Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark Danida Danish Embassy in Kabul

Concept Note

Afghanistan Country Programme (ACP)

2015 – 2017

January 14, 2014

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Map of Afghanistan

Exchange Rates

Afghani (AFA): United States Dollar (USD) = 55.43

Afghani (AFA): Danish Kroner (DKK) = 10.40

DKK: USD = 0.1811

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Acronyms and Abbreviations:

AACP Afghanistan Country Programme ADF Agricultural Development Fund AGE (Danida) Afghanistan Growth and Employment Programme AIHRC Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission ANSF Afghanistan National Security Forces ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy AMP Aid Management Policy ARD Agriculture and Rural Development Cluster AREDP Afghan Rural Enterprise Development Programme ARTF Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund BSA Bilateral Security Agreement CARD-F Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development-Facility CBR Capacity Building for Results CEDAW The Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination

against Women CDC Community Development Committee CSO Civil Society Organisation Danida Danish International Development Assistance DFID Department for International Development (UK) DKK Danish Kroner ECF Extended Credit Facility ELECT Enhancing Legal and Electoral Capacity for Tomorrow ESPA Education Support Programme to Afghanistan EU European Union EVAW Elimiation of Violence Against Women EQIUP Education Quality Improvement Program FEFA Free and Fair Elections Forum of Afghanistan GIRoA Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan GDP Gross Domestic Product GPE Global Partnership for Education HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries IDLG Independent Directorate of Local Governance IEC Independent Election Commission IMF International Monetary Fund IRC International Rescue Committee ISAF International Security Assistance Force IWA Integrity Watch Afghanistan JHRA Justice and Human Rights JSDP Justice Service Delivery Programme LIC Low Income Countries LOTFA Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MEC Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation

Committee MISFA Microfinance Investment Support Facility MOE Ministry of Education

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MOF Ministry of Finance MoI Ministry of Interior MoJ Ministry of Justice MRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NESP National Education Strategic Plan NHRI National Human Rights Institution NGO Non Governmental Organisation NPP National Priority Programme NSP National Solidarity Programme OBI Open Budget Index PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PFM Public Financial Management PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team ROI Regions of Origin Initiative (Danida) SOFA Status of Force Agreement TA Technical Assistance TMAF Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework UK United Kingdom UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime UNDP United Nations Development Programme UPR (UN OHCHR) Universal Periodic Review U.S. United States of America USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States Dollars WB The World Bank Contact persons, Danish Embassy in Kabul: Anne Louise Grinsted, Development Counsellor (anngri@um.dk) Lida Homa, Economist (lidhom@um.dk )

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Contents Introduction................................................................................................................................ 1

Conclusions from preparatory analysis ................................................................................... 2

Strategic considerations and justification for the Country Programme ............................. 6

Thematic Programme Objectives and Summary ................................................................... 7

Preliminary Results Framework and monitoring mechanisms ............................................ 9

Preliminary assessment of risk ............................................................................................... 10

Indicative budget and Unallocated Funds (2015-2017) ...................................................... 10

Annex I. Process Action Plan ................................................................................................ 11

Annex II. Assessment according to the ten budget support principles ........................... 12

Annex III. HRBA/ Gender Screening Note ....................................................................... 17

Annex IV. Climate change and Green Growth screening note ........................................ 37

Annex V. Preliminary Results Framework ........................................................................... 45

Annex VI. Preliminary Risk Matrix ....................................................................................... 47

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Introduction Strategic questions to guide the discussion i) Are the overall strategic objective and three thematic programmes of the Country

Programme appropriate for the Afghan context and sufficiently aligned with the relevant Danish policies?

ii) The concept note focuses on state building as a means to rights-based poverty reduction and economic growth. Is this prioritisation appropriate or should there be an enhanced direct focus on poverty reduction?

iii) The concept note suggests increased multilaterilisation to a) mitigate fiduciary risks, and b) take into account the future capacity of the Embassy. However, this reduces the bilateral visibility of Danida. Does the Programme Committee agree with this approach?

Summary of conclusions from preparatory analysis 1. Afghanistan has witnessed decades of conflict and is one of the poorest countries in the world with concomitant low levels of human development. Poverty affects a third to half of the population, most of whom derive their livelihood from agriculture. State capacity is improving as are civil society institutions and human rights, but progress is fragile and gains achieved over the past decade need to be protected to be sustained. At this point in time, Afghanistan is facing a critical point in its development due to the upcoming elections, withdrawl of the international combat forces, continued insecurity as well as fiscal uncertainty, corruption and reduced economic growth.

2. Denmark has had a long engagement in Afghanistan both on the civil and the military side. In the past, Danish development assistance has focussed on critical areas needed to support poverty reduction and human rights. Analysis suggests that these remain very valid and have had positive results. A continuation of these priorities provides the basis for the programme. The Country Programme will therefore sustain the current Danish development assistance from 2015 to 2017. Building on the strategic focus areas outlined in the current Danish Afghanistan Plan 2013-20141 and the Danish strategy for development cooperation, “The Right to a Better Life”, the proposed overall strategic objective of the Country Programme therefore is: To assist the Afghan Government and civil society in developing an effective democratic, transparent and accountable state which enjoys the support of its people and promotes human rights with a particular emphasis on strengthening education for all and growth and employment.

3. To implement this objective, the Country Programme is structured around three thematic programmes supporting Governance, Democracy and Human Rights; Education and Growth and Employment. These areas are aligned with Afghan national priorities, the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework and in line with the principles of the New Deal for Fragile States. The thematic programmes will contribute to promotion of human rights, with a particular focus on women’s rights, and poverty reduction, either directly or by helping create enabling conditions for it. Building a legitimate state that enjoys the trust of its citizens is a pre-requisite for poverty reduction and economic growth. Governance and human rights provide key enablers that reach out to all sectors and will increase performance in education and growth.

1 The themes outlined in the current Afghanistan Plan include governance, democracy and human rights, education and livelihoods as stragetic focus areas for Danish development assistance to Afghanistan. These are expected to be continued as focus areas in the successor strategy for Afghanistan that will be developed during 2014.

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4. Because of the fragile context, there are major risks to the programme which need to be managed in close coordination with the government and development partners. However, the level of risk is in line with the Danish approach to working in fragile states and the risk of disengagement is worse. The analysis of three possible scenarios suggests that it is most likely that the context will remain as the status quo and the programming will proceed based on this assumption. Should the context change dramatically during the next year in a way that requires the Country Programme to be adjusted, the Embassy will notify the Programme Committee before submitting the Country Programme to the External Grant Committee.

Conclusions from preparatory analysis Country context 5. Afghanistan’s development progress since 2001 has been mixed. Afghanistan has made progress against a variety of important political, economic and development parameters since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001. There has been significant progress made in terms of access to health and education services, albeit from a very low base. The country has also enjoyed relatively high economic growth until 2012. Agriculture has been, and is expected to continue to be, the primary driver of growth. Key social indicators, such as life expectancy and maternal mortality, have improved. There have also been improvements in human rights, including women’s rights.2

6. Violence and insecurity coupled with deep-rooted governance shortcomings and low social development continue to act as a deterrent to the country's development. Insecurity, unemployment, weak rule of law, corruption, impunity, a pervasive trade in opium and insufficient ability to protect the civilian population and their basic human rights (civilian and political as well as economic, social and cultural) are frequently cited as major concerns.3

7. Afghanistan remains one of the world’s poorest nations with around 36% of the population living under the poverty line and a per capita gross domestic product of USD 687 in 2012. Poverty is most acute in rural areas. The number of internally displaced as a result of the conflict was estimated at 584,000 in July 2013.4

8. At the Chicago Summit in May 2012, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) countries committed themselves to supporting the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) in the future. As part of this, a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between the Afghan government and the U.S. has been prepared, but not yet signed. The BSA is required to provide a basis for the continued military support to Afghanistan from U.S. and NATO forces beyond 2014. If the BSA is not signed, it will markably change the context in which Denmark and international partners are operating, including in terms of security. Therefore, a signed BSA and a NATO Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) are prerequisites for normalisation of Danish development assistance.

9. In relation to democracy, the next series of elections, comprising presidential and provincial council (2014) and parliamentary (2015), are absolutely critical to the transition process and the period thereafter. The election preparations are proceeding positively but even in the best case, they will lead to considerable uncertainty and, at least a temporary, a decline in capacity and government performance as the new administration establishes itself.

2 Afghanistan in Transition, Looking beyond 2014. World Bank. 2013. 3 Afghanistan in 2013: A survey of the Afghan people. The Asia Foundation. December 2013. 4 UNSG report on the situation in Afghanistan, 6 September 2013.

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10. The governance area has seen a substantive focus on developing the capacity of the Afghan Government at central and, to a lesser extent, at sub-national levels. Real progress in the governance area requires increasing service delivery beyond urban areas and dealing with politicisation, corruption and impunity that undermines government effectiveness. Afghanistan is ranked by the 2013 Transparency International index as the most corrupt country in the world.5

11. Concerns have been highlighted regarding the fiscal sustainability of state structures that have been heavily supported by international assistance – especially the army and police, but also the civil service in general. External funding and foreign investment is expected to decline in the medium term. The World Bank notes that the level of public spending financed by aid flows will be fiscally unsustainable if donor funds decline.

12. Substantial improvement is required before Afghanistan has satisfactory standards of law enforcement, access to justice, and human rights protection, where people, both women and men, have confidence in the system. Human rights defenders highlight that there is a lack of protection mechanisms and effective remedies for victims of human rights abuse.6

13. Based on this analysis three scenarios for delivering Danish development assistance has been identified.

14. i) Positive political and development trajectory. This is essentially the objective of the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework7 (TMAF) and one that meets the national development targets in terms of a constructive development context and progress in relation to governance, human rights, security and key areas of service delivery (education, health) as well as providing foundations for growth and greater self-reliance. This scenario is based on an assumption that the BSA will be signed quickly. The overall development gains will be slow but steady, gradually gaining momentum and solidity. The elections pass off well and will quickly provide a legitimate government with a mandate and willingness to promote political and social development that is generally in line with international norms. A consequence of this will be further Afghan leadership and ownership of the development process (which at times may conflict with development partners’ own priorities). With signs of government commitment and a new administration in place, donors also remain committed. Although aid levels decline in overall terms and corruption continues to be a challenge, development benefits, continued moderate growth, and improved security are able to offset the effects of this. In this scenario, the multilateralisation of aid will continue (and increase pace).

15. ii) Status quo. This is essentially the current situation where the modest gains being made are maintained. The 2014 elections are judged acceptable and the new government is formed within reasonable time and is interested in cooperation with Development Partners, incl. the UN on the basis of TMAF. The BSA is signed either before or shortly following the elections. Security remains unstable, meaning local insecurity and causing problems of access. The new administration seeks to increase Afghan ownership of development processes. The most serious challenges are insecurity (which is area specific), the effects of lower growth, rampant corruption, lack of access to justice, and effectiveness imbalances within the Afghan administration. The key positive here is the emergence of a new administration with a relatively strong mandate which provides some optimism and a basis

5 On par with North Korea and Somalia. 6 Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, Strategic Plan. AIHRC. February 2010. 7 http://www.thekabulprocess.gov.af/index.php/tokyo-framework/tokyo-framework.

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for continued cooperation with the international community. In this scenario, it will be possible to maintain the TMAF commitments and the range of development interventions currently foreseen, although, as now, progress will be uneven. There will be further development of the multilateral on-budget aid modalities with increasing Afghan ownership and role in decision-making. As capacity is lacking, especially outside of Kabul, it will be essential to ensure adequate risk management, requiring innovative approaches to monitoring due to the continuing problems of access. Donors will continue to streamline and multilateralise their support provided the multilateral bodies are able to demonstrate effective programmes.

