Mobile communication technologies in tourism ...brochures.nhtv.nl/scriptiebank/documenten/Mobile...

Rob Simons

Thesis

I hereby declare that this thesis is wholly the work of Rob Simons. Any other contributors or

sources have either been referenced in the prescribed manner or are listed in the

acknowledgements together with the nature and the scope of their contribution.

R.M. Simons

Student at NHTV University of Professional Education

ITMC International Tourism Management and Consultancy degree program

December 2005

Mobile Communication Technology in Tourism – Possibilities for Tomorrow

Summary

Inspired by a lecture on the Internet revolution within tourism, this thesis focuses on future

possibilities for mobile communication technologies in tourism. Most people do not realize

how fast these technologies are developing (Kurzweil, 2005). Because of this state of

unawareness, this thesis intends to open the eyes and minds of those involved in tourism.

Therefore the goal of this thesis is ‘to explore and analyze the future possibilities for mobile

communication technologies in the tourism process, providing a range of future scenarios and

conclude what their implications are, in order to create awareness of these aspects amongst

those involved in tourism.’ The research questions related to this goal are:

• What is the relation between tourism and mobile communication technology?

• What are the developments in mobile communication technology?

• What devices use these technologies?

• How are these technologies currently used in tourism?

• How will such technologies be used in the future?

• Why is scenario planning useful for envisioning this future?

• What is the timeframe for the scenarios?

• What are the opinions of tourism and technology experts on the future of mobile

communication and tourism?

• What types of holiday and travel should be distinguished?

• Who are the main stakeholders?

• What are the scenarios in envisioning the future?

• What are the implications of these scenarios for the main stakeholders?

Technology is frequently described as a key driver for increasing the mobility of tourists and

for sustaining the growth of the tourism industry. It has the ability to bridge the gap between

information needs and the availability of information. Tourism especially qualifies for the

adoption of mobile communication technologies. Several mobile communication

developments (GPS, Bluetooth, WiFi, and RFID) and devices that use these technologies

(mobile phones, laptops, PDAs and hybrids) are presented. Also possible applications these

technologies currently have within tourism are given. Applications in the pre-visit phase are

for example mobile internet information search and online booking through mobile devices.


Applications used during the visit phases include digital guidebooks; digital guides using GPS

or SMS services. During the post-visit phase, mobile communication technologies can be

used for reminiscing and sharing memories with significant others.

Because scenario planning as a futurological process allows a high degree of speculative

thought, it is used to formulate the envisioned future in this thesis. Steps in the scenario

planning process described by Schoemaker (1995) are adapted and function as a structure for

the scenarios within a timeframe of ten years. The major stakeholders are the tourists, the

tourism sector and the technology sector. The tourists are subdivided into travel with business

motives and travel with leisure motives, each with their subdivisions serving as a basis for the

scenarios. The tourism sector is divided into five categories following Middleton and Clarke

(2001), they provide the basic structure for the formulation of the implications of the

scenarios.

A collection of opinions and visions from various experts in tourism, technology and other

fields is presented, forming the basis of the scenarios. The trends and foresights are divided

into four main categories: ‘consumer trends and foresights’; ‘tourism sector trends and

foresights’; ‘technological advancements’; and ‘environmental trends and foresights’.

Economic and political trends and foresights have been left out of the scope regarding them as

a constant stable force in the formulation of the scenarios. Also, information needs and issues

regarding the individual traveller are identified, relating the trends and forecasts to the

scenarios. Subsequently the scenarios are presented, featuring the fictional Gates family

which consists of various types of travellers. Each scenario features one type of travel and is

represented by one of the family members.

Implications of the scenarios for the tourists, the tourism sector and the technology sector are

presented. In conclusion there is emphasised that the given scenarios are merely possibilities

for the future, intended to open the eyes and minds of those involved in tourism. The next step

is to envision own future possibilities, to apply scenarios of mobile communication

technology to their company or organization, to their product or service, to their sector, to

their competitors, to their customers and to their vision. Such an approach will feed creative

minds in realizing innovative tourism services in the future. ‘The future is what you make of

it, so make it a good one.’


Acknowledgements

There are a few people I would like to thank for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, I would like to thank my Supervisor, Theo de Haan. Without his knowledge,

perceptiveness and keen sense for oversight this thesis would still be a jumble of random

ideas.

I would also like to thank Arent van ‘t Spijker for inspiring my choice for the topic of this

thesis and the enlightening discussion on its contents (and for paying for the drinks in the

process) Also Arie van Eeden for his insightful contribution to our brainstorm session.

I would further like to thank my friends Rixt Hiemstra and Rob Holland who I could

occasionally turn to for the translation of the odd Dutch proverb the rest of my friends whose

encouragements during the past year really meant a lot.

My special gratitude goes out to my loving girlfriend Lotte Gout for her patience, faith and

support. She has given me the strength and discipline to see through the writing of this thesis,

especially during difficult final stages.

Finally I would like to thank the people at Google who provided me with the wonderful tools

to efficiently exploit the seemingly infinite resources available on the World Wide Web.

Breda, December 2005


Table of contents

CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................. 1

§1.1 MOTIVATION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 §1.2 BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................................... 1 §1.3 FOCUS OF THE THESIS .......................................................................................................................... 2 §1.4 GOAL AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS........................................................................................................ 3 §1.5 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................... 4 §1.6 LIMITATIONS........................................................................................................................................ 5

CHAPTER 2 - TOURISM AND TECHNOLOGY ....................................................................................... 6

§2.1 TOURISM AND MOBILE COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY ....................................................................... 6 §2.2 ADOPTION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES ....................................................................................... 8 §2.3 ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGY IN TOURISM ............................................................................................ 10

CHAPTER 3 - PRESENTATION OF THE DATA ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS ...................... 12

§3.1 MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................................................ 12 §3.1.1 Mobile phone technologies....................................................................................................... 13 §3.1.2 GPS........................................................................................................................................... 18 §3.1.3 Bluetooth .................................................................................................................................. 19 §3.1.4 WiFi.......................................................................................................................................... 20 §3.1.5 RFID......................................................................................................................................... 20 §3.1.6 MP3 .......................................................................................................................................... 22 §3.1.7 Speech Recognition .................................................................................................................. 22

§3.2 DEVICES USING THESE TECHNOLOGIES .............................................................................................. 22 §3.2.1 Mobile phones .......................................................................................................................... 22 §3.2.2 Laptop computers ..................................................................................................................... 24 §3.2.3 Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) ......................................................................................... 24 §3.2.4 Hybrids; converging several technologies ............................................................................... 25

§3.3 CURRENT USE OF MOBILE COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES IN TOURISM........................................... 26 §3.3.1 Pre-visit phase: planning ......................................................................................................... 27 §3.3.2 Tourist activity phase: visit ...................................................................................................... 28 §3.3.3 Post-visit phase: reminiscing.................................................................................................... 38

CHAPTER 4 - THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS........................................................................ 39

§4.1 SCENARIO PLANNING: JUSTIFICATION FOR THE CHOICE ...................................................................... 40 §4.2 TIME AND SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS .................................................................................................... 41 §4.3 MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS ...................................................................................................................... 42 §4.4 BASIC TRENDS AND FORESIGHTS......................................................................................................... 45 §4.5 SCENARIO THEMES.............................................................................................................................. 57

CHAPTER 5 - SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................ 64

§5.1 PHIL GATES: REGULAR BUSINESS TRAVELLER.................................................................................... 65 §5.2 PHIL GATES: MEETINGS, CONVENTIONS AND CONGRESSES ................................................................ 66 §5.3 PHIL GATES: INCENTIVE HOLIDAY ...................................................................................................... 67 §5.4 JILL GATES: BEACH HOLIDAY ............................................................................................................. 68 §5.5 WILL GATES: WINTER SPORTS............................................................................................................ 69 §5.6 KAREN GATES: NATURE HOLIDAY...................................................................................................... 70 §5.8 WILL GATES: ADVENTURE HOLIDAY .................................................................................................. 73 §5.9 JOHN GATES: TOURISM TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES .......................................................................... 73 §5.10 THE ENTIRE GATES FAMILY: VFR HOLIDAY ....................................................................................... 75 §5.11 SCENARIO CONSIDERATIONS............................................................................................................... 75

CHAPTER 6 - IMPLICATIONS AND FINAL CONCLUSIONS ............................................................ 77

§6.1 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TOURISTS....................................................................................................... 77 §6.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TOURISM SECTOR........................................................................................... 79 §6.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR ................................................................................... 83 §6.4 FINAL CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................................... 85


LITERATURE AND INTERNET SOURCES ................................................................................................. 86

APPENDIX 1 - GLOSSARY.......................................................................................................................... 92

APPENDIX 2 - TYPES OF FORECASTING .............................................................................................. 99

APPENDIX 3 - THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS (SCHOEMAKER, 1995) ........................... 103

APPENDIX 4 - PERSONAL COMMUNICATION DEVICE.................................................................. 108


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Chapter 1 - Introduction

In this chapter the topic of this thesis is introduced by providing a motivation for its choice,

giving a short background and narrowing down the topic in order to formulate a goal and

research questions. Finally the methodology of the process will be explained and the

limitations within which this thesis is set are made clear.

§1.1 Motivation

During my fourth year at NHTV University I attended a guest lecture about digital media in

the tourism sector from Arent van ‘t Spijker, a Dutch consultant in marketing and ICT. He

spoke about how the Internet has created a revolution in the tourism sector. I started to

wonder about what the next step in this digital revolution could be. His answer to my question

was that he saw opportunities in the mobile market, where one would be able to find any kind

of information, arrange any kind of activity or even interactively communicate with the

location itself from ones laptop, PDA or mobile phone. This communication would occur by

means of various communication technologies.

The possibilities intrigued me and I decided to choose this topic for my thesis. It enabled me

to combine both my interest in tourism and my interest in technology into one project.

Besides my personal motivations I was convinced that an explorative research containing a

series of scenarios of the integration of mobile communication technologies in tourism would

be valuable to anyone involved in tourism.

§1.2 Background

For most people living in today’s technological age, it is inevitable to ‘get connected’ one

way or another, be it through computers at home or work, or on-the-go, through mobile

devices such as mobile phones or PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants). At no other time in the

history of mankind was there such a immense amount of information available to so many

‘We don’t receive wisdom: we must discover it

for ourselves after a journey that no one can

take us or spare us.’

- Marcel Proust (French Novelist)


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people at any given moment; the rapid growth of the World Wide Web for example, makes

‘almost anything available to anyone, anywhere and anytime.’ (Negroponte, 1995)

Most technological innovations are initiated by industry driven projects, such as the invention

of the Internet in the United States in 1969 which was originally designed for military

purposes. Only in 1990 did the Internet as we know it now, become available to the general

public. A decade of unmatched innovation in information infrastructure followed. Nowadays

the Internet is a seemingly unlimited source of information that, together with the

development of a variety of computer-enabled devices, such as mobile phones and PDAs

creates a wide range of possibilities for its user to access information resources almost

anywhere. Examples range from simple SMS services, keeping the user updated on the latest

football scores to fully functional Global Positioning Systems within ones portable device,

able to guide its user anywhere he or she wants to go.

The steady pervasion of technologies within human society (Norman, 1999) and the potential

technology applications could profoundly change the way tourists engage in their recreational

needs and the way tourism services in general are consumed. These implications have been

studied and presented by several expert sources in the field of technology and tourism.

§1.3 Focus of the thesis

The field of communication technologies can roughly be divided into two main groups:

communication technologies utilized from stationary home or office computers (at time of

writing mainly Internet) and communication technologies utilized currently from mobile

devices such as mobile phones, PDAs and laptop computers. Because of the current

popularity of mobile phones and the fast developments in the mobile sector, this thesis

focuses on these mobile communication technologies. The use of communication

technologies from stationary devices however, is currently still a major part of the tourism

experience as a whole, especially during the pre-travel and post-travel phases of gathering

information and sharing the experience online. Because the two groups of communication

technologies are inevitably intertwined, the stationary group of communication technologies

will be incorporated into the thesis where necessary.

Besides focussing on mobile communication technologies in tourism, this thesis especially

focuses on consumer applications; how will the tourist use mobile communication


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technologies. Of course the tourist use of the device largely depends on the services that are

being offered by the supply side of tourism. This is exactly the reason why it is most

interesting to look at what the consumer will be able to use. The tourism suppliers need to

know what the consumer wants in order to satisfy their needs with their products and services.

By providing those involved in tourism with a possible view on the future use of mobile

communication technologies, this thesis translates consumer projections into implications for

the tourism and technology sector.

§1.4 Goal and research questions

The goal of this thesis is:

‘to explore and analyze the future possibilities for mobile communication technologies in the

tourism process, providing a range of future scenarios and conclude what their implications

are, in order to create awareness of these aspects amongst those involved in tourism.’

This suggests that there is a current lack of awareness and that there is a need for a solution to

this problem. The truth is that most people, including tourism and even technology experts, do

not realize how fast technologies are developing (Kurzweil, 2005). Most are still trying to

grasp the current technology revolution of the Internet, let alone efficiently implement it in

their business models and anticipate on future developments. Because of this state of

unawareness, this thesis intends to open the eyes and minds of those involved in tourism by

presenting scenarios of future possibilities of mobile communication technologies in tourism

which are based upon trends and opinions of expert from various fields.

The research questions are:

• What is the relation between tourism and mobile communication technology?

• What are the developments in mobile communication technology?

• What devices use these technologies?

• How are these technologies currently used in tourism?

• How will such technologies be used in the future?

• Why is scenario planning useful for envisioning this future?

• What is the timeframe for the scenarios?


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• What are the opinions of tourism and technology experts on the future of mobile

communication and tourism?

• What types of holiday and travel should be distinguished?

• Who are the main stakeholders?

• What are the scenarios in envisioning the future?

• What are the implications of these scenarios for the main stakeholders?

§1.5 Methodology

The lion’s share of information has been sourced through extensive desk research; literature,

articles, papers and essays provided an extensive array of information. Sources on forecasting

and futurology have been consulted in developing a vision for the future. Because of the

relative narrow field of study combining tourism and mobile communication technologies and

the fast pace of developments in the technology sector, most of the up-to-date sources was

found on the Internet. Many websites, discussion boards and forums are specialized in digital

technological developments. Also papers published in several (digital) periodicals proved

excellent resources for information. In order to mirror the collected theory against the realistic

and practical views, several experts in the fields of communication technology, transport and

tourism have been consulted. Discussions with Theo de Haan provided a clearer insight into

the tourism aspects of the matter while a discussion with Arent van ‘t Spijker, communication

technology expert, and another discussion with Arie van Swam, lecturer at NHTV, provided a

keen insight into the topic from an industry and communication technology standpoint.

Chapter one starts of by introducing the topic of this thesis, its motivation, background, goal

and research questions and methodology, ending within which limitations this thesis is

written.

In chapter two, the subject of the thesis is deepened by describing the linkages between

tourism and mobile communication technology followed by information on the adoption of

Information Technologies.

Chapter three provides a brief summary of the developments in mobile communication

technologies and some of the possible applications these technologies currently have within

the tourism sector. Because of the technical nature of this thesis and the non-technical


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background of many tourism experts, this background information provides an essential

foundation for the full comprehension of the thesis as a whole.

After this brief overview the thesis narrows down on the subject in chapter four and directs its

view forward into the future. Expert views and opinions will be presented, creating the basis

for the explorations of the future that follows. These possibilities on how mobile technologies

are likely to develop and what tourism will look like with these technologies integrated in

daily activities are presented in the form of a series of scenarios. These scenarios are

formulated in chapter five.

In chapter six, implications and conclusions are formulated based on the importance and

implications of the scenarios for those involved in tourism. The thesis will conclude by

providing some final considerations on the topic and suggestions for further research.

§1.6 Limitations

Obviously an important limitation is that nobody can predict what the future will be in five,

ten or twenty years from now. There are always factors that cannot be anticipated and which

can have profound influence on the way things turn out.

The scope of time in which this thesis has been written has proved to be limiting as well. It is

one of the reasons that there was chosen for the presented working method. More time would

have allowed a deeper knowledge of futurology processes and a more elaborate application on

the subject of this thesis.


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Chapter 2 - Tourism and technology

Chapter two gives insight in two important questions regarding the subject of this thesis:

mobile communication technologies in tourism. The first section explains the relation between

tourism and mobile communication technology and the second section provides a short

overview of theory on adoption of IT, briefly specifying this topic to tourism. This chapter’s

main intention is to provide background information leading up to the futurology section later

in the thesis.

§2.1 Tourism and mobile communication technology

Like this chapter’s citation from Mobilocity (2000) already reveals: ‘mobility is the essence

of both m-business and travel,’ it is the basis on which the relation between mobile

communication technology and tourism is firmly build: tourism is in fact in many cases

mobile business.

According to Benckendorff et al. (2005) ‘the increasing availability and flexibility of many

forms of technology offers a range of both opportunities and challenges in many sectors

including tourism. Technology is even frequently described as a key driver for increasing the

mobility of tourists, and therefore, for sustaining the growth of the tourism industry.’

An important part of technology in tourism is IT (Information Technology). Mobilocity

argues that ‘the mobile Internet follows closely on the heels of the PC-based web, which has

already begun to transform the travel industry. From the customer’s perspective, the Web has

been able to squeeze long-standing inefficiencies out of the travel industry’s value chain.’

‘This diffusion of ICT (Information Communication Technology) in the tourism industry

enables consumers to interact directly with tourism providers,’ and thus ‘empowers them, if

they so choose, to organize their own travel.’ (OECD, 2003; Page, 2004) Figure 2.1

exemplifies this change and illustrates the ‘consumer’s ability to directly interface’ with the

tourism providers without necessarily dealing with middle men.

‘Mobility is the essence of both m-business and

travel.’

- Mobilocity (2000)


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Figure 2.1 Value Chain Under Duress (Siemens Business Services in Mobilocity, 2000)

Through the use of the Internet, ‘consumers have already built experience in serving as their

own travel agent’, the logical evolution of the tourist is to increasingly ‘expect access to

comprehensive information and purchasing channels (Mobilocity, 2000).’ This is where the

mobile aspect of mobile communication technologies can improve the services currently

offered.

Tourism is restricted to location and time. This result in a situation that at a certain place some

information is needed which is not available at that time. Mobile connectivity to information

resources bridges that gap and enables the tourist to get the information right then and there

instead of waiting to reach a landline connection. Another aspect is that travel is a dynamic

process; many factors can influence the course of action. But when your itinerary is set, you

sometimes don’t have a choice but to adapt. Mobile communication technology again bridges

the gap between the immediate local wishes and the time he or she has to wait until reaching a

connection in order to act upon the desired change.

IT has some more advantages regarding the tourism sector. It has the ability to update its

information content without printing two million new copies of a handbook every two years.

An example of the necessity of up-to-date information in tourism is mentioned in Prestipino

and Schwabe (2005), illustrated through a personal anecdote (see boxed text).


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Benckendorff et al. (2005) agree with this statement and argue that tourist ‘as foreigners

where they are staying, are especially reliant on local advertising for events, etc.’

(Benckendorff et al. 2005) Or from a business traveller point of view: ‘where else but on a

business trip is it so essential to obtain time-relevant information and use it as the basis for

transactions, such as reservations and bookings?’ (i:FAO, 2001) Local, up-to-date information

available through mobile communication services is ideal in solving some of those little

annoyances of travel.

Prestipino and Schwabe (2005) however, argue that ‘professionally prepared content’ needed

to provide the traveller with such information, has proven to be ‘very difficult and expensive

to provide.’ They therefore take a different perspective on the offering of travel-related

information to tourists by describing the possibilities of online communities versus traditional

guidebooks. As tourists put high value on ‘insider’ travel information from other tourists their

stand on the advantages of up-to-date community information versus traditional printed

guidebooks is very valid. Especially when one looks at the success of online community

based services such as Wikipedia, travel tips in the online Thorn Tree Forum from Lonely

Planet and when one takes into account that the information from online communities is free

of charge.

§2.2 Adoption of Information Technologies

This section will give an overview of some of the relevant literature on this matter. The

explanations have been kept brief because the intention of this thesis is to create awareness of

the possibilities of mobile communication technologies. In order to focus specifically on that

goal, there is chosen take the adoption of this technology as a certain factor.

‘Arriving in Fortaleza Airport, he looked in vain for the direct and comfortable bus to the beach areas described in the guidebook. According to the official tourism information at the airport, this connection has not been served for almost three years, and the official complained about the everyday crowd of tourists enquiring for this bus, because it is still mentioned in many guidebooks.’

