MILLENNIALS INSIDE THE BELTWAY - Hickok Cole · 2017-11-10 · from monthly rent for taxes and...
Transcript of MILLENNIALS INSIDE THE BELTWAY - Hickok Cole · 2017-11-10 · from monthly rent for taxes and...
MILLENNIALSINSIDE THE BELTWAYOPTIMISTIC URBANISTS | ULI WASHINGTON
COPYRIGHT URBAN LAND INSTITUTE WASHINGTON | HICKOK COLE ARCHITECTS 2015
INTRODUCTION
SURVEY OVERVIEW
HOUSING
NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
TRANSPORTATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
38% of DC Metro population are Millennials 25,000 Millennials moved into the District 2011-2014
14,774 units absorbed in DC metro in 2015 (5,907 historic avg)10,300 units to be absorbed annually in 2016, 2017, 2018 14,000 units to deliver in 201610,000 units to deliver in 2017
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THE CASE
Pro-creative class:77% of family earnings spent locally
$55,000/year spent on children by families in top income brackets
$1 spent on children -> $2 economic impact
Creative class:No discernible relationship with improved economic health
30-34
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strongest demographic indicator of economic health
families increase economic activity & create greater long-term stability for cities
CREATIVE VS PROCREATIVE
statewide
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FAMILIES IN CITIES: SOCIAL BENEFITS
Parents contribute to social and civic health and stability of cities
Each additional 10 minutes of commuting time reduces civic engagement by 10%
Increased walking and activity levels decreases health risks like obesity
Compact, urban neighborhoods are more sustainable than traditional suburbs
Cities that are designed forkids are designed for all
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INTRODUCTION
SURVEY OVERVIEW
HOUSING
NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
TRANSPORTATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
77% Caucasian
ULI SURVEY RESPONDENT
53% are 30-37 62% female
DEMOGRAPHICS
1,344 total participants
11% African American
8% Hispanic
4% Other
47% are 20-29 38% male
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61% single
7% part time
68% own vehicles
5% live with family
12% have kids
17% in MD
MILLENNIALS AT A GLANCE 39% married/partnered
1% stay at home
84% employed full time
4% in school
62% live in DC
21% live in VA
67% rent
28% own
24% have roommates
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Compared nationally, the DC metro Millennials sample is...
Skewed female 62% DC metro VS 51% US
Are in 30-37 age range53% DC metro VS 43% US
Employed full time 84% DC metro VS 62% US
parent
STRONG INCOME LEVELS
DC metro Millennials earn more than US average
$66,636 - DC metro median income
$48,125 - National median income
DC
National
8%
29%
18%
24%
36%
27%
19%
12%
19%
8%
Inside the Beltway
National
<$35,000 $35-49,999 $50-74,999 $75-99,999 >$100,000
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Inside the Beltway vs National
Of those expecting kids in 3 years:
30% definitely raise family inside Beltway 19% probably30% maybe21% no (8% DC residents)
77% living in DC and 41% in inner suburbs would stay in DC if there was greater certainty that kids would attend good public/charter school
60% not involved in neighborhood, community, religious, civil, political activities
FAMILIES & CIVIC INVOLVEMENT
12% have children. Of those, 60% have 1 child
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INTRODUCTION
SURVEY OVERVIEW
HOUSING
NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
TRANSPORTATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
RENTERS INSIDE THE BELTWAY
Respondents highly satisfied with current housing
67% currently rent; 28% own; 5% live with family
By 2018:
60% expect to still be living “inside the Beltway”
63% expect to own
37% expect to rent
38% 1 BR
21% 3+ BR
37% expect to rent
58% expect to
move outside Beltway
to afford to buy
$1,945 median rent
(in District vs $1,3907
US median)
28% 2 BR
13% Studio
46% plan to buy
house/condo
67% rent now
40% of renters in 20’s
have roommates
72% can’t afford to
live alone
60% expect to remain in
current unit for < 1 year
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US 2013 American Community Survey
3+YEARS
OWNERS INSIDE THE BELTWAY
28% own
8 out of 10 owners inside the Beltway are first-time buyers
Nearly 1/2 of owners have lived in their current dwellings for less than 2 years
60% own in District 40% own in MD/VA inside Beltway
33% received gifts from parents to finance ownership
59% ownership good long-term
investment
43% high prices inside Beltway not a deterrent
70% “very satisfied” with
ownership
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72% from DC
66% from MD/VA
inside Beltway
17% from MD/VA inside Beltway
23% from DC
12% from outside DC metro
11% from outside DC metro
INTRODUCTION
SURVEY OVERVIEW
HOUSING
NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
TRANSPORTATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
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40% rate non-grocery neighborhood shopping as “fair to poor”
1/5 favor shopping at small, independent stores in their neighborhood
60% live within 10-minute walk of full-service supermarket; 80% rate it good to excellent
65% rate “lots of restaurants” as a desirable neighborhood quality
SHOPPING, ENTERTAINMENT, & GROCERY
70% live within a
15-minute walk of a non-grocery
shopping area
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PARKS 40%
say parks are an important asset they do not want to lose
42% At least once a week
32% Once or twice a month
