Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish...

35
Minister’s Advisory Council on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … B.C.’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology, and pressures. Brian E Riddell, Pacific Salmon Foundation, Vancouver, B.C. (contacts: [email protected] 604-763-1899 ) www.psf.ca

Transcript of Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish...

Page 1: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Minister’s Advisory Council on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017

A brief on … B.C.’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology, and pressures.

Brian E Riddell, Pacific Salmon Foundation, Vancouver, B.C. (contacts: [email protected] 604-763-1899 )

www.psf.ca

Page 2: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 3: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Pacific salmon have a complex life history using

freshwater, estuary, and marine environments.

Homing … adaptation to local habitats has led to

many different populations within each species.

Over 9,300 combinations of species and streams in

BC and Yukon.

But after 120 years of harvest, habitat losses, and

development pressures; ~85% of the original

spawning ‘groups’ remain and provide the

critical diversity in salmon to face the future.

But there is no question that BC’s salmon are

under increasing pressures!

> 99% of weight from Ocean environment

Page 4: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Three keys to understanding the state of Pacific salmon:

1. PRODUCTION = ANNUAL ABUNDANCE (CATCH IS DETERMINED BY ABUNDANCE, ALLOCATION, AND RISK)

2. PRODUCTIVITY IS THE RATE OF PRODUCTION … offspring produced per parent and defines the appropriate rate of harvest (relates to quality/quantity of habitats).

3. DIVERSITY (basis of genetic variation) … distribution of spawners in their habitats (only means to “manage” for the future)

Page 6: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 7: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Pressures …

Page 8: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 9: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,0001

92

51

92

71

92

91

93

11

93

31

93

51

93

71

93

91

94

11

94

31

94

51

94

71

94

91

95

11

95

31

95

51

95

71

95

91

96

11

96

31

96

51

96

71

96

91

97

11

97

31

97

51

97

71

97

91

98

11

98

31

98

51

98

71

98

91

99

11

99

31

99

51

99

71

99

92

00

12

00

32

00

52

00

72

00

92

01

12

01

3

Historical Salmon Catches in British Columbia

Salmon (metric tonnes) 4-pt. Average

Page 10: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Trends in commercial salmon catch and total salmon spawning numbers within same years (1956 to 2002). Since mid-1990s, there has been a progressive reduction in fishing to protect spawning escapements (due to reduce ocean productivity and new conservation policies.) 10

Page 11: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Logging history in BC destabilizes landscapes, provides road access to wide areas, and an fuel fires. Unstable slopes and streams lead to loss of small streams, debris torrents, and heating of streams.

Page 12: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Justice Cohen’s “Elephant in the room” concerning the sustainability of Fraser River sockeye salmon was climate change.

Page 13: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Climate warming affects: Freshwater sources, seasonality of flows, quality and quantity of freshwater … and ultimately groundwater.

Page 14: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

MPB Plus , Forest fires, invasive species and pathogens, & changes biological communities.

Page 15: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

PLUS, change to marine environments …

Estuaries: Sea level rise and interaction with extreme flows

Strait of Georgia: warming, acidification, oxygen depletion zones

Pacific Ocean: coastal up-wellings, N Pacific feeding area (base of marine food chain,

harmful algal blooms, distribution of fish communities)

Page 16: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

1/27/2017

16

2015 Returns were all about the BLOB!

Page 17: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

… so how do we manage for CHANGE?

1. Inventory of BC salmon & baseline data • Conservation Units (populations and habitats) • Core salmon data (Shifting Baselines) • Environmental monitoring and TEK

2. Management Framework and Processes • Wild Salmon Policy (2005) for Canada • Allocation Policies & legal framework • Production forecasts and annual decision process

(advice to Minister) • In-season monitoring and decisions. • Regulate fishing.

