Mississippi River Bridge An Analysis of Alternatives

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Mississippi River Bridge

An Analysis of Alternatives

Mississippi River Bridge

An Analysis of AlternativesExpert Panel ReviewExpert Panel Review

Sharon Greene & Associates


AgendaAgenda

●Purpose and Need for New Bridge●Existing Conditions●Definition of Alternatives●Comparison of Alternatives


Purpose of ProjectPurpose of Project

“The purpose of the proposed action is to relieve increasingly

severe traffic congestion and reduce traffic crashes on downtown St.

Louis-area Mississippi River crossings, especially on the Poplar Street Bridge (I-55/70/64), thereby

avoiding economic stagnation at the core of the region.”

Source: Mississippi River Crossing: Relocated I-70 and I-64 Connector, Final Environmental Impact Statement, March 2001.


Need for ProjectNeed for Project

●Improve travel capacity and travel efficiency

●Improve system linkages and community access

●Reduce traffic crashes●Reduce travel times●Avoid economic stagnation

Source: Mississippi River Crossing: Relocated I-70 and I-64 Connector, Final Environmental Impact Statement, March 2001.


Existing Downtown CrossingsExisting Downtown Crossings

McKinley Bridge

ML King Bridge

Eads Bridge

Poplar Street Bridge


Existing Conditions: Daily CrossingsExisting Conditions: Daily Crossings

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Poplar Eads MLKMcKinley I-255 I-270

US 67 Downtown Total Overal Total

Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Average Daily Traffic History, Illinois Department of Transportation.


Existing Conditions:Downtown AM Peak Westbound Destinations

Existing Conditions:Downtown AM Peak Westbound Destinations

I-64

CBD

I-70

I-55

10,964 TotalPeak Hour Trips


3,847 (35%)3,847 (35%)

1,478 (13%)1,478 (13%)

3,877 (35%)3,877 (35%)

Source: Mississippi River Crossings: Overview of Travel Patterns, East-West Council of Governments, September 2005.

1,762 (16%)1,762 (16%)

N

Mis

siss

ipp

i Riv

er


Existing Conditions:Poplar AM Peak Westbound DestinationsExisting Conditions:Poplar AM Peak Westbound Destinations

I-64

CBD

I-70

I-55



3,847 (57%)3,847 (57%)

1,478 (22%)1,478 (22%)

979 (14%)979 (14%)


463 (7%)463 (7%)

N

Mis

siss

ipp

i Riv

er

Poplar


Existing Conditions:All Downtown Crossings by Vehicle TypeAM Peak, Westbound Destinations

Existing Conditions:All Downtown Crossings by Vehicle TypeAM Peak, Westbound Destinations

MovementPassenger Vehicles

Heavy Trucks

I-64 99% 1%

I-55/I-44 88% 12%

I-70 90% 10%

Downtown 98% 2%

Total 96% 4%

Source: Special Traffic Counts, East-West Council of Governments, December 2006.


Existing Conditions:Poplar Street Crossings by Vehicle TypeAM Peak, Westbound Destinations

Existing Conditions:Poplar Street Crossings by Vehicle TypeAM Peak, Westbound Destinations


Heavy Trucks

I-64 99% 1%

I-55/I-44 88% 12%

I-70 79% 21%

Downtown 94% 6%

Total 95% 5%



Existing Conditions:Poplar Street Crossings by Vehicle Type: Off-Peak OnlyWest bound Destinations

Existing Conditions:Poplar Street Crossings by Vehicle Type: Off-Peak OnlyWest bound Destinations


Heavy Trucks

I-64 94% 6%

I-55/I-44 70% 30%

I-70 67% 33%

Downtown 97% 3%

Total 82% 18%



Alternatives Under ConsiderationAlternatives Under Consideration

McKinley Bridge

ML King Bridge

Eads Bridge

Poplar Street Bridge

Proposed MRB

Proposed Coupler Bridge

Proposed IL-3

Proposed I-64


MRB: No ConnectionsMRB: No Connections● Landside Improvements:

None● Capital Cost Estimate:

$999.2M (YOE)● Proposed Schedule:

2009-2014● NEPA Status:

ROD proposed 2007● Potential Committed

Funding: SAFETEA-LU Earmarks:

