Milk Market Situation Brussels, 7 April 2011

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 7 April 2011

Market Situation, 7 April 2011 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan 2011 compared to Jan 2010)

Total Butter+ 1.4%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 3.1%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 13.0%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder+ 1.3%

Cheese+ 4.4%

Fermented milk- 0.2%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

.

Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(Apr 10-Jan 11 compared to Apr 09-Jan 10)

Total Butter- 0.2%

Skimmed-milk powder- 2.4%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 0.1%

Cheese+ 2.6%

Fermented milk+ 2.2%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 2.2%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %


-24.0% to -18.0% -18.0% to -12.0% -12.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +12.0% +12.0% to +18.0% +18.0% to +24.0%

+4.7

-3.2

-0.1

-0.5

+2.4

+8.4

+21.2

-4.9+1.2

+6.9

-2.2

0

+9.2

+7.4

+2.6

+0.3

0

+2.0

+4.1

+3.9

+0.7

-8.4+2.2

-2.7

0

-0.7

+5.8



-16.0% to -12.0% -12.0% to -8.0% -8.0% to -4.0% -4.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +8.0% +8.0% to +12.0% +12.0% to +16.0%

+5.5

-3.1

-1.0

+1.7

+2.3

+4.4

+12.3

-0.1+1.5

+4.5

-2.1

+2.5

+6.9

+2.8

+4.5

-8.1

0

+1.6

+3.4

-0.5

-1.7

-8.2+1.0

-4.6

-0.1

-1.5

+4.0


Market Situation, 7 April 2011 5Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

Monthly Deliveries EU 27

9 000

9 500

10 000

10 500

11 000

11 500

12 000

12 500

13 000

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

1000 t

onne

s

2008 2009 2010 2011


EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices1

49

2

1 3

80

1 5

41

1 5

43

1 7

13

1 6

85

1 6

79

1 6

56

1 5

36

1 4

64

1 3

43

1 4

02

1 4

04

1 2

92

1 4

77

1 5

10

1 6

51

1 6

34

1 6

32

1 6

20

1 5

34

1 4

77

1 4

05

1 4

25

9 6

62

9 0

35 10

21

0

10

35

5

10

69

6

10

05

7

9 8

42

9 4

66

8 8

69

9 1

25

8 8

16

9 3

14

9 5

28

8 9

43 10

20

7

10

31

9

10

92

0

10

28

8

10

04

9

9 7

86

9 3

63

9 5

59

9 1

46

9 4

58

9 8

34

1 3

55

23

.4

21

.5

21

.1

21

.1

20

.9

20

.5

21

.0 21

.7

22

.1 22

.9

24

.8 25

.6

26

.0

26

.4

26

.7

26

.6

26

.0

25

.9

26

.0 26

.8 28

.2

30

.4

30

.3

29

.5

27

.3

25

.1

25

.0

25

.2

25

.5 26

.3 27

.0

27

.6 29

.0

28

.8

29

.4

29

.0

28

.3

28

.4 29

.2 30

.2 31

.3 32

.5 33

.4

33

.5

33

.8

33

.7

33

.4

30

.1

28

.8 30

.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ja

n 0

9

Fe

b 0

9

Ma

r 0

9

Ap

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Ju

n 0

9

Ju

l 09

Au

g 0

9

Se

p 0

9

Oc

t 0

9

No

v 0

9

De

c 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Fe

b 1

0

Ma

r 1

0

Ap

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Ju

n 1

0

Ju

l 10

Au

g 1

0

Se

p 1

0

Oc

t 1

0

No

v 1

0

De

c 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Fe

b 1

1

Ma

r 1

1

Ap

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Ju

n 1

1

Ju

l 11

Pro

du

ctio

ns

in 1

000

To

ns

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

28 000

Pri

ces

in E

UR

/100

kg Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12)

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-12)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-15)

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3


Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website

Milk Prices Evolution (up to February 2011)

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Ap

r 0

1

Oct

01

Ap

r 0

2

Oct

02

Ap

r 0

3

Oct

03

Ap

r 0

4

Oct

04

Ap

r 0

5

Oct

05

Ap

r 0

6

Oct

06

Ap

r 0

7

Oct

07

Ap

r 0

8

Oct

08

Ap

r 0

9

Oct

09

Ap

r 1

0

Oct

10

Ap

r 1

1

EUR/100 kg

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)


EU Milk Prices(February 2011 compared to February 2010)

52.0

45.1

40.839.8

38.6

35.7 35.6 34.8 34.6 33.9 33.2 33.1 33.1 32.9 32.2 32.2 31.7 31.4 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.8 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.3 28.927.5

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY MT EL SE FI NL IT DK AT BE DE EU27

FR IE BG CZ LU EE SK PT HU ES PL UK LT LV SI RO

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Milk Price 2009 Milk Price 2010

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

Estimates for BG, CZ, DK, EL, IT and MT


Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

EU annual Milk Prices(2010 compared to 2009)

51.3

44.3

33.8 33.731.9 31.8 31.5 31.0 31.0 30.8 30.5 29.8 29.4 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.0

25.1 25.123.9

37.237.3

30.5

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY MT EL FI IT SE DK AT NL DE FR IE EU27

BE LU ES PT CZ UK EE BG PL SK SI HU LT LV RO

in E

UR

/100

kg

.

