2

Post June 2013 flood considerations

AECOM Background

4

AECOM is a global provider of professional technical and management support services to a broad range of markets, including transportation, facilities, environmental and energy. AECOM is a leader in all of the key markets that it serves.

125Serving 125 countries

45K45,000 dedicated

professionals working globally

$7+bnUS$7.3 billion of revenue

during the 12 months ended March 31, 2011

No.1Top 500 Design Firm

353Ranked No.353 in

Fortune 500

AECOM

Disaster – The Way Forward Introducing AECOM Page 4

Overview

7

With advance information, costly mistakes canbe avoided, destruction averted, and the wayto lasting victory made clear.

Sun Tzu:

8

• Population growth• Climate change

Why are natural disasters striking with greater impact and more frequently in every corner of the world?

9

Alberta is projected to grow from 4 to 6 million people by 2041

10

FEMA / AECOM National Climate Change Report

Example Change: Q100

Releasedby Whitehouse

June 2013

Significant Technical Findings:• By Year 2100 riverine floodplains will double in size, • Coastal areas will double in size

Significant Financial Findings In today’s dollars: • Average loss cost per policy will increase by approximately 90%• Individual premiums will increase 10% to 40%

11

IDENTIFY the risk

ASSESS the risk

COMMUNICATE the risk

MITIGATE the risk

Changing how we fundamentally deal with risk related to disasters

12

Risk identification and assessment provides basis of decisions

13

Risk communication needs to be relevant

14

Risk mitigation to change in behavior

15

Proactive Planning• Estimated cost $1

Reactive Emergency Response• Estimated cost $5-7

COST: What is the bottom line?

16

The ill-logical hydrologic cycle

Flood

Panic

Plan

Delay

Funding is the typical reason why action is not taken.

Funding needs to take advantage of political good will

17

“Oh don’t worry, we have a plan…”

18

What level of

protection (critical

facilities)

Should it include future

conditions

Should freeboard

be expanded

Should set-backs /

floodway be

established

How should re-building take place?

18

Clarifying Confusing Standards for Public

20

We have confused the public with different definitions

Bridge Standard

AN ABSOLUTE

Flood Plain Elevation

AN AVERAGE

21

All structures operate

correctly and will not fail

Structures will not be

obstructed with debris

Only existing conditions are

considered

Degree of uncertainty of the science

We need to inform the public on the underlying assumptions

22

Assumption: Structures will operate properly and will not fail

23

Assumption: Structures will not be blocked with debris

24

Assumption: Only existing conditions are reflected on the maps

25

Assumption: The average flood will occur

Regression Estimate Upper & Lower

Prediction Limits Water Surface

Average 1% Flood

26

Statistics are used to predict the future

27

Statistics use confidence limits to show range of likely results

28

People generally do not associate mud and debris with flooding

29

How effective are we today in communicating flood?

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Can products be improved to help guide behavior?

Path for success

32

Planning a path forward

Top Success FactorsSource: PwC Mori Survey 1997

% of Companies Responding

Ensuring top sponsorship 82%

Treating people fairly 82%

Involving employees 75%

Giving quality communications

70%

Providing sufficient training 68%

Using clear performance measures

65%

Building teams after change 62%

Focusing on culture/skill changes

62%

Rewarding success 60%

Using internal champions 60%

Reasons for FailureSource: 1995 Harvard Business Review

One Way CommunicationsUnder communicating the vision by a factor of 10

Lack of Commitment Among WorkforceNot removing obstacles to achieve the new vision

Poor Change ManagementNot planning for change response from stake holders and not communicating benefits to them

Small Scale SuccessDeclaring Victory too soon and stopping

Culture Resistance or RejectionsNot anchoring change in the organization culture

33

Simultaneously working on three fronts to drive business benefit

34

Resist Reinforce Restrict Retreat

Protect with gates, levees

and hard structures

Protect whatwe must

Upgrade building codes/

ordinances

Where it’s too difficult or

impossible to protect

Investigate + Study

Likely Scenarios

35

The Road Map to Recovery

• Define the Need / Create the Vision

• Assess the Extent of Damage and Scoping the

Works

• Reviewi the Options and assertain the priorities

• Accelerate the ‘Early Wins’

