Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics (CTO Briefing)
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Transcript of Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics (CTO Briefing)
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Copyright Paul Golding, 2011http://wirelesswanders.com
Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics - CTO BriefingPaul Golding
May 2011
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
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Key numbers:21 years in mobile ecosystems16 patents (mobile chip design)4 books1st mobile apps co. in Europe1st mobile internet portal1st push email solution
Why listen to this guy?
Paul GKey roles:Mobile Product StrategyDeveloper/Product OwnerChief Apps Architect MotorolaAdvisor to corps €10k - €10BFounded the O2 UK IncubatorMentor at Springboard IncubatorconnFu* Master at O2
*connFu is a cloud-telephony platform
Most importantly: I’ve worked with many companies, big and small, on mobile product strategies. I at least know the right questions :)
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
3Written a few books...
Innovationis for
Everyone
31 innovationhabits
August2011
Sept2011
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
5
ExperienceEcosystems
“Right-time” web
SensorProliferation
CloudComputing
Post PC epoch
Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape...
Digital service providers need to navigate this landscape
AppEconomy
LTEBT LP
SmartphonesEmbedded Tablets
FacebookGoogleApple
HandsetEmbedded
PaaSSaaSIaaS
AbundantAccess inc. M2M
App storeSoftware
Real-time& meta-data
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
5
ExperienceEcosystems
“Right-time” web
SensorProliferation
CloudComputing
Post PC epoch
Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape...
Digital service providers need to navigate this landscape
AppEconomy
LTEBT LP
SmartphonesEmbedded Tablets
FacebookGoogleApple
HandsetEmbedded
PaaSSaaSIaaS
AbundantAccess inc. M2M
App storeSoftware
Real-time& meta-data
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
6Device platform evolution...
comms
OS
Web
apps
2007
Closed
Telco OEM Internet
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
6Device platform evolution...
comms
OS
Web
apps
2007
Closed
Web
OS
comms
apps
2011
Open
Telco OEM Internet
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
6Device platform evolution...
comms
OS
Web
apps
2007
Closed
Web
OS
comms
apps
2011
Open
Telco OEM Internet
Web
OS
comms
apps
2014
Experience Platforms
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
7Balance of influence tipping towards developers...
Web
OS
comms
apps
Experience Platforms
Telco OEM Internet Developers
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
7Balance of influence tipping towards developers...
Web
OS
comms
apps
Experience Platforms
TelcoOEM
InternetDevelopers
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
Apps
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Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQ
App experience...Telco
Mobile experience is moving towards apps...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
Apps
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Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQ
App experience...Telco
Mobile experience is moving towards apps...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
9Digital experience economy...
Network Infrastructuree.g. LTE, 3G, WiFi, ADSL, Cable...
Software/Device Ecosystemse.g. iOS, Android, Web...
User Experience(apps)
$$$$$$$
$$$$$
$$$
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
10
Software/Device
Network Infrastructure
User Experience (apps)
Digital experience influence...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
11But app stores and experience platforms exert control
Internet Ecosystems
Web
OS
comms
apps
Experience Platforms
}!
Developers
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
11But app stores and experience platforms exert control
Internet Ecosystems
Web
OS
comms
apps
Experience Platforms
}!
Developers
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
12
MoneyGaming HealthMedia SME/CorpSocial “Experience Platforms”
“The Web Operating System”
Frameworks
“Cloud Platforms”IaaS
PaaSSaaS
CaaS
Telco
“Social Stack”
Family
iOS AndroidHTML5 ?
Identity/oAuth
Mobile Services “Stack”LAMP/R stack
BIG DATA
“Right-time”Computers
Post PCDevices
NaaS
Mobile software stack top to bottom...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
13The dominance of experience ecosystems...
“Our competitors aren’t taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem.”
Steven Elop, CEO, Nokia
Strategic battlefront: ecosystems
MoneyGaming HealthMedia SME/CorpSocial
“Experience Platforms”
Family
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
14Platform economics (N-sided)...
tip: read Spolsky, Hagiu, Eisenmann,
VisionMobile
OEMS
Users
Google mobile search 15%Google mobile ad revenue: 1.5%
AdvertisersDevelopers
Operators
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
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DevelopProduct
Apps are now about product, not code...
From hobby to fully blown enterprise...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
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DevelopProduct
Apps are now about product, not code...
tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself
tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog, other devs...
Analytics, retailing, marketing, support, CRM...
HeyzapchompflurryallifySocial media
Lean start-upCustDevPlanning
MobileWebPaaS/SaaS
MobileWebTools/X-Dev
From hobby to fully blown enterprise...
ConceiveProduct
ChoosePlatforms
DeliverProduct
EngageMarket
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
17Which platforms are developers paying attention to?
Penetration (100M+)Easy learning curve
Penetration (120M+)Monetization!Consistent UX
Web-dev friendly!Mass consumptionSmartphone browsers
A lighthouse platform for brands/agencies
Increasing support from CMS tools (e.g. Wordpress)
Strong entertainment/business app genres
Weak business app genre
A lighthouse platform for devs (experimental)
Emerging lighthouse formultiscreen development
Limited APIs and implementationNOT an ecosystem!
Not an “open” OSNot “all apps are equal”
Fragmentation worries(no OEM update incentives)
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
19Tools are getting richer and better...
