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MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 1
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS
Portugal: policies, achievements and challenges
Vítor Gaspar
CIMB, Geneva June 05, 2012
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1. On the way to become the difficult Portuguese case 2. The Economic Adjustment Program 3. Fiscal consolidation 4. Deleveraging and financial stability 5. Structural transformation 6. Conclusion: how will it work?
Outline
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ON THE WAY TO BECOME THE DIFFICULT PORTUGUESE CASE
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Portugal’s imbalances exposed in the context of the economic and financial crisis
Macro-economic
imbalances and
structural weaknesses
that have been
accumulated over more
than a decade
3. Anemic economic growth and low productivity
1. Unsustainable public finances
2. Over-indebtedness
10-year Government bond yields Spread against Germany in basis points
Source: Bloomberg
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Austria ItalyBelgium SpainFrance IrelandNetherlands PortugalFinland Greece
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Persistent government deficits and increasing public debt Fragile public finances
Structural Current Primary Balance As a percentage of GDP
Unsustainable public finances
Deficit and public debt As a percentage of GDP
Source: AMECO and Ministry of Finance Source: INE, Bank of Portugal and Ministry of Finance
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Portugal Euro Area
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0123456789
101112131415
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net borrowing of Gen. Govern.Public debt - right axis
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Non-financial corporations
Households (a)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Increasing indebtedness of the private sector Increasing external debt
Portuguese gross external debt As a percentage of GDP
Over indebtedness
Debt of the Households and Non-financial Corporations As a percentage of GDP
Source: Bank of Portugal (*) Financial Debt Source: Bank of Portugal
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Insufficient attraction of direct foreign investment
Capital accumulation in non-tradable goods and services sectors
Lack of competition in several sectors
Low levels of innovation and productivity growth
High levels of youth and long-term unemployment
Restrictions on the market for corporate control
Protection of several sectors of the economy
Weak conditions to entrepreneurial activity
Poor functioning of the justice
system
Rigidity of the labor market
Insufficient conditions to foster economic growth
Obstacles Consequences
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Disappointing performance of the Portuguese economy
Source: Eurostat
In the period 1999-2010, the GDP of Portugal grew at an annual average rate of 1%, compared with 1.4% in the euro area
GDP – Portugal and some of its European partners 2000 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Germany IrelandGreece SpainFrance ItalyEA -17 Portugal
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THE ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM
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Statement by the EC, ECB and IMF on the Fourth Review Mission to Portugal: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12203.htm
After the 4th Review (completed in June 4) the program
implementation was on track
Adjustment Program agreed with the IMF, EC and ECB in April 2011
The Economic Adjustment Program covers the financing needs of General Government for the period 2011 to mid-2014.
It comprises a financial package amounting to EUR 78 billion in loans, including EUR 12 billion for banking sector recapitalization.
Each disbursement depends on the technical mission’s quarterly assessment about Portugal’s performance on the implementation of the Adjustment Program.
(1) Net issuances Source: IGCP, May 2012
Financial package EUR Billions Key facts
(1)
20,6
4,1 53,3
To be disbursed 5th Disebursement (July 2012) Already disbursed
EFSF
18,4 IMF
EFSM
14,9
20,0
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A balanced Program to cope with the major challenges of the Portuguese economy
The Economic Adjustment Program protects Government financing from market pressures, allowing an orderly adjustment of imbalances and time to build up confidence and credibility.
