Multidecadal trends in aerosol radiative forcing over the ...
M.N. Ward , U. Lall1,2, C. Brown , H.-H. Kwonds.data.jma.go.jp/.../presentation/FEB20-3_IRI.pdf2....
Transcript of M.N. Ward , U. Lall1,2, C. Brown , H.-H. Kwonds.data.jma.go.jp/.../presentation/FEB20-3_IRI.pdf2....
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Best Practices on the Application of Climate Information for
Water Resources Management
M.N. Ward1, U. Lall1,2, C. Brown1, H.-H. Kwon2
1International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, USA
2Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, USA
Open seminar on the applications of climate information in various socio-economic sectors. Tokyo, Tuesday 20th February 2007
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Managing Water Resource Systems• Balance Water Supply and Demand, avoid flood
• Historical rules for resource allocation
• How much, and when should these rules be modified based on new climate technologies
• How do we assess and communicate potential impacts of action & inaction ?
• Background risks for sustainable strategies and infrastructure development
Health
Human Activity
Energy
Climate
Water
Agriculture
New City
Irrigated Farms
Irrigated Farms
Dam 1Dam 2
Dam 3
Electric Grid Well Field
Muddy River
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1. Monitoring and Short-term (several days) projections
2. Seasonal Prediction (next 3-6 months)
3. Merging knowledge on natural multidecadal (e.g. 10-30 years) and global change for water resources management
Management options at different timescales of the available information
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Section 1
Monitoring and Short-term projections
Flood prediction and management(including Mozambique case study)
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Conception of FEWS Flood Model
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FEWS Flood Risk Monitoring System Flow Diagram
Preprocessing
MAP
MAE
Basin
Linkage
Routing Parameters
Soil Parameters
Flood Inundation Mapping
Landsat 7 SPOT
Output / Decision Support System
Data
RFE
PET
Soil
LU/LC
DEM
QPF
Stream Flow Model
Water Balance
Lumped Routing
Dist. Routing
Updating
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Case Study: surface hydrology in Sri Lanka
Potential for enhanced monitoring and prediction of weather-driven component of surface hydrology
New opportunity: Reanalysis weather data
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ECMWF reanalysis weather data drives stream flow simulation for Mahaweli gauge location, Sri Lanka
NASA, Mahaweli River Authority, IRI1979 1994
Black = observedRed = simulated
Flow
Time
(Reanalysis rainfall is bias corrected)
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Eds, Hellmuth et al., 2007. Mozambique case study by Lucio et al.
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Recent climate-related natural disasters in Mozambique
***********
(Lucio et al., 2007)
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Limpopo basin includes Zimbabwe, Botswana andS. Africa
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1. Seasonal forecast recognized increased risk of flooding through the rainy season due to presence of La Nina and other climate aspects (but no methods yet to quantify increased risks)
2. November – National disaster committee meets frequently and produces National Contingency Plan
Mozambique floods, Jan-Feb 2000Aspects of good practice that were already in place
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1. Flood risk analysis for vulnerable areas(see section 3 of lecture)
2. Hydromet monitoring system enhanced
3. Linking monitoring/forecast information to trigger response
4. Consider news media, and communication
Improvements in practice after 2000 Mozambique flood
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Section 2
Bringing Seasonal Prediction Technology into Water Resources Management
Especially in tropical regions, capability exists now to forecast climate patterns 3-6 months into the future
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Forecasting Reservoir Inflow for
Reservoir Operations
Reservoir Operation Model
Reservoir Inflows
NEED AS A PDF OR ENSEMBLE
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Forecasting Water Supply and Demand
General Circulation Model
“Downscaling”Regional Climate Model
Or Statistical Model
Hydrologic Model
Crop Model
Reservoir Operation Model
Economic Model
Regional Climate Predictors
Statistical Model
Reservoir Inflows
NEED AS A PDF OR ENSEMBLE
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Possible ProceduresSeasonal GCM Rainfall Forecast Statistical or Dynamical Downscaling
Daily Weather Sequences
Crop Irrigation Demand
“Climate Predictors”
Empirical StatisticalModel
Reservoir Inflow
CurrentReservoir Volume
Probability that Demand > Supply
Revise Crop Choice or Planted Area based on
Expected Net Value or other criteria
Toolavailable
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Exploring the management of Angat Dam, Philippines using seasonal inflow forecasts(Most value in such low storage to inflow ratio settings)
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Rainfall-Runoff (Oct-Feb) Relation
y = 0.8331x + 27.464R2 = 0.79
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450Rainfall (mm/month)
