MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

10
Dabur India Play the Core, not the  Store Mangal Keshav Securities Ltd. 92,9 th Floor “A” Wing, Mittal Tower, Nariman Point, Mumbai –400 021 NEUTRAL Price: INR 91 Target Price: INR 99 30 July 2008 Consumer Sector Initiating Coverage Shishir Manuj Tel.: +91-22 4002 5508 [email protected] Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates MANGAL KESHAV Nuturing wealth, since 1939 Price Performance (%) 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 2 M Absol ute 1 5. 3 ( 1 4 . 7 ) ( 7. 5) ( 1 1 . 5 ) Rel. to Sensex 9 .2 2.7 12 .1 (5.1) Stock Details Reuters DABU. BO Bloombe rg DABU IN No.of shares (mn) 8 6 5 Face Value (INR) 1 52 Week H/L (INR) 1 3 4 / 7 2 Market Cap (INR bn) 7 8 3-mth Daily Avg.Volume (no. shares) 8 61,8 68 Daily Avg. Turnover (USD mn) 1 . 9 BSE Se nse x 14 , 2 8 7 Nifty 4, 3 1 4 Shareholding Pattern (%) (30 th June’08) Promot ers 70 . 7 Institutions 21 . 8 Others 7. 5 Source: Capitaline Source: Capitaline Source: Capitaline * Key financials (consolidated) YE Mar (INR mn) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E Total Income 2 0, 431 23, 611 2 7,129 30 , 9 52 Operating profit 3, 4 3 2 4, 03 7 4 , 5 26 5 , 0 89 Net Profit 2, 7 5 1 3, 25 1 3 , 7 41 4 , 2 66  yoy change (%) 22 . 3 18. 2 15.1 14.0 EPS (INR) 3 . 2 3 . 8 4.3 4 . 9 OPM (%) 16.8 17 .1 16.7 1 6 .4 RoE (%) 56 . 3 59 . 3 5 2 . 2 4 6 . 0 RoCE (%) 44 . 3 47.7 4 6.7 4 3.1 P/E (x) 28.5 24 . 2 2 1 . 0 18.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 23 . 0 19.6 17. 4 15.5 We are initiating coverage on Dabur India with a Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of INR 99. Despite a strong business portfolio and excellent management, we believe Dabur will grow at a slower pace over the next few years. Core** margins would hold at current levels despite inflationary pressure. We expect retailing losses to stretch beyond management guidance. Lower inflation, slower retailing expansion and inorganic growth could be the upside risk to our target price. Investment Rationale Core business portfolio will grow at 13.7% CAGR, slower than in the recent past. However, such slowdown is accompanied by  broader sectoral and market slowdown. Core margins are expected to hold at around 17.0% despite reduced pricing headroom, higher inflation and no incremental efficiency gains in Balsara. However, retailing losses will dilute reported OPM in FY09E and FY10E by 50-80bps. We see EPS growing at 14.5% CAGR over FY08-FY1 0E period driven by topline growth. The retailing initiative is in its teething stage and we see higher net losses than expected by the manag ement, spread over a longer period of four years. Management has guided for cumulative losses of INR 400mn by FY10E. The stock is trading at a PER of 18.4x and EV/EBITDA of 15.5x on a FY10E basis. This implies a 2-year rolling forward PEG of 1.5x. Our target price of INR 99 is based on 20xFY10E EPS implying a PEG of 1.3x. *all numbers in the report refer to consolidated entity, unless stated otherwise. **Core refers to the business, excluding retailing, in the report.

