MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08
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Transcript of MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08
8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08
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Dabur IndiaPlay the Core, not the Store
Mangal Keshav Securities Ltd. 92,9th Floor “A” Wing, Mittal Tower, Nariman Point, Mumbai –400 021
NEUTRALPrice: INR 91
Target Price: INR 99
30 July 2008
Consumer Sector
Initiating Coverage
Shishir ManujTel.: +91-22 4002 [email protected]
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
MANGAL KESHAV
Nuturing wealth, since 1939
Price Performance(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Absolute 15.3 (14.7) (7.5) (11.5)
Rel. to Sensex 9.2 2.7 12.1 (5.1)
Stock DetailsReuters DABU.BO
Bloomberg DABU IN
No.of shares (mn) 865
Face Value (INR) 1
52 Week H/L (INR) 134/72
Market Cap (INR bn) 78
3-mth Daily Avg.Volume (no. shares) 861 ,86 8
Daily Avg. Turnover (USD mn) 1.9
BSE Sensex 14,287
Nifty 4,314
Shareholding Pattern (%)(30 th June’08)
Promoters 70.7
Institutions 21.8
Others 7.5
Source: Capitaline
Source: Capitaline
Source: Capitaline *
Key financials (consolidated)
YE Mar (INR mn) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
Total Income 20,431 23,611 27,129 30,952
Operating profit 3,432 4,037 4,526 5,089
Net Profit 2,751 3,251 3,741 4,266
yoy change (%) 22.3 18.2 15.1 14.0
EPS (INR) 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.9
OPM (%) 16.8 17.1 16.7 16.4
RoE (%) 56.3 59.3 52.2 46.0
RoCE (%) 44.3 47.7 46.7 43.1
P/E (x) 28.5 24.2 21.0 18.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.0 19.6 17.4 15.5
We are initiating coverage on Dabur India with a
Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of INR
99. Despite a strong business portfolio and
excellent management, we believe Dabur will
grow at a slower pace over the next few years.
Core** margins would hold at current levelsdespite inflationary pressure. We expect retailing
losses to stretch beyond management guidance.
Lower inflation, slower retailing expansion and
inorganic growth could be the upside risk to our
target price.
Investment Rationale
Core business portfolio will grow at 13.7% CAGR, slower than in
the recent past. However, such slowdown is accompanied by
broader sectoral and market slowdown.
Core margins are expected to hold at around 17.0% despite
reduced pricing headroom, higher inflation and no incremental
efficiency gains in Balsara. However, retailing losses will dilute
reported OPM in FY09E and FY10E by 50-80bps. We see EPS
growing at 14.5% CAGR over FY08-FY10E period driven by topline
growth.
The retailing initiative is in its teething stage and we see higher
net losses than expected by the management, spread over a longerperiod of four years. Management has guided for cumulative
losses of INR 400mn by FY10E.
The stock is trading at a PER of 18.4x and EV/EBITDA of 15.5x on a
FY10E basis. This implies a 2-year rolling forward PEG of 1.5x.
Our target price of INR 99 is based on 20xFY10E EPS implying a
PEG of 1.3x.
*all numbers in the report refer to consolidated entity, unless stated otherwise.**Core refers to the business, excluding retailing, in the report.
