MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 1 MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT P O L A N D Poland prospects for...

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MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT


P O L A N D

Poland prospects for Poland prospects for development – contribution of development – contribution of

structural fundsstructural funds

Jerzy KwiecińskiJerzy KwiecińskiUndersecretary of StateUndersecretary of State

Warsaw, May 29, 2007Warsaw, May 29, 2007

22


Poland Poland – assets and weaknesses– assets and weaknesses

InnovativenessLabor market

Unemployment rate is systematically falling.Unemployment rate is systematically falling.In February it stood at 14.4%.In February it stood at 14.4%.

Economy needs both: growth in B&R Economy needs both: growth in B&R expednitures and strengthening of expednitures and strengthening of

cooperation between science and industrycooperation between science and industry

33



Economic development

Environment and natural resources

2.63.8

5.2

7.06.2

7.1

5.04.5 4.2

1.1 1.4

3.8

5.3

3.5

5.8

-7.5-7.0-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

GDP growth rate (in %)

44



Human capital andentreprenurship

Investment attractiveness

Almost half of the population is below Almost half of the population is below 35 years old35 years old

According to the A.T. Kearney Agency According to the A.T. Kearney Agency Poland ranks among of the 5 best Poland ranks among of the 5 best

world investment locationsworld investment locations

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POLAND POLAND IN THE EUROPEAN UNIONIN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Population(2005)

GDP Volume (2006)

at market prices

GDP per capita

in 2005 at PPS

millions

%billions of euro

% euro %

EU-27 491.9

100 10953.6

100.0 22500 100.0

EU-25 462.5

94.0 10852.8

99.1 23500 104.4

EU-15 388.4

79.0 10292.1

94.0 25400 112.9

EU-10 74.1 15.4 560.7 5.1 . .

EU-12 103.4

21.0 662.0 6.0 . .

Poland 38.2 7.8 243.7 2.2 11700 52.0Poland – 7.8% of the EU – 27 population; sixth country in terms of population

66


Rate of GDP growth in theRate of GDP growth in the selectedselected

EU countries in the period 200EU countries in the period 20033--20020066

Country 2003 2004 2005 2006

EU-27 1.3 2.4 1.7 2.9

EU-25 1.3 2.4 1.7 2.9

EU -15 1.1 2.3 1.5 2.7

Italy 0.0 1.2 0.1 1.9

France 1.1 2.3 1.2 2.2 (f)

Germany -0.2 1.2 0.9 2.7

Great Britain

2.7 3.3 1.9 2.7

Spain 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9

Poland 3.8 5.3 3.5 5.8

Source: Eurostat. Database – General Economic Background/Real GDP growth rate

77


Gross Domestic ProductGross Domestic Product1989=1001989=100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Czech RepublicSlovakiaHungarySlovenia

Estonia

Poland

Latvia

Lithuania

88


Regional Development and Regional Development and Raising Raising

of Territorial Cohesionof Territorial CohesionGDP

Per capita in Voivodships (at purchasing power parity)

2004EU-27 = 100

Poland on average 50.7

Source: Eurostat. 2007

Below 40,040,0 - 50,050,1 - 75,0

Above 75,0

46.7

76.8

45.4

43.4

57.1

35.2

35.4

39.3

37.9

47.2

45.4

51.7

43.6

39.4

49.6

LU BUSKI E

W I ELKOPOLSKI E

KUJ AW SKO-POM OR SKI E

DOLNO ŚLĄSKI E

OPOLSKI E

ŚLĄSKI EM AŁOPOLSKI E

LU BELSKI E

M AZO W I ECKI E

PO DLASKI E

PO DKAR PACKI E

W AR M I ŃSKO -M AZU R SKI EPO M OR SKI E

ŁÓDZKI E

ZACHO DNI O PO MO R SKI E

99


LONG - TERM EFFECTS LONG - TERM EFFECTS OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR

POLANDPOLAND

Improved position of

Poland on the global scene

(political and financial

credibility)

Accelerationand

strengthening of the reform

process

Influence of the Single

European Market

on the economy

(GDP growth, productivity)

Impact of the EU

funds

Improved national security and higher level and quality of life

1010


IMMEDIATE EFFECTS IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR OF EU MEMBERSHIP FOR