16. iii) Negative political and development trajectory. This is essentially the worst case where a range of negative outcomes from an unsatisfactory and disputed election in 2014 coupled with the withdrawal of ISAF combat forces by end of 2014 increase uncertainty and insecurity. The situation could partly be a consequence of a non-signature of the BSA. The situation progressively worsens, threatening a de facto split up of the country and, as it does so, security and human rights issues, institutionalised corruption and rent seeking, lower than expected growth, and political infighting lead to a loss of donor confidence and partial withdrawal. The humanitarian situation also deteriorates. In this scenario, it is difficult to continue with progressive development programmes and there is a refocusing away from government-led initiatives to NGOs, which further damages the response to the Tokyo commitments. The weaknesses in governance will be exploited by a variety of spoilers, including warlords and organised crime, for whom instability and a lack of consensus provides them with opportunity. As the security situation deteriorates and access and service delivery become more difficult, aid will become more humanitarian and short term in nature. In this case, the Embassy would need to reconsider whether the current programming is appropriate and effective.

17. The most likely scenario is the one of status quo and a continuation of the current variable performance. The 2014 elections are likely to lead to hiatus in central government leadership as the new administration gets up to speed and some uncertainty is to be expected. However, it is to be expected in this scenario that the new Afghan government will live up to the TMAF commitments, but progress will be uneven.

Human Rights-Based Approach 18. The development of the Country Programme will emphasize a human rights-based approach (HRBA) applying the guiding principles, i.e. Participation, Accountability, Non-discrimination and Transparency. For further HRBA-considerations, see annex 3. HRBA can be operationalized by ensuring a triple-track approach that (a) supports both rights holders and duty bearers in relation to the various areas of support, (b) strengthens the Afghan Human Rights mechanisms and ensures independent monitoring, and (c) targets distinct areas of human rights deficiency (for example, education, access to justice, rule of law and business (by applying the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights) – in all of which special attention must be given to the rights of women and girls).

Synergies 19. The Country Programme allows for important synergies across the three thematic areas. A large part of the Danish support will be channelled through the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) administered by the World Bank. About half of the government’s operating budget and two thirds of the development budget is funded by aid and the ARTF is for many donors the vehicle of choice for on-budget funding. As the ARTF supports a number of key public sector reforms and capacity building of the public

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sector as well as public financial management reforms, funding of the ARTF provides increased public sector capacity that is synergetic across the three thematic programmes of the country programme. The ARTF has a gender working group through which Denmark will promote integration and mainstreaming of gender issues including women’s rigths in the activities of the ARTF. The governance thematic programme supports a number of cross-cutting interventions that underpin the engagements in education and growth for example by supporting anti-corruption watch dogs, human rights and elections. Particular emphasis will be on promoting the rights of women through the governance interventions.

20. Synergies also exist from the Growth and Employment programme to the governance programme, in that it will promote Human Rights in the business and agriculture sector by integration of the UN Guiding Principles for Business and Human Rights. Further, skills development and improving technical education in agriculture are parts of the approach to growth and employment in order to enhance the agriculture value-chain and thereby synergies exist with the education programme.

Lessons learnt 21. Denmark’s support to Afghanistan in the period 2001 to 2012 was the subject of an external evaluation study which concluded that support was relevant to Danish and Afghan policies and that support to multi-donor projects have kept administrative costs low while meeting commitments under the Paris Declaration/Busan Global Partnership, the New Deal for Fragile States and the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS). None of the programmes that Denmark supports would be able to function without external financing and programmes are still very dependent on donor funding.

22. Improving governance is recognized as one of the major challenges for Afghanistan. International experience shows that building legitimate institutions that provide citizen security, justice and jobs are necessary to break cycles of insecurity and reduce the risk of their recurrence. Afghanistan’s transition process requires continued improvements within the governance area including the electoral process, and human rights protection based on the HRBA principles of Participation, Accountability, Non-discrimination and Transparency, rule of law and access to justice. Adressing political instability, weak rule of law, corruption and low government effectiveness at central and local levels have therefore been identified as critical areas to support in order to promote equitable and inclusive development that fosters poverty reduction, strengthens human rights and promotes participation and democracy. The current and past governance portfolio has been supporting a relatively large number of individual interventions. While all of these have been relevant to the Afghan context and priorities, the transaction costs in terms of management has been high. At the same time, the portfolio has not been as strategic as it could have been. The Country Programme will therefore continue the lean approach already under implementation and limit the number of interventions as well as sharpen the strategic rationale behind the selected interventions. This will include increased support to multi-donor funded programmes such as the civil society trust fund, Tawanmandi, and the ARTF.

23. Denmark has provided support to the education sector in Afghanistan since 2003 with an emphasis on primary education. Genereally, there has been improvement in enrolment, particularly for girls. The experience is that the education sector generally faces difficulties in achieving execution targets and executing budgeted activities and annual work plans. It is likely that there will be a large portion of unspent funds at the end of the current programme. The Ministry of Education is visibly challenged by the expected level of management of the programme and supervison, monitoring and reporting needs to be

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improved. Donor collaboration is at a remarkably low level and although coordination forums and groups are established, they are not effective. The strong focus on capacity building in the sector including support to international and national advisors at both central and subnational level. One consequence of this is that a large part of the capacity of the Ministry of Education depends on the use of technical assistance (TA) and much work lies ahead in achieving the agreed conversion of these positions into regular government Tashkeel (civil servant) staff.

24. Agriculture will remain a key driver of economic growth and employment in Afghanistan. In the area of Growth and Employment, Denmark’s support to the sector has mostly been focused in Helmand Province as part of an effort to develop a market driven private sector value-chain approach. Some of the key lessons learned are that providing support to input and credit suppliers, farmers, processors and traders along prioritised existing licit value chains can generate employment, stimulate growth and leverage in private sector investment; and that support should be directed at the needs of the sector and the private sector through a market-driven approach. These lessons have informed the growth and employment thematic programme which will support job creation and econonomic growth in the agriculture sector.

Strategic considerations and justification for the Country Programme 25. The Danish efforts in Afghanistan currently comprise both military support and development assistance. The Danish Afghanistan Plan 2013-2014 foresees that Denmark will gradually move to a normalisation of the development assistance to Afghanistan, which is seen as a necessary step to promote a sustainable development process and to support the Afghan government in achieving its goal of self-reliance. The Country Programme is therefore a continued, but adapted Danish development engagement in Afghanistan in line with Danish international commitments (incl. TMAF and the New Deal) and the Afghan-Danish Strategic Partnership Agreement8. It is closely aligned with Afghan national strategies and priorities. By moving to a multi-year country programme there will be benefits for Denmark as well as for Afghanistan. A country programme is a more comprehensive approach that will enable synergies to be exploited across the thematic programmes.

26. The Country Programme countributes to focussing and leaning of the portfolio in line with Danish priorities. The lean approach will be implemented by increasing multilateralisation e.g. by working through multidonor trust funds, and with emphasis on reducing the number of individual engagements. Further, it will increase flexibility within the portfolio allowing Denmark to respond to changing needs and context as well as allowing for more predictability and transparency for the Afghan government. The Country Programme is proposed to be adjusted vis-à-vis the Danida Aid Management Guidelines to be a three-year programme rather than the normal five-year time horizon, and with more frequent reviews to allow Denmark to respond to changing circumstances. This is needed as the political and security situation are evolving.

27. No development partners currently provide neither general nor sector budget support. The response to the increased need for harmonisation, alignment and on-budget support is articulated in progressively aligning to the Afghan National Priority Programmes and by channelling funding through on-budget trust funds, such as the ARTF9.

8 http://afghanistan.um.dk/en/~/media/Afghanistan/Documents/Strategic%20Partnership%20Agreement.pdf 9 Note that in Afghanistan, on-budget support is not strictly budget support in the normal interpretation.

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Thematic Programme Objectives and Summary

Governance, Democracy and Human Rights 28. Support to Governance, Democracy and Human Rights is critical as they are key areas where progress will underpin all other engagements (e.g. by facilitating greater and more responsive service delivery and by countering corruption). The objective of this programme is: To strengthen the institutional, organizational, administrative and individual capacities of the State and civil society at both central and local levels to enable more efficient and effective service delivery with increased transparency and accountability, and promote human rights and justice for all Afghans.

29. To fulfil this objective, the programme will extend a focus on developing the capacity of the Afghan Government at central and sub-national levels as well as identifying and supporting rights holders among the civil society. The programme will pay particular attention to promoting women’s rights. The Programme is relevant in terms of the national context and responds to Danish and Afghan priorities and policies. By increasing multilateralisation and use of trust funds, the programme will be more effective and lean and thereby responding to needs for alignment and harmonisation. The thematic programme is structured to both improve the capacity of the state in its role as a duty-bearer as well as supporting civil society, oversight and accountability mechanisms that enhance the ability of rights-holders to know and claim their rights.

30. By supporting the ARTF, Denmark will support the Afghan government to reduce poverty and promote economic growth through supporting capacity building of public sector institutions and public financial management of the government so that it can improve equitable service delivery in core areas including health and education and access to justice.

31. At the same time, there is a need to strengthen public accountability and transparency as well as anti-corruption efforts that promote government effectiveness and credibility. The Independent Joint Anti-corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (MEC) holds the government and the international community accountable and transparent. In addition, the Embassy will consider further strengthening its anti-corruption interventions by supporting anti-corruption organisations.

32. Sub-National Governance is essential in order to strengthen the linkages between government (as duty-bearers) and citizens (as right-holders), and to reduce inequality as well as to ensure equitable and inclusive delivery of quality social services across the country. Denmark has substantive experience from this in the past and will use this to further explore support to decentralisation during the formulation phase.

33. To ensure robust protection, monitioring, investigation and advocacy of human rights, Denmark will continue providing core support to the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC). Furthermore, civil society plays a major role in supporting rights-holders with regard to promoting the principles of transparency, accountability, non-discrimination and participation. Denmark will continue supporting CSOs through Tawanmandi which is a multidonor-funded umbrealla programme that support CSOs in focus areas relavant to the strategic objectives of the country programme.

34. In relation to democratisation, the coming series of presidential, parliamentary and provincial council elections starting in 2014 must be well managed and perceived by the population as free and fair. The Danish support will be a two-fold approach supporting the actual conduction of the elections (UNDP ELECT II) while simultaneously supporting the

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monitoring of the electrol process, transparency in the parliament and promotion of the participation of women and youth (through FEFA).

35. Inspite of some progress, there is a lack of confidence on the justice system of Afghanistan including the judiciary and hence people rarely refer to the courts of law (mostly at the sub-national level) to seek justice. Danish support to rule of law/access to justice would be highly relevant to the overall Danish and Afghan priorities as well as to the context. How to strengthen the Danish engagement in this area will be explored during the formulation phase including how to build complementarity and synergies with Danish funding from the Peace and Stabilisation Frame.

Education 36. Education is critical to reducing poverty and promoting economic growth. Education gives access to employment, social and democratic inclusion and promotes gender equality. Education also builds human capacity and promotes sustainable and viable economic growth10.

37. Throughout the last ten years of Danish support to education, student enrollment has increased rapidly, but is still at a low level and substantial barriers to access education remain. Insecurity, lack of schools and adequate teaching facilities, lack of qualified teachers and learning material, as well as cultural beliefs continue to be key challenges. The combination of low school enrollment rates and continued high population growth indicates that there is a need to substantially increase investment in education over the coming years in order to achieve its ‘access’ goals. Education therefore remains a highly relevant sector for Denmark.

