Climate Change Response Framework

Minnesota Science Team: Updates and next stepsMN Science Team September 26, 2012

WelcomeIntrosBeen a long time since we formally met, though many of you have been involved in on-going workChance to re-boot our discussions and hear about progress over the past half-year

1New version in progress for MN:

ContentsThe Contemporary LandscapeClimate Change PrimerObserved Climate ChangeFuture Climate Change Impacts on ForestsForest Ecosystem VulnerabilityImplications for Forest Management

Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and SynthesisLaurentian Forest Province in MNBig effort I want to update the group about today:

Again: Focus is on FOREST ecosystems across this region2Forest Systems Addressed:Native Plant Community Systems:Fire Dependent ForestsMesic Hardwood ForestsWet ForestsFloodplan ForestsForested Rich PeatlandsAcid PeatlandsManaged Forest SystemsAspen Red Pine

NPC systems at the workshop

Managed Forest Systems added on, based on feedback from workshop participants and partners. TBD in Oct

Let me walk you through the process we followed for the workshop:

3Information Session Past climateProjected climateTree Atlas resultsPnET resultsLANDIS resultsNPC System descriptions

Starting point for defining the forest systems we were considering and leading into structured discussions

Key Drivers, Dominant Species, Stressors/Threats

Considering climate change impacts on each of theseInteractionsAdaptive capacity

4Fire-Dependent ForestDominant Species:Red pineJack pineQuaking aspenPaper birchWhite pineBalsam firBlack spruceKey Drivers: Coarse soils or shallow soils over bedrockDrought-proneSevere stand-replacing and mild surface firesThreats:Fire suppressionWP blister rust, RP shoot blight, armillariaSpruce budworm, jp budworm, tent caterpillar, wp tip weevilDeer herbivoryHazel

High AgreementLimited EvidenceHigh AgreementMedium EvidenceHigh AgreementRobustEvidenceMedium AgreementLimited EvidenceMedium AgreementRobustEvidenceLow AgreementLimited EvidenceLowAgreementMedium EvidenceLow AgreementRobustEvidenceAgreement Among InformationHighLowLimitedRobustEvidenceVulnerabilityConfidenceHighLowPositiveNegativePotential ImpactsLow VulnerabilityModerateVulnerabilityHighVulnerabilityMedium AgreementMedium EvidenceAdaptive Capacity of EcosystemsFire-Dependent ForestSouthern range extents for many species

Transition to MH in southern part of range?Depends on future fire behavior, fire suppression, prescribed fire big uncertainty but BAU trend is not great

Drought tolerant, Handles disturbance and drought

6Mesic Hardwood ForestDominant Species:Sugar mapleBur oakBasswood Green ashPaper birchBlack ashQuaking aspenYellow birchNorthern red oakWhite cedarRed mapleWhite spruceKey Drivers:Mesic soils consistent water and nutrientsSmall canopy gaps wind, disease, etcLarge-scale windthrow or fire uncommonConstrained by cold temperatures

Threats:Deer herbivoryExotic speciesInsect pestsEarthwormsDroughtRoot frost

HighLowPositiveNegativePotential ImpactsLow VulnerabilityModerateVulnerabilityHighVulnerabilityHigh AgreementLimited EvidenceHigh AgreementMedium EvidenceHigh AgreementRobustEvidenceMedium AgreementLimited EvidenceMedium AgreementMedium EvidenceMedium AgreementRobustEvidenceLow AgreementLimited EvidenceLowAgreementMedium EvidenceLow AgreementRobustEvidenceAgreement Among InformationHighLowLimitedRobustEvidenceVulnerabilityConfidenceAdaptive Capacity of EcosystemsMesic Hardwood ForestLots of potential gainers in suitable habitat

Interactions between wind and wormsRegeneration conditionsPests and disease

Adaptive Capacity:High species diversity, many species tolerant of some drought, co2 fertilization, release from cold limitations, greater nutrient requirements

8Floodplain ForestDominant Species:Silver mapleBlack ashGreen ashBlack willowAmerican elmBasswoodCottonwoodKey Drivers: Terraces or floodplains of rivers and streamsSilt or sand alluvium Occasional or annual flooding, ice damage, erosionThreats:Invasive speciesFlood regime changesDeer herbivoryErosion/ sedimentation changes

High AgreementLimited EvidenceHigh AgreementMedium EvidenceHigh AgreementRobustEvidenceMedium AgreementLimited EvidenceMedium AgreementRobustEvidenceLow AgreementLimited EvidenceLowAgreementMedium EvidenceLow AgreementRobustEvidenceAgreement Among InformationHighLowLimitedRobustEvidenceHighLowPositiveNegativePotential ImpactsLow VulnerabilityModerateVulnerabilityHighVulnerabilityVulnerabilityConfidenceMedium AgreementMedium EvidenceAdaptive Capacity of EcosystemsFloodplain ForestMore variable flood regimes, more channelization?Mismatch between reproduction and future flood timing

Adaptive C:Lots of species are potential winnersAdapted to disturbance, species can spread downstream but not new areas uplandLimited by landscape positionNot many competitors could replace except invasives?

