Brent Petrie

OCT !.! 1:)~~~

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MIDWAY CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Old Harbor, Alaska

Findings and Recommendations October 1986

Project Team

Katie Eberhart, Project Economist Gwen Obermiller, Research Analyst

Don Shira Director, Project Management Director, Program Development

Robert D. Heath Executive Director

c 1986 Alaska Power Authority

FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Midway Creek Hydroelectric Project near Old Harbor, Alaska

The Old Harbor is a community with a population of approximately 375 located on the southeast shore of Kodi ak Is 1 and. The community economi c ma i nstay is commercial fishing. Electrical needs are met totally by diesel generation, which is provided by Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC).

Under the direction of the Power Authority, Dowl Engineers, Tudor Engineering Company, and Dryden & LaRue did studies of a potential hydroelectric project near Old Harbor in 1982 and 1984. The results are reported in:

Volume C, Final Report, Feasibility Study for Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project (August 1982), and

Financial Analysis of Old Harbor Hydroelectric Project (September 1984).

The 1982 report analyzed the technical and economic feasibility of a 340 KW rlJn-of-river hydro project located on Midway Creek four miles from Old Harbor. The 1984 study provided analysis for a number of different financing possibi­lities for the hydro project and compared those costs to a diesel generation "base case."

Supplementary stream flow data was accumulated by Dowl Engineers for the period June 1985 through January 1986. This data was analyzed for hydrologic potential by the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geologi­cal and Geophysical Services (DGGS). A monthly summary of the hydrologic data is shown in the following table.

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Table 1 MIDWAY CREEK NEAR OLD HARBOR

Monthly Summary Stream Flow Data

MEAN FLOW

(CFS)*

13.2 9.3

10.6 10.0 24.4 34.4 16.9 9.0

25.1 12.3 16.0 18.3

AVERAGE POWER

(KW)

254 179 203 192 468 660 324 172 482 237 308 351

Average Total for year * cubic feet per second

6442/649/1

AVERAGE ENERGY

(KWH)

185,645 130,598 148,491 140,601 341,619 481,899 236,832 125,963 352,153 172,995 225,128 256,195

2,798,118

NOTE - Due to irregularities in flow and scheduled outages of the plant, it was assumed that 90% of the village energy demand would be met by the hydro generation and 10% by supplemental diesel generation.

Assumptions used in the analysis of the hydro project at Old Harbor include the fo 11 owi ng:

Energy Projections

Power Authority staff obtained historic energy use and fuel consumption data from the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC), the utility providing power to Old Harbor. These numbers were then compared to projections used in the consultants' reports. Staff found that the latter projections showed energy demand at Old Harbor increasing at the rate of 2.5 percent annually, from 584,850 KWH in 1983 to 1,006,000 KWH in 2005.

Historical data, however, showed an increase in energy used from 504,434 KWH in 1982 to 566,913 KWH in 1983 and 578,876 KWH in 1985. It appeared that the previous projection of a 2.5 percent increase may be optimistic. Thus, for the Power Authority analysis, the rate of increase in energy use was scaled down to 1. 5 percent per year. Revised projections resulted in an estimated 780,000 KWH energy demand in 2005.

The downward revision in the energy projections resulted in delaying the purchase of an additional generator until 1994. Under the 2.5 percent growth rate used in the previous study, a new generator was required in 1988.

Under the hydropower scenario, it was assumed that 90 percent of the village power would be provided by the hydro project with the remaining 10 percent provided by supplementary diesel.

Fuel Cost Fuel cost scenarios were revised to reflect current Power Authority "medium" and "low" fuel price assumptions. The base used was the current 1986 price of fuel. The current (1986) price of fuel in Old Harbor is SI.40 per gallon.

Hydro Project Costs Project capitar-<:osts were adjusted downward from the consultant's 1982 estimate of $3.99 million (1985 dollars) to $3.55 million (1985 dollars) by Power Authority staff. Hydropower variable cost was estimated at $0.015 per KWH.

A space heating credit was calculated using the same assumptions the consul­tant used in the 1982 study.

Diesel Project Costs The variable cost est"imate used was the same as that in the 1984 study, SO.085 per KWH. It should be noted that this is the AVEC systemwide average, not necessarily the actual cost in Old Harbor.

Fixed costs for the diesel plant were calculated by leaving constant the value of approximately $23,500 shown in the 1984 study for the existing generator

6442/649/2

and adding a value for debt service when (and if) a new generator is pur­chased. It was assumed that replacement generators could be obtained for an average of $300 per KW.

