Migration in the Context of Disaster Risk Reduction and ... › documents › documentcenter... ·...
Transcript of Migration in the Context of Disaster Risk Reduction and ... › documents › documentcenter... ·...
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Úrsula Oswald Spring
CRIM-UNAM, U. Chulalongkorn
Project: DGAPA- IN300213, 18th
December, 2013
Migration in the Context of
Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Model for ASEAN
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Content
1. Research question 2. General view on global migration 3. Some conceptual reflections: Environmental-induced
migration: EIM 4. Methodology 5. Disasters globally and in ASEAN countries 6. Why is Asia so highly vulnerable to disasters? 7. Risk and risk society 8. Environmental and social vulnerability: reinforcing
each other 9. Gender vulnerability 10.Adaptation an resilience-building: top-down and
bottom-up
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2. General view on Migration: 1990-2013
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Migration: brain loss or brain gain?
2010
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Migration in ASEAN countries, 2011
Source: Orbeta & Gonzales, 2013: 4 and 5
per 1000 migrant workers
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Contribution of migrant workers/country
percentFB --- percent foreign-born worker (= FB / LF); percent MW – percent migrant worker (= MW /LF); Source of basic data: WB World Development Indicators, Bilateral Migration and Remittances Matrix, ADB Statistical Database Syst. 2013
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3. Some conceptual reflections:
Environmental-induced migration:
EIM
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1. Research questions
• What is environmental-induced migration (EIM) and why not climate refugees?
• How are poor people living in highly risky regions (affected by climate change and global environmental change (GEC) developing adaptation processes to overcome both social and environmental vulnerability and therefore defending their right for no-migration?
• How many EIM exists in ASEAN countries? There are few data & studies about EIM in ASEAN countries: Threat: 10% (550 million of people lives in 180, 498 islands; 30,000 in the Pacific; 22% of sovereign states are island, but occupy only 1.86% of surface with 13.1% of world heritage sides (UNESCO)
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3. Some conceptual reflections
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• There is no consensus in the concept on environmental-forced or induced migration ( EIM )
• There exist no reliable global statistics on EIM globally and by nations • EIM is a complex phenomena with multiples causes, reasons and impacts at
natural, personal, family , gender , community, national and international level • There is no consensus what should be considered and who should be studied?
– Rural or urban migrants: causes motivations, impacts (person, family, gender, community)
– Transnational migrants with communities in the diaspora – Policy of migration (state, country of origin, labour opportunities in the
destination, social support groups) – International governance of EIM (laws, facilities, environmental migrants)
• What are the causes that force EIM? Complex causes related to: – Environmental pollution , scarcity, degradation or stress – GEC : climate change, scarcity, water pollution, desertification, disasters – Combination of environmental and social vulnerability
• What are the dependent and independent variables? • What is the theoretical debate about EIM?
– Human-centred: anthropological , psychological , sociological – State-centred ( policies on migration , refugees, and asylum ) – International Regimes: evolution and implementation of agreements – Focused on human rights : protection, integration, citizenship, etc.
• What are the principal methodologies that should be applied in a EIM study?
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Migration (3%)
and return
IOM, 2012
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Environmental vulnerability
Pollution and overuse
of water Hunger, malnutrition,
overweight, junk food
Inequality, discrimi-
nation, inequity Poverty, misery,
homeless, insecurity
Social vulnerability
-Extreme events, disasters
-Socio-environmental migration
-Resource conflicts
Human, gender &
environmental
Security: HUGE
Consumerism, GHG,
resource depletion,
pollution, diseases
Demographic , rural
& urban pressure,
public insecurity
Scarcity and pollution
of water
Climate variability,
droughts and floods
Loss of soil fertility,
erosion,
desertification
Loss of ecosystem
services and
biodiversity
-Violence, crime -Ethnic & political conflicts -Urbanization -Environmental and social disasters -Unsustainable modernization -Social vulnerability -Economic crisis, misery Social classes, elite, crime
Source: Transformed by Oswald from Bohle, 2001
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Interrelation of environmental and
social vulnerability
• Environmental vulnerability: related to pollution and water shortages, climate variability, short extreme hydrometeorological events (flash floods), medium (drought, erosion) and long-term (desertification) processes aggravate fragile soil conditions in areas of steep slopes, stony and shallow layers with a superficial horizon of fertility, dramatic loss of ecosystem services, water scarcity and pollution
• Triggering factors: incorrect use of soil, extensive livestock in dry tropical forest, over-fertilization in fragile soils, green revolution, erosion of the land, distribution of small plots of land among numerous male descendants producing smallholding (minifundism) and overexploitation of these mini plots
• Social vulnerability: population growth; urbanization, fractionation of irrigated land for urban resorts; neoliberal policy from 1985 & fast modernization process with indiscriminate importation of subsidized crops; short-term governmental interests, lack of preventive policies and social security support; unemployment; insufficient schools, public insecurity, organized crime, production of illegal crops, fight among criminal gangs for controlling trafficking routes, kidnapping, extortion and robbery
• Outcomes: historical poverty rise with acute marginalization, loss of welfare, crop failures, lack of social security, neglect from government fro counter-cyclical policies, abandonment of affected communities by climate variability, no early warning
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4. Methodology
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Combined methodology
• Quantitative approach: analysis of data series, official statistics, maps, satellite images; survey applied to 3,955 people belonging to 1,019 extended and nuclear households, based on representative sample.