$239M Additional IDOT Funding:

$210M

● Tolling Considered: Yes

Proposed MRB


MRB: With I-64 ConnectorMRB: With I-64 Connector● Landside Improvements:

I-64 Connection

● Capital Cost Estimate: $1,561.5M (YOE)

● Proposed Schedule: 2009-2014

● NEPA Status: ROD proposed 2007

● Potential Committed Funding: SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M Additional IDOT Funding:

$210M


Proposed MRB

Proposed I-64


MRB: With I-64 and IL-3 ConnectionsMRB: With I-64 and IL-3 Connections

● Landside Improvements:

I-64 Connection and IL-3 Connection

● Capital Cost Estimate: $1,762.5M (YOE)

● Proposed Schedule:2009-2014

● NEPA Status:ROD proposed 2007

● Potential Committed Funding: SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M Additional IDOT Funding:

$210M


Proposed MRB

Proposed I-64

Proposed IL-3


MLK Coupler BridgeMLK Coupler Bridge● Landside Improvements:

None● Capital Cost Estimate:

$545.9M (YOE)● Proposed Schedule:

2012-2014● NEPA Status:

Not Analyzed ● Potential Committed

Funding: SAFETEA-LU Earmarks: $239M Additional IDOT Funding:

$210M

● Tolling Considered: No

Proposed Coupler Bridge


Comparison of AlternativesComparison of Alternatives

●Congestion Reduction●Network Connectivity●Travel Time Savings●Regional Economic Development

Impacts ●Potential for Revenue Generation


2020 Average Daily Traffic by Alternative : Downtown Bridges and All Bridges

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

No Build M LK Coupler M RB, AllConnections - No

Toll

M RB, I-64Connection - No

Toll

M RB, NoConnections - No

Toll

M RB, AllConnections - $1Auto / $3 Truck

M RB, I-64Connection - $1Auto / $3 Truck

M RB, NoConnections - $1Auto / $3 Truck

M RB, AllConnections - $2Auto / $4 Truck

Downtown Bridges All Bridges

Congestion Reduction:2020 Traffic Volume ComparisonCongestion Reduction:2020 Traffic Volume Comparison

214,358

371,705

230,135

381,755 391,378

246,400

391,828

242,625

392,079

246,248

391,232

234,238

391,346

232,368

391,254

233,609

391,220

230,861

Source: East-West Gateway Council of Government Travel Demand Model Run


Congestion Reduction:2020 Traffic Volume ComparisonCongestion Reduction:2020 Traffic Volume Comparison

Traffic Volume By Alternative and Toll Scenario

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

No Build MLK Coupler MRB: AllConnect - No

Toll

MRB: I-64Connect - No

Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3

MRB: I-64Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: NoConnect -

$1/$3

MRB: AllConnect -

$2/$4

Poplar St. New MRB MLK McKinley Eads



Congestion Reduction:2020 AM Westbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

Congestion Reduction:2020 AM Westbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

Traffic Congestion ReliefAM Westbound V/C Ratio By Alternative

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

No Build MLK Coupler MRB: AllConnect -

No Toll

MRB: I-64Connect -

No Toll

MRB: NoConnect -

No Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1 / $3

MRB: I-64Connect -

$1 / $3

MRB: NoConnect -

$1 / $3

MRB: AllConnect -

$2 / $4

Poplar New MRB MLK McKinley Eads



Congestion Reduction:2020 PM Eastbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

Congestion Reduction:2020 PM Eastbound Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio

Traffic Congestion ReliefPM Eastbound V/C Ratio By Alternative

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


No Toll

MRB: I-64Connect -

No Toll

MRB: NoConnect -

No Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1 / $3

MRB: I-64Connect -

$1 / $3

MRB: NoConnect -

$1 / $3

MRB: AllConnect -

$2 / $4

Poplar New MRB MLK McKinley Eads



Travel PatternsTravel PatternsMRB: All Connections


Internal/External Trips Analysis:New MRBInternal/External Trips Analysis:New MRB

Percent Change In External and Internal Crossings on MRBDaily Vehicle Trips

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MRB: All Connect- No Toll

MRB: I-64Connect - No Toll

MRB: No Connect- No Toll

MRB: All Connect- $1/$3

MRB: I-64Connect - $1/$3

MRB: No Connect- $1/$3

MRB: All Connect- $2/$4

IL to MO (Internal) IL to MO (External/Through) IL to MO (External-Internal)