Fiscal consolidation Putting fiscal policy on a
sustainable path
Structural transformation Implementing structural reforms to contribute to potential growth
Deleveraging and financial stability
Reduction of debt and financing needs of the economy
The Economic Adjustment Program
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Main macroeconomic indicators 4th Review, June 2012
Source: Ministry of Finance, June 2012
2011 2012 2013 GDP and components (in real terms, %) GDP -1,6 -3,0 0,2 Private Consumption -3,9 -6,0 -0,5 Public Consumption -3,9 -3,2 -2,6 Investment (GFCF) -11,4 -12,2 -0,5 Exports of goods and services 7,4 3,5 3,5 Imports of goods and services -5,5 -6,2 0,9 Prices (%) HICP 3,6 2,7 1,1 Current and Capital Account (% GDP) Current Account -6,4 -3,9 -3,4 Current plus Capital Account -5,2 -2,7 -2,2 Labor market (%) Unemployment rate 12,7 15,5 15,9 Fiscal accounts (% GDP) Budget balance -4,2 -4,5 -3,0 Public debt 107,8 114,4 118,6
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At the start of the Program (in May 2011), Portugal faced a very uncertain outlook
Reducing uncertainty: Portugal is delivering in all fronts
Weakening of political support for the Program
Unfavorable macro-economic developments
Missing the fiscal targets
Uncertainty regarding the stability of the financial sector
Insufficient pace of structural reforms
Broad political consensus Social support to the Program
Milder recession than expected Stronger than expected external adjustment Dynamic exports
Major reduction in overall and structural
deficits Progress in institutional reforms
Increase in banks’ capital Reduction of credit-to-deposit ratio Increase in transparency: on-site inspections
Success of privatizations process Labor market tripartite agreement Broad range of implemented measures
1
2
3
4
5
Main risks Major outcomes
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A turning point in Treasury financing Portuguese Treasury Bills
(1) The first auction maturity is 11 months Note: Auction announcement date Source: IGCP
Weighted average yield Percentage
2012 2011
4,1
4,34,3
4,95,05,05,04,95,0
4,95,05,04,94,9
5,0
2,2
3,8
4,9
2,9
4,34,5
5,35,35,2
5,05,05,0
2,9
4,7
3,73,9
4,95,0
4,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
Oct 05
Sep 21
Sep 07
Aug 17
Aug 03
Jul 20
Jan 18
Feb 15
Feb 01
Jul 16
Jun 15
Oct 19
Apr 04
Mar 21
May 02
Dec 07
Jan 04
Oct 19
Nov 16
Nov 02
12 months 6 months 3 months
18 months
(1)
First T-Bill issue not totally covered by program funding
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Bonds prices not representative
(1) Intra-day quotes Source: IGCP
Yield to maturity(1)
Percentage
March 15
April 13
Maturity date
T-Bonds
2,2 2,3
4,9
2,4 2,7
3,1
3,7
11,6
16,0 16,1 15,6
16,6 16,2 15,9 16,0 15,6 15,0
1,7 2,2 2,3
2,3
2,9
3,1
3,2 3,7
9,7
4,5
14,0
13,8 13,5
14,7 13,7 14,1 14,5
14,6 13,8
2,5
2,1
4,9
2,4 2,5 2,8
3,1
3,2
3,7
5,5 4,5
10,2
14,2 13,6
13,7 13,7 13,6 14,4
13,8
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
April 17
High volatility in bond market prices
Bond prices distorted by low liquidity
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FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
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Nether-lands
4,7
France
5,2
United Kingdom
8,3
Spain
8,5
Greece
9,1
Ireland
13,1
Germany
1,0
Austria
2,6
Belgium
3,7
Italy
3,9
Euro Area
4,1
Portugal
4,2
Overall deficit in 2011 close to euro area average
Source: Eurostat, “Excessive Deficit Procedure”, April 2012
General Government Deficit 2011
As percentage of GDP
Without the partial transfer of banks’ pension funds, overall deficit would be 7,7% of GDP
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Austria
1,2
United Kingdom
1,5
Ireland
1,9
Germa-ny
2,2
Portugal
2,8
Greece
3,3
Belgium
-0,5
Nether-lands
-0,3
Italy
0,4
Spain
0,7
Euro Area
1,2
France
1,2
Portugal’s fiscal adjustment was sizable in 2011… Fiscal Adjustment 2010-2011 Change in general government cyclically adjusted overall balance Percentage points of GDP
(1) Portugal cyclically adjusted deficit in corrected for the transfer of banks’ pension funds (3,5% of GDP) Source: IMF, "Fiscal Monitor", April 2012
(1)
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-0,1
Ireland
1,8
Greece
2,2
Italy
2,4
Spain
3,0
Portugal
4,2
Austria Germany
0,6