• Questionnaire in five sections: General characteristics of housing; General information of residents and households; Education and language (indigenous); Marital status and economic activity; Internal and international migration; Productive activities; Community activities and local public responsibilities; Decision-making processes and interfamilial violence.
• Qualitative methods: emphasizes in the interpretation of the reality studied: deep interviews with local leaders, politicians and key persons in the communities and the basin, anthropological participative observation and focal groups, local social movements, case studies, participatory rural survey, and comparative regional studies, analysing adaptation processes and resilience-building of different communities exposed to similar environmental and social threats.
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4. Disasters globally and
in ASEAN countries
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Climate Threats, Disasters & Impacts
Earthquakes
MM: modified Mercalli scale
Tropical Hurricanes
Dangerous sea level rise
Permafrost thaw
Increase in droughts
Increase in heatwaves, droughts
Increase in heavy rain
e.g.,
e.g.,
e.g.,
e.g.,
e.g.,
Stronger storms
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Major Floods 1985-2007
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Droughts
36 months of drought conditions starting Sept 2011
302,800,000 People are under severe drought condition Data from UCL global drought monitor. Based on 36 months standardized precipitation index
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Drought and environmental vulnerability due to
Climate change: Palmer drought severity index:
1900-2010
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Social and environmental vulnerability
during 3 decades (1974-2003)
Source: Hoyois and Guha-Sapir (2004)
Total: 2,066’273 dead 5 ,076’ 494’ 541 affected
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CAUSES OF REDUCED SEDIMENT LOAD Wang et al. (2006) Soil Erosion 40% Climate Change 30% Reservoir Trapping 30%
750 000 km2
Des Walling, 2008
The Evidence
Yellow River
Sedimentation in the Yellow River
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Water pollution and degradation of
water quality
© U
NE
SC
O
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2015
Source: U.N. Population Division
1950
Source: U.N. Population Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million
residents
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5. Why is Asia and ASEAN so vulnerable?
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Why is Asia so vulnerable in 2012?
1. 83 disasters - mostly floods - in 2012 killed some 3,100 people, affected 64.5 million and left behind US$15 billion in damage only in Asia. Flood is the most important event.
2. Worldwide 231 disasters killed some 5,400 people, affected 87 million and caused US$ 44.6 billion in damage.
3. From 1950 to 2011, nine out of 10 people affected by disasters worldwide were in Asia.
4. Since 2002, Philippines has had 182 recorded disasters, which killed almost 11,000 people.
5. Country tends to confront specific hazards, but urbanization in flood plain increase the risks of disasters and higher costs.
6. Indonesia and the Philippines have had many disasters but relatively few affected people, while Bangladesh and Thailand have had fewer disasters and more affected, while Pakistan and Vietnam fell in between the two categories.
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Top ten countries by reported events
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Sum of 10 most important disasters
Country Dead Affected
(000)
Damage
(000,000) US$
Types of
disaster
Inhabitants
(2013)
Brunei 0 0 0 ----- 407,000
Cambodia 1,831 14, 973.1 1,005.7 F, H,D 14,572,000
Indonesia 212,086 15, 977.1 24,307.4 E,Fi,V,T 248,731,000
Lao P.D.R. 1,256 8,165.4 479.5 H,F 6,581,000
Malaysia 1,057 1,104.5 1,926.1 D,T,H,E,F 30,476,000
Myanmar 145,001 5,704.6 4,724.8 E,F,Fi,H,L,T 62,342,000
Philippines 25,011 45,318.8 6,565.5 E,F, T 98,007,000
Singapore 36 2.34 0 H 5,437,000
Thailand 12,441 61,523.8 44,985.1 D,E,F,T 67,357,000
Vietnam 16,075 43,650.9 4.569.1 D,H,F,T 89,702,000
E: Earthquake; D: Drought; F: Flood; Fi: Fire; H: Epidemic; L: Landslide; T: Typhon; V: Volcano
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10 most important disasters in Thailand
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Risks and risk
society
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Global Risks (Beck, 2012)
1. De-localization: causes and consequences are not limited to one space: they are omnipresent. Do not respect borders and nation states and have long latency period (e.g. toxic waste, CC): nation-state is not the frame cosmopolitan post-modern authorities
2. Incalculableness: unpredictable, complex, non-linear, global with local impacts and impersonal
3. Uncertainty: unknown, unpredictable future with cascading effects (Fukushima) or tipping points
4. Non-compensatibility: precautionary principle, preventive & proactive instead of reactive behaviour
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What do we mean with risks, loss &
damages: for whom? causes & victims?