Transcript of MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

Page 1: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 1/10

Dabur IndiaPlay the Core, not the  Store

Mangal Keshav Securities Ltd. 92,9th Floor “A” Wing, Mittal Tower, Nariman Point, Mumbai –400 021

NEUTRALPrice: INR 91

Target Price: INR 99

30 July 2008

Consumer Sector

Initiating Coverage

Shishir ManujTel.: +91-22 4002 [email protected]

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

MANGAL KESHAV

Nuturing wealth, since 1939

Price Performance(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

Absolute 15.3 (14.7) (7.5) (11.5)

Rel. to Sensex 9.2 2.7 12.1 (5.1)

Stock DetailsReuters DABU.BO

Bloomberg DABU IN

No.of shares (mn) 865

Face Value (INR) 1

52 Week H/L (INR) 134/72

Market Cap (INR bn) 78

3-mth Daily Avg.Volume (no. shares) 861 ,86 8

Daily Avg. Turnover (USD mn) 1.9

BSE Sensex 14,287

Nifty 4,314

Shareholding Pattern (%)(30 th June’08)

Promoters 70.7

Institutions 21.8

Others 7.5

Source: Capitaline

Source: Capitaline

Source: Capitaline *

Key financials (consolidated)

YE Mar (INR mn) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E

Total Income 20,431 23,611 27,129 30,952

Operating profit 3,432 4,037 4,526 5,089

Net Profit 2,751 3,251 3,741 4,266

 yoy change (%) 22.3 18.2 15.1 14.0

EPS (INR) 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.9

OPM (%) 16.8 17.1 16.7 16.4

RoE (%) 56.3 59.3 52.2 46.0

RoCE (%) 44.3 47.7 46.7 43.1

P/E (x) 28.5 24.2 21.0 18.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 23.0 19.6 17.4 15.5

We are initiating coverage on Dabur India with a

Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of INR

99. Despite a strong business portfolio and

excellent management, we believe Dabur will

grow at a slower pace over the next few years.

Core** margins would hold at current levelsdespite inflationary pressure. We expect retailing

losses to stretch beyond management guidance.

Lower inflation, slower retailing expansion and

inorganic growth could be the upside risk to our

target price.

Investment Rationale

Core business portfolio will grow at 13.7% CAGR, slower than in

the recent past. However, such slowdown is accompanied by

 broader sectoral and market slowdown.

Core margins are expected to hold at around 17.0% despite

reduced pricing headroom, higher inflation and no incremental

efficiency gains in Balsara. However, retailing losses will dilute

reported OPM in FY09E and FY10E by 50-80bps. We see EPS

growing at 14.5% CAGR over FY08-FY10E period driven by topline

growth.

The retailing initiative is in its teething stage and we see higher

net losses than expected by the management, spread over a longerperiod of four years. Management has guided for cumulative

losses of INR 400mn by FY10E.

The stock is trading at a PER of 18.4x and EV/EBITDA of 15.5x on a

FY10E basis. This implies a 2-year rolling forward PEG of 1.5x.

Our target price of INR 99 is based on 20xFY10E EPS implying a

PEG of 1.3x.

*all numbers in the report refer to consolidated entity, unless stated otherwise.**Core refers to the business, excluding retailing, in the report.

Page 2: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 2/10

Dabur India 2 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Income Statement (INR mn)

FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E

Total revenues 20,431 23,611 27,129 30,952

% growth 18.6 15.6 14.9 14.1

Cost of Sales 12,185 13,917 16,125 18,544

S G A 4,814 5,657 6,479 7,319

EBITDA 3,432 4,037 4,526 5,089

% growth 18.0 17.6 12.1 12.4

Depreciation 343 364 398 456

EBIT 3,090 3,672 4,128 4,633

Interest 154 168 123 103

Other Income 166 237 319 358

EO Items 93 103 0 0

EBT 3,101 3,741 4,323 4,889

Tax 373 507 584 624

Minority Interest (9) (1) (1) (1)

Reported PAT 2,830 3,339 3,741 4,266

Adj. PAT 2,751 3,251 3,741 4,266

% growth 22.3 18.2 15.1 14.0

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Summary Financials

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Balance Sheet (INR mn)

FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E

Cash & equivalents 607 766 861 673

Debtors 1,420 1,723 2,046 2,396

Inventory 2,571 3,025 3,725 4,475

Others 1,807 2,225 2,569 2,979

Total Current Assets 6,405 7,739 9,201 10,524

Current Liabilities 4,518 7,321 8,233 8,755

Net Working Capital 1,887 418 969 1,768

Other assets 213 380 338 308

Investments 807 2,037 2,037 2,037

Net Fixed Assets 3,792 4,653 5,627 7,103

Total assets 6,698 7,488 8,970 11,217

Other Liabilities 304 320 320 320

Debt 1,599 992 500 500

Shareholders’ equity 863 864 864 864

Reserves 3,933 5,312 7,286 9,533

Total networth 4,796 6,176 8,150 10,397

Total Liabilities 6,698 7,488 8,970 11,217

Cash Flow (INR mn)

FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E

EBT 3,204 3,846 4,325 4,890

Depreciation 290 263 354 421

Tax paid (373) (507) (584) (624)

Chg in Def. Tax Liability 86 (212) 0 0

Net working capital (1,440) 1,628 (454) (988)

Operating cash flow 1,767 5,019 3,641 3,699

Capital expenditure 1,043 (1,124) (1,329) (1,897)

Investments (386) (1,230) 0 0

Investing cash flows 657 (2,355) (1,329) (1,897)

Change in borrowings 556 (607) (492) 0

Change in equity (1,613) (440) 0 0

Other financing activities 131 59 42 29

Dividend paid (1,393) (1,516) (1,767) (2,019)

Financing cash flow (2,319) (2,505) (2,217) (1,990)

Net change in cash 105 159 96 (188)

Closing cash balance 607 766 861 673

Ratio analysis (%)

FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E

EBIDTA margin 16.8 17.1 16.7 16.4

Net profit margin 13.5 13.8 13.8 13.8

Return on equity 56.3 59.3 52.2 46.0

ROCE 44.3 47.7 46.7 43.1

Inventory (days) 87 91 92 93

Payable (days) 68 81 90 88

Receivables (days) 18 23 23 24

Net debt to equity (%) 33.3 16.1 6.1 4.8

Valuation parameters FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E

Dil. No. of Shares (mn) 863 864 864 864

Diluted EPS (INR) 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.9

P/E (x) 28.5 24.2 21.0 18.4

P/BV (x) 16.4 12.7 9.6 7.6

EV/ EBIDTA (x) 23.0 19.6 17.4 15.5

EV/Sales(x) 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.6

Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.6

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Page 3: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 3/10

Dabur India 3 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Core growth to slow down

Overview

Excluding retailing, net sales expected to grow slower

at 13.7% CAGR over FY08-FY10E, versus 15% (excluding

Balsara) in FY05-FY08

Strong growth across key categories in FY05-FY08, but

lagging FMCG peers over FY08-FY10E

Expect mixed impact of consumer downtrading

Acceleration of Consumer Healthcare (CHD) growth,

new products and International Business (IBD) could

 beat our growth expectations

We expect Dabur's core revenue growth to slowdown to

13.7% CAGR over FY08-FY10E period, as

growth returns towards medium-term trend

growth in a slowing economy,

and enhanced competition constrains market share

growth.

Acquisition of Balsara added 475bps to the FY05-FY08 sales

CAGR: Dabur reported 19.8% sales CAGR as compared to

16.9% average growth reported by the 'big five' (HUL, ITC,

Nestle, Asian Paints, Colgate) of the FMCG sector in theFY05-FY08 period. Reported growth is inflated due to

Balsara acquisition, which contributed 475bps to the core

sales CAGR for FY05-FY08. Balsara was acquired by Dabur

towards the end of FY05, and has contributed around 10%-

12% of the consolidated sales in the last couple of years.

Strong performance in few categories: We like the fact that

Dabur has more legs to defend growth during a slowdown

as compared to single-category companies. Most of Dabur's

core brands have gained significant strength in the last few

years owing to the clearer brand architecture, adequatemarketing support, and dynamic management of the

categories. We have also seen the company gaining market

share and critical size in new categories like toothpaste and

shampoos.