38. The objective of the thematic programme on education is: To promote equal access to quality education for all Afghans regardless of gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status or religious affiliation thereby enabling them to develop their knowledge and skills and maximize their potential.

39. The future support to the education sector will promote the Afghanistan third National Education Strategic Plan for 2014-2020 (NESP) and support efforts to achieve the Education for All Millennium Development Goals by 2020. Denmark will aim to actively support education for girls.

40. To do this, the thematic programme will be structured around a three-pronged approach that aims to sustain the gains made in the long bilateral engagement Denmark has had through the current bilateral Danish Education Support to Afghanstan Programme, (ESPA II). Because the significant fiduciary and management risks associated with the current bilateral programme as well as the lean approach and taking into account the future staffing of the Embassy, the main thrust of the thematic programme will be a gradual shift towards mulitilateralisation of the support to education. Denmark will seek to integrate activities currently funded by ESPA with the World Bank’s Education Quality Improvement Program (EQUIP). A number of important challenges need to be taken into account in this process. Particularly, support to textbooks, technical and vocational education and support to monitoring and evaluation are three areas currently supported bilaterally by Denmark, but not by EQUIP. During the formulation and appraisal phase, there is therefore a need to identify options for bridging the transition between bilateral and multilateral assistance in a way that ensures the sustainability of these activities. The finalisation of the current EQUIP II during 2015 and the formulation of designing the EQUIP III provide an opportuinity to

10 Glocal Partnership for Education: http://www.globalpartnership.org/who-we-are/the-value-of-education/

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seek integration of the common ESPA/EQUIP elements into the EQUIP III as well as solutions to a sustainable bridging and integration of other key activities.

41. The current high amount of Technical Assistance (TA) within the Ministry of Education is a challenge in both the ESPA, the Global Partnership for Education and within EQUIP. While it is recognised that the Ministry is currently unable to carry out its activities without the use of TAs, there is a need to incorporate an effective exit strategy to effectively reduce the use of TAs in any future engagement in the education sector in Afghanistan. The education thematic programme will thefore continue to support technical assistance bilaterally during a period, but with a view to gradually and sustainably reduce (phase out) the bilateral TA to the education sector.

42. As a complementing activity there is an increasing demand to support Community Based Education (CBE) which addresses the lack of access to education in the distant areas of Afghanistan, where government schools are unable to embrace. CBE activities are carried out by different NGO’s, but are coordinated with the Ministry of Education. CBE generally promotes the objectives of NESP and Education for All and a dialogue will be initiated with relevant organisations on how Denmark can support CBE activities.

Growth and Employment 43. Economic growth and job creation are central to the development and long-term security of Afghanistan 11 . Agriculture will be the key driver of growth and poverty reduction. Increasing agricultural productivity and market access is critical for rural development, job creation and food security in Afghanistan and there is evidence that economic growth – particularly private sector growth in the rural economy - helps to underpin security by providing positive incentives for the wider population to reject violent and unlawful activity that undermines business. Including women in economic activities is key in improving the gender balance and the position of women in Afghanistan.The strategic objective of the thematic progamme therefore is: To improve sustainable agriculture production and productivity and increase on and off-farm enterprises, contributing to food security, inclusive economic growth and reduced dependency of subsistence and marginal farmers and labourers on narcotic crops.

44. The Growth and Employment thematic programme will support the Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development Facility (CARD-F) and the Agriculture Development Fund (ADF), which are two of the key interventions in the sector. This thematic programme has been formulated ahead of the other thematic programmes, but is part of the overall Country Programme. The programme is designed to be effective and lean, and is highly relevant in terms of responding to the need for sustainable economic growth and job creation in Afghanistan. Specific attention will be given to initiatives supporting the economic participation of women under the two programmes.

Preliminary Results Framework and monitoring mechanisms 45. Indicators for the Country Programme will be, to the extent possible, derived from national monitoring plans. In some cases it indicators will be derived from the partner organisation (e.g. from partner CSOs or multidonor trust funds). The results framework will provide an overview of objectives and key indicators for the Country Programme. It will be

11 See the World Bank’s Transition in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond 2014, and, their 2011, 2013 and 2014 World Development Reports on Conflicts, Security and Development, Jobs and Risk and Opportunity, respectively.

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a priority during formulation to align to partners’ results frameworks and at the same time adhere to the Danida Aid Management Guidelines.

Preliminary assessment of risk 46. Development assistance in Afghanistan today is a high-risk undertaking given the volatile security situation, the uncertainty about the outcomes of the upcoming elections in 2014 and 2015. Severe decline in the political system and the national security may affect the Embassy's ability to operate at the current level. Weaknesses in budget execution, public financial management, service delivery and corruption are also risks to the programme. The risk profile for the programme is therefore high, with security, political and fiscal risks being the key challenges. As the current risk environment is already high, though, a significant worsening compared to today (the most likely scenario) is unlikely. However, in the worst case scenario, the risks would increase dramatically and that would impact the implementation of the Programme. Because of insecurity, access to field monitoring is a concern. Increased multilateralisation will contribute to mitigating fiduciary risks and promote improved monitoring and oversight, as the multilateral organisations have more resources to manage fiduciary risks and to provide oversight than bilateral donors. Denmark is supporting the establishment of a common UN-system Risk Management Unit and will continue to prioritise monitoring and risk management in the Country Programme. The risk environment is in line with Denmark's “Integrated Stabilisation Engagement in Fragile and Conflict-affected areas of the World”. The Danida Risk Management Tool constitutes the basis of the risk assessment that will be further developed during the formulation phase. The the Risk Management Matrix will be reviewed an updated regularly.

Indicative budget and Unallocated Funds (2015-2017) Budget by thematic engagement (Million DKK)

Year/Component (2014) 2015 2016 2017 Total

Good Governance, Democracy and Human Rights 138 138 139 415

- Transparent and accountable Public Sector Mgt* 89.5 94.5 95.5 279.5

- Democracy and Human Rights** 40 35 35 110

- Technical Assistance 2 2 2 6

- Reviews etc. 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.5

- Unallocated 5 5 5 15

Education*** 100 100 100 300

Growth and Employment

(80) 90 90 110 290

- Card-F (39.8) 48.9 32.3 65.9 147.2

- ADF (37.0) 37.0 28.0 40.0 105

- Technical Assistance (1.7) 2.6 2.2 2.6 7.4

- Reviews etc. (1.5) 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.5

- Unallocated 26 26

Local Grant Authority 5 5 5 15

Total (80) 333 333 354 1020

* Includes ARFT, MEC and possibly IWA and SNG; ** Includes ELECT, FEFA, Tawanmandi and AIHRC;*** The budget for education will be developed during the formulation and appraisal phase.

47. For each thematic programme a margin will be allocated as unallocated funds and for technical assistance. This will allow for flexibility within each of the thematic programmes as well as for the overall programme. The Local Grant Authority is at the discretionary use for the Embassy and will be programmed for smaller activities that support the strategic objective of the Country Programme outside of the thematic programmes.

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Annex I. Process Action Plan Time line

Country Programme Documentation

September 2013 Planning of design and formulation. Process Action Plan

Process Action Plan for Country Programme development up to signing of commitments.

October 2013 Analysis started Synopsis (internal) prepared by Embassy and discussed with Copenhagen;

December 2013 Drafting Concept note and annexes Draft Concept Note

January 2014 Public consultation of Concept note. Forward Concept note to KVA 14 January (3 weeks in advance of meeting in Danida Programme Committee)

Concept note with annexes

February 2014 Meeting in Danida Programme Committee February 6th.

Concept note and annexes. List of received responses from the consultation and summery conclusions from Danida Programme Committee.

ToR for appraisal forwarded to TAS ToR

March 2014 Development of Country programme Document and Development engagement Documents

April 2014 All draft documentation for Country programme forwarded to TAS

Draft Country Programme Document incl. Development engagement Documents and associated partner documentation

May 2014 Country Programme appraised by TAS

July 2014 Appraisal process finalized Appraisal Report, recommendations summary

August 2014 Country Programme Document with appropriation cover sheet forwarded to KVA

Country programme Document, annexes and Development engagement Documents

September 2014 Presentation to the Danida External Grant Committee

October 2014 The minister approves the Country programme Resumé from Danida External Grant Committee

After Minister’s approval

If direct legal basis for the commitment is not in place at Finance Act: Presentation to the Parliamentary Finance Committee

Document for Finance Committee (Aktstykke)

After Minister’s approval

Signing of legally binding agreements (commitments) with partner(s)

Government-to-government agreement(s) and/or other legally binding agreements

After agreement(s) are signed

Book commitment in MFA’s financial systems within budgeted quarter.

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Annex II. Assessment according to the ten budget support principles 1. Assessment according to the five criteria at country level The five criteria to be assessed at country level:

Criterion Comments

1. Fundamental values Afghanistan’s government policy towards human rights is broadly favourable in terms of de jure protection of basic human rights. Major human rights treaties have been signed and ratified, but signature of a number of additional protocols (OP.Pro. ICESCR 2008, OP.Pro.ICCPR 1966, OP.Pro.CEDAW 1999, OP.Pro.CAT 2002, OP. Pro.CRC 2011, 2nd OP.Pro. CRC 1989) could strengthen the international legal human rights obligations. However, there is a significant gap between human rights promotion and protection de jure and de facto which is confirmed by e.g. the UPR 2009 and the CEDAW Periodic Report 2011. Gender inequalities are deeply rooted in Afghan society and culture. The government has taken steps to promote legislation to protect and promote the rights of women incl. the Elimination of Violence Against Women Law (EVAW) as well as other major pieces of legislation, which are approved by Presidential Decree. However, while these are still laws in their own right, the lack of adoption by the parliament shows that there is a gap between the intentions of government policy and the more traditional Parliament. An Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) established in 2002 which is constitutionally mandated to promote, protect and monitor human rights and investigate cases of human rights abuses. However, there is widespread concern that there has been political intervention in the nomination of commissioners in 2013 and the lack of government commitment to sustainable financing of AIHRC. The constitution of 2004 provide the basis for a pluralistic democracy and two rounds of both Presidential and Parliamentary elections have been held since which were broadly assessed to be relatively free and fair.

While there is an overall commitment to adhere to international human rights standards in principle, the overall conclusion is that there is a lack of political commitment to the implementation in practice and the values are further contested by the insurgency. There continue to be serious human rights concerns in Afghanistan, and the country programme therefore has a strong emphasis on promotion and protection of human rights.

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The legal framework for an independent judiciary is in place, but widespread concern exists in terms of political interference with appointments and decisions. Rule of law is generally weak and hamper progress in a number of areas. Progress in democracy, human rights and access to justice is further exacerbated by pervasive corruption that undermines transparency of elections, democracy and access to justice, insecurity, lack of awareness of basic human rights and shortfall of judicial service delivery – particularly at the subnational level.

