Millenium simulations at IPSL THOR: C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, C. Marini, J. Mignot Escarsel: M....
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Transcript of Millenium simulations at IPSL THOR: C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, C. Marini, J. Mignot Escarsel: M....
![Page 1: Millenium simulations at IPSL THOR: C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, C. Marini, J. Mignot Escarsel: M. Khodri, J. Servonnat, P. Yiou THOR CT1 meeting, Bergen,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c755503460f94928ed9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Millenium simulations at IPSL
THOR: C. Frankignoul, G. Gastineau, C. Marini, J. Mignot
Escarsel: M. Khodri, J. Servonnat, P. Yiou
THOR CT1 meeting, Bergen, Oct 1-2 2009
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The IPSL-CM4 coupled model
LMDZ: atmospheric physics and dynamics
horizontal resolution 96x72, 19 vertical layers
OPA: ocean dynamics based on a 2 degrees Mercator mesh (orca), 31 vertical levels
LIM: sea-ice dynamics
and thermodynamics
ORCHIDEE: land surface
OASIS
Marti et al 2008 http://mc2.ipsl.jussieu.fr/simules.html,http://igcmg.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Doc/IPSLCM4/
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The IPSL-CM4 coupled model
Simulations:
- CTRL1000 years control simulation, preindustrial GHGs and tropospheric aerosols concentrations
- SOL 950 years (1001-1950) years simulation including solar forcing, historical GHGs (Joos et al. 2008) and preindustrial tropospheric aerosols concentrations
- SOLVOL 300 years (starting yr 850) simulation including solar +volcanic forcing
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TS
I C
row
ley
(2
00
0),
W/m
-2
(a)13
63
13
65
13
67
The solar forcing
1000 1200 1600 1800 20001400
Calendar time
SOL
SOLVOL Krivova , pers. com. 2009
Amman et al. 2007: -0.25% TSI at the Maunder minimum
More recent estimates: -0.1 % at the Maunder minimum
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SOL – northern hemisphere temperatures
Reconstructions overlap Osborn and Briffa, IPCC AR4, Solomon et al. 2007
Good global agreement,
Cold « bias »(Missing volcanoes, which would have decreased the warming between 1700-1900.)
Correlation with TSI: 0.74
Servonnat et al., in prep.
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No
rth
ern
He
mis
ph
ere
su
rfa
ce t
em
pe
ratu
re a
no
ma
lies
(°C
re
f 1
75
0-1
85
0)
Prein
d.
CT
RL
Ma
nn
et a
l 2
008
EIV
Mo
be
rg e
t a
l 200
5C
row
ley &
L
ow
ery 20
00
Am
man
n &
W
ahl 2
007
(a)
(e)
(d)
(c)
(b)
SOL – northernhemisphere temperatures
Comparison with four individual reconstructions
Servonnat et al., in prep.
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SOL – regression of temperature on TSI
• 1000-1800 annual mean
• Max sensitivity with 15 yrs lag: 0.109°C/W.m-2
• sensitivity over sea ice > over land > over ocean
Servonnat et al., in prep.
Lag 15 yrs
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CTRL/SOL surface temperature variability
CTRL
SOL
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
Co
ld p
erio
d
(168
4-17
34 A
D)
War
m P
erio
d
(123
0-12
80 A
D)
- 1
SD
+ 1
SD
Annual mean Summer Winter
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(k)
(l)
(i)
(j)(h)
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
0.20.611.41.82.22.63
- 0.2- 0.6- 1- 1.4- 1.8- 2.2- 2.6- 3
Servonnat et al., in prep.
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CTRL/SOL surface temperature variability
CTRL
SOL
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0° 100°W 100°E0°
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
Co
ld p
erio
d
(168
4-17
34 A
D)
War
m P
erio
d
(123
0-12
80 A
D)
- 1
SD
+ 1
SD
Annual mean Summer Winter
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(k)
(l)
(i)
(j)(h)
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
80°N
40°N
Eq
40°S
80°S
0.20.611.41.82.22.63
- 0.2- 0.6- 1- 1.4- 1.8- 2.2- 2.6- 3
Servonnat et al., in prep.