France
0,7
United Kingdom
1,2
Euro Area
1,4
Nether-lands
1,5
Belgium
1,7
… and will be stronger in 2012 Fiscal Adjustment 2011-2012 Change in general government cyclically adjusted overall balance Percentage points of GDP
(1) Portugal cyclically adjusted deficit in 2011 corrected for the transfer of banks’ pension funds (3,5% of GDP) Source: IMF, "Fiscal Monitor", April 2012
(1)
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93
107 112
115 114 113 111
103
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
93
107 112
115 114 113 111
103
145
165 163 167
161
153
145
138
130
123
117
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
93
107 112
115 114 113 111
103
93
105
114 118 118
115 113
145
165 163 167
161
153
145
138
130
123
117
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Portuguese public debt is sustainable…
(1) Request for Extended Arrangement; March 9, 2012 (2) 5th Review; February, 13 2012 (3) 3rd Review; March 21, 2012 Source: IMF, Staff Reports
Feb-Mar 2012 projections Government Debt Sustainability Framework: Baseline As percentage of GDP
Portugal - 3rd Review(3)
Ireland - 5th Review(2)
Greece - 2nd Program(1)
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90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Portuguese public debt is sustainable… Jun 2012 projections
Government Debt Sustainability Framework: Baseline As percentage of GDP
Source: (1) IMF, Staff Report, 3rd Review; March 21, 2012 (3) Ministry of Finance, Jun 2012 (2) IMF, Staff Report, 5th Review; February, 13 2012 (4) DOF EDP & SPU Return, Jun 2012
93,3
107,8
114,4 118,6 117,7 115,7
92,5
108,2
117,5
120,3 119,5 117,4
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3rd Review(1) Portugal:
5th Review(2)
4th Review(3)
6th Review(4) Ireland:
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GDP growth scenarios Annual percentage changes
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations; ECB Monthly Bulletin March 2012
… under different growth scenarios Baseline scenario Adverse growth scenario Impact of structural reforms Baseline with smaller consolidation effort
Public debt scenarios As percentage of GDP
ECB Projections
Government debt dynamics for Portugal quickly stabilize in all scenarios
Without taking into account the impact of structural reforms on growth: debt fall below 100% of GDP in 2020
In an adverse scenario of higher GDP decline in the short-term: debt reach a maximum of 124% of GDP in 2013 and decline to below 110% of GDP in 2020;
Taking into account the impact of structural reforms:
- Real GDP growth increases from 2015 onwards (3% after 2017 against 1.6% in the baseline scenario)
- Large impact on debt dynamics that fall below 80% of GDP in 2020
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Important progress in the institutional reform front NON-EXHAUSTIVE
Public financial manage ment
Public Adminis tration
SOEs and PPPs
Approval of the Spending Commitments’ Control Law
Adoption of medium-term expenditure ceilings Establishment of the Portuguese Public Finance
Council Adjustment Program for the Autonomous Region of
Madeira Creation of the new Tax and Customs Authority
Improve budgetary control across all levels of Public Administration
Reduction of arrears Changes to national law in order to include
the golden rule and the debt reduction rule from the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the EMU
Develop a public financial management strategy for the next three years
Next challenges Major actions
Reduction of management positions (27%) and administrative units in central administration (40%)
Negotiations with public sector labor unions on working time flexibility and geographical mobility
Extend streamline measures to regional and local administration
Comprehensive review of public pay scales
Significant cost reductions in SOE (e.g.: voluntary redundancy programs)
New fiscally-prudent PPPs institutional framework: enhanced role of MoF
Ongoing revision of all PPP contracts by a top-tier accounting firm (to be completed by end-June)
Operational balance for SOEs as a whole by end-2012
Conditional on audit results, renegotiation of PPP contracts
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DELEVERAGING AND FINANCIAL STABILITY