10Wet ForestDominant Species:Black ashWhite cedarBalsam firBalsam poplarRed mapleBlack spruceKey Drivers:Wet mineral soils, nutrient richSaturated seasonally, floodingDry periods for establishmentDeeper soil layers saturated & anaerobic

Threats:Black ash declineInvasive plantsExcessive drought or waterloggingInsect pests (spruce budworm, EAB and gypsy moth)

High AgreementLimited EvidenceHigh AgreementMedium EvidenceHigh AgreementRobustEvidenceMedium AgreementLimited EvidenceMedium AgreementMedium EvidenceMedium AgreementRobustEvidenceLow AgreementLimited EvidenceLowAgreementMedium EvidenceLow AgreementRobustEvidenceAgreement Among InformationHighLowLimitedRobustEvidenceHighLowPositiveNegativePotential ImpactsLow VulnerabilityModerateVulnerabilityVulnerabilityConfidenceHighVulnerabilityAdaptive Capacity of EcosystemsWet ForestMany potential decreasing speciesIf many trees are lost due to pests or other causes, could see an increase in swamping/ waterlogging

Limited knowledge/experience managing these systemsCan tolerate intermittent conditions but not serious droughtsLower diversity12Forested Rich PeatlandDominant Species:TamarackBlack sprucePaper birchBalsam firWhite spruceRed mapleYellow birchKey Drivers:Deep, actively forming peatSaturated, anaerobic soilsLower water table than open peatlandsMoisture through groundwater and precipThreats:Changes to flood regime timing and water levelRoad building/drainingMistletoeTamarack sawflyWinter burn

High AgreementLimited EvidenceHigh AgreementMedium EvidenceHigh AgreementRobustEvidenceMedium AgreementLimited EvidenceMedium AgreementRobustEvidenceLow AgreementLimited EvidenceLowAgreementMedium EvidenceLow AgreementRobustEvidenceAgreement Among InformationHighLowLimitedRobustEvidenceHighLowPositiveNegativePotential ImpactsLow VulnerabilityModerateVulnerabilityVulnerabilityConfidenceMedium AgreementMedium EvidenceHighVulnerabilityAdaptive Capacity of EcosystemsForested Rich PeatlandChanges in flood regime and droughtsWarmer temps and longer growing season and reduce rate of peat accumulationRoads will interact with flood regime changes

Groundwater inputs increase resilienceBoreal species on southern end of their rangesLimited to particular flood regime/ landscape positions

14Acid Peatland

Dominant Species:TamarackBlack spruceBog birchKey Drivers:Deep, actively forming peatSaturated, anaerobic soilsLower water table than open peatlandsMoisture through precip onlyMore acidic and FRPSmaller and more isolated, but more common than FRPThreats:Changes to flood regime timing and water levelRoad building/drainingMistletoeTamarack sawflyWinter burn

HighLowPositiveNegativePotential ImpactsLow VulnerabilityModerateVulnerabilityHighVulnerabilityHigh AgreementLimited EvidenceHigh AgreementMedium EvidenceHigh AgreementRobustEvidenceMedium AgreementLimited EvidenceMedium AgreementRobustEvidenceLow AgreementLimited EvidenceLowAgreementMedium EvidenceLow AgreementRobustEvidenceAgreement Among InformationHighLowLimitedRobustEvidenceVulnerabilityConfidenceMedium AgreementMedium EvidenceAdaptive Capacity of EcosystemsAcid PeatlandNext stepsRed pine & Aspen discussionSummarize informationFill knowledge gaps and lingering questionsImplicationsAuthor reviewOpportunity for wider review

Red Pine and Aspen coming soon oct 9Will reach out to you all with information needs and questionsConnect these forest vulnerabilities to other concerns of land managers in the Implications chapter - wildlife, recreation, aquatic resources, etcwhere availableLet me know if you are interested in being a reviewer. 17