Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder...

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Milk Market Situation Brussels, 19 February 2015

Transcript of Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder...

Page 1: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 19 February 2015

Page 2: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

Total Butter+ 3,5%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 24,1%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder

and partly skimmed milk

powder+ 8,0%

Cheese+ 1,6%

Fermented milk- 2,7%

Cows' Milk Collected

+ 5,1%

- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20% + 25% + 30% + 35%

Evo

luti

on

in

%

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development (Jan - Nov 2014 compared to Jan - Nov 2013)

Source : MS' Communications to EurostatRem : DK : Nov data estimated (except Milk)

Total Butter+ 3,3%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 26,1%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder

and partly skimmed milk

powder+ 2,8%

Cheese+ 1,3%

Fermented milk- 3,0%

Cows' Milk Collected

+ 4,9%

- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20% + 25% + 30% + 35%

Evo

luti

on

in

%

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development

(Apr 2014 - Nov 2014 compared to Apr 2013 - Nov 2013)

Source : MS' Communications to EurostatRem : DK : Nov data estimated (except Milk)

Page 3: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 3

-16% to -12%

-12% to -08%

-08% to -04%

-04% to +00%

+00% to +04%

+04% to +08%

+08% to +12%

+12% to +16%

n/a+7,2

+3,3

+1,1

+2,1

+3,9

+6,8

+5,0

-4,4+5,9

+6,2

+4,7

+5,2

+10,0

+7,4

+6,6

+6,4

+2,3

+3,8

+7,1

+4,8

+14,1+2,9

+2,0

+3,2

+2,4

+8,8

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

+4,2

Page 4: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 4

-16% to -12%

-12% to -08%

-08% to -04%

-04% to +00%

+00% to +04%

+04% to +08%

+08% to +12%

+12% to +16%

n/a+6,8

+4,5

+1,7

+1,4

+3,6

+6,0

+5,9

-4,1+5,8

+5,7

+5,5

+5,0

+9,3

+7,6

+7,4

+8,2

+1,5

+3,3

+7,0

+5,4

+14,5+3,7

+2,8

+2,9

+2,0

+7,6

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat

+5,4

Page 5: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 5 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 Tonnes

EU - Cows' milk collected ( 30d ajusted months )

2014

2013

2012

2011

Last Update : Jan-Nov

Jan-Nov 2014/13 : +5,1%

Source : Estat - Newcronos

Page 6: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

6 19 February 2015

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

EU

R/

10

0

kg

EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to December 14)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU

SMP and Butter prices)

Milk Prices (LTO)

Source :MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)

* : provisional prices

Page 7: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 7

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein

content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

57,5

47,4

42,9

42,8

36,7

36,0

35,0

34,5

34,3

34,0

33,6

33,6

33,5

33,4

33,2

33

,1

32,5

32,5

31,8

31,7

31,4

31,2

31,1

30,8

30,4

30,0

25,1

25,0

24,3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT GR FI AT IT HR DK GB PT IE LU SE ES FR EU BG DE SK SI HU BE CZ NL RO PL LT EE LV

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk Price 2013

Milk Price 2014

Source : Member States (Reg. 479/2010)

( Dec 2014 vs Dec 2013 )

Estimates for CZ, DK, EL, ES,

Page 8: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 8 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015 IP 2009

Latest price : 205 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : -38%

Page 9: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

215213

208206

205

198

193

185

174

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

NL DE BE GB EU Avg. CZ IE PL LV

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 8.02.2015)

I.P

Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2

19 February 2015 9

Page 10: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 10 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015 IP 2009

Evolution compared to same period last year : -19%

Latest price : 304 EUR/100kg

Page 11: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 11

410 408

340

323 323 322 320313

304

288 288 284

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

HR SK LV ES BE NL CZ DE EUAvg.