Average milk price 2009

Average milk price 2010


EU 27 BUTTER+BUTTEROI L Production

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

100

0 t

onne

s

2008 2009 2010 2011

Sources : EUROSTAT Newcronos


EU 27 SMP Production

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

1000 t

onne

s

2008 2009 2010 2011



EU 27 CHEESES Production

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

1000 t

onne

s

2008 2009 2010 2011



Monthly EU15/25 SMP Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2008 2009 2 010 2 011 I P 2009

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010


EU SMP Prices(up to 3/04/2011)

283.0

262.2254.8 254.4

244.4 243.2 242.5 239.4 233.3 227.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

LV SK BE CZ PL IE DE EU 27 UK FR

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


Monthly EU15/25 BUTTER Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2008 2009 2 010 2 011 I P 2009



EU Butter Prices (up to 3.04.2011)

410399

391 385 382 381366

373

354

335325

412

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

NL PT DE BE CZ SK LV FR PL IE ES GB

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010Butter Intervention price

EU-27 weighted average

I.P. = 221.75

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan

03

Apr

03

Jul

03

Oct

03

Jan

04

Apr

04

Jul

04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul

05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul

06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul

07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul

08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul

09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul

10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

.

BUTTER SMP


6 105 T.

Butter Stocks7.04.2011

Private Storage : 18 459 Tons

Intervention Stocks : 1 544 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 1 544 TonsAvailable : 0 Ton

0 T.

254 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

182 T.

0 T.

1 363 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

5 144 T.

8 094 T.

0 T.

0 T.

364 T.

506 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

1 088 T.

444 T.

5 206 T.

46 T.

Sources : Member States communications


Intervention Stocks : 146 513 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 93 899 Tonsavailable for sale : 52 614 Tons

SMP Stocks7.04.2011

11 153 T.

53 005 T.

32 020 T.

22 438 T.

3 227 T.

13 899 T

830 T.

191 T. 899 T.

1 365 T.

4 282 T.

2 597 T.

607 T. 0 T.

Sources : Member States communications


Monthly EU15/25 WMP Prices

150170190210230250270290310330350370390410

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2008 2009 2 010 2 011



Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2008 2009 2010 2011

Monthly EU15/25 EDAM Prices

200220240260280300320340360380400420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2 010 2008 2009 2 011



Monthly EU15/25 WheyPowder Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2 010 2008 2009 2 011



EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

EU

R f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter

Source: Reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010


WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD).

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

US

D f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter

Source: USDA


USD/EUR

1.4300

Source: European Central Bank


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

4 900

5 320

4 470

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000Ja

n 04

May

04

Sep

04

Jan

05

May

05

Sep

05

Jan

06

May

06

Sep

06

Jan

07

May

07

Sep

07

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

3 600

3 390

3 970

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

Jan

04

May

04

Sep

04

Jan

05

May

05

Sep

05

Jan

06

May

06

Sep

06

Jan

07

May

07

Sep

07

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

4 5004 480

4 160

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000Ja

n 04

May

04

Sep

04

Jan

05

May

05

Sep

05

Jan

06

May

06

Sep

06

Jan

07

May

07

Sep

07

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

4 4004 290

3 560

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Jan

04

May

04

Sep

04

Jan

05

May

05

Sep

05

Jan

06

May

06

Sep

06

Jan

07

May

07

Sep

07

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation



2010 Dairy Imports into TUNISIA

Imports of cheese into Tunisia (Total : 2 049 tonnes)

United States49%

EU27 (External

Trade)24%

New Zealand23%

Argentina2%

other2%

Imports of SMP into Tunisia (Total : 2 974 tonnes)

other4%

Uruguay3%Argentina

10%

EU27 (External

Trade)83%

Imports of wheypowder into Tunisia (Total : 3 161 tonnes)

EU27 (External

Trade)96%

United States3%

Canada1%

Source : GTA (Global trade Atlas)


Evolution of Dairy IMPORTS into TUNISIA

1 257 1 169

171

2 2692 464

3 161

2 049

2 626

3 5413 103

4 906

2 974

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2008 2009 2010

To

nn

es

.

butter and butteroil cheese SMP wheypowder



2010 Dairy Imports into LIBYAImports of butter and butteroil into

Libya (Total : 2 326 tonnes)