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-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Capital accountCurrent and capital accountsCurrent account
-9,9 -9,0
-6,7
-4,1 -3,4
-2,7 -2,2
-10,0
-6,5
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Stronger than expected external adjustment
(1) Bank of Portugal, BP Stat, March 2012; (2) IMF, Staff report: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, May 2011
Forecast(2)
Actual(1)
Better performance of current account than initial projections Current and capital account close to balance
Balance of payments EUR Millions
Current account As a percentage of GDP
2010 2011 2012
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-8,4%
-4,0%
0,1%
-12,9%
-7,2%
-3,7%
0,5%
3,5%
-9,9% -9,0%
-6,7%
-4,1% -3,4%
-2,7%
-10,0%
-6,5%
-14,0%
-12,0%
-10,0%
-8,0%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4
1st Program (1)(t=1978)
2nd Program (1)(t=1983)
3rd Program - Forecast (2)(t= 2011)
3rd Program - Actual (3)(t= 2011)
Fast correction of external imbalances under adjustment programs
Current account As a percentage of GDP, t = first year of the Adjustment Programs
(1) Bank of Portugal, Long series (2) IMF, Staff report: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, May 2011 (3) Bank of Portugal, BP Stat, March 2012
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Significant contribution from exports growth
Source: Bank of Portugal
Strong exports growth Exports’ market share is recovering
External demand and market share Annual rate of change
Exports Index (2006=100)
(p)
131
120
111
122
116
100
122
108
95
113 110
100
119
103
89
109 107
100
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
201120102009200820072006
Services
Total Exports
Goods
Source: Bank of Portugal, Economic Bulletin, Spring 2012
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4% 4% 4%
6%
3%
5%
4%
6% 5%
19%
14%
20%
5% 5% 5%
8%
5% 4%
4% 4%
2%
13% 14%
19%
6% 6% 7%
8% 9%
3% 3% 4%
5%
9%
13% 14%
Pharmaceuticalsand OtherChemicals
Prepared Foodand Tobacco
Plastics, Rubberproducts
Base Metals Oil and OtherMinerals
Wood, Cork Ceramic, Stoneand Glass
Footwear,Others
Pulp, Paper Textile Products Vehicles andparts
Electrical andMechanicalMachinery
2000 2005 2011
Export profile is considerably changing
Source: National Statistics Office
Export composition by product, Goods As percentage of total
Increase in weight
Higher product diversification
Higher diversification: no group representing more than 15% of total
Traditional industries substituted by more technology intensive industries (Portugal is not a “pajama republic”)
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68%
33%
28%
13%
11%
7%
22%
17%
20%
8%
13%
18%
4%
-7%
1%
-3%
14%
3%
4%
1%
1%
1%
3%
4%
4%
5%
6%
12%
14%
25%
1%
1%
3%
6%
4%
7%
3%
13%
13%
28%
China
Brazil
Belgium
UnitedStates
Italy
UnitedKingdom
Angola
France
Germany
Spain
1%
1%
3%
4%
4%
5%
6%
12%
14%
25%
1%
1%
3%
6%
4%
7%
3%
13%
13%
28%
China
Brazil
Belgium
UnitedStates
Italy
UnitedKingdom
Angola
France
Germany
Spain
Export profile is considerably changing Higher geographical diversification
Exports destination by country, Goods As percentage of total
Average annual growth rate
2006-2011 2010-2011
Source: National Statistics Office
2006 2011
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Export profile is considerably changing
Source: INE and GEE, “Boletim Mensal de Economia Portuguesa”, April 2012
Export composition by technological intensity, Goods As percentage of total
Higher technological intensity
12
2002
44
15
31
10
2001
45
14
44
11
2000
36
22
31
11
2006
36
22
31
12
2005
30
38
2007
14
31
10
20
31
12
2004
39
17
31
12
2003
42
16
31
Low
Medium- low
Medium- high
High
2011
35
25
31
8
2010
37
24
31
8
2009
39
23
29
8
2008
36
23
31
11
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International investment position is reversing
Source: Bank of Portugal and INE
International Investment Position As a percentage of GDP
-104-107-111
-96-89
-79-67-63-58-55
-46-39
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2004 2003 2002 2000 2001
Monetary Authorities
General Government
Financial Sector
Total Economy
Non-financial corporations and households
2011 2010 2009 2005 2008 2006 2007
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In 2012 Q1, exports of goods continued dynamic
Source: GEE, “Sintese Estatística de Comércio Internacional”, May 2012