• Develop the Infrastructure Response Plan

• Agree the Strategy for Recovery

• Create the Infrastructure Master Plan

• Develop the Master Schedule and Budget

• Set up the Management Controls and Reporting

Structure

• Establish the Key Performance Indicators /

Deliverables

• Mobilise the Program Team

• Develop the Master Infrastructure Recovery

Plan

• Produce the Execution Strategy and

Implementation Plan

• Procure the Design Consultants

• Accelerate the Enabling Works Packages

• Monitor and Control the Program

• Launch the ‘Investor Confidence Initiative’

• Communicate the ‘Good News’ stories globally

• Produce the Procurement Strategy for Implementation

• Appoint the Program Management Consultant for

Delivery

• Launch the Recovery Program

Stage 1 – (30-120 Days) Stage 2 – (60 -180 Days) Stage 3 – (60+ Days)

STRATEGIC PLANNING PHASE

RESPOND RECOVER– Short Term RECOVER – Long Term

Page 35

Mitigation planning

37

Property Protection

• Acquisition • Relocation

• Building elevation• Critical facilities

protection• Structural Retrofitting• Safe rooms, shutters,

shatter-resistant glass• Insurance

38

Natural Resource Protection

• Floodplain protection• Watershed management

• Riparian buffers• Forest and vegetative

management • Erosion and sediment

control• Wetland preservation and

restoration• Habitat preservation• Coastal management

39

Structural / Engineered Projects

• Reservoirs• Dams, levees, dikes• Seawalls, revetments,

gabions• Flood / tide gates,

hurricane barriers• Stormwater diversions,

detention/retention basins, channel

modification• Reservoirs

• Beach nourishment, dune restoration

• Slope stabilization

40

Correcting Mistakes of the Past

41

• Risk Communication (i.e. hazard map information)• Outreach projects• Speaker series/

demonstration events• Real estate disclosure

• Library materials• School children

educational programs• Hazard expositions

• Technical assistance

Public Education & Awareness

42

Emergency Services

• Warning systems • Emergency response

equipment• Shelter operations

• Evacuation planning and management

• Emergency response training and exercises

• Sandbagging for flood protection

• Installing temporary shutters

43

What makes a good mitigation plan?

• Process vs. Product– “Plans are worthless. Planning is essential.”

–Dwight D. Eisenhower• Holistic mitigation strategy

– Includes projects + policies + programs + recurring activities• Specific, practical and measurable actions

– Linked to sound assessments of risk and capability• Straightforward implementation mechanisms

– Routine monitoring, evaluating and updating– Integration with other community processes/initiatives– Effectively applied following disaster events

44

Planning Process

45

• Involve the public – not as easy as it sounds!• Develop strategy for multiple methods of engagement

– Meetings / Open Houses – Public Opinion Surveys – hard copy and web-deployed– Combine efforts with other public outreach initiatives– Be creative in getting the word out

Planning Process

46

Continuous outreach and public relations yields actions at the community

NEW FLOOD MAPS

47

Planning Process

48

Planning Process

49

• Involve local media– Press releases, interviews, etc.

• Establish more formal roles for those interested in participating in the process– Citizen Advisory Committee– Stakeholder Interest Groups

Planning Process

50

• Relies heavily on historical data, GIS technology, and probabilistic risk modeling

• Better local data = better risk assessments

• Better risk assessments do not necessarily lead to higher quality mitigation plans– Have often been the most

overemphasized phase of the planning process

Risk Assessment

51

HAZUS quantifies the disaster

Short Term

Shelter

Substantial Damage

Essential Facility Loss

of Use

Debris Generated

Truckloads Required to

Remove

Economic Loss

Ottawa 2,695 104 0 46,514 1,861 180.0M

Rogers 5,194 310 0 64,385 2,575 256.2M

Muskogee 2,023 69 4 26,456 1,058 111.8M

Pittsburg 825 113 0 30,235 1,209 117.6M

Carter 949 23 0 14.939 597 71.5M

Logan 857 79 2 21,461 858 102.2M

52

Predicting the risk of flood in financial terms

53

HAZUS: Based on best data

54

Risk Assessment: Assessing Vulnerability

55

Risk Assessment: Assessing VulnerabilityEstimated Potential Losses to Flood Hazards

