Mitigação das mudanças climáticas e considerações sobre o setor elétrico - Ivan Ivanov...

< 1-17 >CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015

Prof. Dr. Ivan Ivanov,Head of Safety and Environmental & Engineering LaboratoryTechnical University of Sofia, Bulgaria

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Introduction

As background – general comparative analysis

of the impact of Europe and separate Bulgaria,

Brazil and separate Minas Gerais

CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015general

This short presentation aims to show only a sketch of some problems of climate change

and my understanding for a rational approach for their mitigation, in particular for energy sector, … 15 minutes not allow details.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bandeira_de_Minas_Gerais.svg

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The global reality

CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015general

Today’s world is a very different place for live from the past. For instance for last 500 years the world’s population has increased about 15 times. And it has been industrialized without regard for need to protect and respect nature. And today only consumption of energy fuels causes about 150 million tones of CO2 into the atmosphere every day. The whole world is affected by global warming.

It doesn’t matter where are CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, the earth’s rotation and the uneven heating of the atmosphere by the sun ensure that the CO2 is distributed randomly.

That’s why the target in UN climate negotiations is limiting the rise in average global temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

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Our survey for transposition of Directive 2001/80/EC in Bulgaria (LCP-TPP>50MW) shows increased trend after 2000 of the energy composition.

CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015

Global energy consumption and examples for Europe, Bulgaria and Brazil

Energy consumption in EU

SourceNumber of

plants

Installed capacity (MW

) % Total

Hydro 633 73,678 72.1%Gas 101 10,798 10.6%Oil 568 4,446 4.4%

Biomass 269 3,693 3.6%Nuclear 2 2,007 2%

Coal 7 1,415 1.4%Wind 15 237 0.2%

Total 1,595 96,294 94.3%

Imports 5,850 5.7%

Electricity generation in Brazil, 2007

Total coal, oil and gas in Brazil are only 16 %, but in Europe – 79 %

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt


Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Europe…..

Primary Energy Consumption

In the basis of the definition of EU’ targets are:

on the one hand – the needs and energy consumption but not only of the “big players” – Germany, France, UK, Italy….and all 27

on the other hand – their share in the GHGs production - for 2010

One of the most important challenges of the European Union now in the way to the sustainable development is the climate changes, and thence the goal is to find most rationale decision of the European "20-20-20" targets.

GHGs emissions 2010, base year 1990 - Index (1990 = 100)


Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Bulgaria and Brazil…..

Some indicators for comparison in energy sector(approximately – data for different years after 2000)

No. Indicators Bulgaria Brazil times to BG

1 Territory [km2] 110,994 8,515,767 76.7

2 Population 7,364,570 202,768,562 27.5

3 GDP /PPP (nominal) [$ per capita] 17,869 (8,037) 15,941 (11,281) 0.9 (1.4)

4 Installed capacity [MW] 12,700 121,000 9,5

5 Generation of electricity [TWh] 44 465 10.6

6 Installed nuclear capacity [MW] 1,926 1,884 0.98

7 Share of nuclear energy [%] 31.8 2.9 0.09

8 Share of renewable energy [%] 9.8 82 (77% hydroelectric)

8.4

9 Average electricity use [MWh per capita/year]

4.94 2.17 0.46

10 CO2-emission [Mt/year] 25.1 388 15.5

11 CO2-emission [Mt/MWh] 0.50 0.83 1.66

12 CO2-emission [t per capita/year] 3.4 1.91 0.56

Compared with Bulgaria the installed capacity and generation of electricity are 10 times more, but it is not so much taking into account the general indicators in the table. In the same time 15.5 times CO2-emission more, although the hydroelectricity generation over 80% of electricity demands of Brazil. Significant reason for the specific CO2 of Brazil compared with Bulgaria is almost the same capacity, but 10 times less share of nuclear energy (data of IAEA, 2015-04-30) with “zero” CO2 emission.