- Prestipiono and Schwabe (2005)


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Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations theory (1995)

‘The Diffusion of Innovation theory by Rogers (1995), suggests that characteristics of

innovations help to persuade potential adopters to embrace or reject an innovation and has

often served as a basis for studies within this field.’ (Rogers, 1995 in Pääjärvi, 2004)

According to Pääjärvi (2004) ‘Rogers’ framework declares five perceived attributes of an

innovation that will affect the rate at which it is adopted in a social system. The five

innovative attributes are relative advantage, compatibility, trialability, observability, and

complexity. Relative advantage is concerned with the degree to which an innovation is

perceived as being better than the products or services it is meant to replace, e.g. in terms of

costs or convenience. The compatibility attribute represents the degree to which an innovation

is perceived as consistent with past values, experiences and the needs of the potential

adopter.’ ‘The third innovative attribute of trialability refers to the degree an innovation can

be tested prior to purchase. The observability attribute describes the extend to which an

innovation is visible to potential adopters through other members of a social system.’ ‘Finally,

the complexity attribute indicates the degree to which an innovation is perceived as relatively

difficult to understand and use.’ Pääjärvi (2004) ads a sixth attribute to Rogers’ theory being

‘the perception of risk associated with the purpose and use of a product and service.’ (Lee et

al, 2003 in Pääjärvi, 2004)

The e-Adoption Ladder

‘A study sponsored by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) in 2003, E-commerce

Impact Study of the Tourism Sector in the UK, noted a high level of e-commerce adoption and

set out the six steps to adoption.’ These steps where visually represented in ‘The e-Adoption

Ladder’ (Figure 2.2.). ‘The six steps show the different stages of development through which

companies must pass to become fully e-business ready if they are to engage in the e-travel

market.’ (Page, 2004)


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Figure 2.2 The e-Adoption Ladder (Page, 2004)

§2.3 Adoption of technology in tourism

Tourists in general, are more inclined to use mobile communication technologies because

they are, ‘typically equipped with such devices as world receivers and digital cameras, and are

also usually more comfortable with technology than the average person.’ ‘Their wish to

document their own experiences and to report on them’ for example, makes them ‘especially

receptive to mobile multimedia communications.’ (Benckendorff et al. 2005)

Sheldon (1997) suggests that there are ‘two polar responses to technology’ amongst tourists.

She describes a ‘high tech/ high touch paradigm.’ Travellers grouped under ‘high tech’, have

an expectation of higher levels of automation. ‘High tech travellers appreciate the application

of technology that delivers more efficient travel experiences. This market seeks out

entertainment and attractions that use technology in the creation of the experience.’ The ‘high

touch’ travellers on the other hand, look at ‘technology as being destructive to the tourism

experience. They would seek out vacations that would allow them to escape from the modern

world by providing more personalised human interactions.’

Sheldon (1997) recommends however, that ‘business catering for the high touch customers

should not ignore technology, but should use it in the background to support high levels of

personalised service.’ Anwar and Hamilton (2005) argue that, it is to this type of adoption of

new technology, that the tourism industry owes its current success.


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Exemplifying the current adoption of technology in society however is a news article on the

website of Dutch daily newspaper ‘De Telegraaf’. They mention research from Intel which

stated that a reserved attitude towards digital consumer technology in the late 1990s has been

replaced by mass acceptation, illustrated by the fact that technologies such as wireless

networks and MP3-players have been rapidly accepted by society. (Telegraaf, 22-11-2005) In

concurrence with this view, Anwar and Hamilton state that ‘bio-science and technology have

distorted early definitions of normalcy. The human lifespan has nearly doubled in a century;

bionic ears and artificial heart implants are now accepted, and brain implants are allowing

quadriplegics to control computers with thought.’ (Bain and Cool, 2005 in Anwar and

Hamilton, 2005)

Now that the relation between mobile communication technology and tourism has been

established and adoption theory has been covered, the next chapter continues by providing a

theoretical background on the technical developments in mobile communication.


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Chapter 3 - Presentation of the data on current developments

The quote above sums up at what incredible rate communication technology has developed in

the past decades. Most remarkable is that there is no end to that development in sight. This

chapter starts with a short introduction of some developments in mobile communication

technology. Next, the main communication technologies currently available and a summary

on selected available devices are presented. The information is not the full range of

technologies but a selection made by the author of this thesis meant to provide the reader with

a basic foundation on the technical background of the subject and some insight in the matter

at hand, this choice is justified because of the fact that this is a tourism thesis and is not

intended to provide a directory of mobile communication technologies.

The second part of this chapter will present the reader with some examples of technologies

where they have been implemented in both test- as well as commercial projects around the

world. Again, a selection has been made by the author that is not comprehensive but reflects

different parts of the tourism sector in order to provide some insight into the subject.

§3.1 Mobile communication developments

The following paragraphs cover the main communication developments in use today. Firstly

mobile phone technology is covered. But there are other technologies that enable

communication to take place. Some of these technologies, like Bluetooth, are implemented in

some mobile phones and widespread amongst users, while others such as RFID (Radio

Frequency Identification) are still mainly in development phases for commercial use in

communication.

‘If the auto industry had done what the

computer industry has done in the past 30

years, a Rolls-Royce would cost $2.50 and get

2 million miles per gallon.’

- Anonymous


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§3.1.1 Mobile phone technologies

According to some people, the history of communication technology began when the Greeks

started to use carrier pigeons in 700 BC. For two millennia this remained the cutting edge of

communication ‘technology’ until only recently, it was followed by a rapid series of changes

over a period of only 170 years. This development started in 1837 through the introduction of

the telegraph, the introduction of the telephone in 1876, the radio in 1895 and television in the

1920s. 1947 was an important year when Claude Shannon created a mathematical theory,

which proved to be the basis for modern digital communications.

During the 1960s the first satellite telecommunications were developed and in 1966 for the

first time a fibre optic was used in the transmission of telephone signals. The year 1969 saw

the beginning of the Internet era with its initial development for the United States military.

The first satellite of the Global Positioning System, GPS, was launched in 1978 and the

concept of the World Wide Web (WWW) was introduced in 1989. After the Internet became

available to the general public it developed into a tool to obtain all kinds of information, to

establish networks, to send messages, the tool for e-commerce etcetera (De Vriendt et al.,

2002)

The development of mobile phone technology is commonly divided into generations: G’s,

starting with 1G in 1981 and up to 3G at time of writing. The various generations are briefly

discussed in the following section.

1G

In 1981 the first-generation mobile phone network (1G) was introduced in Scandinavia: the

Nordic Mobile Telephone, NMT, system. The first mobile users used car phones with the

Advanced Mobile Phone Service, or AMPS. This first-generation analogue network was

cutting edge at the time, but it soon became notorious for its bad call quality and even worse,

AMPS calls can be picked up by police scanners, allowing anyone to eavesdrop into its

transmissions. This is due to the fact that the AMPS calls travel through the air without any

scrambling or encryption. AMPS still is available today on some CDMA (Code Division

Multiple Access) phones but it is largely fading as a technology.


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2G

The second-generation (2G) networks emerged in the 1990s in two variations: GSM, the

dominant technology in Europe and Asia and CDMA, popular in the United States and a few

other countries. These 2G networks spread voice calls across several wireless spectrums,

ensuring more reliable connections that are much harder for hackers to intercept. Another big

improvement over 1G networks is that CDMA and GSM networks are also capable of sending

data along with voice signals, making it possible for such features as text messaging (SMS),

caller ID, and conference calling. (Patterson, 2005)

Before network providers could move on to faster network technologies they had to bridge the

gap between slow 2G service and fast 3G with ‘2.5G’ network enhancements. 2.5G Networks

let you download ring tones, listen to short audio clips, send Multimedia Messages (MMS), or

surf the Internet, albeit slowly. One of these services is GPRS (General Packet Radio

Service), which is capable of transmitting and receiving data at an average of about 30Kbps to

40Kbps, which is comparable to a slow standard 56K Internet dial-up service in your home.

Another service made possible by 2.5G networks is EDGE (Enhanced Data GSM

Environment), another GSM enhancement that manages about 90Kbps on average, or almost

twice as fast as a dial-up Internet connection in homes. On the CDMA side is 1xRTT, an early

version of CDMA2000, which manages a speed of 60Kbps to 80Kbps. The next step, of

course, is 3G and beyond. (Patterson 2005)

3G

In 2002 the third-generation (3G) phone networks were introduced. There are two main types

of 3G technologies: UMTS (Universal Mobile Telephone Service), which is rolled out over

existing GSM networks, and CDMA2000, which brings 3G speeds to CDMA networks. Both

UMTS and CDMA2000 are available in most countries at the end of 2005. Speeds for both

should be about DSL quality, which is the speed of faster Internet connections in homes. The

speed of these systems enables mobile phones to provide wireless connections to other

phones, Internet and different types of services. One can send multimedia messages, text and

data as well as fax much faster and easier. Digital cameras are included into phones enabling

videoconferencing, and on-demand video will enable the mobile phone user to watch

television-shows or news broadcasts on his or her mobile phone.


15

4G

Due to an increasing demand for higher speed on mobile devices, discussions are also starting

of 3.5G and 4G technologies such as HSDPA and WiMax, which should provide cable

modem and gigabyte Ethernet speeds for cell phones and other mobile devices. Higher speeds

will improve the ability to support advanced and wideband multimedia services, including

email, file transfers, and distribution services like radio, TV and software downloads.

According to Prof. Lu from the Fourth Generation Mobile Forum (4GMF), mobile

communication devices will therefore be the major person-machine interface in the future

instead of the PC.

The following two pages contain figures intended to visualize the information stated above in

an effort to clarify the matter and provide an birds-eye view of the developments.

In figure 2.1 one can observe the change in data transfer speeds that are related to the various

generations of mobile technologies. GSM being the slowest in the 2G networks followed by a

upgrade of that same system to 2.5G using GPRS technology for data transfer. Currently the

UMTS, EDGE and EGPRS networks that enable fast connections on mobile phones are also

making functions like videoconferencing and on-demand video broadcasts possible.

Figure 2.2 gives an overview of the possibilities and uses of 2G and 2.5G networks and how

3G networks will change these possibilities and uses. Figure 2.3 gives a short summarization

of the developments in mobile technology generations (G’s) and their respective speeds and

uses.


16

Figure 3.1 Data rate evolution (Falciasecca, 2000)

Figure 3.2 Growth of Wireless Data and 3G Services (Falciasecca, 2000)


17

Services and speeds

1G 2G 2.5G 3G 3.5G 4G and beyond

Technology AMPS GSM

CDMA

GPRS

1xRTT

EDGE

UMTS

1xEV-DO

HSDPA (upgrade for

UMTS)

1xEV-DV

WiMax*

Speeds n/a Less than

20Kbps

30Kbps to

90Kbps

144Kbps

to 2Mbps

384Kbps to

14.4Mbps

100Mbps to

1Gbps

Features Analog

(voice only)

Voice; SMS;

conference

calls; caller

ID; push to

talk

MMS;

images; Web

browsing;

short

audio/video

clips; games,

applications,

and ring tone

downloads

Full-

motion

video;

streaming

music; 3D

gaming;

faster Web

browsing

On-demand video;

videoconferencing

High-quality

streaming video;

high-quality

videoconferencing

; Voice-over-IP

telephony

*WiMax has been mentioned as a possible 4G technology, but no standards have been set.

Figure 3.3 Services and speeds (Patterson, 2005)


18

GSM positioning

Another possible use of GSM is GSM positioning; determining your location through the

GSM system. Any GSM network is divided into cells and every cell has its own Base Station

(BTS) for transferring information. The reach of these cells overlap ensuring optimal network

coverage. There are various ways in which a GSM signal can be located using the information

from the BTSs by checking the GSM devices reception relative to various BTSs in its

proximity. Examples of some applications that are imaginable or already exist are:

- to retrieve information about hotels, gas stations, restaurants, or other tourist attractions that

are located in the area,

- people can be located for rescuing in emergency situations,

- the GSM network’s positioning capabilities can be used in navigation systems,

- local news, information and weather reports, etcetera.

Figure 3.4 Technique for positioning with GSM (Groote, 2005)

§3.1.2 GPS

GPS (Global Positioning System) works through the use of satellites. GPS is based upon a

network of 27 orbiting satellites (including 3 spares) which were placed into orbit by the U.S.

Department of Defence. They continuously send signals and receivers can picks these signals

up in order to calculate their position. The system was initially designed for military purposes

but in the 1980s, the United States government made the system available for civilian use.

GPS does not rely on any weather conditions and it works anywhere in the world for 24 hours

a day. In order to use GPS there are no subscription fees needed, nor are there setup-charges

to hold into account.


19

Figure 3.5 GPS Satellites in orbit

(lordpercy.com, 2005)

According to canalys.com (Canalys is a leading provider of consulting and market analysis

for the converged high-tech industry, its work spanning IT, consumer electronics and

telecommunications.) the demand for GPS navigation solutions has given a huge boost to the

EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) handheld market since 2003, when the solutions

were bundled with the devices. Shipments continued to increase dramatically in 2004 as GPS

was integrated into handhelds and prices continued to fall dramatically. Strong competition

has emerged from competitively-priced fully integrated transferable devices that offer

dedicated solutions. On-board and off-board solutions are also appearing for smart phones.

(canalys.com, 2005)

§3.1.3 Bluetooth

First developed by Ericsson, then formalized in 1999, Bluetooth is an International wireless

standard for communication between various electronic devices such as a mobile phone and a

laptop. Advantages of Bluetooth are for example that one does not need to carry around a

briefcase full of cables to connect all digital devices, and an office environment can be

designed without wondering where all the wires will go. It is an inexpensive method of

connecting between devices and because of its plug and play interface Bluetooth does not

require anything special to make it work. The devices find one another and strike up a

conversation with only the need for authorisation from the user.

Examples of Bluetooth use are taking a picture using a camera phone. Send it via Bluetooth to

a laptop to adjust the colour and print size and transmit the picture from the laptop to a


20

Bluetooth enabled printer. Other examples are to synchronise a calendar from a PDA or

laptop using a desktop computer or using a cell phone as a modem to connect to the Internet

with a laptop and download music. This music can then be sent to a Bluetooth enabled stereo

system. (Laptopshop.co.uk, 2005)

§3.1.4 WiFi

Another communication technology is WiFi (Wireless Fidelity), WiFi, as the name already

reveals, provides an opportunity for mobility and an escape from the constriction of cables in

a network environment. This technology enables people to access a network connection, or at

least access email and the web, as long as they're within a coverage area. In many cases this

means freedom within an office environment but as the number of so called WiFi ‘hotspots’

increase, that liberty expands from just within the walls of the traditional workplace to cafés,

airports and even open spaces in some cities. (Newman, 2003)

The main difference with the previously mentioned Bluetooth technology, which is basically

capable of the same things, is that WiFi has a much greater range, it is able to receive a strong

signal within a range of 100 metres from the transmitter whereas Bluetooth is often limited to

only 10. Of course if the signal has to travel further or is blocked by obstacles, such as walls

or areas of radio interference, without additional transmitters to boost the signal, the data rate

becomes slower. Because they are based on wireless technology, Wi-Fi networks can be set

up and changed more quickly and easily than wired networks. (CNET, September 2003)

‘By 2006, research firm Gartner expects 99 million WiFi users and 89,000 public WiFi access

points around the world. Starbucks has already WiFi'd 2000 coffee shops in the US and by the

end of the year 300 McDonald's restaurants plan to offer an hour of free high-speed wireless

access to anyone who buys a combination meal.’ And ‘according to Jupiter Research (March

2003) an estimated 57 per cent of US companies support wireless networks and another 22

per cent plan to head there within the next year.’ (Newman, 2003)

§3.1.5 RFID

One of the upcoming developments is the at time of writing much-debated Radio Frequency

Identification or RFID technology.


21

RFID has already been around since World War II and many of us have been using RFID

technology for years. The technology is used in key cards that allow us access to our offices

or dashboard units that allow us to speed through highway toll booths. RFID chips can be

loaded, read and rewritten with information much like flash memory chips. Only they are

smaller and have the ability to do so themselves through wireless radio communication. Some

examples of the utilisation possibilities of RFID are:

- tracking postal packages;

- functioning as an e-wallet;

- ‘self-scanning’ tags on groceries, deducting the payable amount from your

supermarket credit when passing through a RFID reading gate.

The revolution in RFID comes from the fact that that tags and readers are only the first part of

RFID implementation; they serve as the enablers for automated transmission of information.

To receive RFID benefits, the technology hardware will have to be backed up by data

management systems. That shift in innovation will be enabled by the network. In other words,

with the development and integration of fast networks the information that RF-tags can

communicate can be expanded considerably. (Matthews, 2005)

Of course there are also voices that warn us for RFID’s possibilities for ‘Big Brother’ to track

our every move and action throughout our entire lives because we'll be wearing, eating and

carrying objects that are carefully designed to do so. In ‘RF-tags: Big Brother in small

packages’ (McCullagh, 2003) there is stated that ‘it becomes unnervingly easy to imagine a

scenario where everything you buy that's more expensive than a Snickers will sport RF-tags.’

Which raises the unsettling thought of being tracked through our personal possessions.

Imagine that the local H&M puts a RF-tag in jeans and links its purchase to the buyer’s credit

card. The shop will recognize the buyer when he returns through the tag in the jeans, not only

does it know his name but also his preference in clothing and even his spending pattern at that

specific store. And when everything is tagged just like in the movie ‘Minority Report’ (2002)

starring Tom Cruise: stores everywhere will flash advertisements on screens that are based on

personal preferences and spending patterns. (McCullagh, 2003) Such concerns are justified

and basic regulations have to be implemented to protect the privacy and safety of the

consumer. The RFID technology however harnesses very interesting yet still mainly

unexploited possibilities for both industries and consumers alike.


22

§3.1.6 MP3

MPEG-1 Layer 3 (MP3) is a way of compressing digital music 10:1 without a noticeable loss

in quality. Besides its use in (il)legal music distribution through the Internet, MP3 has been

steadily replacing tapes and other sound carriers as the medium for audio-tours of various

attractions. The main advantage is that an MP3 file, unlike tapes and CD’s endures no ware

and tare, only the device playing the file does. MP3 can also be easily integrated into other

digital media presentations making it more diverse in its use.

§3.1.7 Speech Recognition

Speech Recognition allows a user to use his or her voice as an input device. It can be used to

dictate text into or give commands to a digital device (such as opening application programs,

pulling down menus, or making phone calls). New applications can recognize speech at up to

160 words per minute. Although the software has become more accurate some users still have

problems using it because of the way they speak. (Adaptive Technology Resource Centre,

2005) According to www.voicerecognition.com ‘one of the many of the trends… is more

mobile, portable and wireless options for remote dictation.’ (voicerecognition.com, 2005)

§3.2 Devices using these technologies

All these technologies are worthless unless they are combined with some sort of digital device

that actually uses them. A RF-tag, for example is worthless unless it is loaded with

information that can be read and/or changed somewhere else. Bluetooth, GPS, GSM, all of

these technologies need to run on certain devices in order for them to have any operational

value. The devices that are most commonly used in everyday activities are briefly described

in this paragraph.

§3.2.1 Mobile phones

Since the 1950’s the mobile phones have undergone drastic technological as well as cosmetic

changes. From big and bulky to small, light and sleek, from single-function devices to

multifunctional and multimedia platforms.


23

Figure 3.6 Evolution of mobile phones

During the past twenty years, mobile phones have changed from being rare and expensive

business tools to widespread low-cost personal items. In many prosperous countries, land-

lines are now often outnumbered by mobiles; most adults and many children own mobile

phones and for young adults it is not uncommon to own just a mobile phone instead of having

a land-line in their homes. The penetration of mobile phones is increasing globally; especially

in developing countries, where fixed-line infrastructure is poorly developed. (Wikipedia,

2005) ‘According to the GSM Association (2004), there were more than 1.4 billion wireless

phone subscribers in March 2004. In addition, London-based EMC (2004), a subsidiary of

Informa UK and a well-known provider of data on global cellular telephony and mobile

telecommunications market, has predicted that the market will expand to reach two billion

subscribers by mid-2006.’ (Kauffman and Techatassanasoontorn, 2005) This means that 1.4

billion users in 2004 where about 22% of the world population, and the projected 2 billion

users in 2006 will account for about 30% of the world population.

Figure 3.7 Worldwide Wireless Phone Subscribers (Millions), March 2004 (www.gsmworld.com, 2004 in

Kauffman and Techatassanasoontorn, 2005)


24

Because of this high percentage of mobile phone users and the fact that their numbers are still

increasing, they represent an enormous potential market for services that can be offered

through mobile phones. A big advantage is that many people already own the device and are

familiar with using it.

§3.2.2 Laptop computers

In short, a laptop is a computer that can be used on-the-road; it can be folded up and carried

around. The first laptop was invented by Adam Osborne in 1981, called the ‘Osborne 1’. It

was fitted with a five-inch screen, a modem port, two 5 1/4 floppy drives and a battery pack

for mobile usage. It also contained a collection of bundled software programs. Over time

these specifications have evolved into light, high-speed laptops equipped with super fast

processors, DVD burners, wireless network capabilities, Bluetooth connectivity, high

definition screens with 3D graphics, etcetera.

