Mindboggling Volatility, but Trading Ranges Persist

8/3/2019 Mindboggling Volatility, but Trading Ranges Persist

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

and commentary can be found http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl

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December 5, 2011 Mindboggl ing Volat i l i t y, but Trading Ranges Pers is t

Thanksgiving week was the weakest Thanksgiving Week for the Dow Industrial Average since

1932. Last week was one of the strongest weeks ever. This volatility falls perfectly within myyear end forecast that I made in early October; The October 4 th low at 10,404.49 is the low forthe year for the Dow Industrials, and the May 2nd high at 12,876.00 is the high for the year. Mymonthly and annual pivots protect the downside at 11,794 and 11,491 while my quarterly andweekly risky levels at 12,507 and 12,650 limit the upside. Also protecting the downside is a 30-Year US Treasury bond yield at 3%, down from 4 % in February. This decline in yield is theprimary reason why ValuEngine showed 65% of all stocks overvalued in February and 93% ofall stocks undervalued on October 4th.

10-Year Note (2.037) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.135, 2.414, 2.669and 2.690 with a daily pivot at 2.036, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.672 and 1.602.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1749.4) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1469.9, $1644.8 and $1,356.5with quarterly and daily pivots at $1738.4 and $1761.4, and weekly and monthly risky levels at

$1808.4 and $1873.8, and the September 6

th

all time high at $1923.7. The years low was $1535.0 seon September 26th.


Nymex Crude Oil ($101.01) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with a monthly value level a$86.20, quarterly, monthly and annual pivots at $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92, and weekly, semiannuarisky levels at $107.75, $103.93 and $107.90. The high and low for oil happened on the same days asthe Dow with the high at $114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.



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The Euro (1.3402) Daily and quarterly value levels are 1.3257 and 1.2598 with weekly, monthly andsemiannual risky levels at 1.3944, 1.3953, 1.4752 and 1.4872.


Weekly Dow: (12,019) Annual, and semiannual value levels are 11,491, 9,635 and 8,468 with dailyand monthly pivots at 11,823 and 11.794, and quarterly, weekly, and annual risky levels at 12,507,12,650 and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00.



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S&P 500 (1244.3) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with daily, annual and monthly value levels a1224.0, 1210.7 and 1211.8, semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, and quarterly, weekly and

annual risky levels at 1303.7, 1317.4 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58.NASDAQ (2627) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with monthly, daily and annual value levels at2588, 2580 and 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, and weekly and quarterly riskylevels at 2782 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2302) The YTD low is 2034.92 with monthly and daily value levels at 2282and 2273, semiannual value levels at 1951 and 1861, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 2426,2434 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42, and my annual risky level at 2590.

Dow Transports (4947) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with daily, monthly and semiannualvalue levels at 4812, 4752, 4335 and 3868, and annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 5179,5294 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7 th.

Russell 2000 (735.01) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with daily and monthly value levels at713.42 and 695.30, semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, and weekly, annual and quarterlyrisky levels at 795.55, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 on May 2nd.

The SOX (374.57) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with daily and monthly value levels at 359.69and 343.57, an annual value levels at 270.98, and weekly and quarterly risky level at 398.13 and417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.

Equity Fundamentals Stocks are undervalued, but 77.9% is well below the October 4 th 93.5%. 78.8% of all stocks are undervalued / 21.2% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4 th 93.5%

of all stocks were undervalued. Fifteen of sixteen sectors are undervalued by double-digit percentages. Only four are

undervalued by 21.2% to 23.9%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to45%. Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.

VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a FearlessPrediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

ValuTrader Model Portfolio If you want to learn how to Buy and Trade use this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C

ValuEngine Capital Management - Over the years many of my readers have asked for investmenthelp based upon ValuEngine and my technical analysis expertise. This is now possible through VECapital Management LLC. If you are a Registered Investment Advisor looking for new products to offe


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to your clients, let me know. If you have any questions, please respond to this email.

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slow

stochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions

Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share priceweakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiplelong position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions

Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple

short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share pricestrength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our productsand services visit www.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

Mindboggling Volatility, but Trading Ranges Persist

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