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w (M
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onth
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Reliable Seasonal Climate Forecasts are possible in many tropical locations
Skill of Oct-Dec rainfall Predictions from a GCM
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Software tool to translate GCM seasonal forecasts into a target variable
Freely available from IRI website
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From General Circulation Model (GCM)to Reservoir Inflow Forecast
The GCM gives a large-scale climate forecast
Then apply a statistical transformation to predict reservoir inflow
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050
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1968 1978 1988 1998Year
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amflo
w (M
CM
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ONDJF-obsONDJF-pred
ρρ((QQpredpred,Q,Qobsobs):0.58):0.58
Translating large-scale forecast output from a GCM intoOct-Feb Reservoir inflow forecasts for reservoir management
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Fig 4Angat Watershed
Angat Reservoir
Hydropower (200 MW)
Bustos Dam
Hydropower (Auxillary) – 48 MW)
Bulacan Irrigation (31000 ha)
Metro Manila (97%)
La Mesa Dam
Manila Bay
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Observed In
flowActualUpdated ForecastOctober ForecastObserved Inflow
Estimating Improved Hydropower Production using Seasonal ForecastsOutput from software illustrated in previous slide
Lall and Arumugam, 2006
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Two Caveats for Changing PracticeBased on Seasonal Prediction
1)Technical: Care with downscaling the prediction signal
2)Societal: Participatory process and often need for policy change
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High mountains can make downscaling information critical and complex
(Zubair et al.)
Seasonal forecasts vary across Sri Lanka
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Modeling small scale seasonal rainfall anomalies across Java in El Nino Years
(Qian et al., 2007)
Sep-Nov
Dec-Feb
Brown = Below normalGreen = Above normal
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Adoption of new allocationstrategies is complex process
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Jan-Dec Water Macro-Allocation Plan --- Developed July-Oct 2002 Ensemble Forecast
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Water allocation matters to many people
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• For resource management strategies including infrastructure development
• For disaster risk management• cf Mozambique example
Section 3 Background Hydroclimatic Risk Information
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Analyses to inform strategies for infrastructure
Knowledge of climate variability is a key factor
Here estimates of storage volume needed by country
Brown and Lall, 2006
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Multi-decadal variability is nowrecognized as a natural partof the climate system
There is growing understanding ofits sources and statistical properties
Motivates finding best ways to incorporate statistics for long-termplanning
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Luterbacher and Xoplaki, 2003
Expression in Regional Climate Fluctuations
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Developing information to support South Florida Water Management District
Kwon and Lall, 2006
Models simulate low frequency statistical properties to guide management strategies
PowerSpectrum
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Context of Global Change
Climate/Environment and Socioeconomic
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Availability of water for agriculture in the coming decades depends not only on changing climate, but also on population, economic development, and technology
Linking Regional Water Supplies and Water Demands in a changing world
(C. Rosenzweig, NASA GISS& Columbia University)
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Luterbacher and Xoplaki, 2003
Expression in Regional Climate Fluctuations
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Annual Oros Reservoir Inflow in m3/s
Projected & Existing Demand
Water Resources Setting – Study in NE Brazil
How to extract the inflow statistics expected for the next 30 years?
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Insurance as a natural tool to better manage climate and
hydroclimatic risk
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Weather / hydrology index insuranceExample for Peru, flood precipitation proxy (y-axis)x-axis is Nino index, introducing predictability to the insurance problem
Khalil et al, 2007
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Insurance could be a natural partner for innovative water resources management based on
probabilistic climate information
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1. Monitoring and Short-term (several days) projections
2. Seasonal Prediction (next 3-6 months)
3. Merging knowledge on natural multidecadal (e.g. 10-30 years) and global change for water resources management
Management options at different timescales of the available information