MOBILE SERVICES IN DEVELOPED ASIA PACIFIC: TRENDS AND ...

Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

© Analysys Mason Limited 2017

RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT

analysysmason.com

MOBILE SERVICES IN DEVELOPED ASIA–PACIFIC: TRENDS

AND FORECASTS 2017–2022

CAI SHIYU



WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

2

This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support

our 5-year forecast for developed Asia–Pacific. It includes

worldwide context and commentary on six key countries: Australia,

Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts are

informed by a unique, in-house modelling tool, which applies a

rigorous methodology (including the reconciliation of different

sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

For the complete data set for the region, please see the

http://www.analysysmason.com/datahub

About this report

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE KEY METRICS

Region modelled:

▪ Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually

▪ Australia

▪ Hong Kong

▪ Japan

▪ Singapore

▪ South Korea

▪ Taiwan

Mobile Connections

▪ Handset, mobile broadband,1

M2M2

▪ Prepaid, contract

▪ 2G, 3G, 4G,5G

▪ Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile Revenue

▪ Service,3 retail


▪ Handset, mobile broadband,1

M2M2

▪ Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile Voice Traffic

▪ Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU:

▪ SIMs, handset


▪ Handset voice, data

▪ Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators

in DVAP.

▪ Regulatory bodies in DVAP.

▪ Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the

region, or advise others that do so.

▪ Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of DVAP’s

fixed telecoms market.

1 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

http://www.analysysmason.com/datahub


© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3

6. Executive summary

7. Overall telecoms service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific will grow slowly,

surpassing USD200 billion in 2022

8. Worldwide trends

9. Worldwide: Service revenue will continue to increase over the forecast

period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022

10. Regional trends

11. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data and high smartphone penetration

will continue to depress voice revenue

12. Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration growth in the DVAP

region will remain steady, reaching 124% by 2022

13. Mobile connections: The share of 4G mobile connections will continue to

increase until 2019, and then start to decline as it is replaced by 5G

14. Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of total handsets in DVAP

reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022

15. Mobile broadband: The number of mobile broadband connections in DVAP

will reach 22.7 million by 2022, 99% of these will be 4G/5G

16. Mobile ARPU: mobile ARPU for the DVAP region will grow slowly overall to

USD33 per month by the end of the forecast period

17. Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow steadily,

supported by new technologies, to reach 32.5EB in 2022

18. Country-level trends

19. Australia – mobile: Termination rate reduction in 2016 will affect service

revenue growth in the forecast period

20. Hong Kong – mobile: Competition will intensify in the mobile market after

HKBN’s entrance, resulting in a decline in ARPU

21. Japan – mobile: Data-centric pricing will drive data revenue growth,

compensating for voice and messaging revenue declines

22. Singapore – mobile: The entrance of a fourth MNO will increase

competition and lead to a higher rate of 4G adoption

23. South Korea – mobile: Connections are expected to be on 4G/5G

by 2022; increasing OTT usage will drive data revenue growth

24. Taiwan – mobile: Unlimited data plans will lead to high data usage per

connection, but will negatively affect revenue growth

25. About the author and Analysys Mason

26. About the author

27. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

28. Research from Analysys Mason

29. Consulting from Analysys Mason

Contents



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue

(retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific and worldwide,

2012–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type, and mobile ARPU,

developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 4: Telecoms mobile retail revenue by service type, total mobile service

revenue and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022

Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific,

2016–2022

Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed

Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and

3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of

total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia–Pacific, 2016 and 2022

Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology,

developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, developed Asia-

Pacific, 2012–2022

Figure 12: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, developed Asia–Pacific,

2012–2022

Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Australia,

2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2012–2022

Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia

Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong,

2012–2022

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2012–2022

Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong

Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan,

2012–2022

Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2012–2022

Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan

Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore,

2012–2022

Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2012–2022

Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore

Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea,

2012–2022

Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2012–2022

Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions,

South Korea

List of figures



Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan,

2012–2022

Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2012–2022

Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan

List of figures



Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific and worldwide, 2012–2022

9

Mobile service revenue worldwide will increase over the

forecast period at a CAGR of 0.6%. However, mobile services

revenue in DVAP will grow at a higher CAGR of 1.5% during the

same period.