GB PL IE

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 8.02.2015)

Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2

I.P. = 221.75

Page 12: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 12

304

205

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price

SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices

SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

Page 13: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 13

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

Page 14: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 14 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015

Evolution compared to same period last year : -34%

Latest price : 251 EUR/100kg

Page 15: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 15

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015

Evolution compared to same period last year : -20%

Latest price : 325 EUR/100kg

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2012 2.013 2.014 2.015

Evolution compared to same period last year : -31%

Latest price : 265 EUR/100kg

Page 16: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 16

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015

Evolution compared to same period last year : -9%

Latest price : 95 EUR/100kg

Page 17: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 17

USD/EUR

Source: European Central Bank

US Dollar

1.1415

Page 18: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 18

2.500

2.2132.327

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

Oct 0

7

Jan 0

8

Apr

08

Jul 08

Oct 0

8

Jan 0

9

Apr

09

Jul 09

Oct 0

9

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 10

Oct 1

0

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 19: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 19

2.6502.7552.976

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

Oct 0

7

Jan 0

8

Apr

08

Jul 08

Oct 0

8

Jan 0

9

Apr

09

Jul 09

Oct 0

9

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 10

Oct 1

0

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 20: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 20

3.638

3.355

3.985

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

6.500

7.000

Oct 0

7

Jan 0

8

Apr

08

Jul 08

Oct 0

8

Jan 0

9

Apr

09

Jul 09

Oct 0

9

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 10

Oct 1

0

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 21: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 21

3.700

3.384

3.644

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

Oct 0

7

Jan 0

8

Apr

08

Jul 08

Oct 0

8

Jan 0

9

Apr

09

Jul 09

Oct 0

9

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 10

Oct 1

0

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct 1

1

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

Page 22: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 22

127 989 150 157

458 752

507 682

48 051 42 185

92 469

72 583

17 692 12 944

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

2013 2014

BUTTER & Butteroil

Exports

EU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

Page 23: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 23

406 744

657 160

391 969 383 005

119 311 .

163 629 .

554 831 . 553 557 .

24 963 21 600

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

2013 2014

SMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

Page 24: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 24

374

278

392

803

1 291 460 .1 423 834 .

96 1

01

80 8

94

39 7

63

54 8

10182

487

143

715

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

2013 2014

WMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

Page 25: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 25

786 683727 285

276 886 278 162

163

386

150

594

318 143370 529

51 175 56 450

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

2013 2014

CHEESE

Exports

EU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

Page 26: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 26

EU-28 Exports (1/2) Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

118 119126

94102 102

122

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 exports compared to 2013 : + 19%

BUTTER exports

2013

2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

176229

376

515 520

407

657

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 exports compared to 2013 : + 62%

SMP exports

2013

2014

Page 27: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 27

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

547 569

667 673

768 787727

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

483458 445

388 386 374393

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 exports compared to 2013 : - 8%

CHEESE exports

2013

2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 exports compared to 2013 : + 5%

WMP exports

20132014

Page 28: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 28

43 77852 045

14 24522 413

79 636

126 207

52 301

80 405

38 167

25 361

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

2013 2014

BUTTER + Butteroil

Imports

EU-28 (up to Dec)

United States (up to Dec)

Russia (up to Nov)

China (up to Dec)

Mexico (up to Nov)

Page 29: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 29

4 9532 288

179 705 181 694

35 795

77 137

235 019252 840

32 27542 525

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2013 2014

SMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Dec)

Mexico (up to Nov)

Russia (up to Nov)

China (up to Dec)

Japan (up to Dec)

Page 30: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 30

3 415 1 2422 57530 052

619 397670 857

8 167 8 85410 325 5 743

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

2013 2014

WMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Dec)

Russia (up to Nov)

China (up to Dec)

United States (up to Dec)

Mexico (up to Nov)

Page 31: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 31

74 67476 254

147 634165 170

295 722288 142

47 316

65 973

236 191 231 950

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

2013 2014

CHEESE

Imports

EU-28 (up to Dec)

United States (up to Dec)

Russia (up to Nov)

China (up to Dec)

Japan (up to Dec)

Page 32: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 32

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

73 80

5472 73 68

90

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : + 58%

2013

2014

0

25

50

75

100

125

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

14 1328 23

3648 52

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : + 54%

2013

2011

2014

Page 33: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 33

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3355 56 52 45 52

1000 Tonnes

Iran

0

25

50

75

100

125

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5941

6040

29 3040

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : - 27%

2013

2014

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : - 27%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : - 34%

