Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian W. Gould

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Livestock Gross Margin for Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Revenue Insurance: Dairy Revenue Insurance: Recent Experience and Recent Experience and Alternatives for Increased Alternatives for Increased Adoption Adoption Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Conference Brian W. Gould Brian W. Gould Department of Agricultural and Applied Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics Economics University of Wisconsin-Madison University of Wisconsin-Madison University of Wisconsin Extension University of Wisconsin Extension

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Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Revenue Insurance: Recent Experience and Alternatives for Increased Adoption. Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian W. Gould Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin-Madison University of Wisconsin Extension - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian W. Gould

Page 1: Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian  W. Gould

Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Revenue Insurance: Recent Experience Revenue Insurance: Recent Experience and Alternatives for Increased Adoptionand Alternatives for Increased Adoption

Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy ConferenceMinnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference

Brian W. GouldBrian W. GouldDepartment of Agricultural and Applied EconomicsDepartment of Agricultural and Applied Economics

University of Wisconsin-MadisonUniversity of Wisconsin-MadisonUniversity of Wisconsin ExtensionUniversity of Wisconsin Extension

April 3, 2012April 3, 2012

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Overview of Today’s PresentationOverview of Today’s Presentation

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U.S. Dairy Industry Price and Margin VolatilityU.S. Dairy Industry Price and Margin Volatility

Use of LGM-Dairy as a Revenue Insurance Use of LGM-Dairy as a Revenue Insurance ProgramProgramProgram OverviewProgram OverviewRecent History of Use by Dairy Farm OperatorsRecent History of Use by Dairy Farm OperatorsPerformance Under Alternative Market ConditionsPerformance Under Alternative Market Conditions

Possible Program Changes to Increase AdoptionPossible Program Changes to Increase AdoptionSubsidy ScheduleSubsidy ScheduleCoverage LimitationsCoverage LimitationsPilot StatusPilot Status

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4.00

6.00

8.00

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12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00Class III/BFP/MW Prices ($/cwt)

Jan 70 - Dec 81

Jan 82 - Dec 87

Jan 88 - April 1995

May 95 - Dec 99

Jan 00 - Present

Support

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We have seen a tremendous increase in the We have seen a tremendous increase in the volatility of farm milk prices over the last 25 yearsvolatility of farm milk prices over the last 25 years

Parity milk price support

Federal Order Reform

BFP Pricing

Output Price Risk in Today’s Dairy IndustryOutput Price Risk in Today’s Dairy Industry

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The U.S. dairy industry is devoting more The U.S. dairy industry is devoting more resources to international market resources to international market developmentdevelopment Increased reliance Increased reliance →→ continued price volatility continued price volatility

The past decade has seen more volatile dairy markets, The past decade has seen more volatile dairy markets, driven by increasing global demand, tighter global driven by increasing global demand, tighter global supply and rising input prices. The forecast latent supply and rising input prices. The forecast latent demand gap described above will likely lead to even demand gap described above will likely lead to even more volatile markets… more volatile markets… ((U.S. Dairy Innovation Center, U.S. Dairy Innovation Center, 20092009))

Output Price Risk in Today’s Dairy IndustryOutput Price Risk in Today’s Dairy Industry

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2.5

4.0

5.5

7.0

8.5

10.0

11.5

13.0

14.5

U.S. Exports and Imports as a Percent of Total U.S. Milk Solids Production

Dairy Exports

Dairy Imports

% of Dairy Solids

Dramatic DropIn Milk Prices

Output Price Risk in Today’s Dairy IndustryOutput Price Risk in Today’s Dairy Industry

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1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Dairy Exports as % of Production

NFDM

Dry Whey

Butter

Cheese

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CheeseNFDM, Whey, Butter

Output Price Risk in Today’s Dairy IndustryOutput Price Risk in Today’s Dairy Industry

Milk Price CollapseMilk Price Collapse

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0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

