolicy is menacingly complicated.
� Frontroom: States and parameters are known by none, butpolicy itself is easy.
� Backroom: Stationarity assumptions commonplace, butdata are often untrusted.
� Frontroom: Stationarity considered unlikely, but thirst fordata is unquenchable.
� Implication: The focus in the policy world is ondetermining the state of the system by looking at lots ofdata.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 21: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Backrooms and frontrooms� Sargent’s amusing description of academia (backroom) vs
policymakers (frontroom).� Caricature of the backroom versus the frontroom:
� Backroom: States and parameters are known by all, andpolicy is menacingly complicated.
� Frontroom: States and parameters are known by none, butpolicy itself is easy.
� Backroom: Stationarity assumptions commonplace, butdata are often untrusted.
� Frontroom: Stationarity considered unlikely, but thirst fordata is unquenchable.
� Implication: The focus in the policy world is ondetermining the state of the system by looking at lots ofdata.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 22: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Backrooms and frontrooms� Sargent’s amusing description of academia (backroom) vs
policymakers (frontroom).� Caricature of the backroom versus the frontroom:
� Backroom: States and parameters are known by all, andpolicy is menacingly complicated.
� Frontroom: States and parameters are known by none, butpolicy itself is easy.
� Backroom: Stationarity assumptions commonplace, butdata are often untrusted.
� Frontroom: Stationarity considered unlikely, but thirst fordata is unquenchable.
� Implication: The focus in the policy world is ondetermining the state of the system by looking at lots ofdata.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 23: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Backrooms and frontrooms� Sargent’s amusing description of academia (backroom) vs
policymakers (frontroom).� Caricature of the backroom versus the frontroom:
� Backroom: States and parameters are known by all, andpolicy is menacingly complicated.
� Frontroom: States and parameters are known by none, butpolicy itself is easy.
� Backroom: Stationarity assumptions commonplace, butdata are often untrusted.
� Frontroom: Stationarity considered unlikely, but thirst fordata is unquenchable.
� Implication: The focus in the policy world is ondetermining the state of the system by looking at lots ofdata.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 24: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Backrooms and frontrooms� Sargent’s amusing description of academia (backroom) vs
policymakers (frontroom).� Caricature of the backroom versus the frontroom:
� Backroom: States and parameters are known by all, andpolicy is menacingly complicated.
� Frontroom: States and parameters are known by none, butpolicy itself is easy.
� Backroom: Stationarity assumptions commonplace, butdata are often untrusted.
� Frontroom: Stationarity considered unlikely, but thirst fordata is unquenchable.
� Implication: The focus in the policy world is ondetermining the state of the system by looking at lots ofdata.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 25: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sargent meets the Romers� A forecasting exercise comparing FOMC to staff forecasts.
� Important to stress that forecasts are made "underappropriate policy."
� FOMC has wrestled with this issue for a long time.
� Staff forecasts sometimes made under "constant interestrate" projections, thought to be a "no policy change”benchmark.
� Sargent correct to stress specification doubts, driven bylarge model distrust described above.
� Also due to titles like "Making Macro Models BehaveReasonably"?
� It would be the Romer’s pure forecast exercise if we takethe Prescott view.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 26: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sargent meets the Romers� A forecasting exercise comparing FOMC to staff forecasts.� Important to stress that forecasts are made "under
appropriate policy."
� FOMC has wrestled with this issue for a long time.
� Staff forecasts sometimes made under "constant interestrate" projections, thought to be a "no policy change”benchmark.
� Sargent correct to stress specification doubts, driven bylarge model distrust described above.
� Also due to titles like "Making Macro Models BehaveReasonably"?
� It would be the Romer’s pure forecast exercise if we takethe Prescott view.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 27: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sargent meets the Romers� A forecasting exercise comparing FOMC to staff forecasts.� Important to stress that forecasts are made "under
appropriate policy."� FOMC has wrestled with this issue for a long time.
� Staff forecasts sometimes made under "constant interestrate" projections, thought to be a "no policy change”benchmark.
� Sargent correct to stress specification doubts, driven bylarge model distrust described above.
� Also due to titles like "Making Macro Models BehaveReasonably"?
� It would be the Romer’s pure forecast exercise if we takethe Prescott view.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 28: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sargent meets the Romers� A forecasting exercise comparing FOMC to staff forecasts.� Important to stress that forecasts are made "under
appropriate policy."� FOMC has wrestled with this issue for a long time.
� Staff forecasts sometimes made under "constant interestrate" projections, thought to be a "no policy change”benchmark.
� Sargent correct to stress specification doubts, driven bylarge model distrust described above.
� Also due to titles like "Making Macro Models BehaveReasonably"?
� It would be the Romer’s pure forecast exercise if we takethe Prescott view.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 29: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sargent meets the Romers� A forecasting exercise comparing FOMC to staff forecasts.� Important to stress that forecasts are made "under
appropriate policy."� FOMC has wrestled with this issue for a long time.