Figure 3.8 Evolution of laptops

§3.2.3 Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs)

PDAs are mostly pen-based hand-held computers which where first released in 1993 by

Apple Computer Inc. John Sculley (Apple Computer Inc.) predicted that PDAs would become

omnipresent tools that would be able to store phone numbers, function as a calendar, hold

notes, and send and receive data wirelessly. Off course the first models could not do all of

these things yet but over the years, PDAs have been expanding their possibilities and today

Sculley’s predictions have come true and most new PDAs are able to do all of the things

mentioned above and more. The current generation of PDAs is equipped with high resolution

touch screens, fast processors and large storage-capabilities in order to facilitate the

incorporated multimedia functions. (Handago, 2005)


25

The next step in the evolution of PDAs is to be expected in achieving full PDA performance

in smart phones, this will be further elaborated upon later in the next paragraph.

Figure 3.9 Evolution of PDAs

§3.2.4 Hybrids; converging several technologies

In recent years we have seen the convergence of several electronic functions within one single

device. Mobile phones for example, have begun sporting digital cameras, organisers and

MP3-players. PDAs can also be used as multimedia players, playing anything from music to

full feature movies.

According to Skott Lee of LG Electronics ‘it is clear that IT industry opinion sees the mobile

handset as the ubiquitous and most appealingly versatile device of the future. It makes sense

that a single converged device will offer functions and convenience which make it far

preferable to carrying around a bag full of separate devices.’ (3g.co.uk, 2004)

In case of the mobile phone; was once its sole function to be a convenience device for on the

move communication, a survey conducted by world-leading 3G handset manufacturer, LG

Electronics, at Busan ITU Telecom Asia 2004, indicates that it is likely to replace an array of

other electronic devices by the end of 2006. According to the survey this convergence of

applications on mobile handsets could have a major impact on the individual markets for

digital cameras and video cameras. (3g.co.uk, 2004)

‘Of 228 respondents from the IT industry and IT media, 95 per cent said that it was either

very likely or somewhat likely (73% and 22% respectively) that consumers will eventually

choose a single converged 3G device (combining phone, camera, video camera, MP3 and

others) over multiple devices. Of these, 72% expect to see the transition within the next two

years and 24% within 3-5 years.’ (3g.co.uk, 2004)


26

§3.3 Current use of mobile communication technologies in tourism

This paragraph presents some mobile communication technologies in tourism following a

defined structure of stages in the tourism process: planning, tourist activity and reminiscing.

The types of technologies have been selected from a tourist point of view: How can a tourist

use a mobile communication device during the three phases?

Phases in travel experience Subdivision Examples

Pre-visit

Planning

Information gathering - Mobile Internet search-engines

Booking and ticketing - SMS ticketing services for

transport, dinner, accommodation

and attractions

Other preparations - E-books on PDA

- Travel programs on PDA

Visit

Tourist activity

Information and routing

- Digital guidebooks:

- e-books

- dedicated software

- Digital guides:

- Routing guides

- MP3 audio-tours

- SMS service messages:

- upon entry of a country or

city

- SMS information contract

Booking and ticketing - SMS ticketing services for

transport, dinner, accommodation

and attractions

Other use

- GPS navigation in cars

- getting around with RFID

- taking pictures/ movie clips

- staying in contact with home/

work

- sharing information with other

travellers

- Geocaching

Post-visit

Reminiscing

- sharing pictures/ movie clips and

stories on a mobile device by

showing or sending them

Figure 3.10 Examples of mobile communication technologies (Adapted from Nugent and Sharma, 2005)


27

§3.3.1 Pre-visit phase: planning

This phase encompasses all activities related to the tourism activity at hand up to the actual

point of embarking on the trip.

Information gathering

This search for information can be done through mobile Internet devices on-the-go using

Internet search-engines like Google, Yahoo, Wanadoo/Voila, MSN and AOL.

Booking and ticketing

Tourists can use a mobile phone to buy tickets in advance through SMS services known as

Mobile Ticketing, thus not actually having to go to a sales point to obtain tickets for

attractions or modes of transport.

Mobile Ticketing is where companies offer tickets to events through a buying process

accessible on a mobile phone. Basically it works by sending the reselling company a coded

message containing information on the type of ticket, the time and date and possibly payment

information such as credit card numbers (payment is also possible through ones phone bill or

on credit for registered users). The next step is that after validation of the sent message, the

reselling company sends a coded message back containing the mobile ticket in the form of an

SMS or other message. This method of selling tickets is being implemented across the world

with some examples being:

- the Dutch company Beep!, which sells tickets to concerts, movies and other events

through SMS, this company has recently (October, 2005) been bought by Dutch

telecommunication company KPN;

- Dutch railway operator NS, has successfully tested but not yet implemented SMS

ticketing for their rail services;

- The Vienna State Opera operates a SMS ticketing service offering tickets to their

shows through SMS;

- In may 2004, Australian airline Jetstar launched JetSMS, allowing pre-registered users

to make ticketless bookings 24 hours a day with the airline by SMS;

- UK based bus company ‘AirCoach’ offer their bus tickets through an SMS ticketing

service;


28

- and the Indian movie theatre chain ‘FAME’, offers SMS ticketing through their

‘FAME Wireless Ticketing’ system.

By using this technology to sell tickets, these companies save money on space for a ticket box

and staff who would usually be needed, thus in theory allowing them to lower the prices of

their tickets.

Another way of booking in advance is booking accommodation, tickets to attractions or

making dinner reservations through the use of mobile Internet on an enabled handset. Almost

all airlines as well as many accommodations around the world operate online reservation

systems, in theory all of them are also accessible through mobile Internet connections, thus

already available.

Other preparations

Other forms of preparing for a travel using mobile communication devices are loading e-

books onto ones PDA for leisure/ business reading or travel information. Some travel aid

programs are also available for PDAs that for example help with ones packing-list, currency

conversions or time zone calculations.

§3.3.2 Tourist activity phase: visit

The touring phase is when the actual tourist activity takes place. From the moment of

embarkation to the moment of return. This can be a multiple day holiday but also a visit to the

local museum. Examples of mobile communication technology in this phase are subdivided in

three groups of application possibilities: information and routing; booking and ticketing; and

general use.

Information and routing

In their tourist behaviour tourists mostly use two frequently available sorts of publications:

guidebooks and maps which are often used in combination (Brown and Chalmers, 2003).

‘Guidebooks provide in a standardised and catalogued way information about attractions and

places of interest in a city (accommodation, pub/bars, night clubs, restaurants, museums etc.).

Maps are used for both localising where things are while searching for particular attractions or

browsing the names of attractions for given locations. Using maps with guidebooks solves the

problem of where attractions are and what attractions are in a given location. Using


29

guidebooks as a reference, tourists find out on a map where the listed places are located, the

approximate distance between two different places and how to navigate from one place to

another. Using map as a reference, tourists can search in a guidebook relevant descriptions of

places that they found on the map.’ (Dunlop et al., 2004)

But carrying around thick books containing information of the area can be a hassle, it is much

more convenient to store all this information on a mobile communication device such as a

PDA and remain just as easy searchable and accessible as a printed book. Especially when

one considers the possibilities additional technologies such as GPS, Bluetooth, RFID and

WiFi offer over conventional books. For example: a paper guidebook is not able to pinpoint

your location, guide you to your destination or pay your entrance fee. A digital guidebook

could be capable of all these things and more. One has to keep in mind however, that ‘the

most important elements of successful tourist information systems are the availability of

quality data content and a user interface allowing easy, accurate and quick access to that

content.’ (Dunlop et al. 2004)

There are various projects already in use around the world and on various scales. Some guide

tourists around entire parts of a city using various technologies and others merely explain

parts of a historical site by sticking to a interactive guidebook relying on the ‘browsing’

capabilities of the tourist. The following paragraphs present a few examples.

Two types of digital products can be distinguished: digital guidebooks, containing only

information for the user to look up and secondly, the digital guide, also containing

information but with the added capability of guiding the user through the area using

positioning and routing technology.

Many of the publishers of tourist guides are already experimenting with electronic versions of

their texts in digital guidebooks; according to Liebhold (2004) ‘they are underestimating the

ways these devices can alter where we go and what we see.’ The main reason for this

underestimation is that other technologies such as GSM, GPS, Bluetooth, WiFi, and RFID,

when incorporated in the handheld devices and the guidance software, can evolve in a digital

guide, designed to involve the user in the exchange of information and change the information

according to the user’s preference and surroundings. The following section contains a few

examples of such products that are introduced or developed by various organisations.


30

Digital guidebooks

- e-(guide)books

E-books are electronic versions of books that can be read on a mobile communication device

using appropriate reader software. The usability of e-books depends greatly on the

possibilities of the reader software; some programs allow the reader to bookmark and

highlight various parts of the text for the easy re-location of information while others lack any

extra options besides a basic automatic return where you’ve left off functionality. E-books can

be downloaded from various Internet sites; some are paid for others are free of charge. An

example of a e-(guide)book is: Costa Rica by Bus by John R. Wood. It contains up-to-date

information on the Costa Rican public bus system.

- Dedicated software

Another sort of digital guidebooks is dedicated software. These are programs which function

as a guidebook, they can be installed and opened on mobile communication devices such as

PDAs and they often function much like one would browse a website with links to text,

images, maps and the like. Examples of such software are:

Lonely Planet

Being one of the most popular guidebooks in the industry, Lonely Planet is not very open

about what their intentions on the mobile market are. A few years ago they were quick of the

mark with their CityPicks software (previously branded as CitySynch) when they released

their first versions in 2001, but now it seems that only registered users of Australian Optus

Zoo mobile phone provider can download the Lonely Planet CityPicks guides. According to

the Optus Zoo website: ‘Lonely Planet CityPicks are destination guides for more than 40

cities across Australia, Asia, Europe, USA and Africa. Featuring at least 50 recommendations

per city, CityPicks take the hard work out of tracking down the best restaurants, bars,

nightlife, shops and hotels by keeping them immediately available on your handset.’ (Optus,

2005)

On the Lonely Planet website the link to their mobile-section is removed and it is nearly

impossible to find any other substantial product information on the Internet.

(Lonelyplanet.com, 2005)


31

Rough Guides

Another guidebook big-shot, Rough Guides, however, dedicated an entire section of their

website to mobile users. It even has a small selection of mobile products on sale. The first

type being the previously discussed e-Books. The second product category is Digital Maps,

which are extensive maps of some selected cities incorporating information on hotels,

restaurants, sights and transport. Although the user can browse through the maps and click on

sights for more information, this is where the interactivity of the application ends. It does not

support any positioning possibilities, nor does it allow the user to take notes with certain items

on the map. (Roughguides.com, 2005)

Michelin Red Guide for PDA

Another straightforward application without positioning possibilities is the Hotel and

Restaurant guide from Michelin. The program is the mobile version of The Michelin Guide

and gives the user the Michelin expertise on venues such as Michelin-starred restaurants and

boutique hotels. The 2005 version of the program lists nearly 10,000 hotels and restaurants in

the major cities in Europe. (viamichelin.com, 2005)

VM Palm Guide (Malaysia)

An example of a guidebook application developed by a tourism organisation is the VM Palm

Guide program which can be downloaded at VirtualMalaysia.Com. VirtualMalaysia.com is a

commercial organisation which proclaims to be ‘an e-tourism portal that provides

acquaintance for discerning tourists hoping to capture a slice of Malaysia.’ And by

‘combining culture and technology, VirtualMalaysia.Com is the gateway to Malaysia's

tourism and travel destinations.’ (virtualmalaysia.com, 2005)

Among other services, the VM Palm Guide program can be downloaded for Palm OS enabled

PDAs and serves as an interactive travel guide to several destinations within Malaysia. It

features a database of those destinations; listing accommodations, restaurants, shopping

venues and events around the year. Extra features are a Bahasa phrase translator, helping the

user with some common Bahasa travel-phrases, some pictures of Malaysian scenery and a

currency converter. The utility also includes a simple map interface to show the user where a

state is located but it lacks communication capabilities such as positioning. The interactive

part of the application is limited to take notes with the places you visited or want to visit and

to checkmark places, hotels or restaurants for later reference.


32

Digital guides:

- Adelaide Digital Guidebook Test

An example of a digital guide, so with positioning and routing capabilities, is the Adelaide

Digital Guidebook. During the World Congress on Information Technology, 1700 IT experts

came together in Adelaide. A software program developed by two UniSA IT (software

engineering) students (Stephen Hillenbrand and Todd Simcock) was put into practice by

Motorola. It provided the attending experts with an interactive palm-sized guide to Adelaide.

According to Simcock: ‘the electronic tourist guidebook, which works with software

extensions to the regular handheld PDA, is a walking guide to food, wine, art galleries,

museums and retail outlets.’ He also states that ‘the software is designed to make it possible

for a graphic designer to insert maps and tourist information for any city in the world.’

Two important features of the guidebook are its GPS and its WiFi link to a wireless network.

For the test in Adelaide around 100 guidebooks were sold and Motorola made demonstration

models available for visitors to test during their stay in Adelaide.

The application allowed people attending the conference to access the Internet through the

PDA within the covered area. ‘The GPS connected guidebooks will allow people to take a

stroll down North Terrace and track where they are, which local restaurants or retail outlets

are nearby, where they can catch a movie, what is on display at the gallery or museum and a

host of other information matched to their location.’ ’The next phase of this research is to

enhance the GPS mode so that it is interactive with a person’s own scheduled diary

information. This will give your PDA the ‘smarts’ to cross-reference information, so that if

you are in the city and have a meeting scheduled for 11.30 at Mawson Lakes, instead of

notifying you 15 minutes before the meeting time, it will assess how long it will take to drive

there and let you know 45 minutes beforehand that you have to leave.’ ‘You will be able to

ask it to remind you when you are near a post office so that you can get stamps or pay bills.

And when it comes to choosing a restaurant you will be able to key in that you want to eat

lunch, at such and such a price range and the food you feel like is Italian and the organiser

will find the nearest restaurant that fills those criteria.’ (Nardeli, 2002)

- History Unwired, Venice

According to the developer’s website the ‘History Unwired is a walking tour through one of

Venice’s more hidden neighbourhoods, delivered over location-aware, multimedia phones


33

and PDAs. The tour takes visitors around the neighbourhood of Castello, guided by the voices

of Venetian citizens whose work and perspectives depict a particularly local experience of art

and craft, history and folklore, public and private spaces.’

The system uses Bluetooth technology to sense the speed and exploratory nature of the

walkers, the users footsteps determine how the plot, path and tone of the content evolves.

AGPS technology determines the general location of the user and prompts the devices to load

certain location-specific content. Local merchants and other community members are

involved in the History Unwired project by developing new tours offered on handheld devices

that are intended to lure the tourists into other parts Venice to spread the expenditures and

avoid damage on their delicate environment. (MIT, 2005)

- Invisible Ideas

Invisible Ideas, presented by the Nature and Inquiry artists group, was a part of the Boston

Cyberarts Festival 2003 which ran from April 10, 2003 until May 10, 2003. The application

used GPS enabled handheld devices running Macromedia Flash software.

The system linked words and images from various artists to locations on various locations in

the exhibition area. Participants where enabled to discover this landscape of ideas by using

GPS-enabled handheld computers which showed the specific content at the appropriate place.

(invisibleideas.org, 2005)

Communication technology in museums

A very interesting field of development for mobile communication technologies is the

museum. Technology has long been a means of providing visitors of museums information on

entire exhibitions or specific exhibited items. Film presentations, sound clips and recently

computers are common practice in the museums today. Mobile communication systems are

also slowly integrating, allowing the visitor to view the exhibition in its own way. Providing

him or her with a PDA which contains or wirelessly streams information on the specific item

in front which is looked at. Position systems allow the device to guide the visitor through a

series of works telling the story on a level which he or she has chosen. Thus making it

possible to give different information on the same exhibit to children, novice and expert

visitors. The visitor can choose what type of information he or she needs and when to receive

it. In The Netherlands several museums are testing with similar systems: the Museum


34

Boijmans Van Beuningen, the Frans Hals Museum in Haarlem and the new CODA in

Apeldoorn. Unfortunately there is a lack of cooperation amongst the museums. The CODA

for example found out about the similar developments in the Frans Hals museum for example

because of an article that was written in ‘Museumvisie’. They have started to work together in

developing one system. (Brombacher, 2004)

MP3 audio-tours

Although ‘traditional‘ MP3 audio-tours do not have positioning or routing capabilities, they

do guide the user through an area through voiced directions. Digital guides as mentioned

above may use MP3 technology in combination with GPS or other positioning technology in

order to give directions, thus expanding the capabilities of a ‘classical’ audio-tour.

SMS service messages

Examples with regard to tourism are the SMS messages one receives when entering a new

country or city: providing the receiver with information on how to find for example hotels or

restaurants.

‘Welcome to HK! Use SmarTone and dial *368 and receive dining/shopping tips, roaming

assistance and even learn Cantonese’

The network operator knows which telephone number accesses its network for the first time

and sends that specific number a SMS. So it is possible that messages can be time and

location based enabling various commercial activities to be deployed. The message could be

purely informational but could also contain discount offers at specific venues in the local area.

For example a deal could be made between a lunchroom and a mobile phone network

provider. This deal would encompasses that around lunchtime the network sends messages

from the lunchroom, containing information and a digital discount coupon to all mobile

phones passing through the network covered area in which the lunchroom is located as well,

attracting hungry passers-by. In order to avoid privacy violations such services can be

subscription based. SMS information subscriptions can be deployed for tourism purposes

also.


35


Like the services mentioned earlier in the pre-travel section of this chapter, the same booking

and ticketing services are also available during the actual travel stage itself. This stage is also

when the acquired tickets in the pre-travel stage are used.

Hotel Technology

GDS (Global Distribution System) has been around since the 1960s and where it was initially

only used for airlines, in the decades that followed the GDSs expanded their scope to include

hotel bookings as well. First these systems where only accessible to the companies

themselves, then the tour operators and travel agents started to use them as well followed by a

consumer access through electronic third parties. This access is also available through

wireless or mobile connections and some services are being offered specifically to mobile

users (see Booking and Ticketing mentioned earlier).

Some major hotel groups are installing self-service check-in kiosks in their hotels to reduce

waiting times at the counter. The Fairmont in Toronto, Canada is planning one step ahead and

says it will be installing a Wireless Guest Ambassador; a wireless-enabled computer tablet

handled by a guest service agent will be at hand to assist the guest through the check-in

process. Technology can have a great impact on hotels, both interior and exterior. Focussing

on Mobile Communication Devices however, finds that except from booking systems and

wireless internet access, there are not many application in use today.

Other use

In this other use section the uses of mobile communication devices in tourism that do not

necessary fit within the two sections above are discussed.

- GPS navigation in cars

The sales and use of GPS navigation systems has surged with the availability of navigation

software on handheld devices, making it about 3 times cheaper than the original navigation

devices that are installed in cars. They are mainly used for routing the way from point A to

point B, but they also contain address information on many sights and attractions as well as

restaurants, hotels, etcetera. This information database can be manually expanded or updated

through the Internet, and can be linked to the personalized address book in the PDA.


36

This type of service allows tourists to locate hotels and restaurants easier in places where they

are not familiar. Avoiding wasted time by searching for a restaurant, and if a short review is

added to the address, knowing on forehand what type of place it is. All of which saves time to

do other things in the area, even if it is just having a drink in a local pub, by knowing where

you go and what you can expect the chances of a negative experience are lessened and a

positive image of the destination is more likely to remain for future reference. It also offers

opportunities to venues that are located off the beaten track that would normally be passed by

easily.

- Getting around with RFID

RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) is gradually being implemented in some public

transport systems. RF-tags in passes allow users to charge their public transport card at a

charging machine allowing the user to hold the pass close to the reader to gain access. This

eliminates the need for ticket control on the public transport. The pass can be charged, or can

contain contract information. This system allows the traveller to speed up the ticket buying

process and decreases the chances of illegal travellers on the public transportation system.

RFID can be used for various applications, from tagging shopping goods to transport passes

and even payment information, and in an attempt to create something of a standard for the

technology; Nokia, Sony, Philips, Sharp and NEC are going to install RFID readers as

standard functions on their mobile phones. Allowing the advantages of RFID to be utilized

from the mobile phone.

- taking pictures/ movie clips

Many mobile devices have started to sport photo and even video camera applications. These

enable the user to preserve memories in the form of images almost instantly using their

mobile communication device. Although initially installed cameras were of low resolution,

causing low quality images, the latest range of mobile phones include 2 mega pixel cameras,

which is enough for normal photo-size prints.