POLANDPOLAND

Growth in exports

of foodstuffs and

agricultural products

Reduction of duties on

35% of the volume

of imports

Changes in the level

of prices (in both

directions)

Improved consumer protection standards

Widening of educationalopportunities

Poland’s eastern border became the EU

external frontier

Gradual opening of the EU

labor market

Participation in the EU decision-making process

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National Development

Strategy

Voivodship’sdevelopment

strategies

RegionalOperationalProgrammes

International treaties and agreements.

other financial and legalinstruments

OperationalProgrammes

NSRF (executive plan)

National Operational Programmes and

RegionalOperational Programmes

sectoralstrategies

Local development

strategies

Executiveplans

Executive plans

Executiveplans

Other financial & legal instruments

Strategic Programming System Strategic Programming System in Polandin Poland

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Poland as the beneficiary Poland as the beneficiary of the EU Cohesion Policyof the EU Cohesion Policy

Poland19.3%

EU80.7%

2007-2013

For the 2004-2006 financial perspective Poland is receiving within the framework of structural assistance 12. 8 billions Euro (6% of the total EU assistance in that period).

In the period 2007-2013 Poland will have at its disposal 67.3 billion Euro for the cohesion policy, that is almost 1/5 of the total EU cohesion policy financing.

Financing of other fields will exceed 18 billion Euro. Co-financing is estimated at over 22 billion Euro. Altogether, the above-mentioned funds will reach about 108 billion Euro.

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National Development Strategy 2007-2015 (NDS) - principal strategic document which delineates objectives

and priorities of the development policy in the period 2007-2015

Main goal of the NDS

Country’s Development Directions Country’s Development Directions 2007 - 20152007 - 2015

Raise the level and the quality of life of Poland’s residents: individual citizens and families

Priorities:Priorities:1. 1. Growth of competitiveness and innovativeness of

the economy

2. Improvement of the condition of the technical and social infrastructure

3. Growth of employment and raising of its quality

4. Building an integrated social community and its safety

5. Development of rural areas

6. Regional development and improvement of the territorial cohesion

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Distribution of the UE resources among operational programmes NSRF/NCS 2007-2013 (in Euro)

NSRF = 67.3 mld EUR,Including national reserve For implementation (2% of the value of allocation)

OP European Territorial Cooperation

1,1%

Pervormance Reserve2,0%

OP Human Capital 14,4%

OP Techical Assistance 0,8%

OP Innovative Economy 12,3%

OP Infrastructure and Development

41,5%

OP Development of Eastern Poland 3,4%

16 Regional Operational Programmes

24,6%

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Programming instruments

Financing of transport Financing of transport investmentsinvestments

EU resourcesEU resources

Continuation of expenditures 2004 - 2006• Cohesion Fund 1.7 billion euro• European Regional Development Fund1,2 billion euro

New Financial Perspective 2007 - 2013

• OP Infrastructure and Environment20 billion euro

• Regional Operational Programmes 4.2 billion euro

• OP Development of Eastern Poland 1.1 billion euro

2288..22 billion euro from the EU billion euro from the EU for expenditures on the transport for expenditures on the transport

sector sector until until 20120133

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Regional Operational Programmes

Priorities

VI

Toursim

4.8%

VIII

Renewal of rural and

urban areas

5.6%

VIII

Social infrastructure

10.4%

IX

Reform of

Employment

0.1%

X

Administrative

capacties

0.2%

XI

Technical assistance

2.9%

VII

Culture

3.9%

V

Environmental

protection,

counteracting threats

10.8%

IV

Energy

2.6%

II

Information Society

7.9%

I

Research, technological

development,

innovativeness,

entrepreneurship

24.7%

III

Transport

26,1%

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million euro

Priorities of % share OP DEP

Public funds (85%

EU+15%domestic)

Community Financing

Domestic public

financing

ERDF85%

Total15%

1=2+3 2 3

I Modern Economy 47.1%

1259.03 1070.18 188.85

II. Voivodship growth canters 19.6 %

524.35 445.70 78.65

III. Transport infrastructure 30.3% 811.41 689.70 121.71

IV. Technical Assistance 3%

80.25 68.21 12.04

Total 2007-2013 100%

2 675.05 2 273.79 401.26

Operational Program Development of Eastern PolandOperational Program Development of Eastern PolandPriorPrioriitiesties