Peterson

DF65

16% Dairy Ration

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16%16%, , PetersonPeterson and and DF65DF65 Dairy Feed Ration Indexes (2005 = 1) Dairy Feed Ration Indexes (2005 = 1)

16% Dairy Ration = 51% corn, 8% soybeans and 41% alfalfa hay

Peterson Ration = 59% corn, 14% SBM and 27% alfalfa hay

DF65 = 44% corn, 5% SBM and 51% alfalfa hay

16% Dairy Ration = 51% corn, 8% soybeans and 41% alfalfa hay

Peterson Ration = 59% corn, 14% SBM and 27% alfalfa hay

DF65 = 44% corn, 5% SBM and 51% alfalfa hay

Feed Cost Volatility and the Dairy IndustryFeed Cost Volatility and the Dairy Industry

2005 Prices($/cwt of milk)

Peterson: $5.45DF65: $3.57

2005 Prices($/cwt of milk)

Peterson: $5.45DF65: $3.57

Mar ʹ10 – Aug ʹ1116% Ration: 76.0%↑Peterson: 76.0%↑DF65: 75.2%↑

Mar ʹ10 – Aug ʹ1116% Ration: 76.0%↑Peterson: 76.0%↑DF65: 75.2%↑

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% of Total Feed Costs % of Total Feed Costs from Purchased Feedsfrom Purchased Feeds

Source: ERS Cost of Milk Source: ERS Cost of Milk Production, 2012Production, 2012

Feed Cost Volatility and the Dairy IndustryFeed Cost Volatility and the Dairy Industry

CA 75.8 NM 88.7FL 81.8 NY 49.2

GA 74.8 OH 52.8ID 82.1 OR 81.1IL 40.3 PA 49.1IN 64.7 TN 57.5IA 47.9 TX 68.4

KY 40.5 VT 50.0ME 57.7 VA 52.8MI 54.9 WA 73.8

MN 38.1 WI 33.7MO 62.0 US 59.9

Differences reflect wide Differences reflect wide range in technologies used, range in technologies used, scale of production and feed scale of production and feed market riskmarket risk

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1.00

3.00

5.00

7.00

9.00

11.00

13.00

15.00

17.00

DF65

Peterson

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Dairy Margin VolatilityDairy Margin Volatility$ /CWT Milk Margin = All Milk Price – Feed CostMargin = All Milk Price – Feed Cost

August Margin Estimates

2007: $13.822008: $11.442009: $6.62

17.2%↓52.8%↓

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1.00

2.75

4.50

6.25

8.00

9.75

11.50

13.25

15.00

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Dairy Margin VolatilityDairy Margin Volatility

$ /CWT

Margin = All Milk Price – Feed CostMargin = All Milk Price – Feed Cost

Peterson Margin ($/cwt)Peterson Margin ($/cwt)

DSA $4 Target for 100% subsidized revenue insurance

DSA $4 Target for 100% subsidized revenue insurance

% of Months With Indemnity

$4: 9.4%$6: 12.9%$8: 65.9%

% of Months With Indemnity

$4: 9.4%$6: 12.9%$8: 65.9%

DSA $8 Target w/ $0.922/cwtrevenue insurance premium,$7.078 net target

DSA $8 Target w/ $0.922/cwtrevenue insurance premium,$7.078 net target

DSA $6 Target w/ $0.155/cwtrevenue insurance premium,$5.845 net target

DSA $6 Target w/ $0.155/cwtrevenue insurance premium,$5.845 net target

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$/cwt$/cwt Milk revenue floorMilk revenue floor

Feed cost ceilingFeed cost ceiling

Minimum IOFCMinimum IOFC

Dairy Dairy RevenueRevenue Risk Management Risk Management

Could be very expensive Thin Class III options marketProblem of option contract size

Class III − 200,000/100,000 lbsLack of continuous grain trading

Corn: 5 months SBM: 8 months

Could be very expensive Thin Class III options marketProblem of option contract size