Growth to continue in low-teens

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates, *excluding retailing

FY07- Balsara merged with DIL; FY08- Dabur Foods merged with DIL

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

    F    Y    0    5

    F    Y    0    6

    F    Y    0    7

    F    Y    0    8

    F    Y    0    9    E

    F    Y    1    0    E

(%)

Standalone Consolidated*

Slow down to impact sectoral growth

We believe that consumer demand growth will decelerate

in the medium-term as economic growth slows down and

inflation hurts purchasing power and encourages

downtrading. Dabur was able to capture the strong growthrevival in the sector beginning 2005. However, Dabur's

relatively mature segments like hair oil, chywanprash, etc.

will find it difficult to maintain the recent momentum if the

overall demand falters and there is some downtrading.

Dabur to lag sector growth

We do not see Dabur's growth slowdown as a standalone

case. The consumer sector is expected to slowdown over

FY08-FY10E period. However, we expect to see average sales

CAGR of the 'big five' declining by only 60bps as compared

with Dabur's 200bps decline in this period.

Market Share (%) Growth (%)

(FY06-FY08)

Categories FY06 FY07 FY08 May 08 Category Dabur*

Hair Oil 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.8 17.2 13.0Toothpaste 7.0 7.9 9.4 9.6 12.3 20.6**

Shampoo 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.7 13.3 28.0

Chywanprash 57.5 59.9 60.0 59.0 8.9 9.4

Growth Performance: Beating the market

Source: AC Nielsen, Mangal Keshav Research, * as reported by Company,** only Dabur Red Toothpaste

Topline growth decelerating

Companies FY05-FY08 FY08-FY10E Change (bps)

Asian Paints 19.6 18.7 (90)

Colgate 15.2 13.2 (200)

HUL# 11.4 17.3 590

ITC 22.1 16.1 (600)

Nestle# 16.3 16.1 (20)

Average 16.9 16.3 (60)Dabur 15.0* 13.0** (200)

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates; *Core, ** excluding retailing, #December year ending

Page 4: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 4/10

Dabur India 4 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Downtrading- A mixed Blessing: Downtrading and limited

pricing power will hurt most categories like hair oil,

shampoos and oral care. We have seen that in the last

consumer slowdown, even relatively less penetrated

categories like oral care and shampoos found it tough

growing. Together, these mature consumer categories

contribute c.62% of the domestic sales of Dabur.

Mixed impact of downtrading on Dabur

Category Gain (+)/ Comments

Loss (-)

Hair Oil - Unbranded and loose hair oils to gain

Shampoos + Brands at a discount to the market leaders

Chywanprash - Leadership with premium pricing could

hurt

Oral Care + Benefiting from the popular pricing and

strong brands

 Juices - Nectars and still drinks could gain share

Source: Mangal Keshav Research

Increasing competition across categories: Besides the

dominance of relatively mature (read slower growing)

categories, we are also seeing a significant growth in

competition in key categories in the past few years. Small

niche and regional players have gained strength benefiting

from the rapid growth in the sector, media expansion and

growth of modern retailing. Dabur is facing strong players

in categories like shampoos, toothpastes, hair oil, fruit juices,

home care, while multiple players are expanding theirpresence in digestives, skin care, etc. We see such growth in

competition hurting particularly more during slowdown,

when brand premium gets squeezed.

What would drive growth?

New product launches: We believe that new product

development under various categories, especially, oral care,

hair care and home care, should add incremental growth.

We have seen the recently launched Vatika Black Shine Shampoo

add 0.5 pp to Dabur's shampoo market share. While the

medium term sustainability of the incremental market

share will have to seen, we see enough opportunity for the

company to add brands and brand extensions. A new

 brand, "Dazzl", has been launched 12 years after Real was

launched. We would await the performance of this brand;

however, we find the addressable opportunity quite sizeable

and growing at a brisk pace.

We could see some failures too, as we have seen in the case

of Vatika soaps and Coolers range of fruit drink, where Daburhas not met with desired success. The company has almost

withdrawn these products.

Acceleration in CHD growth: The division has seen a sharp

slowdown in the past two years after brisk pace of growth

in the previous years before that.