2. Solid national policies and plans for poverty reduction, good governance and sustainable development. Afghanistan’s National Development Strategy (ANDS) serves as the long term strategic roadmap towards poverty reduction. The ANDS was endorsed by the Government and the Donors in 2008 and serves as the Government’s vision for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The ANDS is considered the Poverty Reduction Strategy of Afghanistan. To operationalize the ANDS, the Government of Afghanistan committed to development and implementation of the Afghanistan National Priority Programs (NPPs) of which 22 has been prepared. Of the 22 NPPs all except for the Governance NPP2 – National Transparency and Accountability Program, have been endorsed. Some of these NPPs are actively being implemented. However, implementation of all the NPPs is largely limited by financial and capacity gaps within the public sector. The Government of Afghanistan has committed itself to reforms and capacity building programs that will improve the financial system and the capacity of the public sector to implement these programs – thus, paving the way for increased on-budget in the short to medium term and sector and/or general budget support in the medium to long term. The Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework (TMAF) lays down the mutual partnership between

Afghanistan does possess a solid policy basis at high level, while the NPPs vary in quality. Additionally, many NPPS are not fully funded and still represent more of a wish list than a prioritized implementation plan. While the NPP2 on governance and accountability has not been endorsed by the international community, the NPP itself is sound. However, delivery against some critical TMAF deliverables including effective tackling of the Kabul Bank issue and corruption issues in general, and registration and verification of assets of the high ranking government officials is concerning. In terms of the partnership between the Afghan government and the development partners, there is a strong partnership in terms of policy and technical dialogue.

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the Afghan government and its development partners, including mutual commitments and monitoring structures. The partnership is further detailed in a recent Aid Management Policy. TMAF includes sets of deliverables for both the Government and the International Community to be delivered by 2014.

3. Stable macro-economic framework. During the decade 2002-2012, Afghanistan experienced steady to high growth rates of an average 9.3%. In 2012 alone, the country grew at 12%. Also during this period, revenue collection increased from almost zero to about 11% of GDP, inflation was contained at below 10% and exports increased slowly but steadily, albeit from a low starting point. However, as the country moves from transition to transformation decade and with the upcoming elections and uncertainty surrounding security situation in Afghanistan post 2014, the economic stability of the country has deteriorated. As a result of uncertainty and concerns for increased insecurity, withdrawl of foreign forces, and a reduction in aid levels, GDP growth is expected to drop to 3.1% in 2013 and is expected to remain at the same level during 2014-15. Revenue collection has also decreased by 11% compared to 2012 mainly due to reduction in customs revenues. Currently, inflation is reported to be contained; however, the local currency has depreciated which in the future may have an effect on inflation given that the country is largely dependent on imports of most goods including basic food items. Afghanistan has a major fiscal deficit that is financed by international financial grant assistance and concessional borrowing. Afghanistan has committed not to incur new non-concessional borrowing in its agreement with the IMF on the ECF. HIPC completion was achieved in 2010 and there are ongoing discussions on further debt-relief with Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors. However, the fiscal gap is projected to remain significant and unsustainable without sustained

Conclusion: the overall macro-economic framework is relatively stable for now, but the growth-base is narrow and there is a heavy reliance on external funding. Significant risks, including the costs of the security sector, exists which threaten fiscal sustainability and stability. There is a certain risk that fiscal challenges translate into macro-economic instability.

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international support. Key drivers of growth have in the past been related to the presence of the international community and the agricultural sector. As the transition moves forward and the draw down advances, there will be less growth in domestic construction and services. Agriculture will remain a driver of growth. There is potential for extractive industries to drive growth in the future, but mining revenues will not materialise in significant ways in the short or medium term. The illicit economy and drug economy are substantial.

4. Public financial management According to the recent Public Expenditure and Financial Assessment Report by the World Bank, overall Afghanistan’s Public Expenditure and Financial Management system is relatively good. Comparison of data from Afghanistan with that of Fragile States, Lower Income Countries and Middle Income Countries, shows that Afghanistan is ahead of all these country sets in predictability and control in budget execution and external scrutiny and audit. Moreover, Afghanistan has performed better than Fragile States and LICs in comprehensiveness and transparency of budget. The budget execution rate at ministry, programme and local levels are very slow and low disbursement levels are common. However, in spite of this Afghanistan remains one of the most corrupt countries in the world according to Transparency Internation. Concerns of corruption in human resources and procurement are significant. Currently, it is assessed that most of the large scale corruption concerns off-budget funds, but the World Bank estimates, that this is likely to change as the off-budget funds diminish. Small-scale corruption affects most ordinary people’s dealings with the public sector.

Conclusion: While the public financial management system is strong in terms of assessments, there many are weaknesses and while the Ministry of Finance manages the PFM process well, sector ministries and provinces are lagging behind the progress. Significant risk management and monitoring will be needed.

5. Transparency and oversight of the budget According to the 2012 Open Budget Survey, Afghanistan is the second greatest improver out of 100 countries in Budget Transparency. Afghanistan’s budget transparency score improved from 8 in 2008

Conclusion: The Afghan budget process is quite transparent and it rates higher than many peers. However, while there may

16

to 21 in 2010 to 59 in 2012. This has helped the country to move from 73rd position in 2010 to 26th position in 2012 among the 100 countries. However, the OBI mainly focuses on transparency leading to the budget formulation and does not take into consideration transparency of budget after its approval and during its execution. Direct engagement with the Government stakeholders suggests that there are shortcomings in transparency and control measures during the budget execution processes. The internal audits and audits carried out by the Control and Audit Office are mainly quantitative and fail to clearly identify what was spent on what, how and with what effect. Furthermore, the country has major capacity shortfalls in implementing the development budget. None of the government institutions have been able to implement 100% of their development budget with many spending less than 50%.

be ex-ante transparency, there is a high degree of deviation with ex-post implementation which is not part of the PEFA and Open Budget Survey. In terms of budget oversight and this detracts from the otherwise positive assessment of the transparency of the completed budget cycle.

The Danish Mission’s conclusion While therenis an overall commitment to adhere to international human rights standards in principle, national policies and a poverty reduction strategy are in place and even though the country has achieved noticeable improvements in Public Financial Management, accountability and transparency of budget, there are still transparency and capacity challenges that the country has to overcome before it is ready for budget support. General budget support is neither requested by the Government of nor have other donors considered it at the moment. General budget support is not assessed to be feasible. With reference to sector budget, a number of donors, including Denmark, have considered the possibility and believe that the country is on the right track to achieving the prerequisites for sector budget support in the medium term, but in the immediate future it is not recommended.

2. Assessment according to relevant criteria at sector/thematic level is not relevant

as no sector budget support is proposed.

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Annex III. HRBA/ Gender Screening Note

Tool for Human Rights Based Approach (HRBA) and Gender Equality Screening

Purpose: The HRBA and Gender Screening Note complement the HRBA Guidance Note and the up-coming Gender Equality Strategy and the Gender Equality Toolbox. The purpose of the note is to facilitate and strengthen the application of the Human Rights Based Approach and mainstreaming of gender equality programming related to Danish development cooperation. It can be used as an inspirational checklist by all staff.

The information in the note should be based on the analysis undertaken as part of the preparation of the Country policy paper and should draw on major Human Rights and gender equality analysis relevant for the country such as UPR-processes, reports and documents from OHCHR, EU HR Strategy, CEDAW-reporting as well as relevant analysis prepared by other major donors. The Screening Note should be attached to the country programme concept note, and the questions raised below should be reflected in the country programme document. Appraisal of country programmes will include a specific focus on HRBA and Gender Equality.

Basic info

Title Afghanistan Adjusted Country Programme

Country/ region

Afghanistan

Budget in DKK mio.

1020

Starting date and duration

1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017

Human Rights Based Approach

Assess whether a Human Rights (HR) Based Approach has been applied in the programme:

Human Rights Assessment and Standards

Issues: yes

no Explain:

Have major HR analysis relevant for the country been consulted (UPR, OHCHR, EU HR Strategy, other relevant donor documents)

☒ ☐

The Afghan Constitution (2004: Preamble 5 and Article 7) obliges the GIRoA to observe the UN Charter; International Treaties, International Conventions that Afghanistan is party to, and the Universal Declaration of

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Human Rights. Afghanistan has singed and ratified all major International Covenants such as International Covenants Economic, Social and Cultural Rights; Civil and Political Rights the Rights of the Child; Elimination of All Forms of Descrimination and Against Women; Convention against Torture, Rights of Person with Disability and etc. Although ratification of these is in place, domestication and reporting is not uniform. Civil society is an active advocate of human rights protection and capacity building. The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) is a constitutionally mandated body seeking to promote and monitor human rights standards and improvements. GIRoA has also included human rights benchmarks within the priorities highlighted through the ANDS, particularly through the governance, rule of law and human rights pillar (Pillar 2). The most recent UPR reported in February 2009 and particularly highlighted the issue of continued efforts to harmonise domestic legislation with international human rights standards. An inter-ministerial Task Force, chaired by the Afghan Ministry of Justice, established with the technical assistance from the UNDP Justice and Human Rights Project for Afghanistan, is implementing the recommendations of UPR (20 July 2009 Page 14-24), issues related to the Initial Report on Rights of the Child (2009) and the Combined Initial and second report of Afghanistan to CEDAW (Page 1-5) in close coordination with the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, other line ministries and the AIHRC.

Have key international HR standards and/or mechanisms influenced choice

☒ ☐ Governance: ICCPR art 3, enjoyment of equal right

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and formulation of outcome areas? for men and women, art 18 rights to freedom of thoughts, art 22, art 21&22 right to freedom of association; ICESCR art 3 enjoyment of equal rights to men and women of their social, economic and cultural rights; CEDAW Art. 2,3&4, art 15 Growth & Employment: ICESCR art 6., right to gainful employment ICCPR: art. 21, 22, right to free association CEDAW: art 11 non-discrimination in employment Employment creation in the agricultural sector is potentially the most powerful means of poverty alleviation in Afghanistan. Farmers and producers organisations play important roles therein. The sector is characterized by gender inequality. Education: UDHR, art 26 right to education ICESCR, art 13, compulsory, free primary education CRC, art 12, 29 relating to the rights of the child and access to education CEDAW, art 10 on the right of access to education for women on the same basis as men. The Afghan Constitution (Arts 17, 43-46) proclaims the right of all Afghan citizens to free education – with primary education being compulsory. The school population has risen from 1 million (mostly boys) during the Taliban regime to over 8 million today (40% of whom are girls).

Where relevant, is application at national level, including major gaps between human rights in principle vs. human rights in practice, evaluated and identified?

☒ ☐

Afghanistan remains at the bottom of international league tables relating to equitable development. UNDP’s Human development ranking 2012 =175/182. Transparency International’s

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Corruption perception ranking 2013 = 175/175. Gender inequality ranking = 175/186. Governance: There is significant gap between human rights in principle and human rights in practice in Afghanistan. Many areas of human rights are adopted in legislation and policy, i.e. in the Afghanistan constitution (Art. 22), EVAW law, Media law, election law, NAPWA etc. The ANDS provides an important vehicle for domesticating these commitments; however, the implementation remains largely lacking. UPR 2009 (Page 4-5), CEDAW Periodic Report 2011 (under chapters 2&7) and others confirm this gap in the actual implementation. Growth & Employment: With its history of conflict and levels of poverty, empowerment in Afghanistan is poor and Government recognises this in its development policies and programming. Methodologies for rural development increasingly use highly decentralised planning and there is a good recognition of the role of the private sector and human enterprise in development. Education: Despite the progress made since 2001, the development has been uneven between the provinces and there remain serious challenges relating to education, including of access and quality. Insecurity impedes delivery of school supplies, enrolment, monitoring and school supervision. Entrenched cultural norms oppose the education of girls and early marriage interrupts or halts their education. There is an acute need for female teachers. 60% of out of school children are girls.

