Mobile Monday (October 2014) - Riding Global Tech Trends

1 MAP Tech Trends Presentation v2.pptx

Riding Global Tech Trends A lens to think about startup ideas Zezan Tam -‐ @zezantam EIR, Melbourne Accelerator Program Co-‐founder PPTProducCvity.com March 2014


Avoiding exCncCon: one reason to care about tech trends

Frederic Tudor The “Ice King” of Boston

1806

•  Unlocked trade for US Meat and Produce markets

•  Drama7cally increased fishing industry

•  Worth $660m at turn of century

~1900

GE ‘Monitor Top’ Refrigerator

•  Drama7cally reduced demand for transported ice

•  Survivors invested into plant ice tech and moved downstream


Digging in: a more posiCve reason to care about tech trends

Obvious Path

Actually build technology

•  Be good at finding and retaining technical talent, and managing technical risk

•  Have the capital base to support R&D

•  S7ll might get product-‐market fit wrong

AlternaCve Path

“Get ready”

•  Build “shovels” – infrastructure or distribu7on channels that the new paradigm will s7ll value

•  “Entrench” – invest into a network advantage, brand posi7oning or capability


Example: Getaround entrenching brand and capabiliCes for P2P car rentals in preparaCon for self-‐driving cars

•  Founded at SU 2009

•  $19m in funding

•  P2P car rental

•  Competes against RelayRides, ZipCar

Physical exchange of keys Car must be returned to

original locaCon

Digital unlocking Car sCll returned to original locaCon

Digital unlocking Car drives itself to sharing

locaCons

1 2 3

P2P Rideshare Marketplace viability increases as technology increases


So what are the tech trends, and how do you think about them?

Timing How likely is this to really happen? What’s a prospec7ve 7me line for technology? What’s a prospec7ve 7meline for consumers?

Understanding the disrupCon

What is the ‘real’ market? How close to ‘real consumer desire’ / ‘innate human need’ can you define the problem? Does the technology truly allow you to meet this problem beSer?

Understanding the ‘new paradigm’

How does the new paradigm’s value chain work? Which parts are new? Which parts were transported from the old place? Therefore, what can you build now?

However, first need to get into a headspace to temporarily suspend reality to fully appreciate the possibiliCes


Formally, Singularity University is…


A recipe for creaCng a Singularity University


Founders: “The Brain” Ray Kurzweil

Principal inventor of: •  first CCD flatbed scanner •  omni-‐font op7cal character

recogni7on •  text-‐to-‐speech reading

machine for the blind •  others…

Inventor

89 out of 108 predic7ons correct e.g. chess so^ware would beat human players by year 2000 -‐ Deep Blue defeats Garry Kasparov in 1997

Futurist

Currently Director of Engineering at Google Using AI and Brain Reverse Engineering techniques for Natural Language Understanding

Googler


Founders: “The Heart” Peter Diamandis


ExponenCal growth: technology progression is inexorable

•  Price-‐performance in compu7ng doubles every 18 to 24 months

•  Similar trends seen in other fields – e.g. genome sequencing speed and cost

•  Exponen7al vs linear –  30 linear steps is 30 –  30 exponen7al steps is 1 trillion

•  Upshot: technology progression is inexorable, and may sneak up on you

Moore’s Law


Diverse ecosystem of students, faculty and guests

Hannu Rajaniemi -‐ Finnish born, UK based PhD in Mathema7cs of String Theory, now award winning SciFi writer Sony Mordechai -‐ Greek born, Romanian based business magnate Jorge Soto -‐ Director of Innova7on for President’s Office of Mexico

Students

Brad Templeton -‐ Former Chairman EFF, now Google Robocars program lead and advocate Dan Barry -‐ Three 7me NASA astronaut – a^er being rejected 17 7mes Dr Daniel Kra^ – Founder RegenMed, Stanford Medical Faculty and part 7me F-‐16 Fighter Pilot

Faculty

Steve Jurvetson – Named Partner of DFJ, invested in SpaceX, D-‐Wave, Tesla Marc Andreessen – Founder Netscape, Founder Andreessen Horowitz Hans Rosling – Founder GapMinder, Professor of Interna7onal Health at Karolinska Ins7tute, Legendary Speaker

Guests




Students


Faculty


Guests


InteresCng Tech Trends

AI and RoboCcs

Nanotech and Digital

FabricaCon

Biotech and Bio-‐

informaCcs

Medicine and Neuroscience

Networks and CompuCng ?