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Dabur India 2 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Income Statement (INR mn)
FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
Total revenues 20,431 23,611 27,129 30,952
% growth 18.6 15.6 14.9 14.1
Cost of Sales 12,185 13,917 16,125 18,544
S G A 4,814 5,657 6,479 7,319
EBITDA 3,432 4,037 4,526 5,089
% growth 18.0 17.6 12.1 12.4
Depreciation 343 364 398 456
EBIT 3,090 3,672 4,128 4,633
Interest 154 168 123 103
Other Income 166 237 319 358
EO Items 93 103 0 0
EBT 3,101 3,741 4,323 4,889
Tax 373 507 584 624
Minority Interest (9) (1) (1) (1)
Reported PAT 2,830 3,339 3,741 4,266
Adj. PAT 2,751 3,251 3,741 4,266
% growth 22.3 18.2 15.1 14.0
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
Summary Financials
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
Balance Sheet (INR mn)
FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
Cash & equivalents 607 766 861 673
Debtors 1,420 1,723 2,046 2,396
Inventory 2,571 3,025 3,725 4,475
Others 1,807 2,225 2,569 2,979
Total Current Assets 6,405 7,739 9,201 10,524
Current Liabilities 4,518 7,321 8,233 8,755
Net Working Capital 1,887 418 969 1,768
Other assets 213 380 338 308
Investments 807 2,037 2,037 2,037
Net Fixed Assets 3,792 4,653 5,627 7,103
Total assets 6,698 7,488 8,970 11,217
Other Liabilities 304 320 320 320
Debt 1,599 992 500 500
Shareholders’ equity 863 864 864 864
Reserves 3,933 5,312 7,286 9,533
Total networth 4,796 6,176 8,150 10,397
Total Liabilities 6,698 7,488 8,970 11,217
Cash Flow (INR mn)
FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
EBT 3,204 3,846 4,325 4,890
Depreciation 290 263 354 421
Tax paid (373) (507) (584) (624)
Chg in Def. Tax Liability 86 (212) 0 0
Net working capital (1,440) 1,628 (454) (988)
Operating cash flow 1,767 5,019 3,641 3,699
Capital expenditure 1,043 (1,124) (1,329) (1,897)
Investments (386) (1,230) 0 0
Investing cash flows 657 (2,355) (1,329) (1,897)
Change in borrowings 556 (607) (492) 0
Change in equity (1,613) (440) 0 0
Other financing activities 131 59 42 29
Dividend paid (1,393) (1,516) (1,767) (2,019)
Financing cash flow (2,319) (2,505) (2,217) (1,990)
Net change in cash 105 159 96 (188)
Closing cash balance 607 766 861 673
Ratio analysis (%)
FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
EBIDTA margin 16.8 17.1 16.7 16.4
Net profit margin 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.8
Return on equity 56.3 59.3 52.2 46.0
ROCE 44.3 47.7 46.7 43.1
Inventory (days) 87 91 92 93
Payable (days) 68 81 90 88
Receivables (days) 18 23 23 24
Net debt to equity (%) 33.3 16.1 6.1 4.8
Valuation parameters FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
Dil. No. of Shares (mn) 863 864 864 864
Diluted EPS (INR) 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.9
P/E (x) 28.5 24.2 21.0 18.4
P/BV (x) 16.4 12.7 9.6 7.6
EV/ EBIDTA (x) 23.0 19.6 17.4 15.5
EV/Sales(x) 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.6
Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.6
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
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Dabur India 3 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Core growth to slow down
Overview
Excluding retailing, net sales expected to grow slower
at 13.7% CAGR over FY08-FY10E, versus 15% (excluding
Balsara) in FY05-FY08
Strong growth across key categories in FY05-FY08, but
lagging FMCG peers over FY08-FY10E
Expect mixed impact of consumer downtrading
Acceleration of Consumer Healthcare (CHD) growth,
new products and International Business (IBD) could
beat our growth expectations
We expect Dabur's core revenue growth to slowdown to
13.7% CAGR over FY08-FY10E period, as
growth returns towards medium-term trend
growth in a slowing economy,
and enhanced competition constrains market share
growth.
Acquisition of Balsara added 475bps to the FY05-FY08 sales
CAGR: Dabur reported 19.8% sales CAGR as compared to
16.9% average growth reported by the 'big five' (HUL, ITC,
Nestle, Asian Paints, Colgate) of the FMCG sector in theFY05-FY08 period. Reported growth is inflated due to
Balsara acquisition, which contributed 475bps to the core
sales CAGR for FY05-FY08. Balsara was acquired by Dabur
towards the end of FY05, and has contributed around 10%-
12% of the consolidated sales in the last couple of years.
Strong performance in few categories: We like the fact that
Dabur has more legs to defend growth during a slowdown
as compared to single-category companies. Most of Dabur's
core brands have gained significant strength in the last few
years owing to the clearer brand architecture, adequatemarketing support, and dynamic management of the
categories. We have also seen the company gaining market
share and critical size in new categories like toothpaste and
shampoos.
Growth to continue in low-teens
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates, *excluding retailing
FY07- Balsara merged with DIL; FY08- Dabur Foods merged with DIL
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
F Y 0 5
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F Y 1 0 E
(%)
Standalone Consolidated*
Slow down to impact sectoral growth
We believe that consumer demand growth will decelerate
in the medium-term as economic growth slows down and
inflation hurts purchasing power and encourages
downtrading. Dabur was able to capture the strong growthrevival in the sector beginning 2005. However, Dabur's
relatively mature segments like hair oil, chywanprash, etc.
will find it difficult to maintain the recent momentum if the
overall demand falters and there is some downtrading.