Class III − 200,000/100,000 lbsLack of continuous grain trading

Corn: 5 months SBM: 8 months

How can dairy producers establish a How can dairy producers establish a floorfloor on on their their marginmargin (i.e., (i.e., Income over Feed CostsIncome over Feed Costs,, IOFC) using existing tools?IOFC) using existing tools? One could use a One could use a Put/Call-based options Put/Call-based options strategystrategy Class III put options: Creates milk revenue Class III put options: Creates milk revenue floorfloor Feed call options: Establishes feed cost Feed call options: Establishes feed cost ceilingceiling

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$/cwt$/cwt

IOFCIOFCIOFC*IOFC*

Class III PutClass III Put

Announced Class III ↑,→ Don’t use Class III Put

Announced Class III ↑,→ Don’t use Class III Put

$/cwt$/cwt

IOFCIOFC

Class III PutClass III Put

Feed CallsFeed Calls

Feed CallsFeed Calls

Feed Price ↓ → Don’tuse Corn/SBM Calls

Feed Price ↓ → Don’tuse Corn/SBM Calls

IOFC* greater than IOFCIOFC* greater than IOFC

IOFC* greater than IOFCIOFC* greater than IOFCIOFC*IOFC*

DairyDairy RevenueRevenue Risk Management Risk Management

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Put Premium < Class III↑?Put Premium < Class III↑?

Call Costs < Feed Cost ↓?Call Costs < Feed Cost ↓?

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Aug. 2008: Livestock Gross Margin Aug. 2008: Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy (Insurance for Dairy (LGM-DairyLGM-Dairy) became ) became availableavailable Objective: Establish minimum IOFCObjective: Establish minimum IOFC Similar to put/call options strategy Similar to put/call options strategy exceptexcept::

NoNo options purchased options purchased NoNo minimum size limitminimum size limit Upper limitUpper limit: 240,000 cwt over 10 mo./insurance yr: 240,000 cwt over 10 mo./insurance yr Premium not due until Premium not due until afterafter 11-month insurance 11-month insurance

periodperiod Subsidized premiumsSubsidized premiums

USDA-RMA administered and purchased from USDA-RMA administered and purchased from firms selling Federal crop insurancefirms selling Federal crop insurance

LGM-DairyLGM-Dairy: Introduction: Introduction

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LGM-Dairy is an RMA LGM-Dairy is an RMA pilot program pilot program as are as are all LGM products (i.e., swine, fed cattle, all LGM products (i.e., swine, fed cattle, feeder cattle)feeder cattle) $20 mil. for all LGM products$20 mil. for all LGM products Expenditures set by statute not administratively Expenditures set by statute not administratively

2010/11: $16 mil. in RMA LGM-Dairy 2010/11: $16 mil. in RMA LGM-Dairy expenditures expenditures Premium subsidies and A&O paymentsPremium subsidies and A&O payments Funds used up with March 2011 offeringFunds used up with March 2011 offering

2 hours: 318 contracts, 11.6 mil cwt insured2 hours: 318 contracts, 11.6 mil cwt insured

LGM-Dairy: IntroductionLGM-Dairy: Introduction

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2011/12 LGM-Dairy funding2011/12 LGM-Dairy funding Started w/October contract offering (Oct. Started w/October contract offering (Oct.