• Risks for whom – Damages for whom and from what?: cause nature; cost; social structure and mindset? – Loss for whom and from what? – Vulnerability: social and environmental – Divided world: due to different impacts and coping capacities
• Anticipating thresholds from what to what? – weather related hazards and extreme weather events
• rapid onset hazards • slow onset hazards
– dangerous or catastrophic climate change – chaotic consequences in the climate system (tipping points) – different world views, mindsets and interests
• Business-as-usual • Sustainability transition
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Environmental and social vulnerability
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Managing the risks: typoons in Asia
Economic losses from climate-related disasters have increased, with
large spatial and interanual variation, but are higher in industrialized
countries, while fatalities are higher in developing countries.
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Social sciences incremental & transformative pathways to
resilience
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8. Gender vulnerability
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Why loss & damage?
• Consequence of failures to address mitigation and adaptation
• Part of the climate change agenda that is at the “pointy end”
• How to quantify? • Who is quantifying? • Only economic loss? • Disaster risk reduction and management • Support for climate negotiators? • Financing climate change? • Planning development with climate
change impacts • Challenging mindset? • Changing worldview?
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Risk factors
• more variable rain
• ecosystem
degradation
• hotter days
• discrimination of
women
• poor health and
education
conditions
Gender vulnerability and women’s discrimination increase
vulnerability of exposed communities: even non-extreme events
can have extreme impacts in loss of lives and livelihood
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Girardian: Revision of the Process Model, 2005
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9. Adaptation an resilience-
building: top-down and bottom-up
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Climate
Change
Mitigation,
Adaptation
Resilience
National/
International
Development
Alternatives: Prevention, resilience-building,
sustainable development, poverty alleviation,
planning, ecosystem recovery
Science
Bottom-up
Organization
of Society
Politics: EW,
Prevention,
Norms, Laws,
Institutions
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HUGE-
security
Agenda of livelihood
-Policy of sustainability, equity and equality, negotiation of conflicts, community organization, income, -human rights, social obligations, fight against intrafamiliar violence, communitarian police
Agendas of vulnerability
Arenas of wellbeing
Arenas of vulnerability
Ac
tivitie
s o
f w
ellb
ein
g
Ac
tivitie
s in
cre
asin
g d
ou
ble
vu
ln
era
bility
Ac
to
rs o
f vu
ln
era
bility
Live
lih
oo
d o
f a
cto
rs
-Dangerous, politicized, violent and conflictive environments, abandoned, affected,
destroyed, vulnerable and neglected environments with highly social stratification
Em
po
we
rmen
t, r
esili
en
ce
-
bu
ildin
g, a
da
pta
tion, d
ign
ity,
co
mm
unity o
rga
niz
atio
n,
train
ing, D
RR
-Con
flicts
, cla
sh
es, e
nviro
nm
enta
l de
stru
ctio
n, d
ese
rtifica
tion, s
ocia
l dis
crim
ina
tion
of w
om
en
an
d y
ou
th, e
lde
rly, org
an
ize
d c
rime
, exto
rtion
, kid
na
ppin
g,
- Restored sites, trained people, poverty
alleviation, job creation, solidarity,
governmental support and training for
prevention, & times -S
trate
gie
s o
f ad
ap
tatio
n, re
silie
nce
bu
ildin
g a
nd
su
bsis
tence
cro
ps
- nego
tiation
s, agreem
en
ts, treaties, m
itigation
, adap
tation
and
preven
tion
-Ma
rgin
ally
with
sh
ort
age
, h
elp
less, w
ith
ou
t righ
ts,
ab
an
don
ed,
so
cia
lly a
nd
ph
ysic
ally
ill,
ge
nd
er
dis
crim
ina
tion a
nd
vio
len
ce
,
fem
inic
ide, yo
uth
stigm
atize
d, girls
so
ld fo
r e
arly m
arr
iage
-Org
an
ize
d c
rim
e, lo
ca
l crim
e, m
ach
ism
o, go
ve
rnm
enta
l
rep
ressio
n, m
estizo
lan
dlo
rds a
nd
ho
ard
ers
, tr
an
sn
ationa
l m
ines,
-Lack of education, health, income and employment, governmental support, hunger, extreme poverty, institutional neglect, gender discrimination & violence, mestizo privilege, landlords, organized crime, illegal crops, community conflicts on resources