Model Devel Roadmap - bu.edu · Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc S ep tm br, 207.L as lud :My CISM Model...

Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007

CISM Model Development Roadmap Overview of Model Development Approach

CISM’s research goal is to develop a comprehensive suite of physics-based numerical simulation models that describes the space environment from the Sun to the Earth. Our strategy is to build the comprehensive model out of separate component models of parts of the overall system, and to couple these together using a computational framework. In addition to developing and coupling the physics-based models, CISM also uses empirical models. The empirical models serve two purposes: to provide well-defined baselines against which the developing physics-based models can be assessed, and to make quickly available a set of forecast models (i.e., models that can be run using real-time inputs to yield results in advance of the outcome, for forecast or nowcast purposes).

Development began by using ad hoc methods to couple a core set of existing MHD and neutral fluid models, covering the regions from the solar corona to the thermosphere. Figure 1 illustrates the two tracks of initial models: the core physics-based MHD models (blue), and empirical or hybrid empirical/physics-based models (yellow). Acronyms are defined at the back of this document.

Figure 1

Succeeding versions of the coupled models build upon this initial set by providing improvements through parallel development in several areas, as indicated schematically in Figure 2. • New generations of component models add and/or improve physics, increase

computational efficiency, provide higher resolution, and refine the coupling interfaces.

• Sophisticated modular coupling, using the InterComm and Overture technologies, replaces ad hoc coupling to create a framework with a robust interface for model additions and replacements. These coupling technologies provide the computational capabilities needed for efficiently running the coupled models and representing the physical processes by which the modeled regions interact. This includes a communications channel between parallel programs in coupled model runs across a


variety of platforms, support for overlapping grids, and a powerful syntax for arithmetic and differential operations.

• New component models are introduced to add physics and capability through varying degrees of interaction with the core models. Examples include: the Rice Convection Model (RCM) that is tightly two-way coupled with the core models; the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) and Radiation Belt models that operate within the environment defined by the comprehensive MHD model; and a variety of “auxiliary” models that use the comprehensive model as the foundation for calculations tailored to specific user needs. Examples of such tailored models include using the CMIT current systems to calculate localized dB/dt on the ground and a global Ap index (e.g. for SEC), and using the CMIT ionospheric profiles to calculate turbulence growth for prediction of scintillations (in partnership with AFRL).

Figure 2

As development proceeds, the modular nature of the model suite provides the flexibility to construct a variety of model combinations, and to use in situ measurement data at various points as model drivers and for direct comparison with model data. Figure 3 illustrates several alternative configurations, including: the comprehensive physics-based model (CORHEL and LTR); a hybrid model formed by substituting WSA for CORHEL or by the substituting the coronal portion of WSA for MAS; and the use of L1 satellite data to drive the stand-alone LTR geospace model or to compare with results from the standalone CORHEL. Similarly the original forecast model chain can incorporate new physics-based components, for example the Enlil model can replace the solar wind portion of WSA.


MODEL CONNECTIVITY & OPTIONS

Figure 3

Model Development Sequence

The following tables summarize the sequence of CISM model development through Year-5.

The Year 6-10 sequence is outlined the CISM Model Development Timeline, which is maintained on the web http://www.bu.edu/cism/Publications/documents.html.


Year Model Com-

ponents

Capabilities & Additions Devel.

Status

Delivery

Status

Respository

Detail

Notes

I. Solar-heliosphere coupled physics-based models2004

snap-

shot

CORHEL 1.0 MAS

ENLIL

Global ambient (non-event) solar wind specification (including points of

particular interest, e.g., L1).

Inputs: filtered NSO/KP synoptic maps of photospheric magnetic field

from specified Carrington rotation.

Ad hoc coupling.

Frozen MAS at CCMC.

Enlil at CCMC.

2005 CORHEL 1.2 Version of CORHEL 1 frozen for formal validation. Frozen, tagged

pre-val.

CORHEL-1_2-prevalid Version for formal

validation

2005 CORHEL 2.0 Add: Additional observatory (Wilcox) for inputs, giving greater data

availability and ability to compare and verify input fidelity.

Magnetograms can be visually preprocessed. Broader range of

controllable inputs. Web-bsaed GUI interface. Stand-alone CD with

Linux executables.

Frozen To CCMC in

2005, w/out GUI.

2005 CORHEL 2.3a Version of CORHEL 2 frozen for formal validation. Frozen, tagged

pre-val.