Are key recommendations from ☒ ☐ A number of key recommendations

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UPR for the thematic programmes and from any treaty bodies, special procedures, INGOs, HNRIs etc. that require follow up at national level considered?

from UPR which need the attention of the Afghan Government for national follow-up include the harmonization of the domestic Legislations with the International HR obligations, establishment of an HR Support Unit within the Afghan Ministry of Justice, measures to fight corruption and promote accountability of the government and improvement of capacity in order to promote democracy and HR in the country, have been considered.

Are rights-holders identified?

☒ ☐

Governance: CSOs working in the Democracy and Human Rights Promotions with particular focus on the Afghan women, girls and children. Growth & Employment: Farmers and producers, both male and female, agricultural organisations, traders and nomadic tribes Education: There is a major focus on primary education where the increased participation of girls is an achievement. It is important to promote greater access and focus on quality, including in terms of infrastructure, text books, and teaching that counters entrenched cultural stereotypes. Higher education generally suffers from severe skilled human resource shortages.

Are duty-bearers identified?

☒ ☐

Governance: The government/State of Afghanistan (Ministries of Finance, Education, Interior, and IDLG; the donors. Growth and Employment: Private sector, government (MAIL) and donors Education: Especially Ministry of Education. Ministry of Higher Education.

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Assess whether Human Rights Principles have been applied in the preparation and in the design of the programme?

Non-discrimination: Are any groups among rights-holders excluded from access and influence in the thematic programme areas identified?

☒ ☐

No particular groups are explicitly excluded (Constitution Art. 22); however, ethnicity and nepotism are a common feature in Afghanistan and, alongside deeply entrenched cultural norms, frequently lead to certain groups being discriminated against in practice. Despite improvements, women and girls continue to be disadvantaged. In addition, people who live in insecure or areas under insurgents control may not benefit from the programmes. Governance: Inadequate legislation in some cases and more often lack of actual law enforcement along with cultural restrictions continue to undermine women’s ability to claim and practice their fundamental rights. However, attention have been paid by the government to ensure Gender equality, namely the Afghan Constitutions art 83-6 and the Election Law of Afghanistan (art 30) that has specified a quota i.e. 25% of all elected representatives in parliament and (20% in provincial councils) should be female. This could be compared to the Taliban regime where the deprivation of women’s basic rights was extensive. Growth & Employment: There is much attention being paid to correcting gender inequality and there are good examples of successful interventions in agriculture (saffron, backyard chicken rearing) but their coverage is limited. Programming identifies this as an issue and commits to resolving equity issues, also proposing gender disaggregated reporting.

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Education: There has been a major focus on increasing school enrolment, particularly girls, which has had considerable success. The programme will build upon the national legislation and international commitments relating to free access to education and will seek to improve its quality. Community Based Education (CBE) approaches will be used in areas seriously affected by insecurity where access is difficult. Efforts will also be required to counter cultural norms preventing or limiting access to education for girls, including early marriage, lack of female teachers, lack of girl’s schools, curricula and the effects of high levels of adult illiteracy (61% of 15+ years)

Are disaggregated data available on most vulnerable groups?

☒ ☐

The Afghan Central Statistics Organization in partnership with the Ministry of Women’s Affairs and with the financial support from the UN Women conducted the study (Women and Men in Afghanistan 2012) which indicates the status of women and men in Afghanistan in the six major thematic areas, namely, Gender and Population (Page 1); Security, Legal Protection and Human Rights (Page 14); Leadership & Political Participation (31); Economy, Work and Poverty; Health; and Education. The study is revealing existing gender inequalities and calls attention to issues that must be addressed. In the education sector, the national education strategy (NESP) provides gender disaggregated data.

List any key support elements included to promote non-discrimination

☒ ☐

Governance:

Support to national human rights infrastructure, including AIHRC, which have important awareness-raising and education roles. Support to Tawanmandi will likewise promote an active civil society role, including human rights, media/freedom of expression and

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access to justice.

Support to democratic processes (via ELECT & FEFA).

ARTF interventions based on principle of non-discrimination and equal access to benefits, transparency and accountability. Gender equality and women’s empowerment aspects in ARTF require continued strengthening.

Support to subnational govenance aims to strenghthen the linkage between the central government and local level (administration and people) to ensure equitable and inclusive sevice delivery to the community.

Growth & Employment: • Equal access to support in a transparent setup • Efforts to ensure broad access to information about opportunities for support • Identification of interventions focussing on women beneficiaries • Development of female-specific financial products Education:

Continued emphasis on improving access to education, including enrolment, quality of teaching (including teachers at Islamic schools), infrastructure, teaching materials and curricula.

Particular focus on further improvements in girls attendance.

Participation and inclusion: Are barriers for participation, inclusion and empowerment of rights holders identified?

☒ ☐

Insecurity in certain areas continues to be a constraint in all sectors reducing service provision and access. Cultural norms can sometimes create social barriers preventing: active participation of women in politics; the education of girls; and access to justice. Lack of awareness of rights and the means to

25

access them (exacerbated by continuing high levels of illiteracy) also acts as a barrier. Governance: Inadequate Afghan government support to media addressing Violence against journalists is an issue in. See http://data.nai.org.af/ for data. Systemic and predominant Corruption (TI/CPI 2013 Afghanistan is 175/175) and culture of impunity can also be a major barrier in preventing participation and inclusion, especially in politics and the provision of good governance. Growth & Employment: Some projects show good results, for example around microfinance and microenterprise initiatives. Use of Community Development Councils (CDCs), and farmers groups and organisations as basic units of planning and implementation provides a good platform for inclusion. Further, specific needs and possible interventions for nomadic tribes have been identified and programmes focus on their inclusion. Education: Barriers relating to access to education for girls include early marriage, lack of female teachers, lack of girl’s schools, lack of proper facilities at schools (e.g. boundary walls, water and sanitation) curricula and the effects of high levels of adult illiteracy (61% of 15+ years). Gender Parity Index (GPI) was 0.66 in 2012 indicating extreme disparity in the education sector, although this varies according to region (NESP III). Lack of available places in higher education acts as a barrier. High teacher/pupil ratios (105:1 for qualified teachers) affect quality of teaching, especially in rural areas.

List any key support elements included ☒ ☐ Governance:

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to promote participation and inclusion The support to UNDP ELECT II to improve political participation with particular focus on female participation for the 2014 and 2015 election rounds. Furthermore, the Danish contribution to FEFA will target strengthening legal infrastructure and implementation mechanisms for free and fair elections as well as increased political participation of women and youth. Support to AIHRC and through Tawanmandi serves to increase awareness of rights and citizen participation (also outside of Kabul). ARTF interventions include a focus on inclusion in decision-making, including at local levels (e.g. through strengthening sub-national governance and through the National Solidarity Programme (NSP)). Growth & Employment: • Programme components include interventions directed at including women in programme activities • ADF has specific credit line for women • ADF has a clear objective to employ female qualified staff and offer professional development opportunities • Credit needs identification through local level shuras • CARD-F planning and identification of interventions is to a large extent participative in its inclusion of local stakeholders Education: NESP III, to whcih the Danish support will be closely aligned) provides overall goals for 2014-2017.

MOE is committed to achieving MDGs 2 and 3 and the EFA goals by 2020, relating to inclusive education, gender equality and empowerment, improving adult literacy, and teaching quality.

27

MOE will strengthen school management shuras to increase parents, local elders and other influential persons involvement in school affairs.

MOE will increase coordination with NGOs, the private sector and donors in policy formulation, planning, and implementation processes.

Transparency: Is the extent to which information is accessible to rights holders including marginalised groups assessed? Where relevant, whether information is available in other than official languages of the country in question should be indicated.

☒ ☐

For many years, a broad range of information has been kept secret in Afghanistan. Corruption is a huge problem creating enormous wastage and compromises service delivery. Illiteracy, low levels of inclusion in decision-making and administration, and weak information infrastructure all help this to continue. There is relative freedom for the media and the present government allows freedom of expression; however, suppression is common. Governance: The Access to Information Law was drafted through a transparent process with the active participation of the Afghan civil society. The law has been sent by the Government to the parliament for approval. Through presidential decree #45, the GoA has taken steps to share information with the public and the media regarding mining contracts, the national budget etc. However, there is limited access to information by rights holders in place. The ability of right holders to access and take action on information is highly constrained which widen the gap between the public including the marginalized ones, central and local governments. Growth & Employment: Both CARD-F and ADF work in a transparent manner and carries out shuras and other organised information gatherings. Much work is done in

28

making sure that all groups are identified and informed about opportunities. The process of approval and inclusion in the programmes are transparent and stakeholders are informed during the whole process. Applicants denied receive support towards becoming eligible in future. Education NESP III provides monitorable goals and targets (with baselines). NESP Programem 5 has the overall goal to provide effective, efficient and transparent support services for education programmes throughout the country. Inter alia, this will be achieved through decentralisation, enhancement of planning and management capacity at province and district levels and participatory planning. The EMIS will improve the quality and reliability of education data.

List any key support elements included to promote transparency

☒ ☐

Governance: Support to the Tawanmandi (NGO grant programme) which works to strengthen Afghan civil society and its relationship with the Afghan Government in order to improve the Government's accountability and responsiveness. Support to FEFA which will observe the 2014 elections; furthermore, FEFA promotes women political participation and monitors the work of the Afghan National Assembly. Support to Independent Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (MEC) is intended to strengthen the GoA’s commitment to anti-corruption. The AIHRC provides valuable monitoring of the human rights situation in general.

29

Growth & Employment: See above (non-discrimination, under G&E). • Monitoring using mobile phone and Internet technology ensures transparent, timely and credible data. • Local level shuras organised by programme components •Participatory approaches to planning involving local stakeholders – public and private •Funding off-budget under present circumstances, having own monitoring and compliance procedures Education: At the local level, NESP places focus on the involvement of local shuras in school affairs.

Are key accountability mechanisms in the relevant area – both horizontal and vertical listed?

☒ ☐

Vertical accountability: There is a strong focus on enhancing accountability (including fight against corruption) in the good governance/Democracy pillar. Pooled funding through ARTF, LOTFA, ELECT, Tawanmandi and AIHRC provides important space to advance vertical accountability through dialogue with GoA. Horizontal Accountability: Engagements with Civil Societies through Tawanmandi, which is systematically empowering individual rights holders and holding duty bearers accountable. Strengthening the capacity and independence of media through Tawanmandi remains critical to ensure horizontal accountability and is expected to be an important part of the future Good Governance, Democracy and Human Rights Programme. AIHRC provides training and education on human rights in order to strengthen awareness (and promote accountability).

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There are a number of innovative field monitoring systems (e.g. CARD-F’s Intelligent Service System). Programmes often use third parties to undertake compliance and monitoring work.

Are obstacles, e.g. capacity and political-economy incentives that duty-bearers and rights holders face to exercise their obligations and rights listed?

☒ ☐

There is a poor/lack of capacity of individual rights holders to practice and demand their rights, including legal and social barriers in place. In addition, there are very few existing mechanisms to hold those in power accountable. The gradual transformation of power to an elected government, where most of the government senior positions are controlling by warlords and some part of the country remains under the insurgents’ and illegal armed group control, is developing at a slow pace. The 2014 and 2015 elections will be critical in determining the future direction of political arrangements, including incentive systems. These facts can be considered as obstacles for promoting effective accountability mechanisms. In the worst case, they undermine the overall government reform process including the promotion of human rights and gender equality. Other obstacles include barriers to women´s inclusion and participation in the economy, rights for nomadic tribes as well as citizens’ access to support (technical, markets, information, credit etc.) Corruption is a pervasive obstacle which hampers the exercise of the obligation of duty-bearers and right-holders. Therefore, the emergence of a more accountable administration will provide incentives for strengthened performance. This depends upon political will, although donor supported initiatives (such as PFMR, CBR etc.)