Exports of goods, 2012 Q1 y-o-y growth (%)
8,3
13,513,6
X
Mar Feb Jan
3,9
2,0
1,9
1,7
1,20,9
11,6
Machinery Transport equipment
Mineral fuels
and oils
Jan-Mar Others Agricultural products and food
Ores and metals
73,8 14,5 13,1 14,5 11,4
Top contributors to growth Percentage points
Jan-Mar y-o-y %
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Markets outside EU are being the main contributors
Source: GEE, “Sintese Estatística de Comércio Internacional”, May 2012
2,60,41,4
1,4
1,70,40,6
0,61,0
1,5
7,5
4,1
USA Extra EU
Others Belgium United Kingdom
France Angola Others Morocco China Germany Intra EU
Total
11,6
5,4 10,7 7,6 11,4 20,1 32,3 50,5 29,8 186,2 53,9
Jan-Mar y-o-y %
Exports of goods, Jan-Mar 2012 Contribution to growth (p.p.)
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Measures contributing to a more favorable environment to credit expansion
Liquidity support at longer maturities and broadening of eligible collateral Banks capital augmentation plans of three major banks already announced Payment of arrears in the health and regional/local administrations sectors in the context of the partial transfer of banks pension funds to the State Measures to discourage evergreening of doubtful loans
Action
ECB measures
Banks capitalization
Partial transfer of banks pension funds’
BdP supervision
Outcome
Help to improve banks liquidity position Help to improve banks solvency Positive impact on the finance of others sector Channel funds to more productive sectors of the economy
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 35
0,00
0,25
0,50
0,75
1,00
1,25
1,50
1,75
2,00
2,25
ECB repo rate 1m
3m
12m
Reduction of the reserve requirements ratio: from 2% to 1%
Broadening of eligible collateral
Easing of bank liquidity pressures
Source: Bank of Portugal, May 2012
ECB Measures (8 December) Euribor Percentage
Longer-term refinancing operations: 36 months
(December 22 and March 1)
ECB LTRO 36m
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 36
Recapitalization of the banking system
Note: BSSF – Bank Solvency Support Facility Source: Ministry of Finance, June 2012
Injection of core tier 1 capital
Each bank will exceed the EBA’s capital requirements coming into force at end-June
The participating banks will become amongst the most highly capitalized in Europe
They will be well positioned to
ensure the continued access to credit for productive and tradable sectors of the Portuguese economy
BCP and BPI will also each commit at least €30 million per year to invest in the equity of SME
€1.65 bn
Banks
€3.5 bn
€1.5 bn
(BSSF)
(BSSF)
Ministry of Finance Announcement: June 4, 2012
The State remains prepared to support any other banks that meet the BSSF’s criteria and will analyze any recapitalization plans that may be presented
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 37
Core Tier 1(1), Portuguese Banking System
Percentage
6,8 7,8 7,9 7,8 8,1 8,7
9,6
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q42011 2010 2009 2008
End-2012 target: 10%
Core Tier 1 target of 9% (EBA criteria) to be reached by end-June 2012, following a prudent evaluation of sovereign debt exposures
Special on-site inspections confirmed the robustness of capital adequacy
Regulatory framework was improved: legislation on early intervention, resolution and deposit insurance
Key achievements
Portuguese banks are stronger than before the crisis
(1) Excluding BPN Source: Bank of Portugal, April 2012
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 38
151 152 152 157
147
137 129
162 162 163 167
158
149
139
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Adjustment is progressing as planned
Important contribution of higher deposits and sizeable asset sales
Deleveraging process is ongoing
Key achievements
120
Loans-to-deposits ratio, Portuguese Banking System Percentage
(1) About 85% of credit market share Source: Bank of Portugal, April 2012
Other banking groups contribution
Top 8 banks (1)
2011 2010 2009 2008
Indicative target in 2014
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 39
150000
170000
190000
210000
230000
250000
270000
Greece Ireland Portugal
Depositors’ trust in the Portuguese banking system
Note: BS reference sector breakdown- MFIs excluding ESCB; BS counterpart sector- Non-MFIs; Data type- Outstanding amounts at the end of the period (stocks) Source: ECB; May 2012