Return Interval

Capital Stock Losses Business Interruption Losses

Total LossTotal Building Damage

Total Contents Damage

Inventory Loss

Relocation Loss

Capital Related

Loss

Wage Losses

Rental Income

Loss

10-Year $35,002,000 $44,332,000 $1,969,000 $226,000 $228,000 $1,148,000 $65,000 $82,970,000

50-Year $47,887,000 $60,430,000 $2,430,000 $316,000 $321,000 $1,255,000 $100,000 $112,739,000

100-Year $56,112,000 $73,797,000 $3,309,000 $390,000 $542,000 $1,501,000 $147,000 $135,798,000

500-Year $66,630,000 $88,974,000 $3,956,000 $445,000 $606,000 $1,861,000 $174,000 $162,646,000

Additional Impacts Caused by Flood Hazards

Return IntervalDebris Generated

(tons)Displaced

HouseholdsTemporary

Shelter Needs

10-Year 10,821 2,407 5,124

50-Year 14,446 3,066 6,860

100-Year 15,368 3,164 7,194

500-Year 17,539 3,534 8,200

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Risk Assessment: Assessing Vulnerability

57

Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions

Table 6.21Summary of Results

HazardCategory/Degree of Risk

Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time Duration PRI ScoreAtmospheric Hazards

Extreme Temperatures Highly Likely Minor Small More than 24 hours Less than one week 2.3Extreme Wind Highly Likely Critical Large More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 3.2Hurricane & Tropical Storm Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 3.2Lightning Highly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.2Nor’easter Highly Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hours Less than one week 3.6Tornado Likely Limited Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.4Winter Storm Highly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hours Less than one week 3.0

Hydrologic Hazards

Coastal Erosion Highly Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.9

Dam Failure Unlikely Critical Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.1

Drought Possible Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.3

Flood Highly Likely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours More than one week 3.4

Storm Surge Possible Critical Moderate More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 2.4

Wave Action Highly Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.9

Geologic HazardsEarthquake Unlikely Minor Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 1.5Landslide Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.7

Other Natural HazardsWildfire Highly Likely Minor Moderate Less than 6 hours Less than one week 2.8

58

Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions

59

Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions

Table 5.22Conclusions on Hazard Risk

HIGH RISK

Nor’easterFlood

Extreme WindHurricane and Tropical Storm

Winter Storm

MODERATE RISK

Coastal ErosionWave Action

WildfireLandslide

Storm SurgeTornado

LOW RISK

DroughtExtreme Temperatures

LightningDam FailureEarthquake

60

Mitigation Strategy: Mitigation Action Plan

Action

Category

Hazard

Objective(s) Addressed

Priority

Funding Sources

Responsibility

Completion Date

Background

61

Mitigation Strategy: Mitigation Action Plan

• Actions should:– be realistically achievable;– be measureable (include

performance-based outcomes);– be tied to specific assignments of

responsibility; – include a mix of mitigation

techniques:• Prevention• Property Protection• Natural Resource Protection• Structural Projects • Public Education & Awareness

62

Assign and enforce responsibility/accountability

Transparent and uniform methodof comparing projects

64

• Uniform Cost Estimate– Pre-construction costs

– Construction costs

– Ancillary costs (permits, A&E fees …)

– Annual maintenance costs

– Time value of money

• Benefits– Avoided damages and losses

– Avoided causalities

– Avoided emergency management costs

Transparent uniform method to rank projects

Transparency in DecisionsTriple Bottom Line Tool

66

The Triple Bottom Line (TBL)

67

Financial (LCA)

Capital Costs

Operationsand Other* Costs

EnvironmentalClimate

Habitat

Water Use

Water Quality

Air Quality

Natural Resource Inputs

SocialSystem Resilience

Ratepayer Affordability

Bicycle and Pedestrian Environment

Odor

Noise

Recreation / Open Space

Employment

Cultural Resources

Construction Impacts

TBL Evaluation Criteria

* Includes Operations & Maintenance, Replacement & Renewal, Decommissioning, and Avoided Costs