Debt service was calculated at interest rates of 8 and 10 percent for both t~e hydro project and a new di ese 1 generator; loan terms of 20 and 30 years, respectively, were assumed for the diesel and hydro plants.

Conclusions Several scenarios were compared by calculating the present value of their total costs. This method is used to facilitate comparing different projects that have costs spread unevenly over the 1 i fe of the project. A "common denominator" labeled the "present value of costs" is calculated for each project.

Four possible scenarios were evaluated for Old Harbor. Underlying assumptions included either "medium" or "low" fuel price escalation and interest rates of either 8 or 10 percent. The present value of costs and ratio of the diesel base case to the hydropower alternative are shown in the following table. All scenarios have ratios of 1.0 or less. This indicates that the diesel alterna­tive is the more cost effective course under the assumptions used in this analysis. However, if fuel prices escalate more than expected and/or the hydropower project can be built for less money, then the scales might be tipped in favor of the hydropower alternative.

Tab 1 e 2 SUMMARY OF MIDWAY CREEK HYDRO PROJECT PRESENT VALUE COSTS

FUEL INTEREST PRESENT COST/COST PRICE VALUE RATIO

I Base case Medium 8% $3.0 mi 11 ion 1.0 I Hydropower " " 3.0 "

II Base case " 10% 3.0 " .81 I I Hydropower " " 3.7 "

III Base case Low " 2.7 " .66 III Hydropower Low " 4.1 "

IV Base case " 801 2.7 " .79 ,0

IV Hydropower " " 3.4 II

Although hydropower provides a more stable cost of power in the long term and diesel generation provides more problems in the guise of unstable diesel pri­ces, and high costs for dependable operations and maintenance -- the high front-end capital investment of a hydro project is difficult to justify at this time.

6442/649/3

Scenario I -- Base Case

Fu.1 Prier Sc.nlrio 11=101; 2=I.dl: Diesel: (Enl.r Sc.ftlrio thrn typ. "Alt-B"I tlk.: 300

Int: 0.08 Ter I: 20

BASE CASE (s.e l.bl. (-I , P9 III-II

( ... 51/yr) Vi II.,.

Fin Enefgy Fil.d V.riibl. Fu.1 Oil Fu.1 011 10t.1 Aver Cost Yur C .piC i t Y DPi rwI Cost Cod Uni t Cost Co,t Cost Per KWH

kif *1 --------~.--------------------------------------------------------------

1982 n .... 1983 155 198~ 155 1985 155 t .......

1986 155 587559 23607 ~99~3 \.40 8568b 159235 0.27 1987 155 596373 23~aO 50692 I.~O 86971 1611~3 0.27 1988 155 605318 23500 5145~ I.~O 88276 163228 0.27 1989 155 61U'8 23~0 5222~ I.~J 91392 167116 0.27 1990 155 f,236H 23500 53007 I.~f, 9~f,18 171125 0.27 19'1 155 632968 23500 53802 1.~9 97958 175260 0.28 1992 155 6~2~63 23500 5U09 1.52 IOI~16 179525 0.28 1"3 155 652100 2J~0 55~28 1.55 10~996 18392~ 0.28 If"~ 310 6"881 28236 56260 1.58 108702 1931'8 0.29 1'95 310 "IBM m3b 5710~ 1.61 112539 197879 0.29 t9f' 3tO 61 t 886 212,. 57960 J.6~ 116512 202708 0.30 1"7 310 6'2115 2823' 58830 1.67 120615 207691 0.30 1"1 310 702"6 28236 59712 1.71 12'883 212831 0.30 1999 310 71303~ 28236 601108 1. 7~ 129291 218m 0.31 2000 310 723729 28236 61517 I. 78 133855 22]608 0.31 2001 310 73'585 28C!36 '2~~0 1.81 138580 22925' 0.31 2002 310 7'56~ 28236 '3]7' 1.85 1~3~72 235085 C/.32 2003 310 756788 1I236 '~327 1.88 1~8537 2~IIOO 0.]2 2~ JIO 7f,81~0 28236 65292 I. 92 15]780 2~7J(l8 (1.32 2005 310 779662 2823' 66271 I. 96 I 5920B 253716 0.33 2006 310 791 357 28236 ,n65 2.00 164829 260330 (1.33

2007 JIO 903227 28236 6B27~ 2.0~ J 7 Obit 7 2671~7 11.33

.... Discount R~tl': O.~3~ Present Vdlue 30cBI(I~.

