Milk Market Situation · 4 521 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 5 500 6 000 6 500 7...

39
Milk Market Situation Brussels, 12 December 2019

Transcript of Milk Market Situation · 4 521 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 5 500 6 000 6 500 7...

Page 1: Milk Market Situation · 4 521 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 5 500 6 000 6 500 7 000 7 500 ... Exports New Zealand (up to Sep) EU-28 (up to Sep) Belarus (up to Aug)

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 12 December 2019

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!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

12 December 2019

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-4.0% to -1.9%

-1.9% to -1.4%

-1.4% to -0.9%

-0.9% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.0%

+1.0% to +2.0%

+2.0% to +2.4%

+2.4% to +9.0%

n/a+2.3

+0.1

-1.6

+0.4

-0.3

+2.0

+8.0

+1.0+0.9

-0.7

-0.9

+3.8

+0.4

-0.5

+2.4

+1.4

+4.1

-1.8

-2.0

+2.0

-1.0

+1.9

-2.1

-1.0

-1.4

-1.9

+2.4

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-3.9

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

12 December 2019

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10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 Tonnes

EU - Cows' milk collected

2016

2017

2018

2019

Jan-Sep 2019/18 : +0.4%

Last update : Jan-SepSource : Estat - Newcronos

Jan-Sep 2019/18 : + 0.4%

Estimations for EL

12 December 2019

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34.9

34.0

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to October 2019)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

12 December 2019

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58.0

52.1

39.7

39.6

38.2

37.7

36.6

36.4

35.0

35.0

34.9

34.8

34.7

34.0

33.7

33.7

33.5

33.3

32.7

32.5

32.1

31.7

31.6

31.4

31.0

30.8

30.5

29.4

28.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT IT FI GR FR IE* AT SE LU EU NL DE DK SI HR BE CZ SK UK* ES RO HU PL BG PT EE LT LV

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk price 2018

Milk price 2019

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Oct 2019 vs Oct 2018 )

* : estimated figures for Oct 2019

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,

others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

12 December 2019

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Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2019

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009

Latest price : 249 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : +54%

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12 December 2019

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Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2019

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009

Evolution compared to same period last year : -21%

Latest price : 366 EUR/100kg

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I.P. = 221.75

12 December 2019

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366

249

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

12 December 2019

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100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

12 December 2019

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Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019

Evolution compared to same period last year : +12%

Latest price : 304 EUR/100kg

12 December 2019

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Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019

Evolution compared to same period last year : +1%

Latest price : 318 EUR/100kg

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019

Evolution compared to same period last year : -1%

Latest price : 314 EUR/100kg

12 December 2019

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Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2016 2017 2018 2019 Series2

Evolution compared to same period last year : -3%

Latest price : 81 EUR/100kg

12 December 2019

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12 December 2019

100 477

4 331 2 743 1 260 749 182 20 0 0

-150 000

-100 000

-50 000

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

Qu

anti

ty in

to

nn

es

Public SMP Intervention scheme (2018-2019)Buying-in quantity & stocks

Quantities In (2019) Quantities Out (2019) Quantity offered (2019)

Stocks level end of month (2019) Stocks level end of month (2018)

0

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12 December 2019

1.1094

EUR/USD

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3 050

2 6952 700

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

12 December 2019

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12 December 2019

3 3253 343

3 880

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

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12 December 2019

4 113

4 076

4 521

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

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12 December 2019

3 788

4 069

3 502

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000Jul 12

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

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337325

126

151

55 4837

252113

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2018 2019

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilExports

New Zealand (up to Sep)

EU-28 (up to Sep)

Belarus (up to Aug)

United States (up to Sep)

Ukraine (up to Aug)

623649

267 278

234 244

134155

125 116

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2018 2019

10

00

to

nn

es

Cheese Exports

EU-28 (up to Sep)

United States (up to Sep)

New Zealand (up to Sep)

Belarus (up to Aug)

Australia (up to Sep)

12 December 2019

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596

762

556

495

228257

110 9495

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Exports

EU-28 (up to Sep)

United States (up to Sep)

New Zealand (up to Sep)

Australia (up to Sep)

Mexico (up to Aug)

882

1 015

267226

92 9972

4144 31

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P. Exports

New Zealand (up to Sep)