Global
Land
Ocean
= 75%
= 78%
= 73%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 71%
= 73%
= 71%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 76%
= 83%
= 73%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 73%
= 80%
= 70%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 67%
= 57%
= 72%
Global
Land
Ocean
= 70%
= 70%
= 70%
CP
WP
Annual mean
Summer Winter
-1S
D/+
1S
D
SOL
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SOLVOL – sensitivity of the atmospheric model to volcanic forcing
b) Observations (Robock, 2000)
Anomalous response of LMDZ to Mt Pinatubo eruption (DJF 1991-1992)
Temperature in the low troposphere
500mb geopotential
a) LMDZ
Khodri, pers. com.
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SOLVOL – volcanic forcing in the IPSL model• Sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere• Volcanic eruption with a VEI>4• Essentially tropical eruptions
Optic thickness of the volcanic aerosols for the Mt Pinatubo eruptions (1991-1992)
months latitude
latit
ude
altit
ude
DJF 1991-1992
• Mie code to compute the simple diffusion albedo and asymetry factor for the sulfate stratospheric aerosol in water phase
• Implementation of the optic thickness on the 2 layers above the tropopause
Khodri, pers. com.
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Atlantic thermohaline circulation
CTRLSOLSOLVOL
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Atlantic thermohaline circulation
MSF average CTRL
CTRLSOLSOLVOL
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North Atlantic deep convection
Maximum mixed layer depth in March
CTRL
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Barotropic streamfunction
CTRL
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Horizontal circulation in the North Atlantic
CTRL
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Horizontal circulation in the North Atlantic in winter
CTRL
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Horizontal circulation in the northern North Atlantic
CTRL
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Horizontal circulation in the northern North Atlantic in winter
CTRL
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Plans
Use of IPSL_CM5 model: ORCA2 x LMDZ (96x95x39)
run should start before end 2009
Only SOLVOL experiment? forcings?
- THC variability on decadal to centennial timescale – process studies-Ocean-atmosphere feedback- internal vs externally forced variability
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Implémentation de l’impact radiatif des aérosols volcanique dans MDZ
Code de Mie:
Calcul de l’albédo de simple diffusion (cg) et le facteur d’asymétrie (piz) pour les aérosols stratosphériques sulfatés en phase aqueuse (forme binaire H2SOA/H2O: 75%/25%)El Chichon + Pinatubo (SO4 droplet):
# R : rayon modal en nm : 500.0# Sigma : largeur de distribution: 1.30
# w1 w2 : albedo de simple diffusion sur les 2 bandes du visible : 1.000 0.995 # g1 g2 : paramËtre d'assymÈtrie sur les 2 bandes du visible : 0.7079 0.7548
Implémentation de l’épaisseur optique (Tau) sur les 2 couches atmosphériques au dessus de la tropopause
Epaisseur optique des aérosols volcaniquePour l’éruption du Mt Pinatubo (1991-1992)
mois latitude
latit
ude
altit
ude
DJF 1991-1992
Khodri, pers. com.
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Volcanic Explosive Index, VEI (Newhall y Self, 1982)
VEI HAUTEUR DU
PANACHEVOLUME D’ÉJECTION
CLASSIFICATIONEXEMPLE
0 <100 m 1000s m3 Hawaiano Kilauea
1 100-1000 m 10000s m3 Hawaiano/Estromboliano
Stromboli
2 1-5 km 1000000s m3 Estromboliano/
Vulcaniano Galeras (1992)
3 3-15 km 10000000 m3 Vulcaniano Ruiz (1985)
4 10-25 km 100000000s m3 Vulcaniano/Plineano Galunggung
(1982)
5 >25 km 1 km3 Plineano St. Helens (1980)
6 >25 km 10s km3 Plineano/Ultra-Plineano Krakatau (1883)
7 >25 km 100s km3 Ultra-Plineano Tambora (1815)
8 >25 km 1000s km3 Ultra-Plineano Toba (74 ka)
Volcanic eruptions with stratospheric impact : VEI > 4
Khodri, pers. com.
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Mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic
Monthly mean maximum
Standard deviation of the March monthly values
De Boyer Montégut et al. 2005
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Annual mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Time series of the AMOC maximum
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Temporal characteristics of the maximum of the annual mean AMOC
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Leading mode of SLP variability over the North Atlantic
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2nd EOF of SLP over the North Atlantic
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Atlantic annual mean SST and SSS
Reynolds
Reverdin
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ENSO in IPSL-CM4
First EOF of tropical Pacific SST
Regression of the SLP on the corresponding principal component
64%
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ENSO
Model
Observations (Reynolds and NCEP)
65,5 %
64 %