Migration: Adaptation to climate change or failure to adapt?
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United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security [email protected] Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 “Advancing human security through knowledge- based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“
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“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks “. Migration: Adaptation to climate change or failure to adapt? Findings from a global empirical study Dr. Koko Warner Section Head, Environmental Migration and Adaptation UNU-EHS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Migration: Adaptation to climate change or failure to adapt?
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“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental
risks“
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Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009
Migration: Adaptation to climate change or failure to adapt?
Findings from a global empirical study
Dr. Koko WarnerSection Head, Environmental Migration and Adaptation
UNU-EHS
Bonn, Germany
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Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009
Does climate change affect human mobility including migration?
• 2 issues on global agenda, discussed separately– Climate change and environmental degradation– Migration– Are they linked? Yes…the key is to understand how.
• How many will migrate? Where are they coming from? Where are they heading to?
• Present scientific and political perceptions of the climate change & human security challengeLess developed regions are especially vulnerable to impacts of environmental change (IPCC 4th Comprehensive Report 2007)
„Climate change has serious implications on international peace and security, including migration.“ (UN General Assembly Thematic Debate, 11-12 Feb. 2008)
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Climate change and human movement: Framing the issue
• How many environmentally induced migrants?– Today: 24 million environmentally induced
migrants worldwide (UNHCR 2002). – By 2010: 50 million (Myers 2005)
– By 2050: Estimates vary widely, 200 million becoming a widely cited estimate (IOM 2008)
– After 2050: Up to 700 million environmental migrants (Christian Aid 2007)
Environmental factors are part of complex patterns of multiple causality — closely linked to economic, social and political factors in driving migration
Significant uncertainties warrant more research!
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Sea level rise of 1 meter & population distribution
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Environmental change & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories(WGBU 2007)
Source: WGBU 2007 (modified)
Main trajectories
Is this enough information to assess
climate change & migration / displacement?
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Empirical research
• Need for empirical research – prompted European Commission to
sponsor a first-time ever global scoping study of environmental change and forced migration scenarios ( , www.each-for.eu)
– 23 case studies investigate migrant characteristics and origins, links with environmental change and coping capacity to climate change
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Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009
23 cases worldwide investigating environmentally induced migration, n = 1035
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Egypt
Turkey
Mozambique
Vietnam
Morocco
Ghana
Senegal
Niger
Dominican Republic, Haiti
Mexico
Ecuador
Argentina
Russia
China
Tuvalu
Bangladesh
Spain
Balkan
WesternSahara
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Egypt
Turkey
Mozambique
Vietnam
Morocco
Ghana
Senegal
Niger
Dominican Republic, Haiti
Mexico
Ecuador
Argentina
Russia
China
Tuvalu
Bangladesh
Spain
Balkan
WesternSahara
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Empirical findings1. Links with environmental change: Environmental factors
currently contribute to migration– Livelihoods dependent on environment most sensitive to climate changes– No ‘one-size-fits-all’ model of environmental migration– Border between forced and voluntary migration increasingly blurred– Mass migration triggered by env. reasons could occur when ecosystems
change irreversibly (thresholds passed)
2. Migrant characteristics: Vulnerability profile of environmentally induced migrants– Younger, older, gendered, poorer people more sensitive to environmental
change (constrained coping options) – how far can they afford to move?– Internal migration and resettlement
3. Coping capacity vis-a-vis climate change– Surveys in all case study countries indicated that households expect
migration will become an option in the future if environmental conditions worsen
4. Migration both a coping strategy and flight, adaptation and extreme adaptation– „Migration as adaptation“ option politically challenging– „Migration as extreme adaptation“ challenges humanitarian response
capacity
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Adaptation or Failure to Adapt?
1. Current policy discourse on CC and migration– Genuine concern about the human consequences– Also driven by underlying institutional interests
2. Empirical evidence– Relationships between environmental change and
migration, variety of patterns and contexts– Knowledge base remains limited, more questions than
answers3. Indicators of adaptation or failure to adapt:
– Adaptation: orderly, peaceful, new livelihoods possible, environmental conditions in receiving areas remain stable
– Failure to adapt: chaotic, conflictual, humanitarian crisis, worsening environmental conditions
4. Governance and management of migration key– System transformation (climate change, societal,
technological, economic, political) – Existing strategies will work partially, but new governance
modes also needed
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Thank you!
Dr. Koko Warner
[email protected]: +49 228 815 0226
www.ehs.unu.edu
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Spectrum of Environmentally Induced Migration
Rapid Onset Hazards(e.g. Floods, Earthquakes)
Loss of Ecosystem Services and
Slow Onset Hazards
Rapid and effective social, economic and
physical recovery of impacted areas
Migrant does notreturn to
impacted area
Slow and ineffective social, economic and
physical recovery of impacted areas
ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED
MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALEMERGENCY
MIGRANT
Action of fleeing to save one’s life
Person migrates awayfrom impacted area
Environmental reason for migration
dominant subjectively:reoccurring droughts,
sea-level rise
Environmental reason for migration decision
not dominantsubjectively
NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL
MIGRANT
Accelerated degradationof ecosystems
e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion
Gradual degradation of ecosystems
e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity,
sea-level rise
ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT
ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED
MIGRANT
Migrant does notreturn to
impacted area
Alternative livelihoodwas possible inimpacted area
Alternative livelihoodwas possible in impacted
area but requiredsignificant time
No alternative livelihood was
possible in impacted area
Livelihoods Impacted
Land/home destroyed, lost and/or unsafe
Impacted area no longer exists
ENVIRONMENTALEVENT or STRESS
Source: Renaud et al. 2009
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What is environmentally induced migration?
• No agreed international definition of “environmental migration”
• Working definition
“Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (IOM 2007).
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