2828thth)) $7 mil initial allotment$7 mil initial allotment After 30 minutes, system crashedAfter 30 minutes, system crashed

440 contracts440 contracts 19.3 mil cwt insured19.3 mil cwt insured > $6 mil in RMA commitments> $6 mil in RMA commitments

Nov. 9Nov. 9thth $6.2 mil. added to allowable $6.2 mil. added to allowable commitment limitcommitment limit Funds were exhausted with Nov. 18Funds were exhausted with Nov. 18thth contract contract

offeringoffering

LGM-DairyLGM-Dairy: Introduction: Introduction

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LGM-Dairy: History of AdoptionLGM-Dairy: History of Adoption

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# of # of Contracts Contracts

SoldSold

CWT CWT (000)(000)

GMG GMG (000$)(000$)

Prem. Prem. (000$)(000$)

Subsidies Subsidies (000$)(000$)

Indem.Indem.($000)($000)

Subsidy Subsidy Rate (%)Rate (%)

2008/092008/09 4545 402402 4,7164,716 287287 00 718718 00

2009/102009/10 153153 1,8721,872 24,91524,915 782782 00 281281 00

2010/112010/11 1,4121,412 46,17346,173 769,644769,644 25,01325,013 10,73610,736 6565 42.942.9

2011/122011/12 1,7831,783 40,55340,553 705,360705,360 19,18119,181 8,8788,878 00 46.346.3

TotalTotal 3,3933,393 89,00089,000 1,504,6351,504,635 45,26345,263 19,61419,614 1,0641,064 ------------

Note: There was no premium subsidy prior to Dec. 2010. Premiums shownNote: There was no premium subsidy prior to Dec. 2010. Premiums shownare prior to subsidy.are prior to subsidy.

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StateStatePolicies SoldPolicies Sold CWT InsuredCWT Insured GMGGMG PremiumsPremiums SubsidiesSubsidies

Subsidy Subsidy %%No.No.

% of % of TotalTotal

000000% of % of TotalTotal

$000$000% of % of TotalTotal

$000$000% of % of TotalTotal

$000$000% of % of TotalTotal

2010/112010/11NY 86 6.1 3,259 7.1 55,355 7.2 1,950 8.8 773 7.2 39.6MIMI 119119 8.4 4,7234,723 10.210.2 80,07280,072 10.410.4 2,5032,503 11.411.4 956956 8.98.9 37.937.9WI 421 30.0 9,273 20.1 154,487 20.1 5,038 22.9 2,083 19.4 41.3CACA 4040 2.8 4,3814,381 9.5 73,62873,628 9.69.6 2,4452,445 11.111.1 1,1321,132 10.510.5 46.346.3

TotalTotal 1,4091,409 ----- 46,17346,173 ---------- 769,645769,645 ---------- 25,01325,013 ---------- 10,73610,736 ------------ 42.942.92011/122011/12

NYNY 5353 3.03.0 2,3752,375 5.95.9 41,28641,286 5.95.9 1,1061,106 5.85.8 504504 5.75.7 45.645.6MIMI 140140 7.9 3,5723,572 8.88.8 62,16862,168 8.88.8 1,6241,624 8.58.5 759759 8.58.5 46.746.7WIWI 662662 37.1 7,9637,963 19.6 138,590138,590 19.619.6 3,7583,758 19.619.6 1,7401,740 19.619.6 46.346.3CACA 5454 3.0 6,4136,413 15.8 111,499111,499 15.815.8 2,9612,961 15.415.4 1,3661,366 15.415.4 46.146.1

TotalTotal 1,7831,783 ----- 40,55340,553 ---------- 705,360705,360 ---------- 19,18119,181 ---------- 8,8788,878 ---------- 46.346.3

LGM-Dairy: 2010/11 & 2011/12 ActivityLGM-Dairy: 2010/11 & 2011/12 Activity

Note: 2011/12 data as of Mar 9, 2012. No subsidy existed prior to Dec. 2010Note: 2011/12 data as of Mar 9, 2012. No subsidy existed prior to Dec. 201017

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Insurance Payout

Guaranteed Guaranteed Income Over Feed Income Over Feed

CostCost

Deductible Level

Expected Expected Feed CostFeed Cost

Profile of % Coverage Over Contract Life

CME Class III

CME Corn

CME SBM

Actual Actual Income Over Feed Income Over Feed

CostCost

Net Premiu

m

Actual Milk Actual Milk IncomeIncome

Final CME

Class III

Final CME Corn

Final CME SBM

Program Program RulesRules

Market Data

ProduceProducer Datar Data

Contract Design

SubsidSubsidyy

Expected Expected Milk Milk

MarketingsMarketings

Expected Expected Income Over Income Over

Feed CostFeed Cost

??