Lua language (“code less”)Strong gaming platformExploits OpenGL2D physics engineAnnual fee
HTML/CSS/JSMobile/desktopAnnual fee
HTML + CSS + JavaScriptOpenDeveloper focussed
Corona from Ansca Mobile Titanium from Appcelerator Phonegap
HTML5 framework for TouchPay for support
Ruby frameworkEnterprise focus (sync)
Caveats:
Most solutions “favour” a reference platform
Success very use-case dependent
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
20Mobile web getting better...
<video>Without plug-ins (Flash)Codec independentMultimedia content
Semantic Annotations“itemprop”Add semantics to HTMLSemantic apps
Geo-location APIAccesses underlying APIsLocation-based apps
App cacheCache pages/script etc.Offline working
Web WorkersBackground processingOffloading long-running tasks
<device>API to hardware devicesMicrophone/cameraRicher interactive apps
Local storageKey-value pairs(IndexDB likely)Offline working
<canvas>Built-in Graphics Canvas2D vector graphicsGames and rich UI
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
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Sight(Camera)
Sound(Microphone)
Touch(NFC)
Direction(Compass)
Touch(Temperature)
Motion(Accelerometer)
Remote sensing(Bluetooth)
But it’s more than just a computer...
A computer with senses...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
23
AlphaPunk office
W
S
N
E
Popular view of “Augmented Reality”
We can surf the real world...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
24And we can interact with the physical world...
Money
Access
BodyCars
Metering
Control
Security Sight(Camera)
Sound(Microphone)
Touch(NFC)
Direction(Compass)
Touch(Temperature)
Motion(Accelerometer)
Remote sensing(Bluetooth)
Real “Augmented Reality”
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
24And we can interact with the physical world...
Money
Access
BodyCars
Metering
Control
Security Sight(Camera)
Sound(Microphone)
Touch(NFC)
Direction(Compass)
Touch(Temperature)
Motion(Accelerometer)
Remote sensing(Bluetooth)
Real “Augmented Reality”
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
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http://paulg.stuff/car/245534462342
/vitals/heart...
/watch/temperature/..
/home/windows/..
/trainers/wear/..
There’s a URI for that...
Internet of Things
“20 Billion devices by2020” - GSMA
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
26Suddenly everything can “talk”...
Source: PSFK - http://bit.ly/aES59AWednesday, 25 May 2011
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Real-time streams...Right-time Web
Social stream
Information stream
Entertainment stream
Event stream
Sensor stream
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
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Sight(Camera)
Sound(Microphone)
Touch(NFC)
Direction(Compass)
Touch(Temperature)
Motion(Accelerometer)
Remote sensing(Bluetooth)
Mobile is centre stage of right-time Web...
TheCloud
Social stream
Information stream
Entertainment stream
Event stream
Sensor stream
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
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realtime
storage
realtime
processing
realtime
output
Distributed sensor grids
“Sensor Net”
Big Data is a major accomplice in the right-time revolution...
Key enabler: Big Data!
Creating value from unthinkably large amounts of data
Many challenges = opportunities
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
30M2M opportunities...
•No clear standardization•Ecosystems yet to emerge
Asset trackingFleet managementMonitoringSecurityTelematicsWireless POSmHealthSmart Grids
M2MServices
CloudPaaS
AxedaJasper WirelessSensorLogicSierra WirelessILS Technology“Big Data”
Embedded LinuxAndroid/Meego/...
Platforms
Wireless
Embedded SIM$3-5 ARPUs
Opportunity: M2M ecosystems
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
30M2M opportunities...
•No clear standardization•Ecosystems yet to emerge
Asset trackingFleet managementMonitoringSecurityTelematicsWireless POSmHealthSmart Grids
M2MServices
CloudPaaS
AxedaJasper WirelessSensorLogicSierra WirelessILS Technology“Big Data”
Embedded LinuxAndroid/Meego/...
Platforms
Wireless
Embedded SIM$3-5 ARPUs
Opportunity: M2M ecosystems
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
MobileCloud
Opportunities
31
IaaS
PaaS
SaaS
AWSRightscaleRackspaceNimbula
mPaaS
mSaaS
CaaSNaaS
Skype/Jajah/MicrosoftBlueVia (Telefonica)New entrants!
XaaSFacebookApple?O2?New entrants!
Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud...
NodesterDuostackHerokuForce.comdotcloud
gnipIMifiedchargifyapigee
connFuTropoCorona/Appcelerator?New entrants!
flurryallifyheyzapNew entrants!
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
MobileCloud
Opportunities
31
IaaS
PaaS
SaaS
AWSRightscaleRackspaceNimbula
mPaaS
mSaaS
CaaSNaaS
Skype/Jajah/MicrosoftBlueVia (Telefonica)New entrants!
XaaSFacebookApple?O2?New entrants!
Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud...
NodesterDuostackHerokuForce.comdotcloud
gnipIMifiedchargifyapigee
connFuTropoCorona/Appcelerator?New entrants!
flurryallifyheyzapNew entrants!
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
32The innovation advantage...
Software DNA
Increasingly, the dialogue withcustomers is via software (apps)
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
33Where are we headed?
100 GHz100 Mbps100 TB100 Sensors
The not-so-distant future...
Just imagine the possibilities...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
@pgolding
(C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
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Thank You
Wednesday, 25 May 2011