- staying in contact with home/ work

Brown and Chalmers (2003) state that ‘visitors are not isolated and individuals but are a part

of a social group. Tourists record and represent experiences in the form of photos and stories,

to remind themselves of the visit and to share with others after they return home.’


37

A mobile communication device enables travellers to remain in almost constant contact with

their home and office environments by making phone-calls and immediately sharing the

stories, pictures and even video-clips by sending them through SMS, MMS or email

messages.

- Sharing information with other travellers

Brown and Chalmers (2003) emphasize the social nature of tourism by identifying sharing

their visit with other tourists in order to solve travel-related problems. ‘A tourist generally

travels with others, e.g. as part of a family group, and statistics from the US show that 79% of

leisure visits involve groups of two or more.’ The sharing of this visit can be given

multimedia content through a mobile communication device which enables the travellers to

share digital information in the form of text, images or sound.

- Geocaching

One other use of mobile communication technology in tourism is Geocaching. Although it is

not necessarily linked to travel as such, it can be and it is most definitely a leisure activity.

And because it is a communication technology the author has decided to mention it in this

section.

The way it works is that a treasure chest (the cache), holding a logbook and a possible reward,

is hidden somewhere. The GPS coordinates of the cache are posted on the Internet and

participants try to track it down using their GPS devices. Whoever finds the cache takes the

reward at the location or for example their picture with the treasure and signs the logbook. In

some cases the chest contains more coordinates, sending the finder off to look for the next

location. According to Liebhold (2004) geo-caching has become a worldwide phenomenon

and Today, Geocaching is so popular that enthusiasts can seek caches in over 200 countries

(Didion, 2005).

According to Didion (2005) Geocaching ‘came into being in May 2000 when the government

stopped their intentional degradation of GPS for security reasons. The first Geocache

‘treasure’ was hidden soon thereafter near Portland, Oregon. The treasure was found, a system

of rules was devised and Geocaching was off and running.’


38

§3.3.3 Post-visit phase: reminiscing

According to Brown and Chalmers (2003), post travel ‘is about reminiscing and sharing.

Tourists often get together in groups to talk through their holidays, or to talk about their

holidays to others who were not there.’

An example of mobile communication technology in the reminiscing phase is sharing

pictures, movie clips and stories on a mobile device by showing them or sending them to

others. A mobile device can function as a mobile digital scrapbook, containing all sorts of

memories of the travel in the form of text and images.

After presenting the reader with some current mobile communication technologies and

examples of their implementation in tourism, the next chapter directs its gaze forwards into

the future. It deals with the scenario process which is applied to the subject of this thesis.


39

Chapter 4 - The scenario planning process

This chapter starts by justifying the choice for scenarios as a means for taking a look at the

future. It continues by presenting the scenario planning process, providing the basis for the

scenarios in chapter 5.

But can we predict the future? If we look back upon some of the things great minds have said

in the past, we see that even their assumptions once in a while proved to be inaccurate, to say

the least (see boxed text).

Looking back it is difficult to imagine these errors in judgement, but we are affected by biases

now as much as they were in their time. (Schoemaker, 1995) The main difference with their

situation is that today we have something those great minds did not have: scenario planning.

‘We overestimate the pace of progress near-

term and underestimate progress long-term.’

- Bill Gates, 2002 (Microsoft Corporation)

‘Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.’

Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal

Society, 1895

‘I think there is a world market for about 5 computer.’

Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

‘The phonograph…is not of any commercial value.’

Thomas Alva Edison, inventor of the phonograph, 1880


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§4.1 Scenario planning: justification for the choice

There are various methods and techniques of forecasting (see Appendix 2) In assessing the

various techniques of forecasting in relation to this thesis the thesis goal needs to be carefully

considered. This goal is focussed on the creation of awareness of future possibilities of mobile

communication technology in tourism. It is therefore important to make sure the imagination

and creative insight of the reader are stimulated. In order to see the possibilities one needs to

think ‘outside the box’. Prospective scenario planning was chosen as a method for forecasting

because of these criteria. It is the only technique that allows a higher degree of speculative

thought, which is a necessity when creating possible futures that speak to the imagination of

the reader.

According to leading authority and Harvard Professor Michael Porter (1985) ‘a scenario is an

internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be - not a forecast, but one

possible future.’ Creating such scenarios is exploring the future and according to Shoemaker

(1995), ‘people who can expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures

will be much better positioned to take advantage of the unexpected opportunities that come

along.’

In 1995 the steps in the scenario planning process were described by Paul J.H. Schoemaker in

his article ‘Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking’. This was the first time the gap

between theory and practice was bridged in literature by presenting a systematic methodology

for scenario planning. His work has remained very relevant for futurologists up to date.

The steps in the planning process (Schoemaker, 1995, Appendix 3) have been adapted

because in light of the goal of the thesis there was no need for some of its aspects. The red

line of the process remains the same, the steps and exact content however, have been changed

due to a different choice for trends and driving forces. Schoemaker (1995) recommends the

use of a wide range of general trends which affect the scenarios. This thesis however, mainly

relies on expert sources from the professional field to function as a foundation for the

scenarios instead of the general trends.

The steps in the scenario planning process, adapted from Schoemaker (1995) are presented in

the following section. Starting with the time and scope for the scenarios, followed by pointing

out the main stakeholders. Next, the main trends and driving forces, including expert opinions


41

are included. Finally the construction of the scenario themes and the actual scenarios are

specified.

§4.2 Time and scope of the analysis

Timeframe

The first question one has to ask is: How far into the future need we look? The answer to this

question depends on what this thesis wants to achieve. The goal is ‘to explore the future

possibilities for mobile communication devices in tourism, providing a range of future

scenarios, and investigate what the advantages and disadvantages of such technologies would

be in order to create awareness about the possibilities amongst those involved in tourism.’

In a discussion on mobile communication technologies and tourism with Arent van ‘t Spijker

(April 22, 2005), he stated that a realistic time limit for predicting future technological

developments is 5 years, which means that at time of writing developments can be foreseen

until 2011. A realistic time limit for envisioning possible uses for future technologies is 10

years, which means looking until 2016. When looking further into the future, beyond 2016,

the vision partially turns from realistic to science fiction, which means that it is impossible to

set certain developments into a realistically indicated timeframe or to foresee certain

technologies at all.

This however, does not mean that certain developments cannot be anticipated or that visions

beyond that timeframe are of no use. On the contrary, not only science fiction story tellers but

also many researchers and futurologists envision developments far beyond ten years into the

future. They all use their own methods in predicting the future, some more scientific than

others.

In making predictions of development into the future it is generally accepted that over a

period of two years people anticipate more change than what will actually happen, but they

predict significantly less change than actual over a period of ten years. Or as Bill Gates (2002)

put it: ‘We overestimate the pace of progress near-term and underestimate progress long-

term.’


42

Another general assumption in futurology is that in order to understand the process of change

and the types of influence, one can study the historical development in an area over the same

period in the past as is intended for study in the future. As we have seen in Kurzweil (2005)

however, technological developments move exponentially forward and between 2000 and

2014 we will therefore experience ‘20 years of progress at 2000 rates, equivalent to the entire

20th century. And then we'll do the same again in only seven years.’

In forecasting, especially regarding technological advancements, facts turn into fiction past a

timeframe of 10 years. Beyond that period forecasting is no longer very reliable. Although

this thesis’ main focus is not on the reliability of the presented scenarios per se, the goal is to

keep the projections within good reason. Therefore a range of scenarios in a timeframe

covering 5-10 years from now (2011-2016) are presented.

Scope

As stated before, this thesis focuses on mobile communication developments used in the

various phases of the travel process. The problem here is: where to draw the line between the

possibilities for use of mobile communication devices for tourism or in everyday life. In most

cases these possibilities transcend the tourism range, many mobile communication devices are

initially designed for non-tourism purposes. Although everyday use is not of our main interest

it will be bi-linearly dealt with in the scenarios because of the overlap between everyday and

tourism use of mobile technologies.

§4.3 Major stakeholders

The goal of this thesis is to create awareness among those involved in tourism. This is a bit

vague when identifying major stakeholders, especially because the different purposes of travel

ensure a wide range of stakeholders. In order to keep the scenarios comparable this thesis

chooses to base them upon roughly the same starting points, therefore the stakeholders

included in the scenarios for this thesis are:

The tourists,

In this thesis the tourists are the main group of stakeholders. This is due to the fact that the

focus of this thesis lies on the consumer and the use of mobile communication technologies in

tourism activities. Based on theory of Mill and Morrison (2002), tourists are divided into two


43

major classifications, being business traveller and pleasure/ personal traveller, each with their

subsequent subdivisions.

Mill and Morrison (2002) identify three types of travel for business purposes:

� Regular business travel

� Meetings, conventions and congresses

� Incentive travel

Because the division of business and pleasure travel from Mill and Morrison (2002) is not

specific enough for use in this thesis and the source used for their division is now outdated,

travel with a pleasure purpose is categorized according to a division described by Van

Egmond (2001).

� Beach holidays

� Winter sports

� Nature holidays

� Culture holidays

� Adventure holidays

� Tourism to developing countries

� VFR holidays

This division of business travel categorized by Mill and Morrison (2002) and pleasure travel

categorized by Van Egmond (2001), serves as a basis for the scenarios.

The tourism sector,

In literature tourism has often been categorized into sectors (Leiper, 1990; Middleton, 1988;

Morrison, 1996; Mill and Morrison, 2002). A description of the travel and tourism industry

provided by Middleton and Clarke (2001) is followed because it gives a clear and complete

overview. They divide the industry into five main sectors.


44

Figure 4.1 The five main sectors of the tourism and travel industry (Middleton and Clarke, 2001)

As stated above, the main stakeholders and the focus of this thesis are on the tourists, not the

tourism sector. Whatever concerns the tourist however obviously concerns them; the tourism

sector supplies the tourists with the products and services they require. Implications of the

scenarios for these stakeholders are therefore included in the final chapter.

The technology sector,

Major stakeholders in the subject of this thesis, mobile communication technology, are of

course also a wide variety of information technology actors. Mobile phone manufacturers,

network operators, etc., but also others such as players in the field of software development.

They are an obvious group of stakeholders in this thesis, without them there would not be any

technologies available for the tourist to use.

The future developments of these technology actors however, is shrouded in mist, it is

however to be expected that they have plans ready and anticipate on future possibilities.

Nokia for example, is working on an RFID integrated mobile phone (ZNET, 2004), according

to Nokia however, ‘it’s still very early yet’, implying that they should not be expected too

soon. The role of these actors is implied in the scenarios by the existence of a mobile


45

communication device and the implications for these actors are elaborated in the final chapter

of this thesis.

Thus the role of these stakeholders within this thesis is as follows. The scenarios that follow

at the end of this chapter are based on the various types of travel mentioned above. The other

stakeholders: the tourism sector with its subdivision, complemented with the technology

sector are related to these scenarios in chapter 6, the findings and conclusions.

§4.4 Basic trends and foresights

The following trends and foresights represent a collection of opinions and visions on trend-

recognitions and future developments from various experts in tourism, technology and other

fields. While some sources such as Oertel et al. (2002), explicitly say some aspects are key

factors in the future of mobile technology in tourism, the fact that the selected categories are

in one form or another omnipresent throughout expert literature implies their importance.

The next section attempts to summarize the main findings regarding trends and foresights in

order to provide a substantial basis for the generation of the scenarios. The trends and

foresights are subdivided into four main categories: consumer trends and foresights, tourism

sector trends and foresights, technological advancements and environmental trends and

foresights.

All four groups include tourism and technology related trends and foresights. The selection

has been made on basis of relevance to the subject in relation to the goal of this thesis. In

order to effectively reach this goal, the trends and foresights in or related to ‘mobile

communication technology in tourism’ are restricted to these four categories. Economic and

political trends and foresights have been left out of the scope because this thesis regards them

as a constant stable force. Without economic prosperity, consumers engage much less in

tourist activities, let alone spend money on luxury items.

Political items have been reduced to those concerned with the regulations regarding the use of

mobile communication devices, and these are even only superficially covered because of the

fact that national politics differ from international politics. North Korea for example, visitors

to that country are not even allowed to bring in their own mobile phones let alone that the

general public is allowed to use such devices.


46

Some of the trends and forecasts do not explain their linkages to the tourism sector, the reason

for this is that many external trends directly affect the sector. This chapter refrains from

presenting conclusions in this light because they become apparent in later steps of the

scenario planning process.

Figure 4.2 Division of trends and forecasts

Trends and forecasts directly affecting the tourism sector

Different demand – different supply

Cheaper, shorter, and more often

Payment & ticketing

Cyber life: ubiquitous connectivity

New ways of communicating

Personalization

Security, privacy and health

Consumer trends and forecasts

The mobile generation

Aging travellers

Rise of the Bobos

Mobile business traveller

Traveller grows more independent

Increased Environmental Awareness

Technological advancements

Energy

Display technologies

Online networks

Faster, faster, smaller, smaller

Positioning and localization

Connectivity

Convergence

Environmental trends and forecasts

Global warming

Natural disasters


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Trends and forecasts directly affecting the tourism sector

Different demand – different supply

Little (2001) argues that ‘the first wave of Information Technologies was just the beginning of

an unstoppable trend of technology integrated in our everyday lives’ and that ‘embracing new

technologies will be key to the survival of major travel brands.’ According to i:FAO (2002)

the tourism suppliers will anticipate by making ‘efforts to build up central databases of

traveller information’. These databases will provide ‘extensive insight into individual

preferences and behavioural patterns’, which can be used for marketing of personalized

services. Nield and Pearson (2005) predict the emergence of personalised adverts on the radio

within the next 5 years.

Nield & Pearson (2005) foresee one especially interesting possibility with regard to different

ways of approaching customers called: ‘reverse auctions’. By 2017 consumers will be able to

enter their shopping list into their personal communication device and nearby stores will then

bid to provide those items to the customer, they might provide the lowest price or other

incentives to get the business.

Poon (2003) mentions that destinations are also reacting to the new consumer trends of

environmental awareness and interest in heritage, local culture and closeness to nature by

‘steering clear of developing mass tourism’. Industry experts at the Tourism Business

Frontiers Forum in London (Buhalis, 2005) agree, stating that ‘focus moves away from mass

marketing to addressing that which the tourist really wants’.

In short destinations are reinventing themselves, in various ways. They are moving from

‘mass tourism to mass customization’ and from ‘products to experiences’ (Poon, 2003).

Cheaper, Shorter, and More Often

There is a trend from long and expensive to cheaper, shorter and more often.

According to Aichholzer et al. (2003) and Poon (2003), the trend is to ‘take shorter and more

frequent breaks.’ This trend is driven by ‘time-poor, money-rich people.’ Dr. Poon also notes

that the emergence of short-range low-cost carriers is a ‘critical driver of this trend.’ ‘On a


48

short brake, travel must be seamless and nothing must be left to chance. Creative packaging

of events and experiences are key.’

Although there is a trend for cheaper, shorter and more often travels, ‘all-inclusive holidays

will still be demanded by a large number of people. Especially those with needs for complete,

unburdened relaxation and release from job pressures.’ (Aichholzer et al., 2003)

Payment & ticketing

A main driving force in digital payment and ticketing technologies is RFID. Many uses for

this technology are in development, with an example being tags in consumer goods. Nield &

Pearson (2005) predict that by 2015, on most products RF-tags will have replaced barcodes

therefore no longer requiring manual scanning of the product at the register. The RFID chips

will simply transmit their signals to the counter which can wirelessly deduct the payable

amount from your electronic wallet which will also use RFID technology.

According to Oertel et al. (2003) ‘the mobile device is well suited as such a wallet and/or cash

card’ and various credit card companies such as American Express and Visa are testing RFID

chips to replace magnetic strips on their cards. Similar applications are already in use in Japan

enabling consumers to use RFID enabled cards or even mobile phones to make their payments

in affiliated stores. According to Nield & Pearson (2005) ‘paper and coins will largely be

replaced by electronic cash by 2015.’

The according to Aichholzer et al. (2003) these applications will not just be used for payment

functions but also the management of destination loyalty schemes and mobile ticketing.

Mobile phone based services will make up a major portion of air travel as well as railway

travel ticketing during the next decade. (Aichholzer et al., 2003; Nield and Pearson, 2005)

Combined with a digital device these smart (digital) tickets be able to navigate its owner

through airports. (Nield & Pearson, 2005) This is also mentioned by Little (2001) where an

example is given of the capabilities of their PCD: at the airport the PCD tells the user where

and when to board, deriving its information from the digital ‘smart’ ticket inside the device

which is connected to the network at the airport.


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Cyber life: ubiquitous connectivity

Technologies are steadily pervading human society (Norman, 1999). Mobile phones for

example are already integrated to such an extend that ‘alongside money and a passport, many

travellers consider it to be an item that should always be available in their hand luggage’.

(Oertel et al., 2002) In the near future communication technology will be embedded in

everything you can imagine, from invisible wearable computers within clothing,

interconnecting the wearer with a ‘virtual mobile ‘interactor’ environment’ to nanoparticles in

paint, creating a 3D computer screen on all types of surfaces (Anwar & Hamilton, 2005).

Zampetakis (2005) describes ‘a world that is five to 10 years away, which will be minutely

responsive to our needs.’ In which one will be able, for example, ‘to walk into a supermarket

and pick up a salami and look at a biosensor display unit on the package to get data such as

whether it contains gluten or if it's developed salmonella.’

When everything is technology embedded, a database system could link a person’s

environment up to his or her behaviour, imagine your mobile device reminding you to lock

the door because the sensors around you have noticed you leaving, however the door sends a

signal that it is not locked.

The Internet has rapidly become the dominant technology. (Poon, 2003) She argues that it is a

dominant technology which all players use, suppliers, tourism destination and consumers

alike. Because of this integration of information technology within society, tourists ‘will have

an increasingly demand for multi media travel information mobile devices will increasingly

be used for the distribution of tourism product and services.’ (Aichholzer et al., 2003)

Nield and Pearson (2005) argue that life will be increasingly technology integrated, even

within the next 6 years. Examples of a cyber life they describe include that by 2012 ‘all

government services will be offered electronically’, 25% of all workforce will be tele-

working at least 2 days a week’ and ‘tourist information beacons’ will be available.

New ways of communicating

This always-on connectivity results in new ways of communicating with each other. ‘VoIP’

and ‘Push-to-Talk’ technologies enable cheap immediate (voice) access to anyone, anywhere.

Especially in business applications, these technologies have great potential. Constant contact

between colleagues, being able to efficiently communicate even on the other side of the


50

world, can be a great competitive advantage. Little (2001) takes this one step further,

including video images into the equation. They foresee the possibility of their PCD to directly

link up with the home surveillance system, being able to see, for example your kids having

breakfast and while physically being on the other side of the earth, digitally being able to join

them on a screen in the kitchen.

Because telephone functions are moving onto the net by using VoIP technology, costs are

greatly reduced. Nield & Pearson (2005) even predict all voice calls to be free of charge by

2015.

Portable translation devices will drastically change the way people of different languages

communicate. Where 21CN (English-Chinese dictionary software) will be available within

the next 5 years, actually functional portable translation devices for simple conversation will

be available a few years later. (Nield & Pearson, 2005) Some products are already available

such as the Ectaco UT-103, these efforts however, fail to be accurate enough for any

functional use as of yet.

Besides new ways of communicating to other human beings, we will also start to talk to

machines. Nield & Pearson (2005) believe that simple voice command for home appliances

will be around by 2010 evolving into full voice interaction with appliances a few years later.

Personalization

According to Aichholzer et al. (2003) and Poon (2003) ‘technology is creating the basis for

flexibility and individuality of the travel experience without necessarily increasing costs.’ She

argues that nobody really preferred ‘mass, standardized, and rigidly packaged holidays’, but

took them because they were relatively inexpensive. Now, information technology will enable

suppliers to personalize holidays ‘without penalizing individuality with higher costs’. With

regards to mobile phones, Oertel et al. (2002) state that everything done with it is very much

personalized, it is all about ‘the where, when, how and who’s of the users life. Value added

services must personalize therefore and centralize, sort and simplify based on personal needs.’

Security, privacy and health

According to Zampetakis (2005) ‘technological developments will expose us to unimagined

privacy, security and ethical challenges.’ Nield & Pearson (2005) for example envisions ‘SMS


51

spam problems undermining the mobile content market’ within the next 5 years. These issues

need regulation, Hulme and Peters (2001) and Oertel et al. (2002) agree that third parties

should be able to benefit ‘as long as the customer has’ granted that content provider

‘privileged access through this highly personal device.’

Related to the security threats of communication technology public awareness needs to be

raised. Businesses for example, should educate their staff on these issues and take appropriate

precautions by installing security software. This however is a problem that is at hand now but

will increasingly be a problem in the future; whenever there is something of value available,

in this case information, there will be people who want to steal it. This is especially the case

when a technology becomes widely spread. Or as Xeni Jardin put is so aptly when he

discussed this subject in ‘Wired’: ‘When you invite the whole world to your party, inevitably

someone pees in the beer.’