Expected Expected Milk IncomeMilk Income

Declared Declared Feed UseFeed Use

Net Guaranteed Income Over Feed

Cost

Program Outcom

e

Actual Feed Actual Feed CostCost

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LGM-Dairy is customizable with respect to: LGM-Dairy is customizable with respect to: Number of months insured by 1 contractNumber of months insured by 1 contract

1 1 –– 10 months 10 months 12 contracts each year12 contracts each year Difference between insurance vs. contract periodDifference between insurance vs. contract period

% of monthly IOFC (marketings) insured% of monthly IOFC (marketings) insured 0 – 100% of approved marketings0 – 100% of approved marketings % coverage can vary across coverage month% coverage can vary across coverage month

OtherOther farm specific farm specific insurance characteristicsinsurance characteristics Declared feed use: Only protect market-based risk?Declared feed use: Only protect market-based risk? Deductible and resulting premium subsidyDeductible and resulting premium subsidy

→→Premium specific to farm’s contractPremium specific to farm’s contract

LGM-Dairy: An OverviewLGM-Dairy: An Overview

Page 20: Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian  W. Gould

Class III, corn, and soybean meal futures Class III, corn, and soybean meal futures markets used as information source to markets used as information source to determine determine Expected Expected (forward looking) and (forward looking) and ActualActual (final) prices (final) prices NoNo futures market transactionsfutures market transactions Actual farm prices not usedActual farm prices not used No basis added to prices: All prices at ChicagoNo basis added to prices: All prices at Chicago Feed converted to Corn and SBM equivalentsFeed converted to Corn and SBM equivalents

Once LGM-Dairy purchased producer has established Once LGM-Dairy purchased producer has established an IOFC an IOFC floorfloor for insured production for insured production

LGM-Dairy: An OverviewLGM-Dairy: An Overview

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Page 21: Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian  W. Gould

Total Expected Gross Margin (TEGM) = Total Expected Gross Margin (TEGM) = Total contract Total contract Expected Expected value of milk value of milk –– Total contract Total contract ExpectedExpected feed costs feed costs = Sum of monthly (= Sum of monthly (Expected Expected milk prices x milk prices x

InsuredInsured milk) milk) – – Sum of monthly (Sum of monthly (ExpectedExpected feed prices x feed prices x Insured Insured feed use) feed use)

1 TEGM per contract 1 TEGM per contract regardlessregardless of months of months insuredinsured

LGM-Dairy: An OverviewLGM-Dairy: An Overview

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Page 22: Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian  W. Gould

Total Actual Gross Margin (TAGM) = Total Actual Gross Margin (TAGM) = Total contract Total contract ActualActual milk value milk value – – Total Total contractcontract Actual Actual insuredinsured feed cost feed cost = Sum of monthly = Sum of monthly ((Actual Actual milk prices x milk prices x

InsuredInsured milk) milk) – – Sum of monthly Sum of monthly ((ActualActual feed prices x feed prices x InsuredInsured feed use) feed use)

1 TAGM regardless of months insured1 TAGM regardless of months insured

LGM-Dairy: An OverviewLGM-Dairy: An Overview

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Page 23: Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference Brian  W. Gould

Total Gross Margin Guarantee (TGMG) = Total Gross Margin Guarantee (TGMG) = TEGM TEGM –– ( (Deductible [Deductible [$/cwt$/cwt]] x cwt insured)x cwt insured) Higher deductible → Lower premiumHigher deductible → Lower premium