Dabur to lag sector growth
We do not see Dabur's growth slowdown as a standalone
case. The consumer sector is expected to slowdown over
FY08-FY10E period. However, we expect to see average sales
CAGR of the 'big five' declining by only 60bps as compared
with Dabur's 200bps decline in this period.
Market Share (%) Growth (%)
(FY06-FY08)
Categories FY06 FY07 FY08 May 08 Category Dabur*
Hair Oil 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.8 17.2 13.0Toothpaste 7.0 7.9 9.4 9.6 12.3 20.6**
Shampoo 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.7 13.3 28.0
Chywanprash 57.5 59.9 60.0 59.0 8.9 9.4
Growth Performance: Beating the market
Source: AC Nielsen, Mangal Keshav Research, * as reported by Company,** only Dabur Red Toothpaste
Topline growth decelerating
Companies FY05-FY08 FY08-FY10E Change (bps)
Asian Paints 19.6 18.7 (90)
Colgate 15.2 13.2 (200)
HUL# 11.4 17.3 590
ITC 22.1 16.1 (600)
Nestle# 16.3 16.1 (20)
Average 16.9 16.3 (60)Dabur 15.0* 13.0** (200)
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates; *Core, ** excluding retailing, #December year ending
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Dabur India 4 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Downtrading- A mixed Blessing: Downtrading and limited
pricing power will hurt most categories like hair oil,
shampoos and oral care. We have seen that in the last
consumer slowdown, even relatively less penetrated
categories like oral care and shampoos found it tough
growing. Together, these mature consumer categories
contribute c.62% of the domestic sales of Dabur.
Mixed impact of downtrading on Dabur
Category Gain (+)/ Comments
Loss (-)
Hair Oil - Unbranded and loose hair oils to gain
Shampoos + Brands at a discount to the market leaders
Chywanprash - Leadership with premium pricing could
hurt
Oral Care + Benefiting from the popular pricing and
strong brands
Juices - Nectars and still drinks could gain share
Source: Mangal Keshav Research
Increasing competition across categories: Besides the
dominance of relatively mature (read slower growing)
categories, we are also seeing a significant growth in
competition in key categories in the past few years. Small
niche and regional players have gained strength benefiting
from the rapid growth in the sector, media expansion and
growth of modern retailing. Dabur is facing strong players
in categories like shampoos, toothpastes, hair oil, fruit juices,
home care, while multiple players are expanding theirpresence in digestives, skin care, etc. We see such growth in
competition hurting particularly more during slowdown,
when brand premium gets squeezed.
What would drive growth?
New product launches: We believe that new product
development under various categories, especially, oral care,
hair care and home care, should add incremental growth.
We have seen the recently launched Vatika Black Shine Shampoo
add 0.5 pp to Dabur's shampoo market share. While the
medium term sustainability of the incremental market
share will have to seen, we see enough opportunity for the
company to add brands and brand extensions. A new
brand, "Dazzl", has been launched 12 years after Real was
launched. We would await the performance of this brand;
however, we find the addressable opportunity quite sizeable
and growing at a brisk pace.
We could see some failures too, as we have seen in the case
of Vatika soaps and Coolers range of fruit drink, where Daburhas not met with desired success. The company has almost
withdrawn these products.
Acceleration in CHD growth: The division has seen a sharp
slowdown in the past two years after brisk pace of growth
in the previous years before that.
CHD- Expected to come back strongly
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
Management has not met its growth objective for the
segment in the last two years. It attributed the slowdown
to corrections in Supply Chain management, higher base
effect in a mature category, etc. It is now focusing on
strengthening its new product introduction in the OTC
segment and improving visibility and prescriptions
generation in the ethicals portfolio. We have started to see
improved performance in the last couple of quarters. The
company reported a strong 24.5% growth in Q1FY09. We
expect the segment to report 16.0% CAGR in the FY08-
FY10E period, helped partially by the low base.
International and Foods- the biggest growth driver: IBD
(including exports) and Foods, which contributed 27% to
net sales in FY08 have been the biggest growth driver for
Dabur in the past two years. IBD grew at 39.5% in Q1FY09,
driven by strong performance in Egypt and African
markets. These segments have contributed almost 35% of
the incremental sales in the last two years.