New Zealand

55%

EU27 (External

Trade)34%

United Arab Emirates

7%

Yemen2% other

2%

Imports of cheese into Libya (Total : 12 424 tonnes)

EU27 (External

Trade)88%

United States

7%

Turkey2%

other3%

Imports of SMP into Libya (Total : 9 450 tonnes)

other8%

United States15%

New Zealand33%

EU27 (External

Trade)44%

Imports of WMP into Libya (Total : 13 235 tonnes)

EU27 (External

Trade)47%

New Zealand44%

Argentina9%

other0%



Evolution of Dairy IMPORTS into LIBYA

2 3871 739

2 326

12 812

14 494

13 23512 424

9 5639 827

5 886 5 763

9 450

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

2008 2009 2010

To

nn

es

.

butter and butteroil cheese SMP WMP



U.S. milk production

6 200

6 400

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Cumul 2011 compared to 2010 : + 2.1%

in t

on

nes

.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: USDA


Cumul 2010/11 compared to 2009/10 : - 0.1%

Australian milk production

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200Ju

l

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Cumul 2010/11 compared to 2009/10 : - 0.1%

in t

on

nes

.

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Source: Dairy Australia


Cumul 2010/11 compared to 2009/10 : + 1.2%

NZ milk production

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000Ju

n

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Cumul 2010/11 compared to 2009/10 : + 1.2%

in t

on

nes

.

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra


Prices

in US$/t Jun-11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11Weighted

average price % changeAMF 5 958 6 115 5 914 5 985 -2.1%BMP no offer no offer no offerSMP 3 980 3 770 3 625 3 763 -1.4%WMP 3 984 3 916 3 800 3 878 -5.5%

05/04/2011 1 € = 1.4166 $ (ECB rate)

in €/t Jun-11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11Weighted

average priceAMF 4 206 4 316 4 175 4 225BMP #VALUE! #VALUE!SMP 2 810 2 661 2 559 2 656WMP 2 812 2 764 2 683 2 737

Quantities (maximum supply)in t Jun-11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11 Total Diff volumeAMF 1 275 600 600 2 475 - 50BMP 0 + 0SMP 500 1 000 850 2 350 - 500WMP 1 750 2 250 3 500 7 500 + 500

Source: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

Results of the Fonterra Auction of 05.04.2011


Anhydrous Milk Fat

Source: graph based on information available on http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

AMF - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

3 N

ov 0

9

1 D

ec 0

9

5 Ja

n 10

2 Fe

b 10

2 M

ar 1

0

6 Ap

r 10

4 M

ay 1

0

1 Ju

n 10

6 Ju

l 10

3 Au

g 10

1 Se

p 10

15 S

ep 1

0

5 O

ct 1

0

19 O

ct 1

0

2 N

ov 1

0

16 N

ov 1

0

1 D

ec 1

0

15 D

ec 1

0

4 Ja

n 11

18 J

an 1

1

1 Fe

b 11

15 F

eb 1

1

1 M

ar 1

1

15 M

ar 1

1

5 Ap

r 11

in t

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

in U

S$

Contract 1 (month + 2) Contract 2 (3 months after month + 2) Contract 3 (3 months after month + 5) Weighted average price


Skimmed Milk Powder


SMP - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

02-Mar-10

06-Apr-10

04-May-

10

01-Jun-10

06-Jul-10

03-Aug-10

01-Sep-10

15-Sep-10

05-Oct-10

19-Oct-10

02-Nov-10

16-Nov-10

01-Dec-10

15-Dec-10

04-Jan-11

18-Jan-11

01-Feb-11

15-Feb-11

01-Mar-11

15-Mar-11

05-Apr-11

in t

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

in U

S$



Whole Milk Powder


WMP - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

02-J

ul-0

805

-Aug

-08

02-S

ep-0

8

01-O

ct-0

804

-Nov

-08

02-D

ec-0

806

-Jan

-09

03-F

eb-0

9

03-M

ar-0

901

-Apr

-09

12-M

ay-0

9

02-J

un-0

901

-Jul

-09

04-A

ug-0

901

-Sep

-09

06-O

ct-0

9

07-O

ct-0

901

-Dec

-09

05-J

an-1

002

-Feb

-10

02-M

ar-1

0

06-A

pr-1

004

-May

-10

01-J

un-1

006

-Jul

-10

03-A

ug-1

0

01-S

ep-1

015

-Sep

-10

05-O

ct-1

019

-Oct

-10

02-N

ov-1

0

16-N

ov-1

001

-Dec

-10

15-D

ec-1

0

04-J

an-1

118

-Jan

-11

01-F

eb-1

115

-Feb

-11

01-M

ar-1

1

15-M

ar-1

105

-Apr

-11

in t

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

4 250

4 500

4 750

in U

S$


Milk Market Situation Brussels, 7 April 2011

Documents

Transcript of Milk Market Situation Brussels, 7 April 2011