CORHEL-2_3a-prevalid Version for formal

validation

2005

2006

CORHEL 3.0 Add: Full set of observatories as inputs (NSO/KP, Wilcox, Mt. Wilson,

MDI). Cone model incorporated for ICME propagation and SEP shock

source.

Frozen, tagged

pre-val.

To CCMC Apr

2006.

CORHEL-3-prevalid

2007 CORHEL 3.4 Minor updates; fixes insertion-time of heliospheric transients. Frozen, taggedd

pre-valid

To CCMC. CORHEL-3.4-prevalid Version for formal

validation

II. Solar-heliosphere other physics-based models2004

snap-

shot

Cone Model Interim model of CME-like ejection for propagation in a solar wind

model (e.g. CORHEL) to produce shocks and background fields for SEP

model version 1.0 and to predict the timing and geometry of an ICME in

the realistically modeled interplanetary medium. Does not model internal

magnetic fields of ICME.

Inputs: Source location, angular extent, and speed (observables), density

and temperature.

To be

incorporated in

CORHEL 3.0

and SW Event-

Driven forecast

model.

2004 PFSS Coronal magnetic field driven by magnetograms. At CCMC.

2005 WSA Baseline Same version as running at SEC in 2005. Forcing only NSO/KP input.

Baseline model for several validation skill scores.

Frozen, tagged

pre-val.

WSA-2006_01_13-v1_0-

prevalid

See also VI. "WSA

Forecast" model

2007 SEPMOD 1.0 Energetic particles from parameterized shock source, using shocks and

fields from cone model ICME initialization in CORHEL (post-

processing).

Shock-Finder in

test with Cone

Model outputs.

Ad hoc shock

source

description being

iterated.

Currently uses jumps

along field lines.

Will introduce shock-

normal jumps.

2006 WSA-ENLIL WSA

ENLIL

Forecast capability using quasi-realtime magnetogram acquisition and

runs.

Frozen, tagged

prevalid

In transition at

SEC, CCMC

WSA 1.4.2-prevalid

ENLIL-wsa-2.4-prevalid

see VI. Solar Wind

Ambient Forecast


Year Model Com-

ponents


Status

Delivery

Status

Respository

Detail

Notes

III. Geospace coupled physics-based models2004

snap-

shot

CMIT 1.0 LFM

TING

Geospace model driven by measured (ACE) or modeled (e.g. CORHEL)

solar wind parameters at L1.

Two-way ad hoc coupling.

LFM with OMP parallelization.

Imposed auroral and empirical low-latitude potentials.

Frozen. Pre-val

distribution

available.

Pre-val distrib to

CCMC Jan 2006

v1.0r3 at CCMC

Mar 2007

CMIT-1.0-prevalid-r2.tgz

CMIT-1.0-prevalid-r3.tgz

All pre-MPI CMITs

require at least a 4-

processor, shared

memory computer.

v1.0r3 provides

Linux platform

compatibility,

improved test suite.

2006 CMIT 1.1 LFM

TING

Add: Neutral wind feedback from ionosphere to magnetosphere. Research model.

Not for external

delivery.

Neutral wind

feedback

incorporated in

CMIT 2.0

2007 CMIT 2.0 LFM

TIE-GCM

Add: Two-way coupled, TIE-GCM (MPI parallelization) replaces TING,

giving low latitude electric field. Modularized LFM & TIE-GCM with

InterComm.

2005 LTR 1.0 CMIT 1.0

RCM

LFM two-way coupled to both RCM and TING. (RCM + CMIT 1.1).

RCM drifts give accurate pressure and density to LFM; LFM gives

plasma boundary conditions and magnetic field for RCM. Coupled model

provides Region 2 currents and penetration electric fields.

Models coupled.

Diagnostics

ongoing.

RCM-LFM

diagnostics

underway; tests w/

parallel LFM at high

resol.

IV. Geospace other physics-based models2005

snap-

shot

Radiation Belt

Models

3 component models for energetic particles in earth's magnetosphere: 2D

Radbelt, 3D Radbelt, SEP Cutoff. Common future development includes

parallelization, cubic interpolation, and InterComm.

2D Radbelt Efficient tracking of 2D guiding center motion w/ large number of

particles in time-dependent LFM fields; polar grid. Post-processing gives

fluxes. Future additions: cartesian grid, interior B model.

v. 1.0 frozen;

tagged preval.

rbelt2d-1_0-prevalid

3D Radbelt 3D trajectories w/ choice of either guiding-center or Lorentz calculation

in time-dependent LFM fields; cartesian grid.

