Mike Groenke (Atmospheric Sciences Major)
description
Transcript of Mike Groenke (Atmospheric Sciences Major)
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MICHAEL A. ALEXANDER, ILEANA BLADE, MATTHEW NEWMAN, JOHN R. LANZANTE
AND NGAR-CHEUNG LAU, JAMES D. SCOTT
Mike Groenke
(Atmospheric Sciences Major)
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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tropical Pacific region Associated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies Warm=El Nino…Cold=La Nina ENSO events drive ocean SST anomalies around
globe “Atmospheric bridge” because connects the world’s
oceans
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Better explanation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8
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Q-net: net surface heat flux We=entrainment heat flux Vek=Ekman transport
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Wait, why do we care? Essential for prediction of SSTs in tropical
Atlantic Contributes to leading patterns of SSTs on
many times scales around globe Tests ability to simulate global atmospheric
response to ENSO Separate between atmospheric forcing and
ocean feedbacks Influence on marine ecosystems
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ENSO Really Matters
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Questions that remain Ocean-atmosphere interactions via changes in
solar radiation, precipitation, and boundary layer processes.
Indian Ocean response to ENSO
Feedback from SST anomalies beyond equatorial East Pacific
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Purpose of this study
Review of how well we understand the “atmospheric bridge”
Present new data/observations
Focus on Pacific North America (PNA) region
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Modeling Used
3 major models were used “Control model” “MLM” or mixed layer model “NP-MLM” or North Pacific mixed layer
model
NCEP-NCAR re-analysis project data also used
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Methods Look at observations from past
Interpret data and form hypotheses and assumptions
Run models and look for reproduction of observed data
Interpret results
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Main Focus
Global precipitation influences from ENSO
Related SST anomalies on different times scales around the globe
Relationship between SST and SLP
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Effects On Global Precip Changes in jet stream
speeds from ENSO
Anomalous clockwise
flow=higher precip
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ENSO Felt Around the World
North Pacific
Opposite sign of ENSO
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
influenced by tropical and
extra-tropical forcing
Far north near “sub arctic
front” not correlated
SST AnomaliesSST Anomalies
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Current Example
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ENSO Felt Around the World Tropical Atlantic:
Warm waters just north of equatorial Atlantic found with El Nino in spring after ENSO peak
Southern Atlantic only weak links plus 3-6 months lag time
Indian OceanWarms with El NinoLag time of 3-6 months, but earlier than AtlanticOften during summer/fall also
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Relationship in SLP & SST’s Stronger Aleutian low (by 9mb) during Nino vs. Nina Causes increased westerlies in north Pacific Advects cold air into northern waters and warm air
along west coast of North America Consistent with previous SST map Model differences likely due to error and missing
ocean dynamics
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Check out the pressure! Observed MLM Simulation
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Shaded areas indicated a 95% statistical significance in difference between taking local coupling effects into account or not
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Other ENSO Induced Effects MLD (Mixed Layer Depth)
The depth at which the temperature is 1 degree C cooler than the surface
Salinity Reemergence of SST anomalies
Fades during summer, but effects next winter
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Summary Atmospheric response to changes in SST’s due to
ENSO influences conditions across the rest of the globe
This connection is called the “Atmospheric Bridge” Clear link in ENSO SST anomalies and other
anomalies in Northern Pacific, north tropical Atlantic, and Indian Oceans
Atmospheric response affects SLP and jet stream patterns across the globe including deep trough near Alaska
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Summary (cont’d) Other impacts include effects on MLD, salinity, and
the reemergence of anomalies during the following year
Changes in net heat flux are the leading driver of SST anomalies in the ENSO region
Ocean-air coupling modifies effects on pressure fields in the North Pacific
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My Thoughts
Good review of impacts from El Nino/La Nina events
Too many assumptions that reader knows extremely technical processes
Further research in this field could improve seasonal forecasting
Lacked significant mention of effects from climate change
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