MINI GRID COSTING AND INNOVATION - ATA Insights · MINI GRID COSTING AND INNOVATION MINI GRIDS FOR...
Transcript of MINI GRID COSTING AND INNOVATION - ATA Insights · MINI GRID COSTING AND INNOVATION MINI GRIDS FOR...
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MINI GRID COSTING AND INNOVATIONMINI GRIDS FOR HALF A BILLION PEOPLE
Chris GreacenGlobal Facility on Mini Grids
Learning EventAccra, Ghana
June 26, 2019
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Our data set: 53 mini grids
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Total cost of mini grids per kWfirm as a function of firm power output
2
$3900
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Median cost $3,900 per kWfirm and coming down
3
$3900
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Total costs per customer $730 to $2000 for most mini grids
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Portion of CAPEX costs
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PV module costs declining
Industry benchmark $270 per kWp
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Cost of (lead acid) batteries increasing…
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y = 21,186x - 42465R² = 0,0614
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$/kW
h
Year in operation
Lineal (without lithium ion)
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But Li-ion battery costs are falling
8
y = 21,186x - 42465R² = 0,0614
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$/kW
h
Year in operation
Lineal (without lithium ion)
Tesla projected pack price 2020 $100
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Power electronics getting cheaper
9
Cost of battery inverters, 2011–18
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Geospatial technologies have decreased the cost of preparation and planning by an order of magnitude
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HOMER modeling of LCOE: $0.55 to $0.85/kWh
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$-
$0,100
$0,200
$0,300
$0,400
$0,500
$0,600
$0,700
$0,800
$0,900
Customers:1099; Firm kW:
294
Customers:157; Firm kW:
81
Customers:156; Firm kW:
144
Customers:156; Firm kW:
57
Customers:133; Firm kW:
86
Customers: 5;Firm kW: 18.4
Customers: 39;Firm kW: 29
Customers:1421; Firm kW:
375
Customers:130; Firm kW:
12.5
LCO
E
40% load factor Baseline
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Increasing income-generating uses can decrease LCOE by 25%
12
$-
$0,100
$0,200
$0,300
$0,400
$0,500
$0,600
$0,700
$0,800
$0,900
Customers:1099; Firm kW:
294
Customers:157; Firm kW:
81
Customers:156; Firm kW:
144
Customers:156; Firm kW:
57
Customers:133; Firm kW:
86
Customers: 5;Firm kW: 18.4
Customers: 39;Firm kW: 29
Customers:1421; Firm kW:
375
Customers:130; Firm kW:
12.5
LCO
E
40% load factor Baseline
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0102030405060708090
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
LCOE = $0.55/kWhPerc
enta
ge o
f pea
k lo
ad
Time (hr)
22% load factor
13
Increasing income-generating uses can decrease LCOE by 25%
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Increasing income-generating uses can decrease LCOE by 25%
0102030405060708090
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
LCOE = $0.55/kWh
LCOE = $0.41/kWh
Perc
enta
ge o
f pea
k lo
ad
Time (hr)
22% load factor 40% load factor
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Increasing income-generating uses can decrease LCOE by 25%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
LCOE = $0.55/kWh
LCOE = $0.41/kWh
LCOE = $0.35/kWh
Perc
enta
ge o
f pea
k lo
ad
Time (hr)
22% load factor 40% load factor 80% load factor
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Summary
• Solar hybrid mini grids median price: $3,900/kWfirm
• Component costs vary significantly
• Capital costs falling• PV• Battery• Power electronics
• Preparation and planning costs falling
• LCOE varied from $0.55 to $0.85/kWh (median $0.66) with 22% load factor
• Increasing income-generating uses can decrease LCOE by 25% or more
• LCOE mini grid with high productive use can drop to $0.22/kwh by 2030
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THANK YOU
Questions / Discussion
Any mini grid cost data you can share?
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Cost of solar modules
Slide 18
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BATTERY COSTS
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LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY (LCOE): IMPACT OF CAPEX SUBSIDIES
Slide 20
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COST OF UTILITY ELECTRICITY IN AFRICA ($2019 PER KWH)
World Bank 2016. Making Power Affordable for Africa and Viable for Its Utilities. https://www.esmap.org/node/57463
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The data
22
Feature Average Minimum MaximumInstalled “firm” capacity (kW)
115 8 375
Installed solar capacity (kWp)
88 9 312
Number of customers
253 39 1,421
Inclusion of diesel generator
PV/diesel hybrids: 38Solar PV only: 15
Region Asia: 37Africa: 16
Business model (for 24 projects for which data was available)
Private: 10Public utility: 8Community: 5
Private-public partnership: 1
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Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) modeling
Base case
High productive use
• Load factor 22% 40%
High productive use &2020 equipment cost
CAPEX subsidies
• 20%
• 40%
• 60%
Slide 23
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HOMER LCOE modeling –Impact of high productive use
Slide 24
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LCOE: Base case vs. 2030 benchmark prices + productive use
Slide 25
40% load factor, 2030 costs
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Cost of Utility Electricity in Africa ($2019 per kWh)
World Bank 2016. Making Power Affordable for Africa and Viable for Its Utilities. https://www.esmap.org/node/57463
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Levelized cost of energy (LCOE): impact of CAPEX subsidies
Slide 27
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Total cost of mini grids as a function of total firm AC power output
Slide 28
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Mini grid cost per kW of firm output, 2011–18
Slide 29
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Cost of lead acid battery as a function of battery capacity
Slide 31
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Market share of batteries by manufacturer
Slide 32
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
Num
ber
of m
ini g
rids
kWh
kWh (left-hand axis) number of mini grids (right-hand axis)
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Correlation between cost per customer and the number of customers per kilometer
Slide 33
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Cost of low-voltage distribution poles, by line type
Slide 34
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Cost of PV inverters/charge controllers
Slide 35
Industry benchmark:
$115/kW
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Cost of power houses
Slide 36
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Cost of project development, logistics, and installation
Slide 37
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Correlation between OPEX costs and number of customers
Slide 38
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Fuel, staff, and other operations and maintenance costs
Slide 39
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Portion of mini grid cost attributable to different components
Slide 40
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LCOE attributable to initial CAPEX vs OPEX and major replacements
Slide 41
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Industry benchmarks and 2020 cost projections
Slide 42
Mini grid component Average cost
Minimum cost
Maximum Cost
Mainstream industry
benchmark
Price estimate by
2020
Cost drivers and
InnovationsPV module ($ per kWp)
719 497 2,652 290a 240 b Solar farms & rooftop
solar
PV inverter ($ per kWp)
228 176 564 115c 80d Solar farms and rooftop
solar
Battery inverter ($ per kVA)
729 311 2,377 203e 142 EV
Lithium Ion battery ($ per kWh)
605 461 762 209h 150i EV
Lead Acid battery ($ per kWh)
240 126 348 147 127
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Surprises
Batteries and wooden poles are cheaper in Africa than Asia
Shipping containers as power houses are cheaper (and smaller) than custom-built structures
CAPEX subsidies
Slide 43
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Questions
What are mini grid costs?
What are component cost?
• Already operating
• Near future (2020)
What are the drivers of mini grid costs
What opportunities exist for cost savings?
What can data tell us about how can ministries, regulators, and development agencies work together to lower mini grid electricity cost?
Slide 44