Producer assumes more riskProducer assumes more risk Subsidy increases with higher deductibleSubsidy increases with higher deductible $0 deductible: 18% subsidy, $1.10 - $2.00 $0 deductible: 18% subsidy, $1.10 - $2.00

deductible: 50% subsidydeductible: 50% subsidy

If TGMG If TGMG >> TAGM → Insurance indemnity TAGM → Insurance indemnity paidpaid Payout amount = TGMG Payout amount = TGMG –– TAGM TAGM Again: Again: Only 1 indemnity calculation per Only 1 indemnity calculation per

contractcontract regardless of months insured regardless of months insured

LGM-Dairy: An OverviewLGM-Dairy: An Overview

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We use the Peterson ration for this analysisWe use the Peterson ration for this analysis 8 contracts: Jan 2005 – Jan 2012 contracts8 contracts: Jan 2005 – Jan 2012 contracts

March –Dec. covered monthsMarch –Dec. covered months Wisconsin average 2011 monthly yields Wisconsin average 2011 monthly yields $0 deductible for LGM-Dairy$0 deductible for LGM-Dairy LGM-Dairy premiums do not include subsidiesLGM-Dairy premiums do not include subsidies $4.50 - $8.00 margins guarantees in $0.50 $4.50 - $8.00 margins guarantees in $0.50

incrementsincrements Targets are net targets adjusted using formula: Targets are net targets adjusted using formula:

Original DSA Targets − DSA PremiumOriginal DSA Targets − DSA Premium Control for All-Milk/Class III BasisControl for All-Milk/Class III Basis

Month-specific basis calculated over 2000-PresentMonth-specific basis calculated over 2000-Present

LGM-Dairy: A WI Case StudyLGM-Dairy: A WI Case Study

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We use the University of Wisconsin We use the University of Wisconsin LGM-Dairy OptimizerLGM-Dairy Optimizer to find least cost to find least cost design to generate required net margindesign to generate required net margin Only concerned with protection, not Only concerned with protection, not

likelihood of receiving an indemnitylikelihood of receiving an indemnity For low margin targets less than 100% of For low margin targets less than 100% of

milk needs to be insured to achieve targetmilk needs to be insured to achieve target i.e., to achieve a $5.85/cwt target less than 50% i.e., to achieve a $5.85/cwt target less than 50%

of total production needs to be insured as of total production needs to be insured as $11.70/cwt margin achievable$11.70/cwt margin achievable

Spread the $11.70 across all production to Spread the $11.70 across all production to achieve $5.85 averageachieve $5.85 average

LGM-Dairy: A WI Case StudyLGM-Dairy: A WI Case Study

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LGM-Dairy: A WI Case StudyLGM-Dairy: A WI Case Study

Net Target

% of 10-Month Milk Insured

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

4.00 27.3 33.733.7 35.535.5 40.040.0 64.0 39.039.0 54.754.7 46.746.74.49 32.9 40.340.3 42.342.3 48.348.3 73.9 46.146.1 65.865.8 55.755.74.96 38.5 46.946.9 49.149.1 56.656.6 82.8 53.053.0 77.677.6 64.664.65.42 44.1 53.353.3 55.655.6 65.065.0 91.7 59.659.6 90.090.0 73.573.55.85 49.7 59.859.8 62.462.4 73.273.2 ------ 66.166.1 ------------ 82.36.27 55.3 66.266.2 69.069.0 81.481.4 ------ 72.572.5 ------------ 91.06.57 61.1 72.572.5 75.575.5 89.689.6 ------ 79.079.0 ------------ 99.66.91 66.6 78.978.9 82.182.1 97.997.9 ------ 85.485.4 ------------ ------7.08 72.6 85.585.5 88.688.6 ------------ ------ 91.891.8 ------------ ------------

All MilkAll Milk 15.13 12.88 19.13 18.33 12.83 16.26 20.14 ------

FeedFeed 5.44 5.79 9.56 10.84 9.17 8.89 12.55 ------

RatioRatio 2.78 2.22 2.00 1.69 1.40 1.83 1.60 ------

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$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00