31

will contribute to enabling greater effectiveness.

List any key support elements included to promote accountability

☒ ☐

Support to the Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (MEC) mandated to identify effective development criteria for institutions to monitor and evaluate Anti-Corruption activities at the national level , of international organization and of the donor aid; and to report to the President, parliament, the Afghan public and International Community. Support to the Tawanmandi program which works to strengthen Afghan civil society and its relationship with the Afghan Government in order to improve the Government's accountability and responsiveness. Support to elections (UNDP ELECT) wills also enhavce the level of accountability of the Government at the local and national level. Support to FEFA also target implementation mechanisms for free and fair elections, increased transparency in parliament, enhanced accountability of members of parliament and increased transparency of the electoral process. Programmes have rigorous accountability systems and extensive monitoring. The significant proportion of support provided on-budegt will also support accountability.

Results/Indicators

List any indicators designed to monitor the realisation of specific human rights

☒ ☐

Governance: a. % of human rights cases

investigated will be resolved. b. % increase in the number of

women and vulnerable persons

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consulting courts and having their cases resolved

c. % increase in awareness among Implementing Partners and the Afghan population on human rights and civic responsibilities.

Growth & Employment: a. Number of jobs, disaggregated by

gender. b. Number of beneficiaries, borrowers,

disaggregated by gender. c. Increased income disaggregated by

gender. Education: d. Number of girls in primary

education (rural/urban) e. Number of girls in secondary

education (rural/urban) f. Number of female teachers g. Relative change in Gender Parity

Index in education sector

Indicators will be further developed during the programme formulation

List any indicators designed to monitor the integration of the four principles

☐ ☐

Governance: TBD Growth & Employment: a. Number & type of rejected / accepted applications for support b. Results and management letters of audits Education: TBD

List any key indicators chosen to track capacity of key partners (both rights holders and duty bearers)

☐ ☐

Governance: TBD Growth & Employment: a. Increased income, b. production levels, c. application of technology, d. relevant training & extension service provided Education: TBD

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Dialogue Partners

Define key dialogue partners (duty bearers) to be addressed by the country programme

☒ ☐

Governance: Ministries of Finance, Justice, Interior, Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC); Growth & Employment: Ministries of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock, Rural Rehabilitation and Development, Counter-Narcotics, Finance, Commerce and Industry Education: Ministries of Education and Higher Education

Define key alliance partners, including other likeminded donors, multilateral partners and CSO’s

☒ ☐

Governance: World Bank, The European Delegation (EU), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), UNAMA, SDC, UK-DFID/British Council, other Embassies and development agencies involved in the Governance Sector, including the Nordics, Dutch, German, UK and US including USAID. Furthermore, FEFA, AIHRC, Integrity Watch and Tawanmandi grantees. Growth & Employment: Department for International Development-UK, United States Agency for International Development-USA, European Delegation-EU World Bank, Other embassies and development agencies involved in the sector, including Dutch Embassy, German Embassy, Italian Cooperation, Australian Embassy/AUSAID, Japanese Embassy/JICA, FAO, IFAD. Education: World Bank (EQUIP), Canada, Germany, USAID, SIDA, JICA, UNICEF.

State major dilemmas/risks associated with the policy dialogue and proposed

☒ ☐ Human Rights in general and Women’s Rights/gender issue is regarded as a

34

mitigation measures (incl. reference to Framework for Risk Assessment)

Western imported phenomena and agenda. The existence of systemic corruption within the government agencies utilizing the development aid; with low govt. capacity calls for alignment and harmonisation as latest expressed for Afghanistan in the TMAF. Mitigation measures can be detailed when risk assessment log will be developed during the program formulation.

Gender Screening Tool

Are key challenges and opportunities for gender equality identified?

☒ ☐

The current situation of women in the country presents a serious challenge to human development. Such a reality cannot be viewed in isolation from the effect of the past decades of conflict or from harmful traditional practices that have shaped the current position of women in the family structures and the society as such. Key challenges identified include: violence against women, poor enforcement of legislation on issues of women’s rights due to a lack of political will and inadequate access of women justice particularly legal aid and low literacy rate.

Are reference made to CEDAW-reporting, UPR, and other relevant gender assessments?

☐ ☐

Identify opportunities/constraints for addressing gender equality issues

☒ ☐

Afghan women are particularly facing problems amongst others, in deprivation of rights, protection against violence and public participation sphere. However, in the last decades Afghanistan has witnessed increasing participation of women in politics and public life. The Government has supported women successfully and has been ensuring strong involvement of women in national institutions, including the civil service and the National Assembly (Articles 83 and 84 of the Constitution). The National Action Plan for the Women of Afghanistan (NAPWA) is a central

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component of Afghanistan’s effort to implement its commitments to women in a systematic and sustainable way. It aims to bring together short and long term measures that the Government and its partners will pursue to advance women’s status.

Describe key strategic interventions to promote gender equality within each thematic programme?

☐ ☐

The approach will be to ensure that priority is attached to addressing gender equality and women’s empowerment issues in each thematic programme and that progress is monitored through accurate gender disaggregated data. The actual approach will be tailored to the specific intervention concerned. The use of gender-disaggregated data is already widely used in planning and reporting but should be extended further. The ARTF remains the main vehicle for joint development support to Afghanistan – although gender has not always been sufficiently in focus. The ARTF has established a Gender Working Group, which needs to be operationalized, and this will be a relevant vehicle for improving the ART’s performance in relation to gender issues. The specific interventions relating to gender will be outlined in the programme formulation.

Explain how gender specific purposes with be reached, which strategic approach, what activities are planned

☐ ☐

The specific interventions relating to gender will be outlined in the programme formulation.

Define expected outputs.

☐ ☐

The specific interventions relating to gender will be outlined in the programme formulation.

Identify gender equality indicators aligned with national targets on gender if possible.

☐ ☐

everal of the targets relating to MDG 3 are relevant to this programme; for example:

Eliminate gender disparity in all levels of education no later than 2020

Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education - Ratio of literate females to males (15- to 24-year-olds)

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Increase female participation in elected bodies at all levels of governance to 30% by 2020

Proportion of seats held by women in national, provincial and district representative bodies.

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Annex IV. Climate change and Green Growth screening note

Basic Information

Programme title: Afghanistan Adjusted Country Programme

Country/region: Afghanistan

Estimated allocation: 1020 Million DKK

Brief description of the Programme support:

The overall strategic objective of the programme therefore is to assist the Afghan Government and civil society in developing an effective democratic, transparent and accountable state which enjoys the support of its people and promotes human rights with a particular emphasis on strengthening education for all and growth and employment.

Dates (expected): Programme committee: 6th February 2014; Appraisal: May 2014

Climate change screening

Assess the status of policies and strategies to respond to climate change in the country and sector. If the issue is inadequately dealt with (indicated by a tick in the “no” box), please add comments and assess the potential impact on the program (see also “next steps” section, below).

Issue: Yes No Comments and further work to be done:

1. Are the processes and impacts of climate change documented (e.g. in national communications to the UNFCCC)?

Afghanistan submitted its last NAPA report to UNFCCC in 2009.

2. Is there a national climate change policy or strategy, including estimates of the economic costs of adaptation?

Afghanistan launched its first climate change policy in October 2012. The initiative is focused on protecting communities vulnerable to the effects of climate change and ensuring Afghan institutions can address the risks of climate change. The policy was supported by the GEF.

3. Have nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) and or Low Carbon Development Plans been identified (e.g. targets for renewable energy production)?

Afghanistan NAMAs include the preparation of initial national

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communication, including national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory.

Afghanistan National Development Strategy has identified alternative energy as a development priority. Alternative energy projects are being tested across the country, albeit at a low level

4. Has a national adaptation programme of action (NAPA) been approved identifying key sectors where adaptation is required?

The NAPA process identified 51different actions in seven different sectors as the potential adaption projects and prioritized 11of them for immediate implementation.

5. Are there effective and operational meteorological and disaster preparedness organizations?

Afghanistan’s disaster preparedness and metrological authorities are operational but they are not fully equipped with the state of the art knowledge and technology due to three decades of conflict. Currently, both organizations are heavily depended on financial and technical support from the international agencies and donors.

Summarize the overall assessment of climate change impacts and responses:

Climate change in Afghanistan will have severe consequences for socio-economic development. The vulnerability assessment of a potential seven different sectors revealed that water resources is the most vulnerable sector followed by forestry and rangeland, agriculture, health, biodiversity, energy and waste. The Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) with its Vision 2020 aims for

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environmentally sustainable development. Although ANDS does not emphasize “climate change”, various sectoral programs/projects included in ANDS and more recently in the form of National Priority Programs help build national capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change in Afghanistan. Mainstreaming climate change mitigation and adaptation in the national and sectoral policies plans and programs is urgent. Existing institutional and coordinating mechanisms and some environment and disaster related policy and legal frameworks are supportive but need to be reviewed from climate change perspectives. Afghanistan as an LDC, has prepared its National Adaption Program of Action (NAPA) through a nationally driven consultative process submitted to UNFCCC in 2009. The NAPA process identified 51 different actions in seven different sectors as the potential adaption projects and form them prioritized 11 of them for immediate implementation. The prioritized adaptation actions are: Improved Water Management and Use Efficiency; Land and Water Management at Watershed Level; Development of Horticulture; Improved Terracing, Agro-forestry and Agro-silvo Pastoral System; Agriculture Research; Rangeland Management; Development of Disaster Management Strategy; Improved Food Security; Improved Livestock Production; Creation of Off Farm Employment; and Climate Related Research and Early Warning System. With development partner support, the above projects have been identified but further progress is yet to be made. Afghanistan launched its first climate change policy in October 2012 and it is expected that the policy will further help the government Afghanistan in its climate change adaption efforts. More details will be provided during the formulation phase.

Screening of Country Green Growth Framework

Assess the status of policies and strategies for green growth and the procedures for environmental impact assessment in the country and sector. If an issue is inadequately dealt with (indicated by a tick in the “no” box), please add comments and indicate further work to be undertaken (see also “next steps” section, below).

Issue: Yes No Comments and further work to be done:

1. Do national procedures and legislation for Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) exist?

Environment Law 2007, EIA Regulation, EIA Administrative Guideline and many checklists for screening, impact analysis, evaluation, and establishment of EIA Board of Experts to support NEPA at evaluation of EIA studies have established national procedures on EIA. Further, the Environment Law also has provisions of environmental assessment of Policy, Plans and

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Programmes giving legal mandate to NEPA to initiate establishing SEA procedures in Afghanistan.

2. Are there operational Green Growth Strategies/actions plans and/or National Environmental Action plans?

The Government of Afghanistan has had a National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP) since 2010 with focus on Air Quality; Water Quality; Land, Forestry and Rangelands; Biodiversity; and Cross-Cutting Actions. In each of the focused area, different actions for sectoral ministries are defined and part of the action plan. Hence, the NEAP (developed by NEPA) provides an overall guiding framework on how to integrate/ mainstream environmental issues into sector plans. There are concrete cases of environment incorporated into sector plans (i.e. agriculture and education). Other initiatives target environmental programming, such as the Greening Afghanistan Initiative (GAIN), a UN Joint Programme with the objectives of improving government capacity on environmental management and promoting

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environmental awareness building and education.

3. Are there regularly updated state of the environment reports and green growth monitoring systems with indicators?

UNEP and NEPA have launched a State of the Environment Report in 2008 (stipulated under the Environmental Law). NEPA is legally mandated to publish SOE after two years (has not happened).