3. Post-season reviews and biological assessments.

Page 18: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

To interpret &/or respond in any one year requires: A time series of observations An understanding of the biological processes and/or habitat changes Measures of uncertainty and risk … variability and impacts Accountability (analysis and reporting)

0 5 10 15 20

Trend

0 5 10 15 20

Variability

0 5 10 15 20

Pattern

Page 19: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 20: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

19

49

19

51

19

53

19

55

19

57

19

59

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

Dev

iati

on

s

Brood year or Spawning year

Marine survival deviation from Average (0.088 or 8.8%)

Page 21: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Canadas’s Policy for the Conservation of Wild Pacific Salmon (2005) provides the appropriate framework for salmon management: 1) Standardized Monitoring of Wild Salmon

Status 2) Assessment of Habitat Status 3) Inclusion of Ecosystem Values and

Monitoring 4) Integrated Strategic Planning 5) Annual Program Delivery 6) Performance Review

Still not implemented today!

Page 22: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Habitat diversity over the landscape

Local Salmon populations

Localized impacts

Cumulative Production of salmon

CLIMATE AND OCEANS Annual variation within longer term change, causing >>> increases in uncertainty and numbers

Demes

Objectives of the WSP: 1.Safeguard the genetic diversity of

wild Pacific salmon. 2.Maintain habitat and ecosystem

integrity, and 3.Manage fisheries for sustainable

benefits.

Page 23: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 24: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Overall messages: 1. Pacific salmon are distributed throughout British

Columbia’s coast … there are no “salmon-free corridors” … must manage the interactions of wild, hatchery, and aquaculture salmonids.

2. The interaction of wild fish with aquaculture (in open-net pens) is inevitable … they will exchange microbes but the extent of risk remains undefined.

3. Sea lice are natural parasites on Pacific salmon, but sea lice on young-of-the-year salmons is not … but the linkage can likely be managed.

4. The state of wild salmon is an element of risk in these discussions … healthy, abundant populations will be more resilient.

5. Of all the aquaculture producing countries of the world, the greatest risk (potential magnitude of loss and impact) to wild fish is in undoubtedly British Columbia!

Page 25: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

How can genomic technologies be applied to study infectious disease in salmon, impacts on wild salmon productivity, and

interactions between cultured and wild fish?

Strategic Salmon Health Initiative (Genome BC - PSF – DFO Science)

96 x 96 cell array = 9,219 results per array!

Dr. Kristi Miller-Saunders

Page 26: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

The Domino effect of Pacific salmon …

Page 27: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Summary

1. Climate Change will reduce productivity (& harvest), increase uncertainty in production, and disrupt our present management processes/agreements.

2. CC necessitates focus on Diversity (abundance and distribution within CU’s), on habitat conservation and restoration (including WATER), and on consistency of monitoring, evaluation and reporting. (manage risk)

3. Planning and Mitigation for climate change should (1) protect productive salmon habitats, (2) restore habitats to sustain production including estuaries, and (3) improve management of BC’s water as expect from BC’s new Water Sustainability Act (2014). (implementation)

4. Increase research into hatchery production and aquaculture for increased food security, and to manage risks to B.C.’s wild salmon.

5. Prepare!

Page 28: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 29: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 30: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Thanks

Page 31: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,
Page 32: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

People on the landscape

Local governments and community organizations

Federal, Provincial, and First Nation governments

International Agreements

The potential importance of people in the salmon landscape and the governance hierarchy may seem obvious …. but it has not be fully exploited.

We are all in this together!

Page 33: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4

Recru

its p

roduced

Salmon Spawning abundance

A schematic Production curve … how many can be harvested?

Max Harvest = A -B

A

B

C C = Spawners required

B = fish required to replace spawners

A = Expected production in next generation

Page 34: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4

Ad

ult

s P

rod

uce

d (

Mill

ion

s)

Effective Female spawners, Millions of females

Chilko sockeye production data, 1949 to 2009 Brood years.

Page 35: Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, …...Minister’s Advisory ouncil on Finfish Aquaculture, January 19, 2017 A brief on … ..’s Pacific salmon resource, ecology,

Change is happening … it is inevitable, and will progress from south to north.

It will be compounded by extreme events and disrupted habitats. It will change the timing of events and phenology of development; with reductions in

Productivity (the rate of production that determines the rate of fishing). Biological communities will change with invasive species and increased disease risks. Policies and allocation agreements will have to adapt. Pacific salmon will evolve (adaptability) but at what pace and loss? Fitness will be

temporarily reduced with loss of salmon production.