Ian Pearson (2005), Futurologist at BT and co-creator of the BT Timelines predicts that ‘we

will need ‘smart’, personalized, digital filters that allow useful information to get to us, but

which prevent enormous volumes of irrelevant or unwanted information from getting through,

such as junk marketing.’ ‘Security will also be important, as we need to ensure that devices on

our person can freely exchange information within their authority, but we will not want that

information to be available to others without our consent.’ ‘This combination of security,

personal profiling and electronic filters’ will create a ‘digital bubble’ around us.

Taking into account the rising threat of international terrorism as we know it after 9/11 and

the Bali bombings, security measures at for example airports have greatly increased. Many

airport customs have turned towards new technologies to provide solutions. Iris identification

for example, has become available at some airports to paying customers who can speed up

their customs formalities this way. In the future however it is likely that such a technology

becomes wider spread. Another technological advancement, which is actually used for

security, is the digital photograph that is taken of every person entering Thailand. As such

technologies will become more integrated within daily life they will also create possibilities

for greater security.


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Consumer trends and forecasts

The mobile generation

‘New technologies have been adopted by teenagers at an extraordinary rate.’ (Hulme &

Peters, 2001) They state that ‘teen mobile owners view their devices as extensions of

themselves and their personalities’ some state they will be ‘panic stricken’ or will even feel

like losing a limb in case the device gets lost or stolen. This illustrates how profound the

reliance on these devices is already.

Industry experts at the Tourism Business Frontiers Forum in London (Buhalis, 2005)

recognize ‘young tourists and travellers’ ‘as the most sophisticated users of information

technology and are able to take advantage of changing technologies as they optimize the

potential of the Internet to book holidays and engage with local economies directly.’

Aging travellers

According to Poon (2003), Oertel et al. (2002) and industry experts at the Tourism Business

Frontiers Forum in London (Buhalis, 2005), the ‘demographic trend of an aging population in

industrial societies involves a growth in older, healthier and fitter travellers.’ Oertel et al.

(2002) conclude that this trend will increase demand for electronic services related to foreign

travel. Anwar & Hamilton (2005) see this amplified by emerging biotechnologies,

technological devices operating within the human body, allowing the human lifespan to vastly

lengthen. As 2020 approaches ‘this physically fit, aging population will create new

opportunities for tourism.’

Rise of the Bobos

Poon (2003) describes a next generation of next of ‘psychographically coherent group of

consumers’. After the Hippies and later the Yuppies, there are the Bobos (Bourgeois

Bohemians). They are the new ‘upper class’, educated and successful consumers, and like the

Hippies, ‘feel driven to expand their cultural horizons through experiences’, and like the

Yuppies, they are ‘extremely materialistic’. The difference is however, that they motivate

their expenditures on top-of-the-line products by ‘placing the supposed immaterial benefits of

the purchase over the luxury’ of owning the product.


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Mobile business traveller

Where Zampetakis (2004), predicts that in about 10 years, video telephony will be a standard

business tool, Nield and Pearson (2005) believe that by then it will even be possible to project

holograms onto visualisation gear through mobile communication.

Traveller grows more independent

According to Poon (2003), there is an increased demand for ‘partly packaged, customizable

holidays throughout the developed markets’. Travellers grow more independent because of

the large amount of information available to them through Information Technologies. It

enables them to evolve from ‘bargain hunters’ into ‘value seekers’, easily comparing

competitors, putting together their own travel itineraries. Therefore the trend shifts from

‘group tours’ to ‘independent travel’. This is backed by the industry experts at the Tourism

Business Frontiers Forum in London (Buhalis, 2005), who concluded that ‘in the past tourism

has emerged through mass marketing; developments in technology have initiated a move

away from a ‘one size fits all’ solution’. They continue by stating that there is an increasing

tourist demand for using Information Technologies to ‘book flights, accommodation, tickets

and research holidays, etc. online’. According to Aichholzer et al. (2003) this ever more

competitive environment will increasingly force destinations to employ ‘extensive branding

and marketing strategies’.

Increased Environmental Awareness

According to Poon (2003) environmental awareness has risen dramatically, to the extend that

‘consumer trends clearly demonstrate that customers are willing to pay to save Planet Earth.’

She illustrates this point by mentioning that ‘German tourists to the Maldives collect their

own garbage and the airline LTU flies it back to Germany’.

Technological advancements

Energy

Trends in energy demand are clear: as society increasingly embraces technology, energy

usage will go up. And with the economic development of China and India, the world can

brace itself for some high energy demand from their side. New technologies however are in

development and according to Nield and Pearson (2005) we can expect technologies such as


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‘button sized gas turbine generators’ and fuel cells for portable device power within the next 6

years.

Kurzweil (2005) states that ‘by the mid 2020s we will be able to meet our energy needs using

very inexpensive nanotechnology-based solar panels. They will capture the energy in 0.03 per

cent of the sunlight that falls on the Earth, which is all we need to meet our projected energy

needs in 2030.’

Display technologies

The trend in display technology has been towards better images on thinner and more durable

surfaces. E-paper technology which will allow users to carry products such as electronic

newspapers, books and television sets folded in their pockets. These displays can be

continually updated (Little, 2001). One of the frontrunners of this new display medium is

Fujitsu who debuted their bendable colour e-paper ‘xtreme ultra’ at Japanese tradeshow

CEATEC 2005. Possible application could be to display the train time tables on large

electronic paper displays wrapped around the columns of the platform or to display

advertisements on e-paper. Nield and Pearson’s (2005) stand on this subject is that ‘e-ink

screen advertising billboards’ should be around somewhere between 2006 and 2010 and

‘displays with image quality comparable to paper’ somewhere between 2008 and 2012.

Little (2001) expects Heads Up Displays (HUD) ‘to allow the users to do work, view email,

surf the Internet, or watch movies anywhere, superimposing the information over their field of

vision via wearable computers with complete privacy no matter where they are.’ HUDs are

already used in several aircraft cockpits and cars. Katie Williams, a Welsh Brunel University

design graduate created a pair of swimming goggles that display race time and laps completed

onto the glasses. (Clothier, 2005)

Online Networks

Bill Gates (Associated Press, 2005) urged his top executives in an email that ‘shifts to

Internet-based software and services represent a massive and disruptive ‘sea change’.’ This

vision represents itself in the development of Microsoft Live!, where the user will be able to

access all his important documents from anywhere in the world. Basically storage and use of

ones files becomes network based. This is a trend which Nield & Pearson (2005) foresee

materializing within the next 6 years.


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Faster, faster, smaller, smaller

According to Zampetakis (2005) ‘the driving principles behind modern technology are running

out of steam: it is becoming prohibitively costly to continue to shrink technology, while Moore's

Law, which postulates the doubling of computer power every 18 months, is reaching its physical

limits under current processes. By 2015 we will be hard pressed to use today's techniques to make

devices increasingly smaller and more powerful.’ This suggests that the process described under

Moore’s Law will continue for another 10 years. By 2015, nanotechnology will have developed

into the next generation computing technologies and ‘be able to deliver the potential to run

massive parallel computing on devices the size of a 50 cent coin.’

Positioning and localization

Positioning systems users have been on the increase due to the strong competition that has

emerged from competitively-priced GPS devices. Nield & Pearson (2005) predict that by

2010 most new cars will be fitted with positioning systems being standard.

According to Oertel et al. (2002) in the short term, key aspects such as positioning and

payment possibilities will be decisive for success of 3G mobile communication. Nield &

Pearson (2005) predicts that localization applications will become so ubiquitous that we’ll be

using positioning systems in homes and stores by 2012.

Connectivity

Information Technologies have moved forward, enabling consumers to communicate with

their peers almost anytime, anywhere. Mobility is the key word, Nield & Pearson (2005) even

predict that within the next 6 years, 90% of all calls made will be tetherless, that Star Trek

style communication badges will be possible and that 60% of Internet access will be from

mobile devices.

The PCD device described by Little (2001) would be able to wirelessly connect to other

devices in the area, enabling the user to operate his or her documents, software or video links

through public digital information kiosks. Internet cafés could be regarded as early versions of

such solutions, these however restrict the personalized use or connectivity mainly to email

and general world wide web access.


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According to i:FAO (2002) ‘mobile access to the world wide web will grow rapidly in those

cases where time and location relevant information and service transactions are supplemented

in a sensible way.’ As the core of tourism is services that are time and location based, this is

very likely to be one of the areas of major growth for mobile Internet services.

Convergence

As stated earlier ‘it is clear that the IT industry sees the mobile handset as the ubiquitous and

most appealingly versatile device of the future. It makes sense that a single converged device

will offer functions and convenience which make it far preferable to carrying around a bag

full of separate devices.’ (3G.co.uk, 2004) This convergence is ‘where the opportunities lie

for truly innovative services.’ (Oertel et al., 2002) Within the next 5 years for example mobile

phones are expected to pass standalone music players in market share. (Nield & Pearson,

2005)

Little (2001) describes such a converged device for the future in ‘The Travel Technology

Revolution’. Aptly named the ‘Personal Communication Device’ (PCD), it is to be the travel

device for the future, providing the user with ‘a better, more enjoyable experience made

possible and trouble free by the application of rapidly converging technologies.’

Environmental trends and forecasts

Global warming

‘Environmental concerns and global warming are likely to change the nature of the tourism

experience. Rising sea levels may lead to the end of some coastal tourist destinations.

Technological progress is, however, likely to make the dream of space travel an affordable

reality. In the future, some of the physical experiences now enjoyed by tourists may only be

available as cyber experiences because of global warming.’ For example if global warming

continues or nuclear war prevent us from lying on the beach, virtual experiences will recreate

that experience.

Natural disasters

Another environmental aspect that should always be considered in tourism is the danger for

natural disasters. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches and Tsunamis mostly happen


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without warning. Technology will assist the prevention of casualties in the future through

education and early warning systems.

§4.5 Scenario themes

In this step in the scenario planning process the themes are chosen and structured. Also some

needs and issues regarding individual types are identified.

Types of tourism

As presented in paragraph 4.3 the tourists, as a group of stakeholders, are divided into ten

types of travel grouped into business and pleasure motivated travel.

The types of travel are illustrated separately, individually highlighting their possibilities

concerning mobile communication technologies in tourism. The reason for this separate

description is that although many aspects overlap, different types of tourism include different

information needs, which can be satisfied by using mobile communication technologies in

different ways. In attempting not to repeat unnecessary information too much, not all

scenarios will be evenly elaborate.

Scenario structure

Because this thesis’ main focus lies on the tourist and their use of mobile communication

technology, the scenarios are constructed around the tourist’s experience. The division of this

travel experience into three phases (pre-visit, visit and post-visit) has been explained in

chapter 3.3. Following this same structure these phases are used to illustrate the entire tourism

experience. As mentioned earlier the types of technologies have been selected from a tourist

point of view, and like in chapter 3.3, the scenarios are related to the same question: ‘How can

a tourist use a mobile communication device during the three phases?’

Pre-visit (Planning phase): Information Gathering


Other preparations

Visit (Tourist activity phase): Information routing


Other use

Post-visit (Reminiscing phase)


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Issues and needs of the tourist

In constructing the scenarios the process of identifying travel requirements, especially the

information requirements and some of the issues related to them is used as a foundation for

the individual scenarios. Where the scenarios overlap, they will refer to the initial solution and

focus on the specific tourism-type bound issues. This way ten scenarios are prepared, one for

each type of travel.

Issues and needs regarding travel for business purposes:

- Regular business travel

Information needs: high

Because the business traveller is mostly on a tight schedule, he or she needs information

in advance on hotels, restaurants, transportation, cultural background information, and

when time permits, leisure activities. The business traveller is also very reliant on the

amount of business related information that can be carried around. Also, contact between

the traveller and the office needs to be available constantly.

Issues:

Business travellers are mostly on a tight schedule, having to do many things in a short

time. Their travel itinerary also needs to be very flexible, then as plans change they need

to immediately be able to take a range of actions: change flights, change hotel

reservations, change other meetings on the agenda, make new dinner reservations, give

notice of the change in plans to family back home, etcetera. This doesn’t even include the

documents or other information the business traveller might need as a result of the change

in plans. Because of all sorts of restrictions regarding access to information and

knowledge, all of these issues take a lot of time from the business traveller.

Some issues identified by Mill and Morrison (2002) are that ‘people travelling on business

tend to get frustrated with the many demands of travel that are beyond their control.

Principal among these are the time required to travel, the long waits, and the delays of

arrivals and departures. They also have more personal frustrations – being away from

home and families, being alone, and living out of suitcases.’


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While some of these issues cannot always be dealt with by using mobile communication

technology, such as actually making the time the traveller needs to wait shorter, it can

provide the means for usefully spending the waiting time.

- Meetings, conventions and congresses


The information needs are the same as for the regular business traveller.

Issues:

Besides the issues regular business travellers have, the travellers attending meetings,

conventions or congresses often have to carry vast amounts of information such as

research papers, background information and promotional material. Walking around with

a big, heavy briefcase can be a burden.

- Incentive travel

Information needs: low

On forehand, the incentive traveller does not require much information. Mostly,

everything has been taken care of. Except in the case that the traveller is given an holiday,

but this would make him/ her a leisure traveller, not a traveller with a business motive.

Issues:

Incentive travel is defined by the Society of Incentive and Travel Executives as ‘a global

management tool that uses an exceptional travel experience to motivate and/or recognize

participants for increased levels of performance in support of organizational goals.’

(Jones, 1996 in Mill and Morrison, 2002)

The issues and needs in incentive travel are much less present than the other forms of

business travel. The itinerary is mostly fully taken care of, and many of its aspects even

resemble those of leisure travel. A main difference is that, although spending time in a

leisurely way, the traveller is still away from his or her family.


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Travel with a pleasure purpose (as categorized by Van Egmond, 2001):

- Beach holidays


On forehand the beach tourist wants to know what facilities are available at the

destination. For some destination it is also important to know where they are, for example

when the tourists drive themselves. But in many cases, as long as there is a nice beach, the

availability of supporting services outweighs the actual location itself. At the destination,

the information needs of a typical beach tourist are mainly information on restaurants,

bars, clubs and other entertainment. Also, the beach tourist will like to capture his or her

holiday feeling on photo or video camera as a memory to take home, enjoy and share with

friends and family.

Issues:

‘Beach tourists are characterized by a great loyalty to the destination. After all, the

‘discovering’ aspect is not as important as the facilities on site. This loyalty may entail

that the consumer stays in the same hotel time after time, but more frequently it means a

loyalty to the country.’ (Egmond, 2001) But also backpackers and tourist with an affinity

for snorkelling, diving and windsurfing can be accounted to the beach tourist, although be

it that their ‘drive’ in travelling makes them much less loyal to a destination. (Egmond,

2001) Issues involve carrying money and destination information around the pool or

beach.

- Winter sports

Information needs: low/ medium

On forehand there is not much information required. The only thing the tourist needs to

know is where the destination is, and what it has to offer in terms of actual sports facilities

and evenly important to many winter sport tourists: the availability of supporting facilities

such as bars and restaurants. Travelling to the location, routing information is required

and at the destination a map of the area, including slopes and supporting services is

needed. Coming down the mountain, cold and tired, the tourist needs immediate

information on places to warm up and enjoy a ‘glühwein’.


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Issues:

Winter sports, as the name already reveals is mainly about sports: skiing or snowboarding

are the most commonly practiced. The act of sports is a very popular captures moment

(video/ camera wise) especially when it is done in social groups. Taking home memories

and sharing them with friends and family is very important. The winter sports tourist also

needs to carry certain items on the slopes all day, maps of the area, money to pay for food

and drinks on the slopes and the keys to the apartment or chalet to name a few, and trust

me, falling (commonplace in the act of winter sports) on a set of keys is not a favourable

experience. As many winter sports tourist drive to the holiday destinations themselves

they need guidance in the form of maps or routing hard- and software in the car.

- Nature holidays


The information needs of nature tourist are high, in general they are higher educated and

often require information on the flora and fauna they are going see in the pre-visit stage.

Routing on location and information regarding the natural surroundings is imperative.

Also means of capturing memories for later reference and sharing them with friends and

relatives, for example through the use of cameras, are desired.

Issues:

Nature tourists can range from ‘hard-core’ ecotourists, scientists and special interest

groups, to ‘accidental’ ecotourists, incorporating the nature element into their holiday by

day-tripping to a natural area (Egmond, 2001). Be it on camping trips, day-long hikes,

canoeing, fishing, cycling or safaris, these out-and-about tourists need several supplies on

their explorations of nature. What they all have in common is that a certain amount of

gear and supplies is required. When looking at wildlife, immediate information, preferably

visually supported, is required for identification and background facts. This means that

nature tourists are generally more likely to rely on background information from reference

books (birds, plants or other wildlife), and guidebooks or maps for routing these resources

have to be carried along as well.

- Culture holidays



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The culture tourist, like the nature tourist, tends to be higher educated and is interested in

the facts of the destination’s attractions. This results in a above average need for

information in both the pre-visit as well as the visit stages in the form of background

information. At the destination the tourist will also require routing information around the

destination and information on supporting services. Similar to the nature tourist, the

culture tourist is very much inclined to capture the memories for later reference and

sharing with friends and family in the post-visit stage.

Issues:

Similar to the nature tourist, the culture tourist is likely to spend much time on foot when

visiting the cultural attractions. This restricts the amount of gear that can be carried

around; resulting is a situation that without a guide, the tourist is restricted in his or her

information resources.

- Adventure holidays

Information needs: low/medium

In the pre-visit stages the adventure tourist often plans what routes or areas will be visited,

he or she also plans what the activities there are likely to be and packs appropriate gear for

those purposes. At the destination the tourist requires routing information and in some

cases background information on the activity at hand. In case of emergency the tourist

needs means of communication to call for help. As with most other types of travel, the

adventure tourist is also keen on using photo or video devices in order to take memories

home for reminiscing and sharing purposes.

Issues:

More than nature and culture tourists, adventure tourist are restricted in the amount of

gear they can carry. If, for a multiple day trekking for example, the choice is to take a

piece of gear that is potentially life-saving or an extra book on birds, the choice is easy:

the bird-book, however informational, must go. Another issue is that adventure holidays

sometimes entails risking life and limb, this means that anything that is brought along

needs to be sturdy, preferably water, dust and fall proof.


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- Tourism to developing countries

Information needs: medium/high

Holidays to developing countries can be any of the above mentioned holiday types, the

difference is that the knowledge about such countries and especially on travelling in them,

is generally limited. This entails a greater amount of preparation. Cultural, natural,

geographical, economical and political information is required in advance and at the

destination this information is handy to have as reference material.

Issues:

An issue often recognized in developing countries is the language barrier, the locals

cannot speak your language and you cannot speak theirs. Another issue is a lack of

infrastructure, developing countries are not geared towards tourists and local information

supply can be slow, faulty or even lacking.

- VFR holidays


VFR tourists rely heavily on the information resources supplied by the people they visit.

In preparation they might read some background information, depending on the fact if the

destination is already known to them or not. If the visit entails the tourist to drive there

him or herself they might need routing information, but again, this depends on the fact if

this information is already known or not. During the visit stage, at the destination the

tourist will extensively make use of photo and /or video cameras for mostly reminiscing

but also sharing purposes in the post-visit stage.

Issues:

VFR holidays, are mainly about visiting friends and relatives but often include aspects of

the types mentioned above. Regarding the issues there are no specific ones that are not

already mentioned.

By combining the types of tourism, scenario structure and issues and needs of the tourist, the

next section will present the scenarios.


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Chapter 5 - Scenarios

This chapter provides the reader with a set of scenarios in which a future perspective on

mobile communication technology in tourism is given. The scenarios by no means paint a full

picture, nor are they to be seen as guidelines by which developments should take place. They

are intended to create awareness of certain trends in mobile communication technology and

tourism and the possibilities this combination encompasses.

Many signs regarding mobile communication developments point in one direction:

convergence. This thesis identified this as the pivotal aspect of mobile communication in

tourism. Little (2001) coined the term Personal Communication Device (PCD), this is also the

term that will be used throughout the scenarios.

The PCD is a palmtop size device, fitted with a fast processor and a large amount of memory

available for storage. It is capable of wireless communication, making voice/ video calls,

browsing the Internet, email, GPS, voice recognition and security soft- and hardware. (More

elaborate explanation on the PCD device is given in Appendix 4)

The scenarios feature the (fictional) Gates family, Phil and Karen Gates, parents of two young

children. Also, Phil’s brother John Gates, he is divorced and has two teenage children, Jill and

Will. Phil is the business man of the family; he works for a software company which requires

him to take a lot of business related trips. His wife, Karen is a housewife and her main passion

is nature. John Gates is an educated man and very interested in different types of culture, in

experiencing as many as possible he undertakes numerous travels abroad. John’s children

have completely different personalities; Jill’s main interests are going out to parties, shopping

and the like. Will on the other hand is a real outdoor person, being into sports and activities he

is the opposite of his sister.