IBD and Foods- Higher contribution to sales
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
20
24
28
32
36
40
F Y 0 6
F Y 0 7
F Y 0 8
F Y 0 9 E
F Y 1 0 E
(%)
Incremental Total
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
F Y 0 5
F Y 0 6
F Y 0 7
F Y 0 8
F Y 0 9 E
F Y 1 0 E
(INR mn)
-5
5
15
25
35
45(%)
Sales Sales Growth (RHS)
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Dabur India 5 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Despite the base impact, additional focus on foods extension
and exploitation of foreign markets like Egypt, Middle East,
etc. would maintain momentum in the medium-term. IBD
growth could, however, be hurt by adverse rupee movement
as seen in Q1FY09. We expect the management to drive
portfolio expansion in Foods to reduce dependence on just
juices, as juices are facing higher competitive pressure andsupply chain issues.
Core OPM to stabilise at 17.0%
Overview
Core OPM expected to stabilize around 17.0%, core
operating profits to grow at 14% CAGR over FY08-
FY10E.
Gross margins to decline 40bps in FY09E to 53% inFY09E and FY10E. Foods margin expected to improve.
Marketing spend to remain high on account of
aggressive new product launches
We expect core operating margins to stabilize at current
levels of c.17.0% for the next couple of years, as gross margins
come under pressure along with higher marketing spend
needed to defend growth. Dabur's operating margin has
expanded 200bps over FY05 levels to 17.1% in FY08 led by
improvement in gross margins. Core operating profits willreport 14.0% CAGR over FY08-FY10E, while reported
operating profits will grow at 12.3%.
Moving production to backward areas helping margins:
Dabur's gross margin has expanded 135bps in the FY05-
FY08 period driven primarily by lower effective excise duties
and better material management. Increase in insourcing
from backward areas with fiscal benefits has brought down
effective excise duties. Effective excise duty has declined
155bps in FY05-FY08 period.
Declining effective excise tax helped margins
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
F Y 0 4
F Y 0 5
F Y 0 6
F Y 0 7
F Y 0 8
(%)
As a percentage of gross sales, material cost has improved
60 bps in the FY05-FY08 period. Dabur has effectively used
long only futures positions and offsetting derivatives to
contain inflation close to zero inflation environment where
possible.
Gross margins to decline 40bps in FY09E
We are building in 40bps lower gross margin for FY09E
and FY10E compared with FY08, owing to severe pressure
on few input materials including packing, molasses, copra,
etc. The impact of inflation is higher in international markets,
which have seen sharp decline in gross margins for Q1FY09.
Dabur has reduced its forward buying due to uncertain
outlook on key materials and some decline in crude oil prices
in the last one month.
Higher packaging cost: We highlight that gross margin
improvement in the past has been despite a jump in
packaging cost as % of net sales, which has risen from 12.6%
in FY05 to 16.4% in FY08. However, the impact of significant
increase in crude oil price on packaging cost, single largest
input material for Dabur, is expected to hit gross margins.
Management has indicated that all packing materials,
including glass bottles, PET, laminates, etc. have seen
significant inflation in the year.
Operating margins to hover in a narrow band
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
F Y 0 5
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F Y 1 0 E
(%)
52.0
52.4
52.8
53.2
53.6(%)
Core OPM Gross Margin (RHS)
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Dabur India 6 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Packing cost - Critical to Margins
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research
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as % of Net Sales as % of material cost
Pricing power to reduce: Most domestic FMCG firms have
been taking price hikes in line with underlying inflation in
the last two years. The headroom for such price hikes hasgot significantly squeezed as inflation is beginning to hurt
consumption. Inflation has been even stronger in the
international markets, where gross margins have declined
almost 400bps in Q1FY09.
This pressure would be offset by relatively less inflation in
juices and other raw materials as well as 7%-8% weighted
average price hike that the company intends to take in the
domestic markets through the year. In Q1, overall price hike
was to the tune of 3.5%.We expect Dabur's brand equity to
give it pricing power over its competition, but could still be
constrained by slowing demand.
Marketing spend to remain high: Margin pressure not
withstanding, we see higher adspend/net sales of 13.0% for
both FY09E and FY10E to support higher level of planned
marketing activities. Dabur is looking to roll out nationally
Dazzl , continue supporting new extensions in oral care and
shampoos and the new drinks brand to be launched in
Q3FY09 (new brand structure focusing on 'Real' umbrella) in
FY09E. Besides, there have been renovations in a significant
portion of its portfolio, which entails supply chain issues
as well as lumped media activities. The company will also
have to support the CHD revival, which has just started to
come back on track.