4. Is there sufficient institutional and human capacity for green growth and environmental management in the sector concerned?

The ANDS with its Vision 2020 aims for environmentally sustainable development. Although, ANDS does not emphasize “climate change”, various sectoral programs/projects included in ANDS and more recently in the form of National Priority Programs help build national capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change in Afghanistan.

Mainstreaming climate change mitigation and adaptation in the national and sectoral policies plans and programs is urgent.

Existing institutional and coordinating mechanisms and some environment and disaster related policy and legal frameworks are supportive but need to be reviewed

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from climate change perspectives.

Summarize the overall impression of the Country Green Growth Framework:

Afghanistan has environmental laws and the policy for environmental impact assessment processes is part of the environmental normative framework. However, there are capacity issues and though it is expected these will be addressed as part of capacity development programmes, this will take time and progress must be expected to be variable. Both of the AGE’s components undertake their own pragmatic EIA’s as a matter of routine, seeing that as an integral part of their risk management.

Climate change and Green Growth opportunities and risks of programme

Assess how climate change and environmental opportunities and risks will arise through the programme:

Will the programme ... Opportunity:

Risk: None:

1. ... support green growth initiatives including livelihood improvements and resource efficiency

2. ... support the creation of decent and green job?

3. ... contribute to effective management and efficient use of natural resources

4. ... have direct or indirect impact on climate change (e.g. through increasing or reducing emissions of greenhouse gases)?

5. ... have direct or indirect impact on occupational health and safety?

6. ... lead to changes in land and resource tenure and access rights, including the rights of indigenous peoples?

7. ... include activities within or adjacent to protected or environmentally sensitive areas?

8. ... have direct or indirect impact on the resilience of communities in the face of natural disasters?

Summarize and explain climate change and green growth opportunities:

The ANDS highlights the importance of environmentally sustainable development. Afghanistan is still recovering from one of the worst droughts in memory, which left much of the country without sufficient food. Much of the country’s water comes from snow and glacier melt, which is disappearing with the changing climate. Poppy plants are better able to withstand drought than most food crops; so when facing uncertain rainfall, farmers make the decision to provide for their families. Addressing climate change and helping people and infrastructure to adapt to changing patterns in temperature and rainfall will be crucial to achieving peace. Opportunities to improve soils and water resources, use and thus improve productivity and sustainability are plentiful and are central to the AGE interventions. There are good opportunities to use renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar to improve the lives of the Afghan people, but these have to be handled sensitively and rationally to minimise risk to investors and

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clients. There are examples of small-scale wind installations that have provided electricity with positive outcomes for health, education, incomes, and food security in the serviced areas. The challenge is to help people adapt to climate change, while promoting development and to avoid introducing technologies in a manner that cannot be self sustaining.

Summarize and explain climate change and green growth risks:

As farming and food production become more intensive, there are risks of increased pollution through discharge and exhaustion of soils, though at this time when commercial agriculture is so undeveloped the risks are considered to be minimal and out-weighed by the aspects of the programme that are beneficial to the environment and peoples’ resilience to climate change.

The good governance programme doesn’t seem to contain any climate change and environmental risks. However, the education programme may have slight impact on environment in terms of school construction but school construction is a small part of the portfolio.

Identify requirements for undertaking an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Categories are: [ A ] Full EIA required; [ B ] Partial EIA required; [ C ] No EIA required12. Intervention Name Category A, B or C:

1: Afghanistan Growth and Employment Programme (AGE) B - partial EIA

2: Education Programme B- Partial EIA

3: Good Governance C- No EIA

Will national regulations and procedures for EIA be applicable to activities of the programme that have potential environmental impacts? – Yes - No When will the EIA be undertaken?:

Next Steps – process action plan

Need for further work during the preparation, appraisal and implementation of the programme arising from the climate change and green growth screening: Suggested activity: Action needed Comments and elaboration:

1. Assessment of green growth and climate change opportunities in sector development plan.

Growth and Employment Programme (CARD-F and ADF EIA processes satisfactory but if NPP-2 joint partner financing gets underway a higher level EIA should be undertaken) Good Governance (the sector impact on environment is of little or no concern) Support to Education (The sector impact on the environment is little

12 Category A = Intervention is likely to have adverse environmental impacts that may be sensitive, irreversible, and significant in scale/scope; B = Intervention is likely to have negative impacts, but which are less significant, not as sensitive, numerous, major or diverse; C = The environmental risk of the intervention are of little or no concern.

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or of no concern. Except some school construction projects

2. Assessment of capacity for green growth and climate change management in the sector/country.

in general government needs more attention, also stronger leadership).

3. Prepare ToR for and conduct Country Analytical Work.

Premature to initiate this. That would need to be sequenced as part of the NPPs.

4. Prepare ToR for and conduct SEA(s) of sector policies or plans.

Same as above

5. Prepare ToR for and conduct EIA(s) for programme interventions.

In the growth and employment programme this undertaken. Other two programmes, good governance and education are considered to be minimum impacts in this regard.

6. Initiate donor harmonisation in the sector on green growth and climate change.

Premature to this at this stage but it its worthwhile to start a dialogue with the other donors.

7. Other...?

Signature of Screening Note

Place and date ………………………………………………………. (name) Danish Mission in

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Annex V. Preliminary Results Framework

Thematic Programme

Governance, Democracy and Human Rights

Thematic Programme Objective

To (i) Improve public administration at central and local levels to enable more efficient and effective service delivery, based on the principles of participation, transparency, accountability and inclusion; (ii) strengthen Afghanistan’s ability to protect, promote, and respect human rights and (iii) development of civil society that foster increased responsiveness of public authorities, increase awareness of the value of public participation, and promote public accountability and transparency.

Impact Indicator [Priority Country’s indicator]

Engagement Title ARFT

Engagement Title MEC

Engagement Title IWA (TBC)

Engagement Title Support to Subnational Governance (TBC)

Engagement Title ELECT

Engagement Title FEFA

Engagement Title AIHRC

Engagement Title Tawanmandi

Thematic Programme

Education

Thematic Programme Objective

To promote equal access to quality education for all Afghans regardless of gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status or religious affiliation thereby enabling them to develop their knowledge and skills and maximize their potential.

Impact Indicator 1. Develop human capital based on Islamic principles and respect for human rights by providing equitable access to quality education for all to enable them to actively participate in sustainable development, economic growth, stability and security of Afghanistan.

2. Support Ministry of Education in implementing an inclusive plan

that aims to enhance access, quality, relevance and management of educational delivery mechanisms.

Engagement Title ESPA III

Engagement Title Community Based Education

Thematic Programme

Growth and Employment

Thematic Programme Objective

Improve sustainable agriculture production and productivity and increase on and off-farm enterprises, contributing to food security, inclusive economic growth and reduced dependency of subsistence and marginal farmers and labourers on narcotic crops.

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Impact Indicator Reduction in unemployment rate (in rural and agricultural areas), Reduction in imports in basic agricultural products, Economic Growth (in agricultural sector)

Engagement Title CARD-F

Outcome indicator Sustainable growth in licit rural incomes and employment in selected districts.

Baseline Year 2013 TBD

Target Year 2017 TBD

Engagement Title ADF

Outcome indicator Increase in credit to small commercial farmers, and agribusinesses engaged in distribution of agricultural inputs, producers of high-value crops, processors and exporters of agricultural products.

Baseline Year 2013 TBD

Target Year 2017 TBD

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Annex VI. Preliminary Risk Matrix Contextual risks Risk factor Likelihood Background to assessment Impact

Background to assessment Risk response if applicable /

potential effect on development cooperation in context

1 Decline in national security and civil order

Likely This is an existing and persistent situation in several provinces but the situation is not static and is likely to continue and flow through the programme’s life. The likelihood of declined security - also at the national level - is further strengthened by the withdrawal of foreign combat troops by the end of 2014.

Minor This is the existing situation. Movement of implementing and monitoring partners is already restricted or not feasible in some provinces. Physical, financial and communications infrastructure are compromised. Movement of goods and services for input and output markets constrained.

Further decline in national security will affect the Embassy and partners' ability to operate at the current level - with a reduced programme delivery as a result. However, as the current risk environment is already high, a significant worsening is not regarded as likely. The situation will be closely monitored in conjunction with other international partners as there are a large number of inter-dependencies that could improve or worsen the security context.

2 Political instability

Likely Even though the elections preparations have been on track so far, the outcome of the Presidential election is far from certain. Partisan loyalties could disrupt provision of local government’s maintenance of security, law and order and service delivery. The vested interests and foreign involvement and resources at stake makes it

Major Political stability will depend on post-election agreements and political alliances between warlords and elite groupings often having their backing from ethnic groups and power bases in specific regions/provinces.

Embassies and offices of international organisations would be forced to either close or scale down Government directed operations drastically for security and political reasons; and so would the Danish Embassy and Danida funded programmes. Development partners would redirect funds to respond to the inevitable humanitarian emergency.

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likely that an alliance will eventually be brokered.

3 Increased Corruption

Likely Elections and troop withdrawal during 2014-15 are expected to cause political instability and a worsened security and safety situation, thereby further weakening public sector capacity, as well as transparency and accountability mechanisms.

Major Although the already widespread corruption has enforced rigid control measures for disbursement of a great part of development assistance funds, the persistence of high levels of corruption will undermine government and civil society operations and limit donor agencies confidence and risk willingness.

Embassies and offices of international organisations would ensure close control over disbursement mechanisms which will have the effect of reducing national ownership and movements towards on-budget support. Continued support to PFMR and watchdog functions will be necessary. An increase in corruption cases involving assistance funds will lead to calls for a reduction and redirection in aid away from potential risk areas.

4 Deterioration of Human Rights

Unikely Deterioration in the rights and equality of women compared to status quo is unlikely, but worsening of the security situation, political instability and corruption can be expected with elections and troop withdrawal in 2014 and could lead to continued human rights challenges and put gains made over the last decade under pressure.

Major The possibilities for improving on the 4 HR principles are closely connected to the situation regarding security, political stability, corruption and governance. Although free speech and other democratic steps have been taken, reality shows a trend to centralise power and suppression. This will impede the programme impact within the HR area.

Development Partners to strengthen their HR policy dialogue with the Government; support civil society and HR organisations; strengthen HR enforcement at programme implementation and monitoring levels.

5 Worsened macroeconomic framework

Likely Public expenditure hikes have worsened fiscal sustainability (fiscal deficit for 2014 projected at 40%); lower growth rates; high security

Major With an expected worsening security situation combined with increased political instability and lower growth, there will be major challenges increasing the GIROA's ability to

Any withdrawal of external support assistance would have to be measured against the risk of a further deterioration of the political and security situation.

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costs (around 40% of public spending); almost entire development budget and 40% of operations budget externally financed; limited scope for revenue collection.

provide services and deliver on its development agenda. Lower funding will have a serious impact on government operations and development investments.

6 Outcome and process of elections are unacceptable

Unlikely Elections preparations are currently on track - and there is a widespread support for the elections.

Major Legitimacy of GIROA is dependent upon a credible election process and it is expected that this will be largely achieved. Even in the best case scenario, a hiatus in governance effectiveness can be expected as the new administration takes over. But it is expected that this will be overcome during the second half of 2014. In worst case scenario there will be no legitimate/credible government counterpart which would have a major impact on development programmes.

Continued support to elections through ELECT and support to civil society monitoring and broader democracy initiatives (through FEFA). Joint policy dialogue with government to ensure that the commitment to free and fair elections is upheld.