68

Operations and maintenance

Replacement and renewal

Decommissioning

Sale of bio-fuel energy

Avoided water treatment

Avoided combined sewer discharge

Design and planning

Capital equipment

Installation and construction

Operating cost

Avoided cost

Capital cost

LCA Components

69

TBL ModelSummary Sheet

Doesn’t produce a recommendation or overall score

70

TBL Model ComponentsProject Alternatives Comparison

Project Management

72

Program management lowers risk

Leadership

Skills

Capacity

Latest Enabling

Technology

Schedule

Quality

Cost

73

PM plan key processes developed real program experience

Financial Management Schedule Management

Requirements Management

Deliverable Management Data Management Communications

Management Change Management

Risk Management Action Item Management Subcontract Management

Quality Management

74

• Risks – Adequate reporting and Timely information to client

PMI Life Cycle ProcessesMonitoring & Controlling Tracks

74

Key performance

metrics

Balanced scorecard

Shared metrics

Earned value management

EVM portal

75

Plan

Do

Check

Act

The QMP Defines the Levels of QA/QC

Checklists Peer Reviews Independent Reviews

Senior Technical Reviews

QASP

76

Plan

Do

Check

Act

The QMP Provides a Means for Learning and Improving

Lessons Learned Process Improvement Project Closeout

Lessons Learned Library identifies opportunities for

Process Improvement

Flood simulation can teach actions

78

• Serious computer game and simulator – Developed by PlayGen, Ltd. under direction from ASFPM Foundation

– PlayGen, Ltd developed “FloodSim” game for public awareness in the UK

• Purpose: – Simulation & learning environment for decision-makers

– Teach disaster-resilient & NAI principles for community development

– Show community health and smart floodplain management link

• Sponsorship opportunities available

“FloodManager” Interactive Professional Game

79

Initial Town Layout

80

Build Menu

81

Storm Animation

82

News Flash

83

End of Year Summary

Preparing for the next flood disaster

85

Winnipeg Digital Flood Manual

• Allows effective management for flooding• Easy transition plan as staff retire

86

Simulated flood scenarios

• View the Flood Procedure Database component• Select desired flood scenario

• Specify query criteria• Display query results with resource quantities in

tabular or map display

87

All flood defense activities tracked

• Print task lists for field crews

• Enter activity activation / deactivation data

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All documentation digital

Flood Warning

90

Simple

Complicated ComplexForecasting

Mapping

Difficulty of flood prediction

91

Stage 1: Planning Stage 2: Design & Implementation Stage 3: Operations

Proposed Implementation Process

Determine Needs & Capabilities Develop Systems & Procedures Effective & Sustainable Operations

Flood Warning System

Page 91

• Identify Areas to Receive Flood Warning Protection

• Identify Flood Hazards in the Defined Areas

• Research Historical Floods (known hazards)

• Prepare Engineering Models to Simulate Flood Scenarios

(potentially unknown hazards)

• Identify Populations and Infrastructure at Risk in the

Flood Hazard Areas

• Assess Response Capabilities

• Identify Organizations which Participate in Flood Response

in the Defined Areas

• Estimate Response Capabilities and Timelines

• Identify Responsible Agency• Develop a Funding Plan

• Meteorological Forecasting• Local Agency and/or 3rd Party

• Precipitation Monitoring• Satellite, Radar and Gauges

• Discharge Monitoring• Gauges on Dams and Streams

• Data Collection• Need Reliable Communications

• Flood Forecasting• Engineering Models with Flood

Mapping (static or dynamic)

• Develop Response Plans• Flood Emergency Action Plan

• Internal Communications Plan

• Operations & Maintenance Plan

• Public Education Plan

• Public Communications Plan

• System Implementation

Ongoing Activities:

• Operator Training

• Public Education

• Daily Operations

• Staff Operations Schedule

• Maintenance Schedule

• Monitor Meteorological Forecasts (long & short range)

• Monitor Flood Forecast Models

• Follow EAP Guidance for Flood Operation Triggers

• Flood Operations

• Mobilize, Monitor & Forecast

• EAP Response Guidance for Warnings & Evacuations

• Update Forecasts

• After-action Debriefs

• Revise Plans as Appropriate

Potential next steps

9393

• Flood recovery data• Policy development• Mitigation planning• Mitigation implementation• Knowledge sharing

Major steps forward

94

Many citizens look for leadership from the government

95

Policies established today will establish future resiliency of the Province

Risk communication to the public is essential for proper individual actions

Transparency on projects is crucial for public support

Monitor, Measure, Report, Repeat

Summary