Brazil is the world's fifth largest country, both by geographical area and by population, the 10th largest energy consumer in the world and the largest in South America. Its installed capacity is comparable to that of Italy and UK, but with a much larger transmission network.


Global energy consumption, GHG and more for Minas Gerais …..

As one actual publication in this field could be referred here: Xavier et al.: Energy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil: an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamics, Energy, Sustainability and Society 2013 3:17.

The Brazilian and Minas Gerais state energy mix are representatively.

The developed two scenarios: BAU (business-as-usual), with no changes in the energy profile of the state and RIC (reduction of carbon intensity) as a key goal/with the same rates of economic growth and energy demand but with stimulation of energy efficiency policies and use of renewable energy/

shown the installed capacity in Minas Gerais until 2030, but



taking into account very big biomass potential of Brazil it seems not enough presented in the RIC, although the biomass is underlined reported in the Memorandum item according to UNFCCC Guidelines.

On other hand for comparison the attention in Europe: the 20% RES target for 2020 established in the Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of renewable energy.

Share of RES in energy consumption’2010/ base the use 6% of RES in the EU (1996)



the RIC seems should be more ambitious than about 6 % difference in 2020.

Again as comparison with Europe: a reduction GHGs emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels, as target for 2020 and

GHG emissions in Minas Gerais in the BAU and RIC scenarios,

That’s why could be applied


Rational approach for GHG’ reduction and climate changes’ mitigation, as example for application in Brazil / Minas Gerais …..

Action-1Application of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) procedures and urgently zoning and planning for “cap & trade” principle for emissions.

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) could be applied on Brazil or Minas Gerais’ level or more differentiated in each of zone (area or municipality) - there is a "cap", or limit on the total amount of GHGs that can be and it allows they can sell to or buy from one another as needed.

The effect of EU-ETS: For year the CO2 emissions dropped by 3% to 7.5 tones per capita.


Action-2

Application of SWOT analysis as technique of the strategic management, but not ordinary and Extended SWOT analysis

for the identification of the influences of every plant.



Action-3


Application of new CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage – technologies)

For Brazil’s respectively Minas Gerais especially in the coal energy sector could be listed:

• Pre-combustion technology - IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

• Oxyfuel Combustion

• Post-combustion Technology - CFBC (Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion)

• End of pipe technology.


Action-4


for operational safety of the plants and protection of the employees, public and environment from the harmful industrial effects.

Application of ALARA Principle

(As Low As Reasonably Achievable)


Action-5


To be defined and prosecuted Brazil’s targets,

as model for instance similar of the European "20-20-20" targets to be met by 2020, namely: A reduction GHGs emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels 20% of Brazil energy consumption (outside hydro energy) to come from other renewable resources 20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be achieved by improving energy efficiency.


Action-6


At last but not least place:

Preparing of proposals and implementation of joint projects with European partners in H2020, programs of the Brazil government, etc.

For Bulgarian partner you can rely on

the Technical University of Sofia (Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory)

and/or

IVECOL-CONSULT Ltd.


In conclusion

These actions presented to your attention could be considered and accepted from authorities, municipalities and companies in Brazil, in particular in Minas Gerais, as reasonable recommendations and to be taken relevant measures and activities for possible input for the

Global WarmingMitigation

and achieve of local safe and eco-friendly sustainable development.

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Thank youfor the attention

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Ivan IvanovHead of SE&EL - Safety and Environmental & Engineering Laboratory

Technical University of Sofia, Electrical Power Department

1000 Sofia, 8 “Kl. Ohridski” Blvd., Block 12,

BULGARIA

and

CEO of IVECOL-CONSULT Ltd.

1618 Sofia, P. O. Box 273

Tel. /Fax (+359 2) 488-1069 , 965-2043E-mails: [email protected] and [email protected]

?

CONNECT Europe/Brazil Programme, Seminar of WayCarbon, Belo Horizonte, 21 July, 2015

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Mitigação das mudanças climáticas e considerações sobre o setor elétrico - Ivan Ivanov...

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