‘I’m always interested in looking forward

toward the future. Carving out new ways of

looking at things.’

- Herbie Hancock (Musician)


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§5.1 Phil Gates: Regular business traveller

Situation: Phil Gates lives with his wife and children in Breda, he works for a software

company in The Hague and has a meeting with a few potential customers planned in

Barcelona the two days.

Planning phase: Phil asks his secretary to make the necessary arrangements for the trip. She

enters the date, location and name of the traveller into the computer which automatically

provides some options for available flights and a company approved hotel where Phil always

stays. Car rental agencies send Phil’s secretary several offers, she chooses the best deal and

sends the entire itinerary to Phil’s PCD. In the meanwhile Phil has gathered the documents he

will be needing for this trip, such as a few presentations, commercial material and contracts

and transferred them to his PCD.

Tourist activity phase: The following morning Phil gets woken by the alarm on his PCD,

telling him he has 2 hours left before he needs to leave for Schiphol Airport. While checking

his morning emails over breakfast on his PCD, e receives a notice that he should leave 30

minutes earlier because of heavy traffic. It is time to leave, the PCD automatically connects

to the car radio, playing Phil’s favourite music while routing him to the Airport. (The PCD

automatically routes the car to the next appointment by linking the GPS system to the entries

in the agenda.)

As Phil enters the Airport parking lot, the check-in terminal receives a message from the

PCD, automatically checking Phil in for his flight, and since he only has carry-on luggage he

can proceed to customs. The iris-scan swiftly guides him through this process. Phil does not

need to search for his gate, the PCD gives him the details: his flight leaves from gate 6,

which is 10 minutes walking, and check-in starts in 30 minutes. This gives him time to do

some tax-free shopping. He decides to buy a perfume his wife likes and as he enters the

‘payment area’, the PCD prompts him with the question how he wants to pay for the

perfume, through the credit on the PCD (ChipKnip style) or using his credit ‘card’ account.

He taps the screen for credit ‘card’ and leaves the store.

On the airplane, Phil wirelessly connects his PCD to the in-flight entertainment system and

the screen in front of him, enabling him to use all the applications and services he has on his


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PCD as well. He could listen to some music or watch one of the movies stored on his PCD

but he chooses to prepare for the presentation and goes through his documents.

Arriving in Barcelona, the Barcelona Tourism Organization, sends him a list of personalized

entertainment possibilities in the timeframe he is there, too bad Phil has no time to do any of

these things on this trip, he saves the data on his PCD to discuss a holiday to Barcelona with

his wife later. (Phil’s PCD is configured to receive such tourism information, and transmits a

list of preferences making sure no unwanted information (SPAM) reaches his PCD.) The

PCD guides Phil to the rented car and the code it received through booking acts as a digital

key, unlocking the doors and staring mechanism. Again the PCD connects to the car audio

system and routes Phil to his destination.

That afternoon, everything goes well at the presentation. In the evening Phil is looking for a

place to have dinner, he asks his PCD for a good restaurant in his proximity, the PCD

presents him with a list of restaurants suiting Phil’s personal preferences.

During dinner he receives an emergency call from his boss, he looks worried, there is a

problem in Copenhagen and Phil’s expertise is needed on-site to solve the problem as soon as

possible. This turn of events requires a drastic change of plans, and as Phil enters the new

appointment, ‘Copenhagen, tomorrow morning’ into his PCD, it swings into full gear:

changing flight plans, cancelling appointments, making new reservations in Copenhagen and

informing his family of the change of plans. Within five minutes, Phil can resume his dinner

and returns to his hotel. At the hotel he downloads the business documents he needs for

Copenhagen to his PCD and packs his bag for the next trip. The last thing he does is make a

connection to his home-video system and has a chat with his wife, discussing a possible

holiday to Barcelona.

Reminiscing phase: When returned home from Copenhagen, Phil downloads the data he

gathered on his trip and prints out a report.

§5.2 Phil Gates: Meetings, Conventions and congresses

Situation: This time Phil has to travel by car to Amsterdam to attend a two-day congress on

software security to speak on the developments of his company.


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Planning-phase: The booking of the hotel is the same as in the regular business traveller

scenario. This time however Phil needs extensive information on the topics of the congress,

he also needs to prepare a new presentation. Everything is uploaded to his PCD.

Tourist activity phase: Phil gets a company chauffeur to drive him to Amsterdam. He uses

the PCD to connect to the screen in the back of the car and reviews his emails and notes on

the congress, he makes some last minute adjustments to his presentation.

At the congress he meets a lot of new people, he exchanges electronic business cards through

his PCD and receives some documentation from some of the contacts. He stores everything

for later reviewing. When it is his turn to speak, he walks on to the stage and wirelessly

connects his PCD to the beamer.

He arranges to have dinner with a few other participants and since they stay in different

hotels they meet in a restaurant somewhere in Amsterdam. They sync their PCDs which

present them with a choice of restaurants based on their preferences. At night Phil’s PCD

guides him to the location using GPS.

The next morning Phil orders room-service and makes a video-call to his home where he is

linked to the kitchen screen and camera. This way he can have breakfast with his children.

Before he returns to the congress for the second day he reviews the business cards and

information some of the other attendants sent him. He sends an interesting one to his boss

immediately.

Reminiscing phase: Again all information is stored on the PCD and can be used for later

reference.

§5.3 Phil Gates: Incentive holiday

Situation: Because a major sales target has been reached, Phil, together with 24 other

managers, is spending 5 days on the Perhentian Islands in Malaysia. Besides engaging in

some team-building activities, the 5 days are mainly spent as leisure time. Sadly, he is not

allowed to take his wife and kids with him.


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Planning-phase: Everything is taken care of by a specialized incentive travel agent, the only

thing Phil receives is his eTickets and a illustrated itinerary with some additional background

information on the destination. The only thing he needs to do is pack the right items for a

beach holiday.

Tourist activity phase: The PCD guides Phil to the Airport where, again he is instantly

recognized through his PCD and the eTicket. In the airplane he wirelessly connects his PCD

to the screen in front of him. This time however, he has no work to do, so he decides to

watch his favourite TV-show which he was not able to see when he was at the congress last

week. After arriving in Malaysia, Phil receives a set of personalized holiday, activity and

entertainment offers on his PCD. He saves them for future reference.

On the islands he takes some pictures, and sends them home through email. He also keeps in

contact with his family through voice and video calls. He decides the Malaysia would be

ideal for the next family holiday and sends a selection of the offers he received home to his

wife.

Reminiscing phase: A lot of pictures and videos where shot during the incentive holiday and

a shared network is set up between the PCDs making selected images available to all.

§5.4 Jill Gates: Beach holiday

Situation: Jill Gates, Phil’s niece, also lives in Breda and plans to spend her summer holidays

in a beach destination with a few friends.

Planning phase: Jill has been on beach holidays before, mainly to Spain, but she and her

friends are not yet sure on the destination for this year. One of the decisive factors will be the

cost of the holiday. She enters her preferences in her PCD (Type of holiday, dates, length of

stay, preferred other services, etc.). After her preferences are known, she and her friends link

their PCDs and each of their personal preferences are compared, providing the girls with a set

of choices based on their preferences and the actual available offerings. These offerings are a

dynamic process, called ‘reverse auctions’, the holiday suppliers bid to get the girls to take

their package, one of them throws in a complementary spa treatment, the girls are sold, and

so is the holiday. Jill and her friends do not really want any other information about the

destination than where the nice places to eat, drink, dance and shop are. And during the


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preparation phase they are in constant contact with each other through their PCDs push-to-

talk function. Sending each other which-bikini-to-buy pictures from stores and talking

endlessly about the adventures they are going to have.

Tourist activity phase: Upon arrival Jill immediately receives discounts at all the bars and

discos and information on where the clothes she likes are on sale. (Notice the different

information she receives compared to her uncle Phil Gates, who has a completely different

set of preferences installed on his PCD) At the destination Jill uses her PCD to stay in contact

with all of her friends and family at home by making voice and video calls but also by

keeping a daily updated ‘weblog’ on the Internet containing text accompanied by some of the

many digital pictures and videos she takes. Jill also uses the GPS function to find out where

she is and where she needs to go for the nearest ATM machine. Another option she uses a lot

is the friend-finder; the girls all have their PCDs paired and are able to track each other down

when they get lost. The friend-finder

Reminiscing phase: Together with her friends, Jill recollects memories over their photos and

videos. They share their files by sending them to friends and family and by placing their

travel log on several travel community sites.

§5.5 Will Gates: Winter sports

Situation: John Gates’s teenage son, Will, is very much into sports and other outdoor

activities and goes on winter sport with a few friends. Because Will is into activities which

entail extra risk to the PCD, he has fitted his with an extra strong and waterproof casing.

Planning phase: The thing that is most important to Will and his friends is how the availability

of snowboarding facilities such as ramps, half-pipes and off-piste slopes. They gather

information on destinations from independent snowboard communities on the Internet and

compare the destinations themselves. The second-most important quality their destination

must possess is the availability of sufficient ‘Aprés Ski’ possibilities, luckily for the boys this

is the wish of most snowboarders and the places with the best snowboarding facilities

generally also boast a wide variety of festive establishments. They enter the destinations on

their wish-list into their PCD which starts the same ‘reversed auction’ service that Jill used.

They choose the cheapest option, in this case Les Deux Alpes, in the French Alps and all of


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the information is stored on their PCDs together with their selection of favourite

contemporary music and videos.

Tourist activity phase: During the bus-ride to Les Deux Alpes, Will watches a few of his

favourite movies. When he and his friends arrive at the chalet in Les Deux Alpes, the people

from the travel organization are waiting for them. They upload the software for opening the

door of the chalet, the electronic ski pass and transfer an interactive map to their PCDs. Using

this software the boys do not need to carry around additional keys, or keytags. And because

they use their PCD as an electronic wallet and a digital camera they do not have to bring

anything else along but their PCD.

On the mountain they use their PCDs to make photos and videos of their snowboarding antics

and keep track of their position and distance they have covered through the GPS function in

collaboration with the interactive map software they got from the travel organization.

In the bars they use the PCD to flirt with girls by using directional messaging. Like his sister,

Will also immediately shares photos and videos of their on- and off-piste adventures with

friends and family through an online ‘weblog’.

Reminiscing phase: Back home Will and his friends brag about their incredible jumps and

crashes accompanied by photo and video material. They share their tales and best ‘shots’ in

online communities.

§5.6 Karen Gates: Nature holiday

Situation: Karen Gates, Phil’s wife, is a true nature lover. She adores long hikes through the

woods and fields and is very much interested in the flora and fauna of the places she visits.

She combines her love for nature with her other hobby: photography, taking photographs of

the natural beauties she encounters. As she is the only one in the family who is into this type

of activity, she often takes weekend or week trips to natural sights on her own. As is the case

in this scenario, Phil does not need to travel for one week and can work from home taking

care of the children, this is a great opportunity for Karen to go on a short holiday.

Planning phase: Karen also uses a wish-list on her PCD, a wish-list of all the places she still

wants to see. On all these places she holds detailed files of the local flora and fauna. Her PCD


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includes all of these places in the search for the best deal, the system also takes into account

the time of the year, weather forecasts, length of stay, etcetera. The type of accommodation

and additional facilities is of less importance to Karen as her main requirement is nature. The

PCD comes up with a four-day holiday to the Norwegian Fjords. Karen is already looking

forward to it and starts to read up on the natural beauties of the Fjords. She stores all her

reference material on her PCD and uses an online guidebook to decide what areas she wants

to visit.

Tourist activity phase: Arriving at the destination, Karen calls her husband to let her now she

arrived safely at the hotel. Next she uses her PCD to consult the online regional tourism

council for up-to-date routing information. The tourism council prompts her with a notice on

guided treks, normally she is more of an independent traveller, but because of the large area

she wants to explore she decides to take a private guide for 3 days. On her trips around the

Fjords she uses her GPS to track the distance she covered and links the pictures she took to

the places on the map. For photography, she also uses the PCD, albeit one with heavily

upgraded camera functions. The information she loaded on the PCD comes in handy

whenever the guide does not know the answers to Karen’s special interest questions, which is

quite often. Well, he does not need to know what the mating rituals of the ‘Pine Grosbeak’

are, he just needs to know where to find one. In the evenings Karen links her PCD to the

cameras at home, enabling her to share her stories with her family, and just having them

around in the background.

Reminiscing phase: Part of the fun for Karen is her logbook; she keeps extensive information

on all the places she visited, including GPS records, photographs and stories. She shares all of

this information with fellow nature-lovers in special-interest online communities. Her

photography graces the various digital photo frames hanging around the house. (These digital

photo frames are screens that can show digital pictures, it can hold many and be set to act as a

slideshow or just show one picture.)

§5.7 John Gates: Culture holiday

Situation: John’s passion is cultural explorations. He loves to read about it but especially

loves to experience different cultures. In pursuit of this passion he goes on many long and

short trips around the world. In this scenario he plans to spend a weekend in a large European

city.


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Planning phase: Like his sister in law, Karen, John has a wish-list of destinations around the

world he wants to visit. John’s PCD considers yet again different values in the determination

of the choice of destinations. It takes a look at the destinations still on John’s wish-list that fall

within the European city category. It also takes into account the date of travel and the

activities and festivals that are organized on those dates. Another requirement of John is that

he likes to stay in historically significant buildings or areas. The PCD comes up with a few

choices, but the Edinburgh and the Edinburgh Military Tattoo is something John has always

wanted to see. His preparation is similar to that of Karen, where she read about flora and

fauna, John reads about the history of Scotland and Edinburgh in particular. He gathers a lot

of information and stores reference works on his PCD.

Tourist activity phase: At the destination John uses his PCD’s GPS function to guide him

through the streets of Edinburgh. He linked all the sights he wants to see to the GPS map and

is presented with the option for more information through his PCD when he is in the vicinity

of a place of interest. He also allowed local retailers to send him promotional material. The

preset personal configuration in the PCD makes sure that John only receives advertisements

and offers regarding things he might be interested in. This filter is not only preference bound

but also takes into account the time of the offer and the geographic location of the user. John

will not receive offers between 21:30 pm and 8:30 am for example. And offers from lunch

and dinner establishments will only be allowed around lunch and dinner times. He will also

only receive messages within a preset vicinity of his present location, or in the case of driving

in a car, along the route he is taking. This way, John is not pestered with SPAM all day long.

Around 6 o’clock John receives several dinner options and discounts on his PCD, he chooses

the traditional Scottish restaurant ‘Jacksons’ on the historic Royal Mile because they offer

him a complementary Scottish whiskey.

After dinner he calls his children to let them know everything is okay and sends them a

picture of the ‘haggis’ he ate that evening.

Reminiscing phase: After returning from his trip to Edinburgh, John uses his PCD to share the

pictures with his colleagues at work. He also shares his stories with an online special interest

community he belongs to.


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§5.8 Will Gates: Adventure holiday

Situation: As stated earlier, Will is into outdoor activities and sports and likes to incorporate

these elements into his travel behaviour as well. This time Will and some classmates want to

go on a survival weekend to the Belgian Ardennes.

Planning phase: Will and his friends know exactly what they want: a reasonably priced

package tour survival weekend excluding transport. They choose one of the options provided

by the PCD that offers them an extra rock climbing arrangement. Since they drive to the

Ardennes themselves they store the address of the accommodation in the PCD.

Tourist activity phase: The GPS function routes the boys to the survival accommodation. Not

many of the functions on the PCD are needed in this type of holiday. Will takes pictures and

videos and as usual, uses the device as a portable media player (PMC) for playing his music

and video files. He also uses the PCD as a mobile (video)phone. In emergency situations the

PCD can provide Will means of communication to get help but if he turns missing, and is

unable to call for help by himself, maybe because something happened, the friend-finder

function enables other people to easily track him down. Will also uses the GPS function to

keep track of the route they have taken and links these coordinates to his pictures.

Reminiscing phase: Especially the route they took is of extra illustrative value when Will

shares his memories, in the form of photos and videos, with his friends and family.

§5.9 John Gates: Tourism to developing countries

Situation: As explained earlier, John’s passion is cultural explorations. In this scenario he

plans a three-week holiday to Mongolia.

Planning phase: John wants to fly to Ulaan Baatar and take a jeep from there onto the

Mongolian steppes to stay with a nomadic family in a ger tent. He wants to live with them and

learn about their customs. He does not want to stay in a over-commercialized ger camp build

solely for the purpose of housing tourists, these have sprung up all around Ulaan Baatar the

past 10 years. He wants to spend time emerged in the ‘real’ Mongolian culture. His PCD

suggests flight times, jeep rental companies and some places he can stay in a ger tent. When

John cross-references the options with information he got from special interest online travel

communities and finds only one option suits his taste, he books it. In his preparations he buys


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English-Mongolian/ Mongolian-English voice translation software for his PCD from the

online dictionary store, it is not cheap, but worth it to John. He feels he learns so much more

from the local culture when it is possible to directly communicate with them. Especially in

developing countries, where the level of foreign languages is low it is of great value. He also

decides to bring his portable solar-panels, because you never know how the power supply is

going to be in the middle of nowhere. In the weeks before his departure, John goes through as

much information on Mongolia and the life on the steppes as he can find. He bookmarks the

most interesting parts on his PCD.

Tourist activity phase: On the plane John connects his PCD to the screen in front of him and

(again) watches a documentary on Mongolian nomadic life, he cannot wait to get there.

Arriving in Ulaan Baatar he receives information on an exposition in the Mongolian Artists’

Exhibition Hall, he was already planning to go there but is happy with the up-to-date

information anyway. His translation software immediately comes in handy, the taxi driver

speaks nothing but Mongolian. That same evening John finds a little Mongolian restaurant he

cannot find in the PCD anywhere, it is called ‘Amtat Bulag’ and it turns out that they just

opened two days earlier and that he is their first foreign customer. John has a great meal in a

fantastic atmosphere and decides to share this experience with the online community he

belongs to. He takes a picture of the place and writes a review of the food, together with the

location he posts the message. This way they are ensured of some more tourist business in the

future. Next time somebody is looking for an authentic meal in Ulaan Baatar, ‘Amtat Bulag’

is among the options.

The next day John is picked up by his driver who takes him to the ger camp he will be

staying. John uses his PCD to track the ‘road’ the follow through the steppes so he can see

how far he travelled when he gets back. The drive to the camp he chose takes him two days

and they camp overnight. Thanks to the translation software on the PCD (and the solar panel

to keep it running) John and his Mongolian driver a have elaborate talks on Mongolian

culture. John takes a lot of pictures and sends a few of them home to his family. During his

stay in the ger camp, John uses his translation software a lot and records all of these talks for

later reference. He also uses the PCD for taking photos, videos and writing in his weblog.

On his way back home, John starts sorting all his digital memories and feels he learned a great

deal about the culture of the nomadic Mongolians.


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Reminiscing phase: After his return to Breda, John creates an online travel report containing

photos, videos, written stories and sound bites from the talks he had with the Mongolian

nomads. He shares his memories with friends and family. He wirelessly sends the pictures he

particularly likes to the digital photo frames he has in the house.

§5.10 The entire Gates family: VFR holiday

Situation: The entire Gates family: Phil, Karen and their children and John and his children,

Jill and Will, are planning to visit Phil and John’s other brother Bill in Seattle for

thanksgiving. He owns a large estate and they can all stay with him in his house.

Planning phase: The only thing the family needs to organize is the flight to Seattle, John is the

most frequent flyer and gets the highest discounts in the ‘reverse auction’ process. It is

therefore him who organizes the tickets. He sends the e-Tickets to the PCD of all family

members. Each of them makes a selection of family photographs they want to take to Seattle

for sharing with the family. (they could share them over the Internet, but it is more

comfortable to share them in real life with an accompanying story)

Tourist activity phase: Arriving in Seattle, Bill has sent a minibus to pick the family up from

the airport. At Bill’s estate the family recollects old times and link their PCDs in order to

share pictures and other documents, this also enables them to find each other and hold push-

to-talk conversations when necessary. As a surprise Bill upgrades all of their PCDs to the

latest technological standards.

Reminiscing phase: After their return to Breda, everyone writes their own accounts on their

weblog and share their memories with other friends and family.

§5.11 Scenario considerations

As one can observe the PCD has many uses for business application and travel information.

Phil uses his PCD for everyday time-management, entertainment, connectivity, etcetera. This

mobile device enables him to do more with his time. However, there are also many uses of

the PCD in leisure travel and everyday use. The integration of mobile phones in everyday life

has changed the way we communicate. The convergence of other devices with the mobile

phone will cause an evolution into a PCD-like device, which will again change the way we

communicate. The digitalisation of society will not cause people to be separated but will


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bring them closer together. Look at MSN Messenger today, and realize that it was never

before so easy and common to converse with friends and family across the globe. Following

upon the current VoIP developments and webcam use, these developments will go mobile as

well.