Overview
Retailing sales expected to grow from INR 90mn to INR
1.0bn between FY09E and FY11E, contributing 3.0% to
overall sales by FY11E.
Cumulative net losses to stand at INR 495mn, with 50-80bps adverse impact on OPM. Management guidance
of INR400 mn losses over three years
Financial ratios to be marginally impacted due to
investments in retailing segment.
EPS growth to slowdown to 14.5% over FY08-FY10E
Dabur's retailing initiative, under the new brand 'new u' ,
has seen seven stores opening in the last few months. We
expect the segment to contribute around 3% of turnover byFY11E, as revenue grows from INR 90mn in FY09E to INR
1.0bn in FY11E. Current stores are around 1,600sq.ft on an
average with planned store size going to be smaller than
1,000sq.ft. It would take the management a year with
around 10-15 stores in operation to get a sense of the
profitability, location-mix, merchandise-mix, etc.
Management has guided that most of the store roll-out
would be back-ended towards FY11E. We believe that the
likelihood of declining rental cost alongwith inexperience
in retailing will make the management go slow.
Net losses spread out longer in retailing
Management has budgeted for accumulated net losses of
INR400mn between FY08-FY10E and breakeven in FY11E.
We have factored in accumulated net losses of INR 495mn,
with a breakeven only after FY11E, factoring in slower store
area addition and lower operating margins. The segment
reported operating losses of INR 49mn in Q1FY09. On a net
basis, the stores lost INR 20mn for the quarter. Management
has guided that there would be no benefits of deferred tax
on retailing losses immediately.
Retailing- Diluting financials
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Dabur India 7 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Operating losses in retailing business will pull down
Dabur's operating margins by 50bps in FY09E and 80bps in
FY10E.
Retailing losses: Management vs. our estimates
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
Dilutive impact on return ratios: Dabur will invest INR1.4bn
in equity over three years for its retailing venture. We see
the total investment in the segment going up from around
INR200mn in FY08 to INR1.6bn, with a FY11E D/E of 0.15for a total store area of 0.1mn sq.ft. Investments in retailing
business will adversely impact RoCE by 160-190bps in
FY09E and FY10E. On the RoE front, we expect dilution of
180bps and 210bps in FY09E and FY10E, respectively.
EPS CAGR slowing to 14.5% for FY08-FY10E
We estimate the earnings growth to slowdown to 14.5%
over FY08-FY10E from 20.2% in FY06-FY08 period. We
would like to highlight that estimated growth of the core
earnings (excluding retailing) for the same period would bea little higher at 15.7% with retailing loss per share at around
INR 0.15 in FY09E and INR 0.2 in FY10E. We estimate the
INR mn FY08 FY09E FY10E
Net Sales
Core 23,611 27,039 30,521
Retailing 0 90 431
Overall 23,611 27,129 30,952
Operating Profits
Core 4,108 4,643 5,248
Retailing (71) (116) (159)
Overall 4,037 4,526 5,089
Operating margin (%)
Core 17.4 17.2 17.2
Retailing NA (129.3) (36.9)
Overall 17.1 16.7 16.4
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
Retailing losses pulling down operating margins
company to report EPS of INR 4.3 and INR 4.9 in FY09E and
FY10E, respectively.
Lower than consensus growth estimates: Our earnings
estimates are lower compared with the street consensus
by around 5%-7%. The consensus EPS CAGR is 17% over
FY08-FY10E period, as compared to our 14.5%. The difference,
we feel, could be attributed to higher retailing losses and
lower gross margin that we expect.
We rate the stock Neutral
Target price of INR 99: Dabur is currently trading at a PER
of 18.4x and EV/EBITDA of 15.5x on a FY10E basis. On a 1-
year rolling forward basis, it is trading at a PER of 19.8x
and EV/EBITDA of 16.4x. The stock has recently moved
below its two-year rolling forward average PEG (2-year
forward) of 1.9x and is currently trading at 1.5x. We believe
that multiples could compress a little further from current
levels. Using a PER of 20x FY10E EPS, we arrive at our target
price of INR 99 to be achieved over a 12-month period. This
implies a rolling PEG of 1.3x. We are not using sum-of the-
parts valuation for the core and retailing business, as the
retailing business is quite nascent. The stock has a FY09E
dividend yield of 2.3%, little lower than its FMCG peers.
