The useris thedestination now

Mobile’s Role in the Eighth Mass Media

David CushmanBrando-Digital.com FasterFuture.Blogspot.com

May 3, 2023 2

Hits are worth(-)less in the networked world

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Three laws describe how value growsand is distributed in networks

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Sarnoff’s Law – the red line

The value of a broadcast network is proportional to the number of viewers/listeners: Eg TV, Radio, Cinema

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Metcalfe’s Law: the yellow lineyellow line

The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n² growth): Fax machines, telephones, one-to-one communications.

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Reed’s Law: the green line

The value of large networks, particularly social networks, grows exponentially with the size of the network.(2n)Because: The number of possible sub-groups of network participants grows much more rapidly than either the number of participants, ‘N’ (Sarnoff’s Law), or the number of possible pair connections (Metcalfe's law) (N squared)

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How does this reveal the value of hits in the networked world?

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Flip the graphs to find the demand curve

…and we discover why the long tail succeeds in the group forming

(Reed’s Law) world of social networks that IS the internet.

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Hits take more of the available value in a broadcast world

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Hits worth more in broadcast world

Shaded area shows hits account for a greater proportion of the available

demand and total value in Sarnoff’s broadcast world and in Metcalfe’sMetcalfe’s

world of one-to-one communications.

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Hits are still worth having… but They have less proportional value

compared to the overall economics of the networked world.

In a broadcast world the hit was where MOST of the value resided

The opposite is true in a networked world.

Seeking ways to create value in the long tail offers the bigger opportunity

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Caution: Snakes

Long tail is getting longer…

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Frightening Fragmentation

Q: How can we reach deep into and along the ever-elongating long tail?A: Understand how messages/ideas and conversations evolve in the networked world

The internet is for people.

The internet is for people. For people to form groups

The internet is for people. For people to form groups

Groups with shared purposes

http://flickr.com/photos/joeshlabotnik/

The internet is for people. For people to form groups

Groups with shared purposesGroups of people that can form at little or no cost

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That changes everything

http://flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/

Three key disruptions

Who gets to create content? Who gets to distribute content? Who controls the user experience?

Three key disruptions

Who gets to create content?Any and everyoneWho gets to distribute content?Any and everyoneWho controls the user experience?The user is the destination now, they control their ownA-to-anywhere journey

You can’t target every community of purpose

They can

Here’s howhttp://flickr.com/photos/caribb/

You can’t target every community of purpose.

They can

Here’s how

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THE STAGE

Scale = audience = eyeballs

Message broadcast at

audience

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THE STAGE

But in (social) networks the broadcast message doesn’t

arrive

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They aren’t looking at The Stage.

They are looking at each other

Scale = lots of communities of purpose = where the eyeballs are focused

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•They share messages among their groups.•They adapt them to suit their groups. •They make the message theirs

We share what we think is cool with people who (we think) will think its cool, too

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•The groups are not fixed (adhoc).•The message spreads when the groups reform around a new purpose

Users select what they think is cool (has utility) to take with them on their journey

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Participants adapt the message to suit the group they wish to share it with

The people best-placed to adapt the message are in the group, not on stage

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And so it continues; the message evolving to survive. Or it dies out.

We share what we think is cool. That which we co-create, we embrace

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They aren’t your groups, they are theirs. They aren’t your messages, they are theirs

Marketing is not done to them, it is done by them

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The seven mass medias Print Audio recordings Cinema Radio TV Internet Mobile

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7th Mass Media1. It’s truly personal2. It’s always on3. It’s always with you4. Has a built-in payment

mechanism5. Allows creation

at the pointof inspiration

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The eighth?

Connects communities of purpose globally

In real time Beyond all silos Enables the fulfilment of Reed’s

Law (GFNT)

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We are the eighth mass media Participatory culture is leading us to

the eighth mass media It’s not just that we create it in a UGC

vs Professional way. I mean: WE are the distribution, WE are the content, WE are the 'user journey', WE are how messages are transmitted. WE are the medium and the media

carried by it.

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For the journey… We are the connections.

We are also how the connections are made.

The eighth mass media is where being pointed at is less important than being taken with.

Mobile is the consumate taken-with enabler.

It is how ubiquity can be achieved

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Perhaps the ninth?

Key lessons for brands 1

http://flickr.com/photos/cleversimon/

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Key lessons for brands 2Respond

http://flickr.com/photos/daveyp/

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Listen

The conversations are happening with or without your permission.

They are happening everywhere people talk

You can listen: summize.com; brandtags.net, Radian6

Listen, enable, and serve.

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Business case for listening 70% of purchase decisions are

friend-recommended. How much of your current spend

is focused on connecting to the conversations?

How much value do you currently place on these conversations?

If the answer isn’t 70%, why not?

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2. Respond

Marketing isn’t done to them, it is done by them

Think less of where the eyeballs are and more about the mouths and ears

Place value on real-time, human interaction.

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Why mobile (widgets)

Portable: taken on the user’s journey (portablity: the new point-worthy!)

Adaptable: The joke can be retold Adoptable: Users can associate

themselves with brands/bands/orgs/ideas

Low-tech barriers Ubiquitous (we’ll come back to how important that is)

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Homo Mimicus

Widgets are great enablers of behaviour emulationThe show-me-screen of the mobile is too

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Content works Where it allows users to adapt it

to better suit those they would share them with

Eg Youtube’s many incarnations of the Cadbury’s gorilla ad.

Where the the technical barriers to interaction are low

Eg Pampers easy-insert of your own kids’ pictures into a Christmas video message.

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Messy kitchens

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Interesting + together Create interesting things for

people to do together Co-create with those you were

going to do your content to. Now do it with them.

They’ll find that more interesting.

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Connect communities of purpose Make it easy for people who care to

connect People who care, act Action creates value (makes change) Their actions attract more people to

the purpose by amplifying and sustaining the conversation

This is how behaviour is changed – remember our monkey mimic?

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The value of right now

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Mobile content needs1. A willingness to

relinquish control

2. Toolkits users can play with

3. Creative users

2&3 are in place.Ready for No1?

http://flickr.com/photos/darwinbell/

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The networked journey Listening to and responding to the

network requires and drives cultural change within the brand itself.

It raises and answers questions about ownership and control to make your brand better adapted to the networked world.

It is your safe passage to the future

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The great disruption has only just begun

Brian Eno 1991

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Thanks! Find me athttp://brando-digital.comhttp://fasterfuture.blogspot.comhttp://twitter.com/davidcushmanhttp://linkedin.com/in/davidcushman

david@brando-world.comCall or text +44 (0)7736 353590Or Google: “David Cushman”