Total deposits (excluding deposits from financial institutions) EUR Millions
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STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 41
Economic growth: importance of the Structural Transformation Agenda
Opening to foreign investment and to the challenges of international competition
Competitive location for physical and human capital
Fully integration in the Single European Market
Development of a stability culture
Judicial system
Broad range of reforms Structural transformation
Confidence, credibility and justice
Openness, competition and competitiveness
Entrepreneurship, innovation and labor market flexibility
Limited State and economic democracy
Network industries: energy, telecommunications, transports
Competition Housing Market
Labor market Education and training
Privatizations Special rights of the State Public procurement Administrative burden
Pillars
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Portugal needs a broad transformation agenda
(1) The heatmap is constructed based on a variety of structural indicators from alternative sources in order to flag areas where a country has the greatest need to implement structural reforms. For a discussion of the methodology and detailed components, see IMF, 2010d, “Cross-Cutting Themes in Employment Experiences During the Crisis”, IMF Report SM/10/274 Source: OECD; World Economic Forum; Fraser Institute and IMF staff calculations
Structural reforms gaps in European economies: a heatmap(1)
Labor market inefficiency
Business regulations
Network regulation
Retail sector regulation
Profess. services regulation
Institutions and contracts
Human capital
Infrastructure
Innovation
Medium term
Long term
DE FR NL BE IT ES PT GR AT FI IE DK SE UK US JP Selected comparators Euro area countries
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 43
0
5
10
15
20%
Structural reforms: long-run potential impact
Source: Bouis and Duval (2011), OECD Economics Department Working Paper n.º 835; Gomes et al (2011), Banco de Portugal Working Paper n.º 13
2 empirical studies for Portugal
Approach
No model: use empirical results from several studies
Broad range of reforms that include reforms in product and labor market and reforms of benefit, tax and retirements systems
Multi-country DSGE Model
Reforms of labor and services market
Bouis and Duval (2011)
Gomes et al (2011)
GDP per capita, increase in level in percent at 10-year horizon
PT ~13% (> 5% after 5 years)
20
15
10
5
0
Results
Increase in long-term output of 7.8% , after 7 years (8.6% in case of cross-country coordination of reforms in the euro area)
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 44
In-depth labor market reform Agreement on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment
The agreement between the Government, Unions and Enterprises Associations: an important step to implement reforms in an environment of social dialogue
Implemented measures
Tackle labor
market segmentation
Foster job creation
Ease transition of workers across firms and sectors
Objectives
Reduction of 4 national holidays Elimination of 3 extra days of vacation Decrease in 50% of compensation for overtime
work and eliminate compensatory time off (previously 25% of overtime worked hours)
Restrictions on automatic extension of collective agreements
Implementation of individual and group working time management mechanisms
Reduction of restrictions to individual dismissal Reduction of severance payments to align with
EU average Implementation of labor arbitration mechanisms
“Estímulo 2012” program with incentives for
hiring of medium and long term unemployed in return for on job training
“Impulso Jovem” program specifically designed to help youth unemployed
Reducing labor costs
Labor market flexibili zation
NON-EXHAUSTIVE
Active Labor Market Policies
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 45
Reduce mobile termination rates Broad access of all operators to existing
networks Auction access to new networks (4G mobile
network)
Speed up liberalization of Gas and Electricity Revise remuneration scheme of co-generation
to accelerate converge to market-based pricing Redesign Power Guarantee mechanism Foster cross border market integration to