CHD- Expected to come back strongly

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Management has not met its growth objective for the

segment in the last two years. It attributed the slowdown

to corrections in Supply Chain management, higher base

effect in a mature category, etc. It is now focusing on

strengthening its new product introduction in the OTC

segment and improving visibility and prescriptions

generation in the ethicals portfolio. We have started to see

improved performance in the last couple of quarters. The

company reported a strong 24.5% growth in Q1FY09. We

expect the segment to report 16.0% CAGR in the FY08-

FY10E period, helped partially by the low base.

International and Foods- the biggest growth driver: IBD

(including exports) and Foods, which contributed 27% to

net sales in FY08 have been the biggest growth driver for

Dabur in the past two years. IBD grew at 39.5% in Q1FY09,

driven by strong performance in Egypt and African

markets. These segments have contributed almost 35% of

the incremental sales in the last two years.

IBD and Foods- Higher contribution to sales

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

20

24

28

32

36

40

    F    Y    0    6

    F    Y    0    7

    F    Y    0    8

    F    Y    0    9    E

    F    Y    1    0    E

(%)

Incremental Total

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

    F    Y    0    5

    F    Y    0    6

    F    Y    0    7

    F    Y    0    8

    F    Y    0    9    E

    F    Y    1    0    E

(INR mn)

-5

5

15

25

35

45(%)

Sales Sales Growth (RHS)

Page 5: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 5/10

Dabur India 5 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Despite the base impact, additional focus on foods extension

and exploitation of foreign markets like Egypt, Middle East,

etc. would maintain momentum in the medium-term. IBD

growth could, however, be hurt by adverse rupee movement

as seen in Q1FY09. We expect the management to drive

portfolio expansion in Foods to reduce dependence on just

juices, as juices are facing higher competitive pressure andsupply chain issues.

Core OPM to stabilise at 17.0%

Overview

Core OPM expected to stabilize around 17.0%, core

operating profits to grow at 14% CAGR over FY08-

FY10E.

Gross margins to decline 40bps in FY09E to 53% inFY09E and FY10E. Foods margin expected to improve.

Marketing spend to remain high on account of

aggressive new product launches

We expect core operating margins to stabilize at current

levels of c.17.0% for the next couple of years, as gross margins

come under pressure along with higher marketing spend

needed to defend growth. Dabur's operating margin has

expanded 200bps over FY05 levels to 17.1% in FY08 led by

improvement in gross margins. Core operating profits willreport 14.0% CAGR over FY08-FY10E, while reported

operating profits will grow at 12.3%.

Moving production to backward areas helping margins:

Dabur's gross margin has expanded 135bps in the FY05-

FY08 period driven primarily by lower effective excise duties

and better material management. Increase in insourcing

from backward areas with fiscal benefits has brought down

effective excise duties. Effective excise duty has declined

155bps in FY05-FY08 period.

Declining effective excise tax helped margins

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

    F    Y    0    4

    F    Y    0    5

    F    Y    0    6

    F    Y    0    7

    F    Y    0    8

(%)

As a percentage of gross sales, material cost has improved

60 bps in the FY05-FY08 period. Dabur has effectively used

long only futures positions and offsetting derivatives to

contain inflation close to zero inflation environment where

possible.

Gross margins to decline 40bps in FY09E

We are building in 40bps lower gross margin for FY09E

and FY10E compared with FY08, owing to severe pressure

on few input materials including packing, molasses, copra,

etc. The impact of inflation is higher in international markets,

which have seen sharp decline in gross margins for Q1FY09.

Dabur has reduced its forward buying due to uncertain

outlook on key materials and some decline in crude oil prices

in the last one month.

Higher packaging cost: We highlight that gross margin

improvement in the past has been despite a jump in

packaging cost as % of net sales, which has risen from 12.6%

in FY05 to 16.4% in FY08. However, the impact of significant

increase in crude oil price on packaging cost, single largest

input material for Dabur, is expected to hit gross margins.