17% Rarely or never
9% Less than once a month
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INTRODUCTION
SURVEY OVERVIEW
HOUSING
NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
TRANSPORTATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
COPYRIGHT URBAN LAND INSTITUTE WASHINGTON | HICKOK COLE ARCHITECTS 2015
10% bus only
19% of commuters
3% of commuters26% commute
5% of commuters use other
47% of commuters use public transit
65% metro access is 1 of top 3 reasons for selecting or staying in residence
50% own bikes (but only 13% use them daily)
68% own automobiles, only 26% report driving to work/school
COMMUTING 28% metro
9% metro + bus
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alone by car carpool
walk or bike forms of transportation
39% frequently use taxi substitute (Uber or Lyft) late at night; after partying; to access places ill-served by public transit
14% use bike sharing systems “a lot”
5% use car sharing systems once/week (Zip Car or Car2Go)
OTHER TRANSPORTATION METHODS
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INTRODUCTION
SURVEY OVERVIEW
HOUSING
NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
TRANSPORTATION
RECOMMENDATIONS
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CALL TO ACTION
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LANDUSE & ZONING
AFFORDABILITY & FINANCING
TECHNOLOGY & BUSINESS
OPPORTUNITIES
PRODUCT TYPES
DAY CARE & SCHOOLS
LAND USE & ZONING
Zoning for accessory units & pop-ups
Bonus density for family-sized units
Expedited permitting for family-friendly unit mixes
Urban Family overlay around schools
Downpayment assistance for families
Tax relief for family home buyers
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PRODUCT TYPES
Internal courtyard
2 + 2 + 2 units
Aggregable units
Family mixed-use
Shared amenities
Micro-condos
Compact design
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Purchase Price $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000(Downpayment (@ 20%)) ($140,000) ($160,000) ($180,000) ($200,000)Mortgage $560,000 $640,000 $720,000 $800,000
Payment (@ 4%) $2,674 $3,055 $3,437 $3,819Taxes $450 $521 $591 $662Insurance $100 $100 $100 $100Total Monthly Payment $3,223 $3,676 $4,129 $4,582
Required Annual Income $117,212 $133,676 $150,140 $166,604Assumes 33% Of Gross
Gross Monthly Income $9,768 $11,140 $12,512 $13,884(Less 28% Withholding) ($2,735) ($3,119) ($3,503) ($3,887)Net Income $7,033 $8,021 $9,008 $9,996(Less House Payment) ($3,223) ($3,676) ($4,129) ($4,582)
Remaining Income For Expenses $3,809 $4,344 $4,880 $5,415
Required annual income based on housing prices
+ + + + +
Location of family-friendly homes sold under $825,000 in last 12 monthsSOURCE: MRIS, REDFIN
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FAMILY-FRIENDLY HOMES IN N.E.
Hill East, H Street, Trinidad, Eckington, Brookland, Bloomingdale
Family-friendly rentals niche product
Balance of land cost, density, potential rents, high concentration of families, high row house pricing
3BR2BR/Den 3BR/Den2BR
Monthly Rent
Implied Price*
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Implied purchase price of family friendly rental units @ $3.50psf
* Assumes deductions from monthly rent for taxes and insurance
950 SF
1,100 SF
1,250 SF
1,350 SF
Monthly Rent:
Implied Price*:
Req’d Income:
Downpayment (20%):
$3,325
$722,458
$120,909
$144,492
$3,850
$838,412
$140,000
$167,682
$4,375
$954,366
$159,091
$190,873
$4,725
$1,031,669
$171,818
$206,334
$3.50/sf+ rents in well-located DC neighborhoods
Renters in that range could buy upwards of $1,000,000 home if can afford downpayment
Highly-educated DC millennials are ridden with student loans
Savings for downpayment limited
$4,400
$4,600
$4,800
$950,000
$1,000,000
$1,050,000
$4,200 $900,000
$4,000 $850,000
$3,800 $800,000
$3,600 $750,000
$3,400 $700,000
$3,200 $650,000
$3,000 $600,000Mon
thly
Ren
t
Imp
lied
Pur
chas
e Pr
ice
DAYCARE & SCHOOLS
Incentivize day care operators
Business opportunities for childcare providers
Easy access to school information
School liaison for parents
Share facilities with community
Locate near public transportation
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RECREATION
Share resources with schools, parks
Utilize City’s historic and artistic assets to expose children to educational opportunities
Child-friendly publications that alert parents to family exhibits at museums, discounts, activities
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SAFETY
Messaging at child level to safe routes
Visible cameras along routes
Pre-paid transportation pass that allows kids universal access to buses, trains, taxis
Emergency children’s call boxes
Designated safe car on metro and buses
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TECHNOLOGY
Uber school
List serves, message boards for parents
Nanny-share
Online deliveries for groceries
Online resources for parents “shopping” for schools - classroom photos, test scores, enrollment process
Online hub for locating tutors, activity instructors
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• City Talent: Keeping Young Professionals (and their kids) in Cities, Forest City Enterprises and CEOs for Cities, 2007.
• Creative Class or Procreative Class: Implications for Local Economic Development Policy, Laura Reese, 2012.
• Downtown Families, Sarah Snider Komppa, 2013.
• Focus Group: Families in the City, ULI Washington, 2015.
• The Economic Importance of Families with Children, Mildred Warner and Rebecca Baran-Rees, 2012.
• Millennials Inside the Beltway, ULI Washington, 2015
SOURCES
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