Energy and Environment Systems

Space and Physical Sciences


AI/RoboCcs -‐ Extract: Self driving cars

Works by a big computer processing LIDAR data real-‐Cme to ‘see’ Google stated in 2013 that it will be out in 3-‐5 years Volvo, Audi, Cadillac, Nissan, Toyota, Tesla, Mercedes-‐Benz, Daimler all commiied to autonomous cars in varying forms in next decade RegulaCon will likely be biggest hurdle

InteresCng QuesCons

What does it mean that transport is independent of humans? For global logis7cs? Personal transport? No more cars owned: Transport aaS? Super-‐Uber? Getaround? What do people do in the cars? What can you do with the car images?


AI/RoboCcs – Beier performing industrial robots / Drones

InteresCng QuesCons

How might TelePresence robots reshape what it means to ‘be at work’? What happens to human workers when robots get beSer and beSer at manual tasks? Who will handle retraining?


Medicine Extract: Digital Medicine / Telemedicine

InteresCng QuesCons

What other ver7cals can be digi7sed? Is there a role for ‘unifica7on’ of data? In an era of abundant data and Quan7fied Self, understanding / interpreta7on becomes the premium. Is there a way to create plaoorms for shared understanding? What opportuni7es for healthcare distribu7on exist once the tyranny of distance is solved? Who will take this ‘last mile’ to those that need it most in developing world?


Networks and CompuCng: Internet of Things

Chips get smaller, power gets cheaper, connecCvity improves You’ll soon have a world of sensors everywhere, raw data everywhere OpportuniCes to build understanding algorithms, to build interfaces for consumer use, to build connecCons to who needs to know with what they need to know (e.g. doctors access paCents fitbit. Same in the animal health world) E-‐waste recycling – Blue Oak

InteresCng QuesCons

What to do with the torrent of data everywhere? What informa7on co-‐ordina7on problems have s7ll not properly been solved? E.g. ridesharing What do you do about e-‐waste?


Digital FabricaCon -‐ Extract: 3D prinCng

3D prinCng costs Different technologies have different ‘spec’ Currently good for bespoke items and complex shapes But the cost is coming down What’s it mean now that products can be built on demand, and customised? So far, toys. Digital marketplaces – how to curate designs and encourage people to make them? (thingiverse) What about a spare parts repository for household goods that break? MadeInSpace

InteresCng QuesCons

How do the factors of ‘on-‐demand’ and ‘customised’ change the retail landscape? Will we ever need so many warehouses again? Digital Fabrica7on changes the equa7on from ‘sending atoms’ to ‘sending bits’. How does the maker get paid in a world where, once generated, the design is free to copy? (Inspira7on from the content markets: how to create ‘light locks’ on content – Valve, iTunes)


Networks and CompuCng -‐ BitCoin

InteresCng QuesCons

What opportuni7es are open to ‘smart money’? Deriva7ves contracts? Seems ‘build shovels’ is the smart way to play this innova7on at the moment


Biotech – Hacking DNA

InteresCng QuesCons

What’s stopping more people from being bio-‐engineers? Are there ‘shovels’ to be built? Educa7on, parts, so^ware tools, systems/plaoorms/communi7es? What does genomic data reveal about risk? Health insurance? Pet insurance?


Medicine Extract: Personalised Medicine, Stem Cell and Gene Therapy, and In Vitro Meat

InteresCng QuesCons

What is the nature of food distribu7on when it’s ‘on-‐demand’? What happens when people live much longer? (Big ques7on!)


Energy – Fracking, Solar, Storage, Distributed GeneraCon

InteresCng QuesCons

How to take advantage of move from supplying energy to supplying “energy services”? E.g. last mile problem in the developing world s7ll to be solved


Space – Space X, ArduLab, Planetary Resources

InteresCng QuesCons

What opportuni7es do increased transparency open up, once you have more geosta7onary satellites / “up to date” Google Earth? Precious metals become ubiquitous – how do these changes in economics suddenly make other fields viable?


Some closing thoughts

Be excited about the future…

…think BIG…

…because you don’t have to be in the back seat!

Mobile Monday (October 2014) - Riding Global Tech Trends

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Transcript of Mobile Monday (October 2014) - Riding Global Tech Trends