Management has indicated that all packing materials,

including glass bottles, PET, laminates, etc. have seen

significant inflation in the year.

Operating margins to hover in a narrow band

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

    F    Y    0    5

    F    Y    0    6

    F    Y    0    7

    F    Y    0    8

    F    Y    0    9    E

    F    Y    1    0    E

(%)

52.0

52.4

52.8

53.2

53.6(%)

Core OPM Gross Margin (RHS)

Page 6: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 6/10

Dabur India 6 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Packing cost - Critical to Margins

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research

0

10

20

30

40

    F    Y    0    4

    F    Y    0    5

    F    Y    0    6

    F    Y    0    7

    F    Y    0    8

(%)

as % of Net Sales as % of material cost

Pricing power to reduce: Most domestic FMCG firms have

 been taking price hikes in line with underlying inflation in

the last two years. The headroom for such price hikes hasgot significantly squeezed as inflation is beginning to hurt

consumption. Inflation has been even stronger in the

international markets, where gross margins have declined

almost 400bps in Q1FY09.

This pressure would be offset by relatively less inflation in

 juices and other raw materials as well as 7%-8% weighted

average price hike that the company intends to take in the

domestic markets through the year. In Q1, overall price hike

was to the tune of 3.5%.We expect Dabur's brand equity to

give it pricing power over its competition, but could still be

constrained by slowing demand.

Marketing spend to remain high: Margin pressure not

withstanding, we see higher adspend/net sales of 13.0% for

 both FY09E and FY10E to support higher level of planned

marketing activities. Dabur is looking to roll out nationally

Dazzl , continue supporting new extensions in oral care and

shampoos and the new drinks brand to be launched in

Q3FY09 (new brand structure focusing on 'Real' umbrella) in

FY09E. Besides, there have been renovations in a significant

portion of its portfolio, which entails supply chain issues

as well as lumped media activities. The company will also

have to support the CHD revival, which has just started to

come back on track.

Overview

Retailing sales expected to grow from INR 90mn to INR

1.0bn between FY09E and FY11E, contributing 3.0% to

overall sales by FY11E.

Cumulative net losses to stand at INR 495mn, with 50-80bps adverse impact on OPM. Management guidance

of INR400 mn losses over three years

Financial ratios to be marginally impacted due to

investments in retailing segment.

EPS growth to slowdown to 14.5% over FY08-FY10E

Dabur's retailing initiative, under the new brand 'new u' ,

has seen seven stores opening in the last few months. We

expect the segment to contribute around 3% of turnover byFY11E, as revenue grows from INR 90mn in FY09E to INR

1.0bn in FY11E. Current stores are around 1,600sq.ft on an

average with planned store size going to be smaller than

1,000sq.ft. It would take the management a year with

around 10-15 stores in operation to get a sense of the

profitability, location-mix, merchandise-mix, etc.

Management has guided that most of the store roll-out

would be back-ended towards FY11E. We believe that the

likelihood of declining rental cost alongwith inexperience

in retailing will make the management go slow.

Net losses spread out longer in retailing

Management has budgeted for accumulated net losses of

INR400mn between FY08-FY10E and breakeven in FY11E.

We have factored in accumulated net losses of INR 495mn,

with a breakeven only after FY11E, factoring in slower store

area addition and lower operating margins. The segment

reported operating losses of INR 49mn in Q1FY09. On a net

 basis, the stores lost INR 20mn for the quarter. Management

has guided that there would be no benefits of deferred tax

on retailing losses immediately.

Retailing- Diluting financials

Page 7: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 7/10

Dabur India 7 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Operating losses in retailing business will pull down

Dabur's operating margins by 50bps in FY09E and 80bps in

FY10E.

Retailing losses: Management vs. our estimates

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Dilutive impact on return ratios: Dabur will invest INR1.4bn

in equity over three years for its retailing venture. We see

the total investment in the segment going up from around

INR200mn in FY08 to INR1.6bn, with a FY11E D/E of 0.15for a total store area of 0.1mn sq.ft. Investments in retailing

 business will adversely impact RoCE by 160-190bps in

FY09E and FY10E. On the RoE front, we expect dilution of

180bps and 210bps in FY09E and FY10E, respectively.