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Operational Program Human Capital Priorities

Priority(EUR) %

I. Employment and social inclusion506 189

3584.43%

II.Development of human capital and of enterprises’ adaptative potential

672 298 727

5.89%

III. High quality of the educational system1 456 236

26812.75%

IV. Higher education and science960 366

8398.41%

V. Good governance610 854

0945.35%

VI.Precaution. promotion and improvement of the health of productive age

105 713 179

0.92%

VII.Labour market open to everyone and promotion of social inclusion

3 699 705 119

32.40%

VIII.

Regional human resources of the economy1 588 479

61213.91%

IX.Development of education and competences in regions

1 103 425 446

9.66%

X. Partnership for rural areas’ development260 130

1352.28%

XI. Technical Assistance456 808

2824.00%

TOTAL:11 420

207 059100%

13% of funds for development of human capital

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MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OP Human Capital

Financial allocation within OP Human Capital

Health 0,92%

Labour market open to everyone and

promotion of social inclusion32,40%

Good governence 5,35%

Higher education and science

8,41%

High quality of the educationl system

12,75%

Adaptability 5,89%

Employment and social inclusion

4,43%

Technical Assistance 4%

Rural areas 2,28%

Education - regional 9,66%

Regional human resources of the

economy 13,91%

2020


Impact of the NSRF on the rate of Impact of the NSRF on the rate of growthgrowth

0.000.21

0.81

2.90

1.91 1.83

2.39

-1.15-0.97

-2.85

-0.82-0.63

-0.43 -0.36

1.59

0.00 0.15 0.05 0.21 0.54 0.98 1.01 1.19

1.42

0.86

0.50-0.10 -0.13 -0.15 -1.07

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HERMIN (WARR)

MaMoR2 (IBnGR)

Difference between GDP rates of growth in the NSRF scenario

and base scenario (without NSRF) expressed in percentage points

2121


Impact of the NSRF on Impact of the NSRF on unemployment rateunemployment rate

-0.13

-0.61

-3.01

-3.69

-4.46

-5.56

-4.44

-3.67

-1.85-1.48

-1.20 -1.02 -0.88

-1.50

0.00

-6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HERMIN (WARR)

Difference between unemployment rate in the NSRF - based scenario and base scenario (without NSRF) expressed in

percentage points

2222


Impact of the NSRF on the rate Impact of the NSRF on the rate of GPD growth in the period 2006-of GPD growth in the period 2006-

20202020

4.20%4.07%3.81%

3.57%

1.49%

3.30%3.08%

6.56%

5.94%5.97%

6.98%

5.62%

6.21%

5.59%

6.57%

4.55%4.50%

4.45%4.39%4.34%4.28%4.22%

4.17%4.11%4.06%4.07%4.03%

5.40%

6.57%

5.38%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Z NSRO

Bez NSRO

2323


Hypothetical GDP growth rate inPoland, with the assumption of theaverage rate based on the 2001-06

growth for the EU

Average GDPgrowth rate

in %

GDP percapitaat PPS

In EUR3.5% 5% 6.5% 8%

2001-2006 In 2005 r.Year in which of Poland reaches

respective GDP per capita level of:

EU-27 1,9 22500 2047 2027 2020 2016

EU-15 1,8 25400 2051 2030 2022 2018

Eurozone (12) 1,6 24900 2046 2028 2021 2017

Source: Date of the CSO, Eurostat, MRD calculations*) Doesn’t take into account the demographic changes and changes in the currencies’ purchasing power

Scenarios of Poland’s attainment Scenarios of Poland’s attainment

of the EU economic development of the EU economic development levellevel*)*)

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Thank you for Thank you for attentionattention

Thank you for Thank you for attentionattention

2525



P O L A N D

Ministry of Regional Ministry of Regional DevelopmentDevelopmentul. Wspólna 2/4ul. Wspólna 2/4www.mrr.gov.plwww.mrr.gov.pl

[email protected]@mrr.gov.pl

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