7 Non-signature of BSA

Unlikely The BSA is essential for continued US and NATO presence in support of the security transition. It is expected that the BSA will be signed but it is unclear whether signature will be before or after the elections.

Signifi-cant

A failure to sign the BSA would precipitate a further worsening of relations between the GIROA and key international partners (particularly the US). In the worst case, it would lead to the complete withdrawal of foreign troops and external military support with severe consequences for continued development of ANSF and its ability to secure the country to a degree necessary to permit access and further national development. At the same time, the deterioration in

If the Bilateral Security Agreement between the US and Afghanistan is not signed, it would be a game-changer and would jeopardise all aspects of cooperation including development cooperation. Denmark will support the political dialogue urging agreement on conditions ensuring continued transition and development engagement along the lines envisaged in Chicago and Tokyo.

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confidence between GIROA and its partners would make it difficult to maintain current levels of international support, further worsening the fiscal deficit and severely constraining international willingness to invest in Afghanistan's development along current lines.

8 Decreased administrative capacity in civil service following elections

Likely Elections and the installation of a new administration are expected to cause a hiatus in GIROA capacity and (temporarily) further weaken public sector capacity, as well as transparency and accountability mechanisms.

Major A prolonged decrease in the Afghan Government's ability to act as a committed development partner and provide basic services would undermine a number of the specific activities and be an obstacle for further progress. However, this result may not be uniform and some areas of government may continue to provide opportunities.

Persistent capacity problems will prompt a reassessment of development priorities towards areas where progress is possible.

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Programmatic risks

Risk factor Likelihood Background to assessment Impact

Background to assessment Risk response

1 Security & Safety. Geographically restricted decline in national security, safety and civil order causing substantial loss of Government´s ability to govern, maintain security and deliver services over the country as a whole.

Likely This is an existing and persistent situation in several provinces but the situation is not static and is likely to continue to ebb and flow through the programme’s life. The likelihood of declined security - also at the national level - is further strengthened by the withdrawal of foreign combat troops by the end of 2014.

Minor Minor impact for the programme as a whole; major for the regions/districts affected. This is the present situation in much of the country. In most cases implying that the programme's activities do not get underway - and consequently programme outputs cannot be achieved in insecure districts. Interventions will take account of the security situation and potential for inadvertently doing harm (which is assessed to be low).

Severe decline in national security may affect the Embassy's ability to operate at the current level - with a reduced programme delivery as a result. However, as the current risk environment is already high, a significant worsening is unlikely. The situation will be closely monitored in conjunction with other international partners as there are a large number of inter-dependencies.

2 Political Instability. During and following the 2014 and 2015 elections, a heightened degree of political uncertainty. In some areas,

Likely It is assessed that vested political interests will secure a largely credible election process following which there will be an incentive to distribute ministerial and other positions that enable GIROA to transit to a new administration by the end of 2014.

Significant In a situation of political limbo and uncertainty, it will not be possible to maintain sustained development progress and programmes will need to reduce activity levels where they are dependent upon political decision making. Where the political uncertainty has negative fallout on security, there will be increased problems

The impact is assessed to be significant but temporary. It will be relevant to design and adopt contingency plans that assume a lower level of activity but that also reflect possibilities for continued progress where conditions are right for this. There will be a need for close monitoring of the situation in concert with partners.

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resulting in increased insecurity, which will have implications for access and service delivery.

regarding access and service delivery.

3 Governance. Deterioration related to: levels of corruption, absence of rule of law, and low capacity of govt. institutions.

Likely The expected political instability after elections as well as the withdrawal of foreign combat troops in 2014 may weaken public sector capacity as well as transparency and accountability mechanisms - thus increasing opportunities for fraud.

Minor Due to the already widespread corruption and consequent control measures put in place for disbursement of a great part of development assistance funds, the impact of a worsening situation regarding corruption is assessed to be relatively minor at the programme level - provided that development partners would not cut aid-flows or withdraw.

Consider means of tightening controls on financial management and procurement. Work less with government directly and more with multilateral and civil society organisations. In extreme instances, this could, however, result in the need to close specific interventions or the entire programme.

4 Human Rights. Impunity and Human Rights violations continue or worsen - programme unable to achieve improvements on gender equality and equal access to resources.

Likely Deterioration in the rights and equality of women compared to status quo is unlikely, but worsening of the security situation, political instability and corruption can be expected with elections and troop withdrawal in 2014 and could lead to continued human rights challenges and put gains made over the last decade under pressure.

Major The possibilities for improving on the 4 HR principles are closely connected to the situation regarding security, political stability, corruption and governance. Although free speech and other democratic steps have been taken, reality shows a trend to centralise power and suppression. This will impede the programme impact within the HR area.

Strengthen the HR dialogue with public and private programme partners; strengthen support to civil society and HR organisations; strengthen HR enforcement at programme implementation and monitoring levels. In extreme instances, this could, however, result in the closure of specific interventions. Danida to influence programme interventions to include and monitor aspects related to ethnic discrimination and improved gender/social inclusion in criteria

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for targeting programme interventions and monitoring outcomes, including multiplier effects.

5 Economy growth rates stagnate or decline further. Markets contract. Investment confidence dwindles.

Likely It is expected that the withdrawal of foreign troops in itself will affect the economy negatively; in addition, a worsened security situation could result in a further drop in development assistance funding and private investments.

Minor Reduced levels of economic growth coupled with lower levels of military and development assistance (that assume a great share of the burden being taken by GIROA) and a low revenue base will negatively impact service delivery and development investments, making it more difficult for GIROA to fulfil ANDS objectives

In conjunction with likeminded donors, maintain focus and dialogue with GIROA on PFMR and other effectiveness initiatives, including anti-corruption, to promote more effective use of available resources, including income generation.

6 Human Resources. Inability to field qualified TA compromises design and intervention quality, innovation, and continuous upgrading of capacities.

Likely There already exists difficulties in identifying and attracting suitably qualified national and international TA.

Minor Although TA is necessary for further capacity building and innovation at the implementation level it is not believed that the effects of further restrictions in the movement of TA will have major negative short-term consequences for the programme due to the already established capacity and activities at the local level.

There will be a need to explore alternative models for providing TA and monitoring, especially outside of Kabul. Further use will need to be made of joint resources, especially UN.

7 Natural Resources. Occurrence of prolonged draughts

Likely Afghanistan is highly at risk from the impacts of climate change, notably from deteriorating water resources. Degradation of

Minor Food insecurity events require a concerted effort by GIROA, development partners and relief agencies. They usually distract resources from financing

UNOCHA prepares vulnerability assessments regularly and there are early warning systems in place. Danida should try to keep its focus on financing the growth and

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the resource base (forests, vegetative cover, soils, etc.) is ongoing and poor infrastructure (dams, irrigation, water storage) mean that the country's resilience to these events is limited. Predictability in food production will remain challenged, until this situation is reversed. Impact of adverse climate will affect economic productivity due to dependence upon agriculture.

development programmes. In conflicted spaces, these events and responses to them frequently worsen security and compromise governance and economic development.

employment sector (AGE) unless a very severe food insecurity event unfolded of a "national famine" magnitude. The AGE's interventions seek to build Afghanistan's resilience to these events and continuity in implementation is critical to that happening. Water saving interventions, such as the CARD-F promotion of drip-irrigation, should continue to have high priority.

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Institutional risks

Risk factor Likelihood Background to assessment Impact

Background to assessment Risk response

1 Security & Safety. Geographically restricted decline in national security, safety and civil order causing substantial loss of Government´s ability to govern, maintain security and deliver services over the country as a whole.

Likely This is an existing and persistent situation in several provinces but the situation is not static and is likely to continue to ebb and flow through the programme’s life. The likelihood of declined security - also at the national level - is further strengthened by the withdrawal of foreign combat troops by the end of 2014.

Minor Impact at the institutional level will be related to more restricted assignment and movement of staff in the field.

Where security problems arise in Afghanistan, program elements would provide resilience to allow activities to proceed. Also, it could be considered to rely more on local institutions (incl. private and civil society) while considering accepting higher delivery and fiduciary risks.

2 Political Instability. During and following the 2014 and 2015 elections, a heightened degree of political uncertainty. In some areas,

Likely It is assessed that vested political interests will secure a largely credible election process following which there will be an incentive to distribute ministerial and other positions that enable GIROA to transit to a new administration by the end of 2014.

Minor Given the conditions for aid delivery in Afghanistan as well as the institutional set-up of the programme with delegated support and direct funding, Danida may be criticised in the event of perceived inadequate political willingness and cohesion on the part of GIROA.

Maintain robust monitoring and interaction with programme partners (incl. GIROA), with possibilities for programme adjustment to respond to implementation weaknesses. In extreme cases, this may result in programme suspension/cancellation.

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resulting in increased insecurity, which will have implications for access and service delivery.

3 Governance. Deterioration related to: levels of corruption, absence of rule of law, and low capacity of govt. institutions.

Likely The expected political instability after elections as well as the withdrawal of foreign combat troops in 2014 may weaken public sector capacity as well as transparency and accountability mechanisms - thus increasing opportunities for fraud.

Major Danida will be criticised in case of fraudulent practices and poor levels of impact. Corruption involving Danish funds will have the potential to be serious depending on media interest.

Work less with government and more with private sector and civil society organisations. In extreme instances, this could, however, result in the need to close specific interventions or the entire programme.

4 Human Rights. Impunity and Human Rights violations continue or worsen - programme unable to achieve improvements on gender equality and equal access to resources.

Likely Deterioration in the rights and equality of women compared to status quo is unlikely, but worsening of the security situation, political instability and corruption can be expected with elections and troop withdrawal in 2014 and could lead to continued human rights challenges and put gains made over the last decade under pressure.

Major Continued human rights challenges, political instability and increased corruption can be expected with elections and troop withdrawal in 2014. However, such a situation would not immediately have institutional impact at programme level. The impact on the reputation of Danida on general issues related to objectives is not likely to invite much interest in media - however, more generally, dramatic incidents related to human rights abuses and/or policy contribute to increased

Strengthen HR dialogue with public and private programme partners (and monitoring of these) in order to secure that programme institutions (incl. private sector partners) live up to their respective HR responsibilities as duty-bearers or "having to respect" the 4 HR principles. Increase attention to women’s participation in all aspects of programme implementation - as employees or beneficiaries. Strengthen institutional capacity for HR enforcement at programme implementation and monitoring levels.

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scepticism regarding support to the country and have a negative impact on public perceptions and support.

5 Economy growth rates stagnate or decline further. Markets contract. Investment confidence dwindles.

Likely It is expected that the withdrawal of foreign troops in itself will affect the economy negatively; in addition, a worsened security situation could result in a further drop in development assistance funding and private investments.

Minor The programme is targeting planning mechanisms to help GIROA to manage lower growth and financial constraints that arise. There will be impacts on the education area (in terms of service delivery) and the potential of the growth and employment portfolio may be reduced. However both sectors remain vital to continued poverty reduction and there is not assessed to be a significant reputation risk.

Limit activities to those that are tried, tested, and robust and which can be supported with the existing institutional capacities especially at the local level.

6 Human Resources. Inability to field qualified TA compromises design and intervention quality, innovation, and continuous upgrading of capacities.

Likely There already exists difficulties in identifying and attracting suitably qualified national and international TA.

Interventions supported are generally already seeking to ensure that national TA are transferred to the Tashkeel.

Important that the Danish Embassy is sufficiently involved and familiar with programme implementation, progress and issues being discussed. Strategic use of international TA would contribute to this, possibly jointly with other donors.