Internal/External Trips Analysis:Poplar Street BridgeInternal/External Trips Analysis:Poplar Street Bridge

Percent Change In External and Internal Crossings on Poplar Daily Vehicle Trips

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MLK Coupler MRB: AllConnect - No

Toll


Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3


MRB: NoConnect - $1/$3

MRB: AllConnect - $2/$4




Internal/External Trips Analysis:Change on Poplar Street BridgeInternal/External Trips Analysis:Change on Poplar Street Bridge

Change In Crossings on Poplar Bridge Compared to No Build: Daily Vehicle Trips

-35,000

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

MLK Coupler

MRB: AllConnect - No

Toll


Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3

MRB: I-64Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: NoConnect -

$1/$3

MRB: AllConnect -

$2/$4




Annual Travel Time Savings:All BridgesAnnual Travel Time Savings:All Bridges

Annual Weekday Travel Time Savings Compared to No Build:AM Westbound Vehicle Trips - All Bridges

(Hours)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Toll


Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3

MRB: I-64Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: NoConnect -

$1/$3

MRB: AllConnect -

$2/$4

All Bridges



Average Travel Time for AM Westbound Trips:Poplar, New MRB, and MLK Bridges

Average Travel Time for AM Westbound Trips:Poplar, New MRB, and MLK BridgesAverage Per Vehicle Travel Time:

AM Westbound Trips(Minutes)

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34


No Toll

MRB: I-64Connect -

No Toll

MRB: NoConnect -

No Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1 / $3

MRB: I-64Connect -

$1 / $3

MRB: NoConnect -

$1 / $3

MRB: AllConnect -

$2 / $4

Poplar St. New MRB MLK



Average Travel Time Between Key Origins and DestinationsAverage Travel Time Between Key Origins and Destinations


Average Travel Time SavingsAverage Travel Time SavingsAverage Travel Time Savings Compared to No Build:

Trips Between Key Regional Origins and BJC Hospital(Minutes)

0

1

2

3

4


Toll


Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3




Edwardsville to BJC Hospital Collinsville to BJC Hospital Belleville to BJC Hospital




Trips Between Key Regional Origins and Clayton(Minutes)

0

1

2

3

4


Toll


Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3




Edwardsville to Clayton Collinsville to Clayton Belleville to Clayton




Trips Between Key Regional Origins and Lambert International Airport(Minutes)

0

1

2

3

4


Toll


Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3




Edwardsville to Lambert Int. Airport Collinsville to Lambert Int. Airport Belleville to Lambert Int. Airport




Trips Between Key Regional Origins and Westport Plaza(Minutes)

0

1

2

3

4


Toll


Toll

MRB: NoConnect - No

Toll

MRB: AllConnect -

$1/$3




Edwardsville to Westport Plaza Collinsville to Westport Plaza Belleville to Westport Plaza



Regional Economic Development ImpactsRegional Economic Development Impacts●Little definitive data is available ●Business community forecasts show

positive impacts in qualitative terms●Changes in the rate of growth and traffic

within the region over the last 10 years raises issues related to economic growth:● Will a new bridge spur new net growth, and

hence contribute positively to the region’s economy?

● Will the absence of a new bridge hinder potential growth with an inherent negative impacts on the region’s economy?


Potential Toll Revenue GenerationPotential Toll Revenue Generation●Toll Diversion Rates●Assumptions●Potential Revenue Generation●Potential Funding Scenario


Estimated Toll Diversion Rates:Travel Demand Model Results Estimated Toll Diversion Rates:Travel Demand Model Results

New MRB Estimated Diversion Rates

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

MRB: All Connect - $1/$3 MRB: I-64 Connect - $1/$3 MRB: No Connect - $1/$3 MRB: All Connect - $2/$4

All Vehicles Autos Trucks



Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation: AssumptionsPotential Toll Bond Revenue Generation: Assumptions●Weekend traffic levels: 0.5 * weekday levels

●Annualization Factors Weekday: 250 Weekend: 115

●Toll Rate Scenarios: $1 Auto / $3 Truck $2 Auto / $4 Truck

●Annual O&M Cost:10% of Annual Toll Revenue

●Debt Coverage Level: 1.4

●Bond Amortization: 30 years @ 5.75%


Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation Estimate:Travel Demand Model Results (in millions)

Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation Estimate:Travel Demand Model Results (in millions)

MRB: All Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: I-64 Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: No Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: All Connect -

$2/$4

2020 Annual Auto Volume 6.96 6.99 5.43 2.33

2020 Annual Truck Volume 0.62 622,380 0.56 0.76

Annual Toll Revenue $8.81 $8.86 $7.10 $7.71

Annual O&M Estimate $0.88 $0.89 $0.71 $0.77

Annual Net Revenue $7.93 $7.96 $6.39 $6.94

Available for Bonding (1.4 Coverage)

$5.66 $5.70 $4.57 $4.96

Bond Issue $80.00 $80.00 $64.00 $70.00

Percent of Total Project Costs 4.54% 5.12% 6.41% 3.97%

Additional Cost to Project (Interest on Bonds)

$89.72 $89.72 $71.78 $78.5


Potential Funding Scenarios:Travel Demand Model ResultsPotential Funding Scenarios:Travel Demand Model Results

Potential Funding Scenario/ Funding Gap Analysis(in millions)

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Funding Gap $1,234 $1,033 $486 $1,244

Potential Toll Revenue Bonds $80 $80 $64 $70

Potential Additional IDOT $210 $210 $210 $210

SAFETEA-LU Earmarks $239 $239 $239 $239



Potential Funding Scenarios:Travel Demand Model ResultsPotential Funding Scenarios:Travel Demand Model Results

Potential Funding Scenario/ Funding Gap Analysis(Percent of Total Project Costs)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Funding Gap 70% 66% 49% 71%

Potential Toll Revenue Bonds 5% 5% 6% 4%

Potential Additional IDOT 12% 13% 21% 12%

SAFETEA-LU Earmarks 14% 15% 24% 14%



Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation: Additional Consultant Assumption

Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation: Additional Consultant Assumption●$1 Auto / $3 Truck Diversion Rate =

50%

●$2 Auto / $4 Truck Diversion Rate = 70%


Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation Estimate:Consultant Assumption (in millions)

Potential Toll Bond Revenue Generation Estimate:Consultant Assumption (in millions)

MRB: All Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: I-64 Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: No Connect -

$1/$3

MRB: All Connect -

$2/$4

2020 Annual Auto Volume 13.45 13.14 8.15 8.07

2020 Annual Truck Volume 2.74 2.54 1.86 1.65

Annual Toll Revenue $21.68 $20.75 $13.73 $22.73

Annual O&M Estimate $2.17 $2.08 $1.37 $2.72

Annual Net Revenue $19.51 $18.68 $12.36 $20.45

Available for Bonding (1.4 Coverage)

$13.94 $13.34 $8.82 $14.61

Bond Issue $195.00 $189.00 $172.00 $205.00

Percent of Total Project Costs 11.06% 12.10% 17.21% 11.63%

Additional Cost to Project (Interest on Bonds)

$218.69 $211.96 $192.86 $229.90


Potential Funding Scenarios:Consultant AssumptionsPotential Funding Scenarios:Consultant Assumptions

Potential Funding Scenario/ Funding Gap AnalysisConsultant Assumptions

(in millions)

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Potential Toll Revenue Bonds $1,119 $924 $378 $1,109

Potential Additional IDOT $195 $189 $172 $205

IDOT STIP $210 $210 $210 $210

SAFETEA-LU Earmarks $239 $239 $239 $239



Potential Funding Scenarios:Consultant AssumptionsPotential Funding Scenarios:Consultant Assumptions

Potential Funding Scenario/ Funding Gap AnalysisConsultant Assumptions

(Percent of Total Project Costs)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Potential Toll Revenue Bonds 63% 59% 38% 63%

Potential Additional IDOT 11% 12% 17% 12%

IDOT STIP 12% 13% 21% 12%

SAFETEA-LU Earmarks 14% 15% 24% 14%



Questions?Questions?

Mississippi River Bridge An Analysis of Alternatives

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