Besides the fact that the PCD will enable shared lives across the Internet with people

thousands of kilometres away, it also enables more efficient use of time and space. With a

mobile devices it is no longer needed sit down behind a stationary computer to surf the

Internet, check email or write reports. Everything is possible on-the-go, eliminating wasted

time at train stations, waiting-rooms and the like.

As stated earlier, most of the technology that is needed to build a PCD is already available or

in development, the main advances will be made in the services offered through this mobile

device. However, reliable information is costly and keeping it up-to-date even more.

Therefore the online communities are likely to be a main driving force in the development of

information databases. More and more people start using online communities and services

such as Wikipedia prove the popularity of such services. In a similar program for tourist

destinations, people could enter their own account of what it is and update the information,

other people can change or complement this content, ensuring an up-to-date unbiased source

of information. A score-system based upon all the entries for the past time period can provide

a good insight in perceived quality of the destination’s various aspects. This could be

complemented by adding a discussion board for each destination. This way the information is

cheap because it is based on voluntarily entered information by participants. The information

will be reliable, because the number of ‘honest’ people will outweigh the ‘dishonest’ ones,

resulting in a balanced flow of information.

After providing this set of scenarios based upon the types of travel provided in chapter 4.3,

the next and final chapter of this thesis formulates the implications of these scenarios by

relating the scenarios to the other main stakeholders.


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Chapter 6 - Implications and final conclusions

This last chapter looks back on the trends, forecast and scenarios. What are their implications

for the main stakeholders involved and how can the scenarios be of use to them are the main

questions that are answered here. First some implications for the tourists are mentioned,

followed by the other stakeholders: the tourism sector and the technology sector. Lastly, final

conclusions on the goal of this thesis and the advice for further research are discussed.

§6.1 Implications for the tourists

The possibilities of mobile communication technologies for the tourists have been elaborately

covered in the scenarios in chapter 5. But what are the implications of the use of these

technologies? A few effects that were identified are that mobile communication technologies

increase the amount of communication between people and the ability of communication

between people of different languages. Another effect is that there is easier access to all kinds

of information, including travel related information. A combination of these effects results in

another implication: increased educational possibilities in tourism.

More communication between people

Mobile communication technologies in an always-online environment enable users to

communicate more intensely with their relations. Not only through voice but also through

video and text, anywhere, anytime. This can be a good thing for a lot of people staying in

remote areas or in business travel when direct consultation with colleagues is vital to business

proceedings.

The downside of this always-online communication mode is that there will also be more

social control within relationships. ‘Why don’t you switch on your camera when I call you?’

asks the jealous wife when she calls her husband while he is at the strip-club instead of the

sports-bar. Or imagine working on a complaint-line for a company, now you do not only need

to sound friendly, you need to look friendly as well! Will this result in businesses starting to

‘The future is what you make of it, so make it a

good one.’

- Dr. Emmet Brown (Back to the Future)


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employ people based on how representative they look on the videophone? All these issues

imply that there will be a need for new etiquette in the use of new communication devices.

Communication between people of different languages

A second implication for the user of mobile communication technologies is that translation

software will enable people with different languages to speak to each other, using the a

mobile device as their interpreter. Tourists can now communicate with people that in many

cases could not be communicated with before. This could make travel much easier, for

example in asking for directions, ordering food, etcetera.

Although not weighing against the advantages of this possibility, a disadvantage is that it is no

longer possible to converse on delicate matters or make jokes about people in ones native

language, because mobile communication devices will enable others to understand what is

being said.

Easy access to information

A PCD-like device providing users with immediate online information on tourist facilities

would enable tourists to engage in more spontaneous travel behaviour; ‘Honey, let’s go to

Antwerp. Now.’ Immediate travel urges are no longer restrained by information needs; route

information, hotel and restaurant arrangements, etcetera can be arranged on the way. In some

situations this will shorten or even eliminate the pre-visit phase of travel.

Another implication of an increased ease of accessing information is that it is very easy to

compare prices, this empowers the tourists in his or her relation to the tourism supplier.

Various examples can already be found on the Internet on finding the cheapest flight tickets

available (bases on GDS-systems): www.tickettracker.nl, www.travelocity.com and

www.cheaptickets.nl. The possibilities of mobile use of such services are already emerging,

the interesting part will be when the so called ‘reversed auctions’ start to be implemented.

This would really empower the tourist.

A disadvantage of easy access to information is that people can become too dependent, or rely

too much on the information that is presented to them. Not everything on the Internet is true;

everyone nowadays can start their own website, or post their own weblog or podcasts.


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Regulations or a quality scheme should be developed, providing the consumer with a list of

‘trustworthy’ providers.

Increased educational possibilities in tourism

Considering the implications mentioned above: an increase in the availability of information

and the ability to communicate with people with other languages, one can conclude that this

enables increased educational possibilities in tourism. Information on certain buildings,

paintings, people, flora, fauna, etcetera can be immediately accessed. The information can

even be presented in personalized ways through information push functions, adapting the

level of difficulty, the way it is presented to the user of the device. Communication between

people with different languages will enable the tourist to interact with and learn immediately

from the locals.

There are some threats that need to be considered as well. Some communities choose to live

their life a certain way. Intrusion of tourists, albeit with the best intentions, is likely to have

great impacts on the community. Many socio-cultural studies have been devoted to this

subject and this thesis will not elaborate on it any further.

§6.2 Implications for the tourism sector

There are a lot of implications for the tourism sector. Whenever the consumer of a product or

service changes the way he or she consumes, it involves major consequences for the supplier

of that product or service. In order to get a clearer view on the implications for the tourism

sector, the division mentioned in chapter 4.3 by Middleton and Clarke (2001) is applied.

Accommodation sector

The main focus for the tourism sector lies on technological innovation. When applications

like electronic wallets, wireless broadband access, etcetera become more and more integrated

within society and daily use, they will also be expected from service providers in tourism.

Like the adoption of online hotel bookings, other general accepted technologies will also find

their way into the accommodation sector. It is however, those who invest in innovation, and

take a risk once in a while, that are most likely to draw attention to themselves and turn these

opportunities into profits.


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The accommodation sector needs to invest in wireless connectivity for tourists. Especially

when a PCD-like situation would emerge most people will be dependent on mobile access all

the time. Currently, more and more hotels offer wireless Internet connection to their guests,

some are being charged, others are for free. While the offering of such services is regarded as

added value now, within a few years the tourist will be expecting a wireless broadband

connection as a standard amenity included in the service.

The accommodation sector also needs to react to the trend towards an increasingly

independent traveller, especially the possibility of mobile communication technology for

more ‘spontaneous’ travel. When the tourist is more likely to take unplanned short trips he or

she will most likely also react differently to advertising. The accommodation sector could

investigate the possibility to send users advertisements, possibly with coupons or discounts on

specific times and places, adjusted to consumer profiles.

Personalization is a big issue in the future of tourism which is largely facilitated by

Information Technologies. The accommodation sector can bind guests to their service by

offering them a personalized service. Many accommodations already keep records of their

guests and know when someone is returning, information technology however allows them to

record so much more information, possibly making the stay of the guest much homelier and

pleasant. In the future the mobile device of the guest will transmit these preferences and it is

up to the accommodation to what extend it can comply with those wishes. The quality of the

hotel will be perceived as the extend to which it satisfies ones personal needs.

Attraction sector

The attraction sector needs investments in mobile booking and ticketing services. These can

reduce waiting times at the entrance of attractions.

Localization technologies offer a unique chance in crowd-management. The routing devices

can be used to route guests around an attraction in a way they encounter as little other tourists

as possible, optimally managing the visitor flow. This is especially useful in national or

wildlife parks, but also in narrow streets of crowded historical city centres, for example in

Venice.


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Regarding personalization, theme parks for example can personalize and streamline the visit

of the guest by letting them choose their attractions in advance. They are given a time-slot and

are timely routed to the specific attraction or ride, eliminating waiting times. Another

implication personalization has is that an attraction is able to provide the guest with profile

oriented information. The PCD of the guest lets the attraction know what kind of information

the user needs. It is then up to the user if he or she wishes to receive that information.

These possibilities offer opportunities for deepening the content of the service and really

integrating the individual tourist with the offered service. In time, tourists will demand such

personalized services from the service provider. The attractions that manage the personal

preferences best and can adapt their service to those specific needs will be able to distinguish

themselves among their competitors.

Transport sector

RFID enables transportation systems to streamline their traveller access. RFID access could

be incorporated in mobile devices but could also be implemented in ‘chip coins’, like the ones

that are being used in the Kuala Lumpur metro system. These however, need to be bought

from machines, still risking cueing and losing valuable time. Public transport could increase

its traveller numbers by offering full-public-transport cards/ software, enabling the tourist to

use any bus, metro, tram or train within a destination at a fixed rate.

An implication of localization possibilities is fitting for example the busses with GPS. This

would enable an information stream towards the traveller on bus routes, arrival times, length

of the trip, alternative routes etcetera. These possibilities are especially interesting for tourists

who don’t know their way around.

At airports, and other transportation hubs that need security measures, biometric scans in

combination with traveller databases could drastically streamline proceedings. One example

is that technologies can enable passports to contain digital data on the person making it more

difficult to counterfeit. While today, check-in can be done though the internet, in the future

the eTicket checks itself in using wireless connections.

The transportation sector needs to realize that their service is often regarded as lost time

between destinations or attractions, not counting where transportation is the attraction or is


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meant for sightseeing activities. Mobile communication technologies enable the traveller to

spend his or her ‘waiting’ time leisurely or doing business. Offering information services,

broadband Internet connections or public kiosks in transportation facilities are a few of the

possibilities for the transport sector.

Travel organizers’ sector

Like all the other sectors, the travel organizers also need to change the way the offer

information to the tourists. The possibilities of interactive media for advertising a product or

service offer much more possibilities than a traditional paper brochure.

Because people are more spontaneous in their travel plans the marketing of travel products

needs to be geared towards this type of travel as well. While the saying goes: ‘getting there is

half the fun.’ this is only true for a certain group of tourists. Others will prefer an holiday

where the outline is taken care of, believing that the best way to be spontaneous is to plan,

that a plan gives one freedom from the niggling details that take up precious vacation time.

When looking at all-inclusive holidays, this view combined with personalization and

technological developments can be applied to expand the all-inclusive experience beyond the

resort. Local bars, restaurants, public transport, shows, etcetera can be included in the package

using RF-tags containing all of the needed information.

The travel organizers’ sector should involve the tourist in the dynamic composition of the

service, in the future this is achieved by receiving the tourist’s profile or preferences and

incorporate them in the construction of the package. This ensures an higher degree of

personalization of the tourism product. The sector’s development of flexible services is

therefore important.

In order to achieve a situation where the tourism sector can offer the tourist highly

personalized services it needs to interconnect information and services, this will enable an

optimum travel information offering.

Destination organisation sector

One of the implications for the destination organization sector is that the marketing of a

destination’s aspects can be personalized, optimizing the reach of a campaign. For different

tourist profiles, different aspects of a destination can be highlighted. This enables the sector to

promote their product to the tourist, only mentioning the things he or she is interested in.


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This last implication relates to the tourism sector rethinking the way they offer their services

to people, a pro-active approach will be needed where the offering seamlessly connects to the

personal preferences and needs of the consumer.

These implications for the tourism sector are closely related to the cooperation between the

tourism sector and the technology sector. Waiting for technological products, and then

looking at what can be done with them results in services that are not quite ‘it’. By working

together on the development of technological products and services for the tourist, the best

results will be achieved and they will be achieved faster. The next paragraph discusses some

of the implication for the technology sector.

§6.3 Implications for the technology sector

The following are implications specific for the technology sector. The division of the sector as

given in chapter 4.3 is used.

Mobile phone network operators

When mobile communication technology use increases in (international) travel, mobile phone

network operators need to improve their international compatibility. Roaming contracts need

to be watertight to ensure problem-free, comfortable and easy to use services throughout the

travel phases. When something is not easy to use, it will not be a success with the general

public. Standardization is a key issue here, the value of a service will increase when more

people start using it. More users equals more industry support and development.

Standardization however, has proven to be a difficult topic throughout the history of

technological developments: Betamax versus VHS; Gameconsoles using different media;

mobile phone technology using different systems; new generation of storage like DVD versus

HDVD versus Blueray. These are only a few examples. Standardization is definitely one of

the key factors that need attention.

Mobile phone manufacturers

The mobile phone manufacturers are the stakeholders which are likely to develop the PCD-

like devices. The current trend of convergence where mobile phones integrate with PDA

functions, MP3-players and digital cameras, is likely to continue because of the apparent

advantages this trend poses. Current uptake of these functions however, has been low. Mobile

phone users are yet to catch on to the new functions mainly using the ‘traditional’ voice calls


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and text messages. Reineke Reitsma, Manager of Quantitative Research Operations at

Forrester Research, quoted in an article on 3g.co.uk (2005): ‘More than 60% of mobile users

aged 16 to 24 have an Internet-capable mobile phone, but only 18% of them actually use

mobile Internet services. We see the same lack of interest when it comes to mobile phone

features. While features like polyphonic ring tones, mobile Internet capability, colour screens,

and the ability to download games are most widespread at the moment, a high 63% of mobile

users say they don’t need a sophisticated phone; they just need it for voice calling and

messaging.’ Ease of could again be the key-word, an interface which allows users the same

easy access to information as the Internet on PCs and laptops is needed.

Software developers

Regarding the software development, different software packages need to be developed for

different users. Where business travellers want everything taken care of them; providing

effective time-management, the tourist might not want such a product. According to Brown

and Chalmers (2003), ‘tourists deliberately make plans that are not highly structured and

specific, so that they can take advantage of changing circumstances.’ Tourism developers

‘must be careful not to become too focused on utility, as tourists’ problems are not like work

problems. Solving these problems is actually part of the enjoyment of being a tourist. In

deciding what to do and how to do it, a tourist learns about the place they are visiting. As the

old saying goes: ‘getting there is half the fun’.’

Therefore, ‘good tourist technologies are not only those that make tourists more efficient, but

that also make tourism more enjoyable.’ ‘Much of what is enjoyable about leisure is that it

provides and opportunity to spend time with friends or family. In some senses, the leisure

activity itself is less important than the fact that time is spend with significant others.

Technologies that are woven into this sociality are more likely to be used in preference to

those that are not.’(Brown & Chalmers, 2003)

Stakeholder cooperation

In developing new mobile communication technologies diffusion between various fields of

expertise is required. Location Based Information for example requires besides the hardware

producer and the service-provider, also ‘the skills from GIS experts as well as information

systems development community.’ ‘There is no single actor that controls the information that

is needed for a service to be delivered, several companies and organizations have to cooperate


85

in a network organizational context.’ (Eriksson, 2001) This implies that in order to provide

services the tourist will actually use, all stakeholders need to cooperate to ensure success.

§6.4 Final conclusions

The goal of this thesis was to explore and analyze the future possibilities for mobile

communication technologies in the tourism process, providing a range of future scenarios and

conclude what their implications are, in order to create awareness of these aspects amongst

those involved in tourism.

All of the questions that arose from this goal have been answered throughout the previous

chapters. The scenarios that followed are, however, only possibilities for the future. They are

possibilities that are intended to open the eyes and minds of those involved in tourism. The

next step for the readers should be to utilize this opened mind in envisioning their own future

possibilities. They can apply scenarios of mobile communication technology to their company

or organization, to their product or service, to their sector, to their competitors, to their

customers and to their vision. Such an approach will feed creative minds in realizing

innovative tourism services in the future. Returning to this chapter’s quote by Dr. Emmet

Brown: ‘The future is what you make of it, so make it a good one.’


86

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Appendix 1 - Glossary

1G

In mobile telephony, first-generation systems were analog, circuit-switched. Voice links were

poor, handoff unreliable, capacity low, and security non-existent. 1G systems are not now

under active development ? indeed, in some areas 1G spectrum is being auctioned for 2G and

3G use. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

2G

In mobile telephony, second-generation protocols use digital encoding and include GSM, D-

AMPS (TDMA) and CDMA. 2G networks are in current use around the world. These

protocols support high bit rate voice and limited data communications. They offer auxiliary

services such as data, fax and SMS. Most 2G protocols offer different levels of encryption.

(http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

2.5G

In mobile telephony, 2.5G protocols extend 2G systems to provide additional features such as

packet-switched connection (GPRS) and enhanced data rates (HSCSD, EDGE).


3G

In mobile telephony, third-generation protocols support much higher data rates, measured in

Mbps, intended for applications other than voice. 3G networks trials started in Japan in 2001.

3G networks are expected to be starting in Europe and part of Asia/Pacific by 2002, and in the

US later. 3G will support bandwidth-hungry applications such as full-motion video, video-

conferencing and full Internet access. www.3gpp.org (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

AGPS

AGPS or Assisted GPS is a variant of GPS used in cell phones. It uses an assistance server to

cut down the time needed to find the location. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGPS, 2005)


93

AMPS

Advanced Mobile Phone System: a 1G standard which operates in the 800-900MHz-

frequency band. It is still widely used in the United States. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

Analog

The simple way to transmit speech, which is translated into electronic signals of different

frequency and/or amplitude. The first networks for mobile phones, as well as broadcast

transmissions, were analog. Due to being longer established in some countries, analog

networks may offer better coverage than digital networks, however analog phones are less

secure and suffer more from interference where the signal is weak. Analog systems include

AMPS, NMT and ETACS. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

Bluetooth

An open specification for seamless wireless short-range communications of data and voice

between both mobile and stationary devices. For instance, it specifies how mobile phones,

computers and PDAs interconnect with each other, with computers, and with office or home

phones. The first generation of Bluetooth permits exchange of data up to a rate of 1 Mbps per

second, even in areas with much electromagnetic disturbance. It transmits and receives via a

short-range radio link using a globally available frequency band (2.4 GHz ISM band).


CDMA

Code Division Multiple Access: a digital wireless telephony transmission technique.

1. CDMA allows multiple frequencies to be used simultaneously (Spread Spectrum). The

CDMA idea was originally developed for military use over 30 years ago.

2. The CDMA standards used for second-generation mobile telephony are the IS-95 standards

championed by QUALCOMM. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

Content Provider

A company that provides services to mobile phone users or network operators. These services

could be shopping, web surfing, chat rooms, playing games, accessing data such as music and

books through a server. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)


94

Digital

A way of encoding information. On digital networks, data doesn’t need to go though the extra

step of being converted to an analog signal, voice is sampled and coded in a way similar to

how it is recorded on a CD. Digital networks are fast replacing analog ones as they offer

improved sound quality, secure transmission and can handle data directly as well as voice.

Digital networks include mobile systems GSM, D-AMPS, CDMA, TDMA and UMTS.


DSL

(Digital Subscriber Line) Refers collectively to all types of digital subscriber lines, the two

main categories being ADSL and SDSL. Two other types of xDSL technologies are High-

data-rate DSL (HDSL) and Very high DSL (VDSL). DSL technologies use sophisticated

modulation schemes to pack data onto copper wires. They are sometimes referred to as last-

mile technologies because they are used only for connections from a telephone switching

station to a home or office, not between switching stations. xDSL is similar to ISDN

inasmuch as both operate over existing copper telephone lines (POTS) and both require the

short runs to a central telephone office (usually less than 20,000 feet). However, xDSL offers

much higher speeds - up to 32 Mbps for upstream traffic, and from 32 Kbps to over 1 Mbps

for downstream traffic. (http://www.ucla.cyberstuff.net/glossary_digital_media.htm, 2005)

EDGE

Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution. An enhanced modulation technique designed to

increase network capacity and data rates in GSM networks. EDGE should provide data rates

up to 384 Kbps. EDGE will let operators without a 3G license to compete with 3G networks

offering similar data services. EDGE is not expected before 2001 at the earliest.


GPRS

General Packet Radio Service: a radio technology for GSM networks that adds packet-

switching protocols, shorter set-up time for ISP connections, and offer the possibility to

charge by amount of data sent rather than connect time. GPRS promises to support flexible

data transmission rates typically up to 20 or 30 Kbps (with a theoretical maximum of 171.2

Kbps), as well as continuous connection to the network. A 2.5G enhancement to GSM, GPRS

is the most significant step towards 3G, needing similar business model, and service and


95

network architectures. GPRS started to appear in some networks during 2000.


GPS

Short for Global Positioning System, a worldwide MEO satellite navigational system formed

by 24 satellites orbiting the earth and their corresponding receivers on the earth. The satellites

orbit the earth at approximately 12,000 miles above the surface and make two complete orbits

every 24 hours. The GPS satellites continuously transmit digital radio signals that contain data

on the satellites location and the exact time to the earth-bound receivers. The satellites are

equipped with atomic clocks that are precise to within a billionth of a second. Based on this

information the receivers know how long it takes for the signal to reach the receiver on earth.