EPS CAGR slowing to 14.5% for FY08-FY10E

We estimate the earnings growth to slowdown to 14.5%

over FY08-FY10E from 20.2% in FY06-FY08 period. We

would like to highlight that estimated growth of the core

earnings (excluding retailing) for the same period would bea little higher at 15.7% with retailing loss per share at around

INR 0.15 in FY09E and INR 0.2 in FY10E. We estimate the

INR mn FY08 FY09E FY10E

Net Sales

Core 23,611 27,039 30,521

Retailing 0 90 431

Overall 23,611 27,129 30,952

Operating Profits

Core 4,108 4,643 5,248

Retailing (71) (116) (159)

Overall 4,037 4,526 5,089

Operating margin (%)

Core 17.4 17.2 17.2

Retailing NA (129.3) (36.9)

Overall 17.1 16.7 16.4

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Retailing losses pulling down operating margins

company to report EPS of INR 4.3 and INR 4.9 in FY09E and

FY10E, respectively.

Lower than consensus growth estimates: Our earnings

estimates are lower compared with the street consensus

 by around 5%-7%. The consensus EPS CAGR is 17% over

FY08-FY10E period, as compared to our 14.5%. The difference,

we feel, could be attributed to higher retailing losses and

lower gross margin that we expect.

We rate the stock Neutral

Target price of INR 99: Dabur is currently trading at a PER

of 18.4x and EV/EBITDA of 15.5x on a FY10E basis. On a 1-

year rolling forward basis, it is trading at a PER of 19.8x

and EV/EBITDA of 16.4x. The stock has recently moved

 below its two-year rolling forward average PEG (2-year

forward) of 1.9x and is currently trading at 1.5x. We believe

that multiples could compress a little further from current

levels. Using a PER of 20x FY10E EPS, we arrive at our target

price of INR 99 to be achieved over a 12-month period. This

implies a rolling PEG of 1.3x. We are not using sum-of the-

parts valuation for the core and retailing business, as the

retailing business is quite nascent. The stock has a FY09E

dividend yield of 2.3%, little lower than its FMCG peers.

Multiple compression justified for the current outlook:

Valuation multiples are lower than those commanded by

the stock until recently, but quite in line with their 5-year

averages. We believe that the recent compression in

valuation multiple can be justified by the expected impactof retailing business (on capital efficiency and earnings

growth), slower core earnings growth and decline in

shareholder spread. The stock's premium over Sensex at

around 40% is in line with that witnessed in the last two

years.

(200)

(160)

(120)

(80)

(40)

0    F    Y    0    8

    F    Y    0    9    E

    F    Y    1    0    E

    F    Y    1    1    E

(INR mn)

Management Mangal Keshav

Lagging consensus estimates

Sales (INR bn) EPS (INR)

FY09E FY10E FY09E FY10E

Mangal Keshav 27.1 30.9 4.3 4.9

Consensus 28.3 33.1 4.5 5.3

Difference (%) (4.1) (6.5) (4.7) (7.3)

Source: Company, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Page 8: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 8/10

Dabur India 8 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Relative Valuation- Looks a little costly on peer comparison

Companies Price (INR) 2-yr EPS EV/EBITDA (x) ROCE ROE Div

CAGR (%) (%) (%) Yield(%)