2013

2014

2014

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : - 34%

Page 34: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 34

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

40 55 70 89130

168

235

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : + 8%

2013

2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

121152 165 155

194236

198

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : + 1%

2013

2014

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : + 1%

Page 35: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 35

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

91 105 93 98129

112 120

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

9177

104132 128 136

155

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnesJan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : - 8%

2013

2014

Jan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : - 8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes

Jan-Oct 2014 compared to 2013 : - 4%

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

91 77104

132 128 136155

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Oct 2014 compared to 2013 : - 4%

2013

2014

2014

Page 36: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 36

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

58 46

177

326 320406

619

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : + 8%

2013

2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

160 153200

167204 188

142

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%

2013

2014

Jan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%

Page 37: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 37

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

61 73 74 83 81 74 90

1000 Tonnes

Singapore

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

110

243215

51106

216170

1000 Tonnes

Venezuela

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : - 3%

2013

2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnesJan-Jun 2014 compared to 2013 : + 50%

2013

2013

2014

Jan-Jun 2014 compared to 2013 : + 50%

Page 38: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 38

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

234 248 229

294 296 316 327

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnesJan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : - 3%

2013

2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

225187 184 199 215 235 236

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : - 2%

20132014

Page 39: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 39

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

86 68 73 80 78 89 103

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

200171 162 138 143 154 148

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : - 5%

2013

2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : + 12%

2013

2014

Page 40: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 40

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in t

on

ne

s

.

Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)

2011 2012 2013 2014

Source:USDA

Jan-Dec 2014 vs 2013 : + 2.4% (real monthly production)

Page 41: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 41 Source: Dairy Australia

,500

,600

,700

,800

,900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in t

on

ne

s

Jul-Dec 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 2.6%

Australian milk production

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Page 42: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 42 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Dec 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 4.1%

NZ milk production

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Page 43: Milk Market Situation · EU Productions Total Butter + 3,5% Skimmed-milk powder + 24,1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder + 8,0% Cheese + 1,6% Fermented

19 February 2015 43

Prices

in US$/t Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

Weighted

average

price % change Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

AMF n.a. 4 281 4 326 4 335 4 359 4 388 4 314 + 6.1% + 6.0% + 5.9% + 6.0% + 7.0% + 5.3%

Butter n.a. 3 795 3 826 3 835 3 940 n.a. 3 823 + 1.1% - 1.6% + 1.2% + 5.2% + 5.2%

BMP n.a. 2 675 2 670 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2 674 + 9.7% + 11.8% - 0.6%

Cheeses n.a. 2 997 3 064 3 111 n.a. n.a. 3 054 + 15.9% + 15.8% + 15.0% + 16.8%

Rennet Casein n.a. 8 902 8 902 8 884 n.a. n.a. 8 897 + 1.4% + 0.2% + 1.1% + 2.8%

Lactose n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

SMP n.a. 2 719 2 761 2 706 2 848 2 842 2 744 + 5.6% + 5.9% + 5.0% + 4.8% + 6.7% + 6.0%

WMP n.a. 3 242 3 262 3 244 3 342 3 412 3 272 + 13.9% + 13.1% + 13.9% + 11.8% + 15.2% + 18.3%

Source : GlobalDairyTrade (http://www.globaldairytrade.info/)

17 Feb 2015 1 € = 1.1297 $ (ECB rate)

in €/t Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

Weighted

average price

AMF 3 790 3 829 3 837 3 858 3 884 3 818

Butter 3 359 3 387 3 395 3 488 3 384

BMP 2 368 2 363 2 367

Cheese 2 653 2 712 2 754 #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 704

MPC70 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Rennet Casein 7 880 7 880 7 864 #VALUE! #VALUE! 7 875

Lactose 7 769

SMP 2 407 2 444 2 395 2 521 2 515 2 429

WMP 2 870 2 887 2 871 2 959 3 020 2 897

% change by contract from previous

auction

Results of the GDT event 134 of 17.02.2015