We expect that most regions will undergo growth in mobile service

revenue during the forecast period. Only Western Europe and

North America will have negative mobile service revenue CAGRs

(-1.0% and -0.4%, respectively). Mobile service revenue in North

America will decline due to growing competition in the USA.

Sub-Saharan Africa and DVAP will have the fastest mobile revenue

growth (CAGRs of 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively) due to high service

demand, especially for mobile data services. This will drive mobile

handset data revenue growth in both of these regions.

DVAP’s mobile revenue share of the worldwide total will

increase to 14.3% in 2022.

The competition among DVAP operators is moderate, as service

saturation is high and high GDP per capita limits strong price

competition. Operators compete more on technological

improvements, and introduce new products to attract subscribers

and reduce churn. This will lead to stable mobile ARPU and high

profit margins. The regional share of total worldwide mobile

service revenue will increase nearly one percentage point, due to

the contributions of these high-value mobile subscribers.

Worldwide: Service revenue will continue to increase over the

forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022



Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore

Singapore – mobile: The entrance of a fourth MNO will increase

competition and lead to a higher rate of 4G adoption

1 Mobile ARPU is calculated as total mobile service revenue (retail and wholesale), excluding M2M,

divided by total average mobile connections, excluding M2M.

Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, 2012–2022

Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2012–20221

KPI Drivers and assumptions

4G/5G

share of

total

connections

2G service was shut down in April 2017. The available

spectrum will be reused for 4G/5G services. Singtel

announced that it had reached a peak LTE-A speed of

450Mbps at the beginning of 2017 and plans to achieve

1Gbps peak speeds before the launch of 5G. Technology

upgrades and regulatory changes will be the main

reason for an increase in 4G/5G connections during the

forecast period, and the share of 4G/5G connections will

account for 96.9% of all handsets in 2022.

Mobile data

revenue and

ARPU

TPG Telecom won the fourth mobile network operator

licence at the end of 2016 and will provide street-level

4G coverage by the end of 2018. Its entrance will put

more-competitive pressure on existing operators.

Moreover, MVNOs such as Circles.Life offer large data

plans with competitive prices. We expect mild growth in

handset data ARPU, and data revenue growth is

expected to slow down. We expect revenue growth to

decline from a CAGR of 33.8% in 2012–2016 to 4.4% in

2016–2022.

5G launch

Singtel has been actively testing MIMO (Multi-input Multi-

output), partnering with Ericsson, Huawei and ZTE. M1

and StarHub also reported 5G trials on multiple sites. 5G

is expected to be launched commercially in 2020 by all

the major operators.

Smartphone share of handsets 4G/5G share of SIMs (excluding M2M)

Mobile penetration of population: Including M2M Excluding M2M

Handset dataMobile Handset



CONTENTSCONTENTS

25

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

REGIONAL TRENDS

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

AUSTRALIA

HONG KONG

JAPAN

SINGAPORE

SOUTH KOREA

TAIWAN

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON



About the author

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason’s Asia–Pacific research programme, and is based in our

Singapore office. He has been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in

developed and emerging Asia–Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business

development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu

holds a Bachelor’s degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.



Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

27

CONSULTING

▪ We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms

industry:

communications and digital service providers, vendors,

financial and strategic investors, private equity and

infrastructure funds, governments, regulators,

broadcasters, and service and content providers

▪ Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges

facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.

▪ We are future-focused and help clients understand the

challenges and opportunities that new technology brings.

RESEARCH

▪ Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the

different services accessed by consumers and enterprises.

▪ We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and

technology delivering those services.

▪ Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct

access to analysts.

Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio



Research from Analysys Mason



Consulting from Analysys Mason



PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN NOVEMBER 2017

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