EU-28 (up to Sep)

Uruguay (up to Sep)

Argentina (up to Sep)

Australia (up to Sep)

12 December 2019

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EU-28 Exports (1/2)

Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

102 102

120

135

162

137128

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 28%

BUTTER exports

2018

2019

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

520

407

648695

579

780816

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 28%

SMP exports

2018

2019

12 December 2019

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EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

768 786721 719

799828 832

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

386 374390 401

382 393

334

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 4%

CHEESE exports

2018

2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 15%

WMP exports

2018

2019

12 December 2019

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211

229

159

174

124132

95101

85

0

50

100

150

200

250

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

Cheese Imports

Japan (up to Sep)

Russia (up to Aug)

United States (up to Sep)

South Korea (up to Sep)

Mexico (up to Aug)

96

61

54

75

34

45

26 2424 26

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2 018 2 019

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilImports

China (up to Sep)

Russia (up to Aug)

United States (up to Sep)

Australia (up to Sep)

Philippines (up to Aug)

12 December 2019

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418

511

150

n/a

80 7863 63

48 55

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P.Imports

China (up to Sep)

Algeria (no data 2019)

Hong Kong (up to Sep)

Sri Lanka (up to Sep)

Thailand (up to Sep)

239

209

272

109

133

104

n/a

97

125

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Imports

Mexico (up to Aug)

China (up to Sep)

Philippines (up to Aug)

Algeria (no data 2019)

Indonesia (up to Aug)

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

48 52

80 7182

92113

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 36%

2018

2016

2019

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

68

136 139

96 105 9887

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 38%

2018

2019

2019

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

21 21 23 21 29 34 40

1000 Tonnes

Australia

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

18 14 2240 47 43

57

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 11%

2018

2019

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 11%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 31%

2018

20162019

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 31%

2019

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

Notice: for confidentiality reasons, 2019 data for Mexico may be incomplete.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

236198 203

259 286331

360

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

2018

2019

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

168

235 253

200 184

247 280

1000 Tonnes

China

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 30%

2018

2017

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 30%

2019

Jan-Jul 2019 compared to 2018 : n/a

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

106 11395 101

185154 159

1000 Tonnes

Philippines

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

2018

2014

Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 21%

2016

2019

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 29%

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

136155 146 145 159 147 160

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018 : + 29%

2018

2019

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

406

619671

347420 470 521

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : + 22%

2018

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

188142

204 224 224262

150

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

2018

2017 2019

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

71 59 60 72 85 85 87

1000 Tonnes

Sri Lanka

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

64 74 81 75 86 87 104

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 1%

20182019

0

5

10

15

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnesJan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 2%

2018

2013 2016

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018 : - 2%

2019

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

235 236 232 249 258 273 286

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018: + 9%

2018

2016 2017

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

316440

321

209 223 226 250

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2019 compared to 2018: + 10%

2018

2019

12 December 2019

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Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

78 85 97 112 110 125 124

1000 Tonnes

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

154 148 165200 205 183 176

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018: + 6%

2018

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2019 compared to 2018: + 6%

20182019

12 December 2019

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7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

8 800Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

U.S. milk production

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source:USDA

Jan-Oct 2019 compared to 2018 : + 0.3%

12 December 2019

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Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

Jul-Oct 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 : - 5.8%

Australian milk production

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

12 December 2019

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Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Oct 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 : - 0.7%

NZ milk production

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

12 December 2019

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GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 2493 December 2019

-0.5%

$3 467

Event 2493 December 2019

-0.5%

$3 467

Butter

-4.9%$ 3 983

Butter MilkPowder

+1.6%$ 2 846

Cheddar

+2.7%$ 3 797

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-5.1%$ 4 840

Butter

-4.9%$ 3 983

Butter MilkPowder

+1.6%$ 2 846

Cheddar

+2.7%$ 3 797

Lactose

n.a.$ 779

Rennet Casein

+4.9%$ 8 047

Skim MilkPowder

+1.9%$ 3 068

Lactose

n.a.$ 779

Rennet Casein

+4.9%$ 8 047

Skim MilkPowder

+1.9%$ 3 068

Whole MilkPowder

+0.1%$ 3 331

12 December 2019