increase competition
Revise margins of pharmacies Set targets for reduction of pharmaceutical
profit margins Increase share of generic drugs
Increasing tradable sector competitiveness by reducing non-tradable sectors excessive costs cascaded through the economy
Implemented measures
Broad product market reform
Reduce excessive mark-ups in network industries and non-tradable
Telecommunications
Energy
Health
Objective
NON-EXHAUSTIVE
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 46
Implemented measures
Improving business environment
Foster investment and innovation
Incentive a more efficient use of resources
Targeted measures to accelerate the resolution of the backlog: 50,000 enforcement cleared since November
Adoption of a law on arbitration to facilitate out-of-court settlement New insolvency code and corporate recovery, focusing on speed,
simplification and creation of an extra-judicial phase of corporate recovery
Approval of a new Competition Law harmonized with the EU legal competition framework which will come into force early July
Strengthen the power of the Competition Authority Set up of a specialized court on Competition, Regulation and
Supervision (already in operation)
Liberalization of regulated professions’ access and exercise Fostering the development of the European single market for services and
labor: already transposed 32 out of 69 legal acts regarding services and have completed all aspects of the qualifications directive
Reduction of firms’ administrative burden: licensing requirements and other legal formalities
Approval of a new Urban Lease Law which is expected to come into force in October
Judicial system
Competition
Other services
Objective
NON-EXHAUSTIVE
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 47
Privatization program as a flagship in the agenda
(1) Sale of “Caixa Geral de Depósitos” participation of 1%;; sale yet to be materialized but already decided: tag along to another shareholder’s sale (2) Concession (3) Expected completion date by “Caixa Geral de Depósitos” Source: Ministry of Finance, June 2012
Electricity distribution
Energy retail and production
Mail distribution
Water distribution
Air infrastructure
Railway logistics
Seguros
Insurance
Seguros
Energy retail and production
2011 2012 2013 Q1
Air transport Television broadcasting
(1) (2)
Q3 Q2
(3)
Q4
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 48
40%
Asia: State Grid Arabia: Oman Oil Company
EUR 593M: average premium of 33.6% per share1
EUR 1,000M through Chinese
banking entities
Strategic plan for national economy development (e.g. I&D center construction)
21,35%
Asia: China Three Gorges Europe: E.ON Latin America: Eletrobras
and Cemig EUR 2,693M: premium of
53.6% per share1
EUR 2,000M through
Chinese banking entities
EUR 2,000M until 2015 in wind farms
Privatization results above expectations
Bidders
Revenue
Financing
1 Considering the closing price of the day before the Council of Ministers decision
Investment
% Equity
The proceeds amount to about 60% of the initial estimate of privatizations revenues foreseen in the Adjustment Program
Selected bidders
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 49
CONCLUSION: HOW WILL IT WORK?
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 50
The Program addresses fundamental imbalances and deficiencies
Restoring credibility and confidence
(1) Ministry of Finance”, February 2012
The adjustment is inevitable
Solid starting point for the Program
Broad popular
and social support for adjustment
Elimination of budget deficit on a durable way – supported by a new fiscal policy framework (at national and European level)
Elimination of external deficit – current and capital account is projected to be in surplus in 2014(1)
Deep and frontloaded
structural reform agenda that will boost potential output and competitiveness
Robustness of the overall Program
The Program works disregarding positive impact of structural reforms on potential growth
Structural reforms are likely to speed up adjustment
Gradual credibility buildup
The Program shelters government financing from the vagaries of financial markets
Quantitative objectives and targets steered and monitored over time (9 reviews until Sep. 2013)
Compliance with the Program will push for a gradual change in markets’ expectations and perceptions