DSA 2012 2011

2010 2009 2008

2007 2006 2005

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Premiums Under DSA and LGM-Dairy ($/cwt)Premiums Under DSA and LGM-Dairy ($/cwt)

Note: LGM-Dairy unsubsidized premiums are $/cwt of farm milk not just insured milkNote: LGM-Dairy unsubsidized premiums are $/cwt of farm milk not just insured milk

LGM-Dairy: A WI Case StudyLGM-Dairy: A WI Case Study

LGM vs. DSA Costs2005 MF Ratio: 2.782009 MF Ratio: 1.40

*= DSA *= 2009 *= 2005

LGM vs. DSA Costs2005 MF Ratio: 2.782009 MF Ratio: 1.40

*= DSA *= 2009 *= 2005

*

** *

**

*

*

*

*

*

* **

***

**

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How can we increase participation?How can we increase participation? I hypothesize the demand is there not the I hypothesize the demand is there not the

budget as evidenced by rapid sales when budget as evidenced by rapid sales when program is availableprogram is available

Most important Most important would be to remove LGM-would be to remove LGM-Dairy from pilot status to enable ↑ fundingDairy from pilot status to enable ↑ funding Difficult to do as LGM-Dairy is privately Difficult to do as LGM-Dairy is privately

owned and administered by the USDAowned and administered by the USDA Owners may need to reduce significantly Owners may need to reduce significantly

payments receivedpayments received

LGM-Dairy: Possible Program ChangesLGM-Dairy: Possible Program Changes

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Could eliminate/reduce premium subsidiesCould eliminate/reduce premium subsidies Even without subsidies insurance cost is low Even without subsidies insurance cost is low

relative to options-based IOFC strategyrelative to options-based IOFC strategy Agents received calls from producers willing to Agents received calls from producers willing to

purchase w/o subsidy when funds exhaustedpurchase w/o subsidy when funds exhausted

LGM-Dairy: Possible Program ChangesLGM-Dairy: Possible Program Changes

Deductible ($/cwt)

Subsidy (%)

Deductible ($/cwt)

Subsidy (%)

00 0.180.18 0.600.60 0.310.31

0.100.10 0.190.19 0.700.70 0.340.34

0.200.20 0.210.21 0.800.80 0.380.38

0.300.30 0.230.23 0.900.90 0.430.43

0.400.40 0.250.25 1.001.00 0.480.48

0.500.50 0.280.28 1.10 – 2.001.10 – 2.00 0.500.50

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Establish a two-tier premium systemEstablish a two-tier premium system Have both subsidized and unsubsidized Have both subsidized and unsubsidized

premiumspremiums After subsidized pool exhausted After subsidized pool exhausted

premiums not subsidizedpremiums not subsidized

2012 Farm Bill could be used to increase 2012 Farm Bill could be used to increase the $20 million pilot funding while still a the $20 million pilot funding while still a pilotpilot

If nothing is changed fund will be If nothing is changed fund will be exhausted with Oct. 2012 offeringexhausted with Oct. 2012 offering

LGM-Dairy: Possible Program ChangesLGM-Dairy: Possible Program Changes

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Contact InformationContact Information

The Univ. of Wisconsin Dairy Marketing Website: The Univ. of Wisconsin Dairy Marketing Website: http://future.aae.wisc.eduhttp://future.aae.wisc.edu

Livestock Gross Margin Insurance: Livestock Gross Margin Insurance: http://future.aae.wisc.edu/lgm_dairy.htmlhttp://future.aae.wisc.edu/lgm_dairy.html

To join the LGM-Dairy Mailing List:To join the LGM-Dairy Mailing List:http://future.aae.wisc.edu/lgm_dairy.html#5http://future.aae.wisc.edu/lgm_dairy.html#5

Brian W. GouldBrian W. Gould(608)263-3212(608)[email protected]@wisc.edu