As each signal travels at the speed of light, the longer it takes the receiver to get the signal,

the farther away the satellite is. By knowing how far away a satellite is, the receiver knows

that it is located somewhere on the surface of an imaginary sphere centered at the satellite. By

using three satellites, GPS can calculate the longitude and latitude of the receiver based on

where the three spheres intersect. By using four satellites, GPS can also determine altitude.

(www.webopedia.com, 2005)

GSM

Global System for Mobile communications, the most widely used digital mobile phone

system and the de facto wireless telephone standard in Europe. Originally defined as a pan-

European open standard for a digital cellular telephone network to support voice, data, text

messaging and cross-border roaming. GSM is now one of the world's main 2G digital wireless

standards. GSM is present in more than 160 countries and according to the GSM Association,

accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total digital cellular wireless market. GSM is a

time division multiplex (TDM) system. Implemented on 800, 900, 1800 and 1900 MHz

frequency bands. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

Hotspot

A hotspot is a Wi-Fi access point or area, in particular for connecting to Internet.Hotspots are

found near restaurants, train stations, airports, cafes, libraries and other public places.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotspot_(wifi), 2005)


96

HSCSD

High Speed Circuit Switched Data: dedicated circuit-switched data communications

technology for GSM which boosts data throughput up to 14.4 Kbps in a single channel, and

by aggregating channels, up to 57.6 Kbps. An asymmetrical service can be offered where, for

instance, one channel is allocated for the uplink and several are aggregated for the downlink.

HSCSD can provide a fixed bit rate (transparent mode) or a variable one (non-transparent

mode). In most cases HSCSD is available to network operators as a pure software upgrade.

HSCSD started to appear in some networks in 1999. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

IT

information technology: the branch of engineering that deals with the use of computers and

telecommunications to retrieve and store and transmit information

(http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn, 2005)

M-Business

According to the Oxfort English Dictionary (2004) the definition of m-business is:

‘commercial transactions conducted electronically by mobile phone.’ (www.webopedia.com,

2005)

PCD



browsing the Internet, email, GPS, voice recognition and security soft- and hardware.

PDA

Personal Digital Assistant is a term for any small mobile hand held device that provides

computing and information storage retrieval capabilities for personal or business use, often

for keeping schedule calendars and adress book information handy.

(www.voiceanddata.com.au/vd/admin/glossary.asp, 2005)

RFID

(pronounced as separate letters) Short for radio frequency identification, a technology similar

in theory to bar code identification. With RFID, the electromagnetic or electrostatic coupling

in the RF portion of the electromagnetic spectrum is used to transmit signals. An RFID


97

system consists of an antenna and a transceiver, which read the radio frequency and transfer

the information to a processing device, and a transponder, or RF-tag, which is an integrated

circuit containing the RF circuitry and information to be transmitted. (www.webopedia.com,

2005)

Smartphone

A generic name for voice centric mobile phones with information capability. The Ericsson

R380 Smartphone is an example of such a Symbian OS phone. (http://webdeveloper.pl/,

2005)

SMS

Short Message Service: available on digital GSM networks allowing text messages of up to

160 characters to be sent and received via the network operator's message center to your

mobile phone, or from the Internet, using a so-called "SMS gateway" website. If the phone is

powered off or out of range, messages are stored in the network and are delivered at the next

opportunity. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

UMTS

Universal Mobile Telecommunications Service, part of the IMT-2000 initiative, is a 3G

standard supporting a theoretical data throughput of up to 2 Mbps. First trials started in 2001.

It should be rolled out in most of the world by 2005. (http://webdeveloper.pl/, 2005)

VoIP

Voice over Internet Protocol. The technology used to transmit voice conversations over a data

network using the Internet Protocol. Such data network may be the Internet or a corporate

Intranet. (www.shiftnetworks.com/glossary.cfm, 2005)

WCDMA

Wide-band CDMA: a CDMA protocol originated by NTT DoCoMo and now adopted for

third-generation use by ETSI in Europe. WCDMA supports very high-speed multimedia

services such as full-motion video, Internet access and video conferencing.



98

Wi-Fi

Short for wireless fidelity and is meant to be used generically when referring of any type of

802.11 network, whether 802.11b, 802.11a, dual-band, etc. The term is promulgated by the

Wi-Fi Alliance. (www.webopedia.com, 2005)

WiMax

The name commonly given to the IEEE 802.16 standard. (www.webopedia.com, 2005)


99

Appendix 2 - Types of forecasting

A brief summary of types of forecasting according to Van Doorn and Van Vught in their book

‘Forecasting – methoden en technieken voor toekomstonderzoek’.

Van Doorn and Van Vught (1978) divide forecasting into four different processes:

1. Explorative forecasting

Explorative forecasting involves trends and projections, based on the assumption that the

future is free of surprises and a logical expansion of (parts of) the current situation, including

the possibility of logical alternatives of existing phenomena. The following techniques are

given as examples of explorative forecasting:

- Extrapolation

Is the application of a trendline which consists of empirical data of a range of phenomena. In

extrapolation this line is continued into the future along the same speed of developments. This

type of forecasting is often referred to as a limited and naïve form of forecasting. Van Doorn

and Van Vught (1978) conclude that this type of forecasting is only valuable if it is combined

with other forecasting techniques.

- Regression analysis

Is the analysis of the relationship of two (or more) trend-lines. For example the trends of

people who smoke and people who get lung-cancer. If on reasonable grounds related

empirical data shows that the amount of people with lung-cancer has risen as well as the

people who smoke, a reasonable projection based on this link can be made on the amount of

people who smoke, get lung-cancer in the future. Van Doorn and Van Vught (1978) conclude

that forecasts based on regression analysis is not suited for points in time that are far away

from the current data reach.

- Analogy method

The analogy-method is based on the belief that the development of one phenomenon is

comparable to the development of another. According to Van Doorn and Van Vught (1978)

many other forecasting techniques also contain analogy-related aspects or principles. They


100

conclude that the analogy-method needs to be applied with great care because in most cases

there are not enough convincing arguments to assume that one system or process will develop

the same way as the other.

- Projective scenarios

Scenarios are hypothetical series of events; they provide the reader with possible

developments towards a future situation. In creating projective scenarios the intention is to

demonstrate how, from a current situation, a future situation could logically, step by step

develop. The ultimate goal is to provide insight in, and to make the reader sensitive to the

possible alternative futures.

- Morphological analysis

The idea is that big problems are visualized in a way that a systematic perspective is offered

on all possible solutions. Each problem is broken down to its base-dimensions and mentions

as many variations as possible to each dimension. Morphological analysis is an elaborate and

complicated process.

2. Speculative forecasting

Speculative forecasting provides subjective possibility quotes regarding current developments

and events. The following techniques are given as examples of speculative forecasting:

- Probability thinking

One type of probability thinking is making use of subjective estimations. Another is a

mathematical process to determine the probability of a certain set of variables. Either way,

probability thinking is an important instrument for analysis in forecasting.

- S.I.G. techniques

S.I.G. stands for ‘Subjective Iterative Group-processes’ It is a group process where those

involved are the various actors involved are equally represented. The group needs to work

together and the individuals need to stand for their own perspectives. Through a group

process a forecast is formed, using these subjective opinions are the basis.

3. Explicative forecasting


101

Explicative forecasting points to necessary developments, their consequences and separate

probabilities, connected to a preferred preset goal. The following techniques are given as

examples of explicative forecasting:

- Prospective scenarios

Where projective forecasting is focussed on what happened in the past and projects this into

the future, prospective methods focus on the openness of the future. How will trends change

is the question to ask, instead of how will trends continue. Prospective forecasting means

inquisitive acting, creative fantasies, innovation and focussed on changes at hand. Prospective

scenarios differ from projective scenarios in the fact that the ‘social fantasy’ takes an

important place. They are not only based on empirical data and logical developments, but

mostly on the desirable aspects. Prospective scenarios are primarily instruments to link

imagination and intuition to a rational analysis.

- PATTERN

PATTERN stands for ‘Planning Assistance Through Technical Evaluation of Relevance

Numbers’. PATTERN is a need-inspired analysis in which the many complex, inter-relating

variables are arranged in a tree-shape for evaluation. Its industrial character makes it less

applicable for social forecasting techniques.

4. Integrative forecasting

Integrative forecasting attempts to bring about an internally consistent pattern of relations

between separate forecasts and pays attention to several implications of and relations between

separate wished or perceived as probable events and developments. The following techniques

are given as examples of integrative forecasting:

- Models

The reduction of reality into models offers a possibility for a clearer overview. There are

many different model classifications and typologies. Some of these models can be used to

make projective pronouncements, but these often lack reliability. Van Doorn and Van Vught

(1978) conclude that models cannot simply be seen as specific forecasting techniques.

- FAR


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FAR stands for ‘Field Anomaly Relaxation Method’. The method attempts to develop a

systematic insight in the context in which a forecast is set. It pays attention to the variables

that together form the context of the forecast. From alternative contexts the values for the

various parameters are estimated.

- Cross-impact analysis

Cross-Impact analysis attempts to estimate the possibility of specific events. This is done by

weighing the specific events against certain, dependent or autonomous actions. For example,

‘if A, B or C happens, the probability of D, E and F would change in…’. The analysis allows

an analysis of possible interactions between correlating events and developments.

Van Doorn and Van Vught (1978) highlight that a planning process will unite all of these

types of forecasting in a wider sense. They should therefore not be seen as alternatives of each

other. They often form a coherent unity in the planning process.


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Appendix 3 - The scenario planning process (Schoemaker, 1995)

A description of the process for developing scenarios. An excerpt from:

‘Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking’ by Paul J.H. Schoemaker published in

Sloan Management Review; Winter 1995; 36, 2; ABI/INFORM Global.

1. Define the scope

The first step is to set the time frame and scope of analysis (in terms of products, markers,

geographic areas, and technologies). Time frame can depend on a number of factors: the rate

of technology change, product life cycles, political elections, competitors’ planning horizons,

and so forth. Once you have determined an appropriate time frame, ask what great knowledge

would be of greatest value to the organisation that far down the road. It is useful to look at the

past and think about what you wish you had known then, that you know now.

What have been past sources of uncertainty and volatility? Let’s say you’re developing ten-

year scenarios. Look back over the past ten years at the changes that have occurred in your

department, organisation, industry, region. Country, and even in the world. You should

anticipate a similar amount of change or even more in the next ten years. Ideally, groups (e.g.

the whole management team) will participate in this part of the process. Their unstructured

concerns and anxieties are often good starting points for scenario planning.

2. Identify the major stakeholders

Who will have an interest in these issues? Who will be affected by them? Who could

influence them? Obvious stakeholders include customers, suppliers, competitors, employees,

shareholder, government, and so forth. Identify their current roles, interests, and power

positions, and ask how they have changed over time and why. For example, in the

environmental area, judges, scientists, lawyers, journalists, and regulators are increasingly

powerful stakeholders.

3. Identify basic trends

What political, economical, technological, legal, and industry trends are sure to affect the

issues identified in step one? For example, a company concerned with the future of

environmental issues might identify trends such as increasing environmental regulation,

continuing growth of environmental interest groups, scientific advances in molecular biology,


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and an increasingly liberal judiciary due to a democratic president. Briefly explain each trend,

including how and why it exerts its influence in your organisation. It may be helpful to list

each trend on a chart or so-called influence diagram to identify its impacts on your present

strategy as positive, negative, or uncertain. Everyone participating in the process must agree

that these trends will continue; any trend on which there is a disagreement (within the time

frame) belongs in the next step.

4. Identify key uncertainties

What events, whose outcomes are uncertain, will significantly affect the issues you are

concerned with? Again, consider economic, political, societal, technological, legal, and

industry factors. Will the next U.S. president be a Republican or Democrat? Will a particular

piece of legislation be passed? Will a new technology be developed? What will consumers

value in the future? For each uncertainty, determine possible outcomes (e.g., Republican or

Democrat; legislation passed or not passed; technology developed or not developed; whether

consumers value service or price). Again it’s best to keep these outcomes simple, with a few

possibilities at most.

You may also want to identify relationships among these uncertainties, since not all

combinations may occur. For example, if one certain uncertainty is ‘level of unemployment’

and the other ‘level of inflation’ then the combination of full employment and zero inflation

may be ruled out as implausible. (Later I show how a correlation matrix can help identify

such linkage among all pairs off key uncertainties.)

5. Construct Initial Scenario Themes

Once you identify trends and uncertainties, you have the main ingredients for scenario

construction. A simple approach is to identify extreme worlds by putting all positive elements

in one and all negative in another. (Note that positive or negative is defined here relative to

the current strategy. What seems to be a negative scenario at first may later prove to be one of

innovation and hidden opportunity.) Alternatively, the various strings of possible outcomes

(which jointly define a scenario) can be clustered around high versus low continuity, degree

of prepardness, turmoil, and so on. Another method for finding some initial themes is to

d\select the top two uncertainties and cross them (as illustrated later in the Anglo-American

case). This technique makes the most sense if some uncertainties are clearly mote important

than others.


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6. Check for Consistency and Plausibility

The simple words you have just made are not yet full-fletched scenario, because they

probably have internal inconsistencies or lack a compelling story line. There are at least three

tests of internal consistency, dealing with the trend, the outcome combinations, and the

reactions of major stakeholders. First, are the trends compatible within the chosen time

frame? If not, remove the trends that don’t fit. Second, do the scenarios combine outcomes of

uncertainties that indeed go together? Ads noted above, full employment and zero inflation do

not go together, so eliminate that possible pairing or scenario. Third, are the major

stakeholders (E.G., OPEC) placed in positions they do not like and can change? (For example,

OPEC may not tolerate low oil prices for very long.) If so, your scenario will evolve into

another one. Try to describe this end scenario, which is more stable. The stakeholder test is

especially critical when building macro scenarios involving governments, international

organisations (E.G., the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the United Nations) or

strong interest groups like OPEC. (M. Godet, Scenarios and Strategic Management, London:

Butterworths Scientific, Ltd., 1987)

7. Develop Learning Scenarios

From this process of constructing simple scenarios and checking them for consistency, some

general themes should emerge. The initial scenarios provide future boundaries, but they may

be implausible, inconsistent, or irrelevant. The goal is to identify themes that are statically

relevant and then organise the possible outcomes and trends around them. Although the

trends, by definition, appear in all the scenarios, they can be given more or less weight or

attention in different scenarios.

For example, a company concerned with its future liability for hazardous waste might

construct three scenarios; ‘Superfund II,’ ‘Environmentalist Lose,’ and ‘Compromise.’ The

political trends and key uncertainties may get mote play in ‘Superfund II,’ while legal trends

and the health of the economy may feature mote prominently in the other two scenarios.

Naming the scenarios is also important. A scenario is a story; by capturing its essence in a

title, you make the story easy to follow and remember. At this stage, you have constructed

learning scenarios, which are tools for research and study, rather than for decision making.

The titles and themes are focal points around which to develop and test the scenarios.

8. Identify Research Needs


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At this point, you may need to do further research to flesh out your understanding of

uncertainties and trends. The learning scenarios should help you find your blind spots. For

example, do you really understand how a key stakeholder (say, a regulator or a judge) will

behave in a given scenario? Often, companies now a lot about their own industry but little

beyond the fringes, from which the innovations may come. So you may wish to study new

technologies that are not yet in the mainstream of your industry but may be someday.

Consider the developments in multimedia, where personal computers, telecommunication,

entertainment, databases, and televisions are merging into new products and markets. A

company like Apple Computer, traditionally focussed on making personal computers, must

now master new domains, such as electronic miniaturization (to exploit portability), artificial

intelligence (to make PCs smarter), information highways (to connect) and so on.

9. Develop Quantitative models

After completing additional research, you should re-examine the internal consistencies of the

scenarios and assess whether certain interactions should be formalized via a quantitative

model. For example, Royal Dutch/Shell has developed a model that keeps oil prices, inflation,

GNP growth, taxes, oil inventories, interest rates, and so forth in plausible balances. As

managers imagine different outcomes of key uncertainties, they can use formal models to

keep from straying into plausible scenarios. (Schoemaker and van der Heijden, 1992) The

models can also help to quantify the consequences of various scenarios, say, in terms of price

behaviour, growth rates, market shares, and so on.

10. Evolve Towards Decision Scenarios

Finally, in an iterative process, you must converge towards scenarios that you will eventually

use to test your strategies and generate new ideas. Retrace steps one through eight to see if

learning scenarios (and any quantitative models from step nine) address the real issues facing

your company. Are these the scenarios that you want to give others in the organisation to spur

their creativity or help them appreciate better the up- and downside risks in various strategies?

If yes, you are done. If not, repeat the steps and refocus your scenarios the way an artist

judges the balance and focal point in a painting. Half of this judgement is art, half is science.

How can you determine if your final scenarios are any good? The first criterion is relevance.

To have impact, your scenarios should connect directly with the mental maps and concerns of

the users (E.G., senior executives, middle managers, etc.). Second, the scenarios should be

internally consistent (and be perceived as such) to be effective. Third, they should be


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archetypal. That is, they should describe generically different features rather than variations

on one of them. Fourth, each scenario ideally should describe an equilibrium or a state in

which the system might exist for some length of time, as opposed to being highly transient. It

does an organisation little good to prepare for a possible future that will be quite short lived.

In short, the scenarios should cover a wide range of possibilities and highlight competing

perspectives (within and outside the firm), while focussing on interlinkages and the internal

logic within each feature.


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Appendix 4 - Personal Communication Device



browsing the Internet, email, GPS, voice recognition and security soft- and hardware.

The PCD operates mainly on a online database structure, meaning that all the software,

documents, photographs etcetera are operated from an Internet based storage facility from

where the PCD opens them on the screen. This means that the device operates in an always-

online mode through various wireless networks. This way of accessing personal files on a

mobile device is meant to safeguard personal files when the device is stolen or if it breaks. In

which case, another device, or information kiosk, can then be used to gain access to the files.

In case the always-online network fails, it is also possible to store specific files on the PCD

itself. The PCD automatically synchronizes these files with the network based storage.

The PCD and the files on the PCD are secured by use of various hard- and software solutions.

A biometric scan (finger print, voice recognition or iris scan), allows the user access to his or

her files through the device.

The PCD should not be seen as a new product, the functions it has are already available as

individual products. Looking at the current trend in convergence of several functions within

the mobile phone, it is therefore more likely that it will evolve from the current mobile

phones. The main difference can be found in the underlying database information structure

that will enable the services available on the PCD. Specific uses of the PCD will become clear

in the scenarios.

Mobile Communication Technologies in Tourism Possibilities for the Future

Rob Simons December, 2005 This thesis focuses on the possible future use of mobile communication technologies in tourism. Most people do not realize how fast these technologies are developing (Kurzweil, 2005). This thesis intends to open the eyes and minds of those involved in tourism. Therefore the goal of this thesis is ‘to explore and analyze the future possibilities for mobile communication technologies in the tourism process, providing a range of future scenarios and conclude what their implications are, in order to create awareness of these aspects amongst those involved in tourism.’ Scenario planning as a futurological process allows a high degree of speculative thought, this is why this thesis has chosen to use it to formulate the envisioned future. The steps in the planning process described by Schoemaker (1995) are adapted and function as a structure for the scenarios. The timeframe is ten years and the major stakeholders are the tourists, the tourism sector and the technology sector. The tourists are subdivided into travel with business motives and travel with leisure motives, each with their subdivisions serving as a basis for the scenarios. The tourism sector is divided into five categories following Middleton and Clarke (2001), they provide the basic structure for the formulation of the implications of the scenarios. A collection of opinions and visions from various experts in tourism, technology and other fields is presented, forming the basis of the scenarios. They are divided into four main categories: ‘consumer trends and foresights’; ‘tourism sector trends and foresights’; ‘technological advancements’; and ‘environmental trends and foresights’. Economic and political trends and foresights have been left out of the scope regarding them as a constant stable force in the formulation of the scenarios. Information needs and issues regarding the individual traveller are identified, relating the trends and forecasts to the scenarios. Subsequently the scenarios are presented, featuring the fictional Gates family which consists of various types of travellers. Each scenario features one type of travel and is represented by one of the family members. Implications of the scenarios for the tourists, the tourism sector and the technology sector are presented. In conclusion there is emphasised that the given scenarios are merely possibilities for the future, intended to open the eyes and minds of those involved in tourism. The next step is to envision own future possibilities, to apply scenarios of mobile communication technology to their company or organization, to their product or service, to their sector, to their competitors, to their customers and to their vision. Such an approach will feed creative minds in realizing innovative tourism services in the future. ‘The future is what you make of it, so make it a good one.’

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