Future additions: interior B model; flux calculation.

Tagged devel,

development

ongoing.

rbelt3d-1_0-devel

SEP Cutoff Full 3D Lorentz trajectories determine SEP cutoffs in time-independent

LFM fields; cartesian grid.

Next: add interior B.

Devel version

frozen. Tag for

validation after

adding interior B.


Year Model Com-

ponents


Status

Delivery

Status

Respository

Detail

Notes

V. Comprehensive physics-based models2004

snap-

shot

CISM 1.0 CORHEL 1.2

CMIT 1.0

Ad hoc coupled CORHEL and CMIT.

Provides solar wind and geospace properties.

Inputs: same as CORHEL.

Automated coupler added 2006.

Frozen for

validation.

2007 CISM 2.0 CORHEL 3.0

CMIT 2.0

L1 Coupler

SEPMOD 1.0

Adds improvement to component models described above.

VI. Forecast and special-purpose models2004

snap-

shot

MeV Electron

Forecast

Empirical model: MeV electron radiation belt flux L=1.1 – 10.

Added: flux at 6 energies in test

Running in SEC

Devel. Envir.

CISM_DX-Release-0_24

2004

Vassiliades ARMA or

FIR. Not currently

targeting formal SEC

test product

2004

snap-

shot

Ap Forecast Empirical model: daily average Ap index with lead time of 1-7 days.

Inputs: L1 SW velocity and recent Ap history.

Released Running in SEC

Devel. Envir.

CISM_DX-Release-0_24

2004

2006 Ap Forecast 3-Hr Adds 3-hr running-average ap with 24-hr derived Ap, per SEC evaluation

of daily model.

(SEC Goal #1 set Jan. 2006.)

Development

complete.

Running in

realtime.

Running in SEC

Devel Envir.

SEC Goal 1 of Jan

2006.

2005 Geomagnetic

Disturbances;

Empirical

Predicted regional ground magnetic variations, driven by solar wind

parameters. This Weigel-Baker model is the baseline empirical model

for geomagnetic disturbances.

Complete Weigel

2007 Geomagnetic

Disturbances;

Physics-Based

Auxiliary

calculations from

CMIT data.

Regional ground magnetic variations calculated from model currents,

initially CMIT 2.0. Global Ap calculation as top-level indicator for

comparison and assessment of model confidence.

(SEC Goal #3 set Jan. 2006)

In development. SEC Goal 3 of Jan

2006.

2004

snap-

shot

WSA Forecast

Model

Empirical solar wind model. Driven by Mount Wilson, NSO/KP, and

Wilcox observatory data.

Running in real

time in SEC

Devel. Envir. To

CCMC in 2005.

See also II. WSA

Baseline model

2006

2007

WSA 1.4.2 Complete At SEC, CCMC.

Running CCMC

in realtime.

WSA-1.4.2-prevalid

2006 Solar Wind

Ambient Forecast

Model

WSA+ENLIL Daily updated magnetograms from NSO/KP drive coronal portion of

WSA model, which drives ENLIL MHD Solar Wind model to provide

ambient SW in the heliosphere and at L1. Purposes:

(a) Research model demonstrates insertion of physics-based MHD

module into forecast model and investigates sensitivity of solar wind

models at L1 to inner boundary conditions.

(b) Forecast model.

(SEC Goal #2 set Jan. 2006)

Complete. Running in SEC

Devel. Envir.

WSA-1.4.2-prevalid

ENLIL-wsa-2.4-prevalid

SEC Goal 2 of Jan

2006.

Runs on workstation.

See also II. WSA-

ENLIL


Names & acronyms CISM Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

CMIT Coupled Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Thermosphere model. CORHEL Coupled CORona (MAS) – HELiopsphere (Enlil) model

ENLIL Heliosphere model (Enlil is the Sumerian god of wind) InterComm Software package used in model coupling to provide communications &

control between parallel (and serial) programs LFM Lyon, Fedder, Mobarry magnetosphere model

LTR Coupled LFM, TIE-GCM, RCM geospace model MAS Magnetohydrodynamics Around a Sphere coronal MHD model

Overture Software package used in model coupling to handle overlapping grids; computations between domains

SEP Solar Energetic Particle model TIE-GCM Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model

TING Thermosphere Ionosphere Nested Grid model WSA Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

WSA in CISM is supported through a partnership with AFRL

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