  FY08-FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY08 FY09E

Asian Paints 1,150 18.0 26.3 22.0 18.9 16.8 14.0 12.0 34.4 40.4 1.7

Colgate 372 15.7 23.4 19.5 17.5 21.1 18.3 16.2 108.9 97.4 3.9

Dabur 9 0 14.4 23.8 20.7 18.2 19.2 17.0 15.2 48.6 53.4 1.9

Hindustan Lever 220 19.2 28.8 23.3 20.3 22.3 18.5 15.9 78.8 117.1 3.3

ITC 190 13.4 22.6 20.3 17.6 15.0 13.3 11.2 26.0 25.6 2.0

Nestle 1,594 19.1 36.2 29.0 25.5 21.9 18.0 15.9 97.3 101.5 2.6

Average 16.6 26.9 22.5 19.7 19.4 16.5 14.4 65.6 72.6 2.6

Source: Company, Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

PEG dipping below the rolling average

Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

Stock performing in line with Sensex

Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research

Shareholder spread (RoE-CoE ) to decline

Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E

(%)

Spread RoE CoE

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

    J   u    l  -    0    3

    M   a   r  -    0    4

    N

   o   v  -    0    4

    J   u    l  -    0    5

    M   a   r  -    0    6

    N

   o   v  -    0    6

    J   u    l  -    0    7

    M   a   r  -    0    8

(x)

Ro lling PEG 2-y r Ave rage

p

PER: Moving down into lower bands

Source: Capitaline, Mangal Keshav Research Estimates

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

    J   u    l  -    0    7

    S   e   p  -    0    7

    N   o   v  -    0    7

    J   a   n  -    0    8

    M   a   r  -    0    8

    M   a   y  -    0    8

    J   u    l  -    0    8

Dabur (Rebased) Sensex (Rebased)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

      J     a     n   -      0      1

      J     a     n   -      0      2

      J     a     n   -      0      3

      J     a     n   -      0      4

      J     a     n   -      0      5

      J     a     n   -      0      6

      J     a     n   -      0      7

      J     a     n   -      0      8

(INR)28x

22x

16x

10x

P/E (x)

Page 9: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 9/10

Dabur India 9 30 JULY 200 8

Mangal Keshav Securities

Risk

Lower than expected losses in the retailing business :

We believe that the street is focusing on the retailing

initiative disproportionate to its contribution to either

topline or bottomline. We have seen most retailing

companies in the last 12 months adding space at a

slower pace that their historical averages. Likelihood

of falling rentals and real estate prices, better

availability of space and, in some cases, access to capital

could be driving a considered expansion currently. In

case the pace of retailing expansion changes, there could

 be some impact on earnings.

Inorganic acquisition: We believe in the entire

consumer space, Dabur has best used acquisition as a

growth lever. The acquisition of Balsara not only added

more growth categories to its portfolio, but also leftsignificant synergies on the table to be leveraged.

Balsara’s performance since it’s acquisition has been

quite exemplary, and hence, any further acquisition

could be a positive trigger.

Abatement in inflationary environment: The key

assumption that has led to slower earnings growth

expectation for Dabur is the current inflationary

environment. Any let up in commodity prices,

especially crude derivatives, could be margin and

earnings positive.

About the Company

Dabur India Ltd. is India's leading household and personal

products company with a strong association with

Ayurveda. The company has expanded its product portfolio

in the last few years moving beyond the core proposition of

Ayurveda to more mainstream platforms in personal care,

foods, household care in both India as well as outside India.

While it organically entered new categories like shampoos,

soaps, surface cleaners, etc. it acquired Balsara in 2005 to

strengthen its presence in toothpastes and home care

products like mosquito coils and repellants, etc. The

company has set a strategic objective to double its FY07

turnover by FY11E. The promoters, who hold 71% stake in

the company, have diluted their role in the management of

the company as career professionals have been managing

the company quite well over the past 5-6 years.

Page 10: MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

8/8/2019 MK_Dabur India Initiating Coverage _30 07 08

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/mkdabur-india-initiating-coverage-30-07-08 10/10

Dabur India 10 30 JULY 2008

Mangal Keshav Securities

Disclaimer:

©2006 Mangal Keshav Securities Ltd. All rights reserved.

This material is for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it . Transactions involving stocks and derivatives give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.

The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current

opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees , including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may, from time

to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities, or derivatives (including options) thereof ,of companies mentioned herein. For more information contact Mangal Keshav Securities

Ltd. at 91-22 4002 5511 or mail at [email protected]