Multiple compression justified for the current outlook:
Valuation multiples are lower than those commanded by
the stock until recently, but quite in line with their 5-year
averages. We believe that the recent compression in
valuation multiple can be justified by the expected impactof retailing business (on capital efficiency and earnings
growth), slower core earnings growth and decline in
shareholder spread. The stock's premium over Sensex at
around 40% is in line with that witnessed in the last two
years.
(200)
(160)
(120)
(80)
(40)
0 F Y 0 8
F Y 0 9 E
F Y 1 0 E
F Y 1 1 E
(INR mn)
Management Mangal Keshav
Lagging consensus estimates
Sales (INR bn) EPS (INR)
FY09E FY10E FY09E FY10E
Mangal Keshav 27.1 30.9 4.3 4.9
Consensus 28.3 33.1 4.5 5.3
Difference (%) (4.1) (6.5) (4.7) (7.3)
Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
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Dabur India 8 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Relative Valuation- Looks a little costly on peer comparison
Companies Price (INR) 2-yr EPS EV/EBITDA (x) ROCE ROE Div
CAGR (%) (%) (%) Yield(%)
FY08-FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY08 FY09E
Asian Paints 1,150 18.0 26.3 22.0 18.9 16.8 14.0 12.0 34.4 40.4 1.7
Colgate 372 15.7 23.4 19.5 17.5 21.1 18.3 16.2 108.9 97.4 3.9
Dabur 9 0 14.4 23.8 20.7 18.2 19.2 17.0 15.2 48.6 53.4 1.9
Hindustan Lever 220 19.2 28.8 23.3 20.3 22.3 18.5 15.9 78.8 117.1 3.3
ITC 190 13.4 22.6 20.3 17.6 15.0 13.3 11.2 26.0 25.6 2.0
Nestle 1,594 19.1 36.2 29.0 25.5 21.9 18.0 15.9 97.3 101.5 2.6
Average 16.6 26.9 22.5 19.7 19.4 16.5 14.4 65.6 72.6 2.6
Source: Company, Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
PEG dipping below the rolling average
Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
Stock performing in line with Sensex
Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research
Shareholder spread (RoE-CoE ) to decline
Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
(%)
Spread RoE CoE
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
J u l - 0 3
M a r - 0 4
N
o v - 0 4
J u l - 0 5
M a r - 0 6
N
o v - 0 6
J u l - 0 7
M a r - 0 8
(x)
Ro lling PEG 2-y r Ave rage
p
PER: Moving down into lower bands
Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
J u l - 0 7
S e p - 0 7
N o v - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
M a r - 0 8
M a y - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
Dabur (Rebased) Sensex (Rebased)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
J a n - 0 1
J a n - 0 2
J a n - 0 3
J a n - 0 4
J a n - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
(INR)28x
22x
16x
10x
P/E (x)
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Dabur India 9 30 JULY 200 8
Mangal Keshav Securities
Risk
Lower than expected losses in the retailing business :
We believe that the street is focusing on the retailing
initiative disproportionate to its contribution to either
topline or bottomline. We have seen most retailing
companies in the last 12 months adding space at a
slower pace that their historical averages. Likelihood
of falling rentals and real estate prices, better
availability of space and, in some cases, access to capital
could be driving a considered expansion currently. In
case the pace of retailing expansion changes, there could
be some impact on earnings.
Inorganic acquisition: We believe in the entire
consumer space, Dabur has best used acquisition as a
growth lever. The acquisition of Balsara not only added
more growth categories to its portfolio, but also leftsignificant synergies on the table to be leveraged.
Balsara’s performance since it’s acquisition has been
quite exemplary, and hence, any further acquisition
could be a positive trigger.
Abatement in inflationary environment: The key
assumption that has led to slower earnings growth
expectation for Dabur is the current inflationary
environment. Any let up in commodity prices,
especially crude derivatives, could be margin and
earnings positive.
About the Company
Dabur India Ltd. is India's leading household and personal
products company with a strong association with
Ayurveda. The company has expanded its product portfolio
in the last few years moving beyond the core proposition of
Ayurveda to more mainstream platforms in personal care,
foods, household care in both India as well as outside India.
While it organically entered new categories like shampoos,
soaps, surface cleaners, etc. it acquired Balsara in 2005 to
strengthen its presence in toothpastes and home care
products like mosquito coils and repellants, etc. The
company has set a strategic objective to double its FY07
turnover by FY11E. The promoters, who hold 71% stake in
the company, have diluted their role in the management of
the company as career professionals have been managing
the company quite well over the past 5-6 years.
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