� Staff forecasts sometimes made under "constant interestrate" projections, thought to be a "no policy change”benchmark.
� Sargent correct to stress specification doubts, driven bylarge model distrust described above.
� Also due to titles like "Making Macro Models BehaveReasonably"?
� It would be the Romer’s pure forecast exercise if we takethe Prescott view.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 30: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sargent meets the Romers� A forecasting exercise comparing FOMC to staff forecasts.� Important to stress that forecasts are made "under
appropriate policy."� FOMC has wrestled with this issue for a long time.
� Staff forecasts sometimes made under "constant interestrate" projections, thought to be a "no policy change”benchmark.
� Sargent correct to stress specification doubts, driven bylarge model distrust described above.� Also due to titles like "Making Macro Models Behave
Reasonably"?
� It would be the Romer’s pure forecast exercise if we takethe Prescott view.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 31: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Sargent meets the Romers� A forecasting exercise comparing FOMC to staff forecasts.� Important to stress that forecasts are made "under
appropriate policy."� FOMC has wrestled with this issue for a long time.
� Staff forecasts sometimes made under "constant interestrate" projections, thought to be a "no policy change”benchmark.
� Sargent correct to stress specification doubts, driven bylarge model distrust described above.� Also due to titles like "Making Macro Models Behave
Reasonably"?
� It would be the Romer’s pure forecast exercise if we takethe Prescott view.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 32: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understand
when an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.
� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.� Or because of an official statement.� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 33: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understand
when an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.
� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.� Or because of an official statement.� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 34: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.
� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understandwhen an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.
� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.� Or because of an official statement.� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 35: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understand
when an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.
� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.� Or because of an official statement.� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 36: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understand
when an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.
� Or because of an official statement.� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 37: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understand
when an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.� Or because of an official statement.
� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 38: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understand
when an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.� Or because of an official statement.� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 39: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Information flows� Eric Leeper: information flow assumptions and realities
affect interpretations of empirical work on the effects offiscal policy changes.
� Related to Beaudry and Portier concerning the timing ofinformation and changes in beliefs.
� These strike me as big ideas.� Those that follow monetary policy in the U.S. understand
when an old expected interest rate path is discarded andreplaced with a new expected interest rate path.� Perhaps because of a key piece of data.� Or because of an official statement.� The entire path changes.
� Related work by Hamilton.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 40: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
More stability analysis
� I would prefer to see more stability analysis than I did atthis conference.
� Stability is more important than you think as a policy goal.� Policymakers should strive first to avoid the big ticket
losses associated with indeterminacy and expectationalinstability.
� In the recent financial crisis ...
� ... the threat might be best described as the possibility of atransition to a steady state with a low level of financialintermediation services.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 41: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
More stability analysis
� I would prefer to see more stability analysis than I did atthis conference.
� Stability is more important than you think as a policy goal.
� Policymakers should strive first to avoid the big ticketlosses associated with indeterminacy and expectationalinstability.
� In the recent financial crisis ...
� ... the threat might be best described as the possibility of atransition to a steady state with a low level of financialintermediation services.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 42: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
More stability analysis
� I would prefer to see more stability analysis than I did atthis conference.
� Stability is more important than you think as a policy goal.� Policymakers should strive first to avoid the big ticket
losses associated with indeterminacy and expectationalinstability.
� In the recent financial crisis ...
� ... the threat might be best described as the possibility of atransition to a steady state with a low level of financialintermediation services.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 43: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
More stability analysis
� I would prefer to see more stability analysis than I did atthis conference.
� Stability is more important than you think as a policy goal.� Policymakers should strive first to avoid the big ticket
losses associated with indeterminacy and expectationalinstability.
� In the recent financial crisis ...
� ... the threat might be best described as the possibility of atransition to a steady state with a low level of financialintermediation services.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 44: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
More stability analysis
� I would prefer to see more stability analysis than I did atthis conference.
� Stability is more important than you think as a policy goal.� Policymakers should strive first to avoid the big ticket
losses associated with indeterminacy and expectationalinstability.
� In the recent financial crisis ...� ... the threat might be best described as the possibility of a
transition to a steady state with a low level of financialintermediation services.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 45: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.
� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standardrecursive learning exercise.
� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.
� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additionalterm in the actual law of motion.
� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.
� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conferencewould see expectational stability in play there as well.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 46: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standard
recursive learning exercise.
� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.
� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additionalterm in the actual law of motion.
� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.
� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conferencewould see expectational stability in play there as well.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 47: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standard
recursive learning exercise.� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.
� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additionalterm in the actual law of motion.
� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.
� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conferencewould see expectational stability in play there as well.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 48: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standard
recursive learning exercise.� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.
� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additionalterm in the actual law of motion.
� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.
� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conferencewould see expectational stability in play there as well.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 49: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standard
recursive learning exercise.� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additional
term in the actual law of motion.
� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.
� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conferencewould see expectational stability in play there as well.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 50: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standard
recursive learning exercise.� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additional
term in the actual law of motion.� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.
� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conferencewould see expectational stability in play there as well.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 51: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standard
recursive learning exercise.� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additional
term in the actual law of motion.� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.
� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conferencewould see expectational stability in play there as well.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 52: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning� “Recursive least squares” just one in a family of recursive
algorithms.� New Bayesian interpretations exist of the standard
recursive learning exercise.� See Bullard and Suda (2008).
� Idea: Suppose the forecasting community is Bayesianinstead of classical.� Standard analysis goes through, but with an additional
term in the actual law of motion.� E-stability conditions are unchanged.
� Even Bayesian learning implies some type of expectationalstability condition.� Careful readers of Woodford’s paper at this conference
would see expectational stability in play there as well.James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 53: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”
� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning theequity premium.
� Mehra-Prescott.� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought on
by the Great Depression.� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to the
probabilities of states.� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remains
influential for decades.� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowly
to the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 54: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning the
equity premium.
� Mehra-Prescott.� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought on
by the Great Depression.� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to the
probabilities of states.� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remains
influential for decades.� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowly
to the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 55: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning the
equity premium.� Mehra-Prescott.
� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought onby the Great Depression.
� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to theprobabilities of states.
� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remainsinfluential for decades.
� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowlyto the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 56: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning the
equity premium.� Mehra-Prescott.� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought on
by the Great Depression.
� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to theprobabilities of states.
� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remainsinfluential for decades.
� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowlyto the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 57: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning the
equity premium.� Mehra-Prescott.� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought on
by the Great Depression.� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to the
probabilities of states.
� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remainsinfluential for decades.
� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowlyto the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 58: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning the
equity premium.� Mehra-Prescott.� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought on
by the Great Depression.� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to the
probabilities of states.� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remains
influential for decades.
� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowlyto the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 59: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning the
equity premium.� Mehra-Prescott.� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought on
by the Great Depression.� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to the
probabilities of states.� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remains
influential for decades.� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowly
to the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 60: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Learning and robustness� A thought about robustness: Agents could “learn not to be
so pessimistic.”� But consider Cogley and Sargent (2007) concerning the
equity premium.� Mehra-Prescott.� Twisted beliefs of Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark are brought on
by the Great Depression.� Agents are Bayesian learners with respect to the
probabilities of states.� Bad state is rarely visited, so that pessimism remains
influential for decades.� The equity premium is large and declines only very slowly
to the “true” value of zero.
� The 1970s as a similar beliefs-twisting event?
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 61: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.
� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:
� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give a
worse answer to a substantive policy question.� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.
� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the righttrack with our economic concepts.
� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fitthat we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 62: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the
“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:
� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give a
worse answer to a substantive policy question.� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.
� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the righttrack with our economic concepts.
� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fitthat we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 63: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the
“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).
� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give aworse answer to a substantive policy question.
� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.
� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the righttrack with our economic concepts.
� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fitthat we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 64: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the
“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give a
worse answer to a substantive policy question.
� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.
� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the righttrack with our economic concepts.
� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fitthat we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 65: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the
“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give a
worse answer to a substantive policy question.� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.
� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the righttrack with our economic concepts.
� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fitthat we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 66: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the
“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give a
worse answer to a substantive policy question.� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.
� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the righttrack with our economic concepts.
� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fitthat we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 67: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the
“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give a
worse answer to a substantive policy question.� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the right
track with our economic concepts.
� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fitthat we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 68: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
Fitting the data� Professor Sims spoke eloquently about model fit versus the
interpretability of DSGE models.� Good model fit is often taken as absolutely essential in the
“frontroom.” But not necessarily in the backroom:� Kocherlakota (2007, FRB-St. Louis Review).� Argues by example that a better-fitting model can give a
worse answer to a substantive policy question.� What we want is the answer to the policy question.
� I see the recent literature described by Sims as an attemptto reach an intelligent compromise in this area.� The fit to data gives us confidence that we are on the right
track with our economic concepts.� But we do not want to push so hard in getting a good fit
that we lose our economic grounding altogether.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 69: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
An excellent conference
� Thanks to Governor Lee and the Bank of Korea staff.
� This has been an excellent conference on critical topics atthe research frontier of macroeconomics.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
![Page 70: Model Uncertainty Roundtable Discussion - Federal …/media/Files/PDFs/Bullard/... · · 2014-09-15Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit Model Uncertainty Roundtable](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022081605/5aef2f927f8b9abc788ba5c7/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Backrooms Monetary policy Stability Robustness and fit
An excellent conference
� Thanks to Governor Lee and the Bank of Korea staff.� This has been an excellent conference on critical topics at
the research frontier of macroeconomics.
James Bullard — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis