Miriam Galt Principal Consultant Bee Successful Ltd Scenario Planning with Visual Thinking .

Miriam Galt

Principal Consultant

Bee Successful Ltd

Scenario Planning withVisual Thinking

www.beesuccessful.com

Agenda

The Leadership Challenge

Scenario Planning

Idon Scenario Thinking

Key Points

© Bee Successful Ltd

FutureEnvironment

CurrentOrganisation

The Leadership Challenge

Balance


Strategyright match to future needs

Planning alignment with the emergent need

Deliveryeffective service or supply

Sustainability


Limits ofPerception

Limits to Perception

New Legislation

Competitive Technologies

Economic Uncertainty

Shifting Buying Trends

ChangingDemographic

s

ReasonablyAccurate

ReasonablyAccurate

Conflicting

Values

Unexpected

Competition

Shock or disruption

PoliticalInstability

CrisisCrisis

Time to Change

Time to Change

Interacting forces create the

uncertainty zone


Leadership Questions

how effective are you now?

how quickly can you adapt?


Scenario Planning

focus service or supply

insights into the future

direct planning F

utures Back

overcome uncertainty


Learning ThroughStrategic

Conversations

SCENARIOTHINKING

Cro

ssin

g th

e ba

rrie

r of

the

“un

know

n”

Default Future

Intuition

Facts

Overcome Uncertainty

FragmentedKnowledge

Included Uncertainty

Widened Vision


FlexibleThinking Tools

Scenario Modelling Method

Idon Scenario Thinking

Facilitated Strategic Conversation

Visual Thinking• integrated knowledge• creative thinking• ownership


Strategic Conversation

©Bee Successful LtdTel: 01796 473709

FUTURE

CURRENTASSUMPTIONS

1. NEW AWARENESS2. NEW OBSERVATIONS3. NEW INSIGHTS4. NEW OPTIONS

HIDEEXPOSE REFRAME

MO

VIN

GP

RE

SE

NT


Modelling Tools

EASY ACCESSTO

SPECIALISTS

1

AFFORD-ABILITY OFEDUCATION

2

STRESS OFKEEPING UP

TO DATE

3

ASSESSINGINFORMATIONRELEVANCE

4

DOMINATIONOF

ELECTRONICMEDIA

5

ACCESS TOLEARNING

EQUIPMENT

6

AMOUNT OFCOMMUTING

HASSLE

7

COLLABOR-ATIVE THINKING

IN WORKSITUATIONS

8

LEARNINGFROM

SHARING LIVEEXPERIENCES

9

PRESSURETO BE BEST

IN CLASS

10

CORPORATES ADOPT

ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING

11

FEEDBACKSYSTEMS TO

MONITORPROGRESS

12

UKEDUCATION

SYSTEMCOLLAPSING

13FURTHEREDUCATION

FUNDINGDRYING UP

14

INCREASINGRECOGNITIONOF HOLISTIC

LEARNING

15

INCREASINGACCELERATED LEARNINGMETHODS

16

MOREMODULAR

APPROACH TOEDUCATION

17

DISAGGREG-ATING THE

CURRICULUM

18

LEARNING BYBECOMING

MORESTRETCHED

19

INCREASEDLEARNINGTHROUGH

PEER REVIEW

20

EDUCATIONESTAB'MENT

LESS LOCATIONDEPENDENT

21

THE RISEOF THE

EDUSTAR

22

WILL EXAMSAND

CERTIFICATES EXIST?

23

Ind

irec

t im

pac

t

Lower UncertaintyD

irect imp

act

Higher Uncertainty

FOUR SCENARIOS

A B

CD

- improbable events

- emergent trends

- inevitable occurrences

- critical uncertainties


Modelling Methods

BESTACTIONS

SKILLS AND COMPETENCIES

Options

Options

Options

Readiness Readiness Readiness

Action

Action

Action

STRATEGICINTENT

SCENARIOS

ROBUST ANDCONTINGENTDECISIONS

Options Action

Readiness

“What if?”


ST

RA

TE

GY

SCENARIOS

Scenario Workshops

• essential skills for specific or all futures • potential capabilities for long term advantage• organisational alignment and readiness• career planning• resource planning

Competence and Delivery

• intelligence building• risk management• visionary planning• competitive positioning• building robust strategies• product and service innovation• competitor analysis• partners and alliance identification

Strategy and Planning


Implementing Scenarios

Organisational take-up

Strategic Leadership and Innovation

Operational PlanningOperational Planning

Alternative Futures

Management Direction

Scenario A

Scenario CScenario D

Scenario B

Today


Key Points

Use all the resources you have

Embrace uncertainty - its your competitive edge

Use a structured scenario process to dialoguemulti-future thinking

- transfer it into the organisation - maintain it


• Used by the American military after the Second World War for war game

•1950’s & 60’s moved into civilian domain through RAND corporation - a military think-tank where Herman Kahn introduced imaging to planning calling it “Future-Now” • Publication of the book “The Year 2000” where the term “scenario” was first used, reflective of Hollywood. Kahn separated what can be predicted from the uncertainties

• Emergence of Stanford and Hudson Institute - Hudson attracting corporate sponsors to scenarios

•Traditional single line projections became probable projections

•“What if” story telling developed by Shell under Pierre Wack

• Introduction of Idon Scenario Planning with Visual Thinking

Summarised History of Scenarios


Miriam Galt Principal Consultant Bee Successful Ltd Scenario Planning with Visual Thinking .

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