Scenario I -- Hydro Hydrt debt ~fr'i(e:

1 n t : 0.08 Hydro ProJect ISee Tible C-3) hrl: 30

'tI.51/yr I Hydro Hydro Yi 1 hqf Hydro- Hydro Debt OLI! , Tot.1 Dlesl'l Dle~l'l Dil'sel Dipsel Total Space Heatinq CredIt Potent Iii Tohl Avrr • Entrgy Source Caplhl Sen ICe .01~Ik.h Hydro Fixed varlclble Fupl Fuel OIl'Sel Fuel C/ i I Savinqs I of Syste. I mitt

ear Dnnd Enerqy Costs 901u~e Cost Cost ((ost Unit Cost CII!.t k.h II) equi~ (2) A~oidrd Cost Cost '''hI / .0851k.hPr Ice /28.3 k.h/qil 0.5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------~---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------_ .. PBb 587559 0 0 0 23607 ~9943 1.40 85686 159235 3600600 127230 89061 70m 0.12 1987 596373 0 0 0 23~80 50692 UO 86971 16\143 3672612 12977~ 908~2 70301 0.12 19BB 605318 0 3550000 0 0 23500 ~1~~2 I.~O 88276 163229 37~606~ 132370 '265' 70S,.' 0.12 IQ89 61~398 552'58 31~337.3 829~ 323631.7 23500 5222 1.43 9139 37962 3820986 135017 '6~02 2650'1 0.~3

1990 62361~ 561252 315337.3 8~19 323756.1 23500 5301 I. ~b 9~62 39262 ~090000 1~~523 105253 25.,,.5 O.~I

1 qf/l 632'68 56'671 315337.3 85~5 323B82.~ 23500 5380 U9 9796 38676 ~171800 147~13 10'505 253053 o.~o

1"2 6~2~63 578216 315337.3 8673 32~010.6 23500 54bl I. 52 10142 39103 ~255236 150362 11l92' 2~91B~ 0.39 Iq~3 652100 ~6890 315337.3 8803 32~1~0.7 23500 5~3 I. 55 10500 395~2 U~031t1 15336' 118532 2m51 0.38 Iq9~ 661881 595693 315337.3 8935 32~272.7 23~OO 5626 I. ~8 10870 39"96 ~4271 ~8 156U6 123321 2~O'''8 0.36

I"~ 671809 60.628 315337.3 9069 32~~06. 8 23500 5710 I.bl 1125~ ~0"6~ ~515690 159565 128303 2365&8 0.35 19% 681886 613698 315337.3 9205 32~5~2.8 23500 5796 t.b~ 11651 ~O9~7 ~60600~ 162756 133'86 23200~ 0.3~

Iq9i 692115 622903 315337.3 93~~ 32U80.' 23500 5883 1.67 12062 ~1~~5 ~6'1812~ 166011 138m 2272~7 0.33

1"8 702~'6 6322~7 315337.3 9~B~ 32~821. 0 23500 5971 I. 71 12~98 ~1959 ~792087 169332 I'~"O 2222'1 0.32

1999 71303~ 6~1730 315337.3 9626 32"63.3 23500 6061 t. i~ 12929 ~2490 ~8B7929 172718 150327 217126 (1.31)

20()0 723729 651356 315337.3 9770 325107.7 23500 6152 I. 78 13386 43037 ~980000 175972 156222 211923 0.29

2001 73~585 661127 315337.3 9917 32525~.2 23500 11244 I. 8 I 13858 43602 5079600 17'~91 16253~ 206323 0.28

,0('2 "560' 6710~~ 315337.3 10066 325~(I3.0 23500 6338 1.85 143~7 ~~185 5181n2 183011 169100 20~88 0.27

2003 756788 68110' 315337.3 10217 32555~.0 23500 6~33 1.88 1~85~ ~~7B6 528~816 1867~3 175932 19~~O' 0.2b

200~ 71181~0 691326 315337.3 10370 325707.2 23500 11529 U2 15378 ~5407 5390512 190~77 183039 188075 0.24

2iJ05 779662 7016'6 315337.3 10525 325862.8 23500 6627 I. 96 15921 ~61}~B 5~98322 m287 I'OU~ 18H77 0.23

2006 791357 712221 315337.3 10683 326020.7 23500 6727 2.0·} 16~83 '6709 5608289 1'8173 1'812B 17~602 0.22

2007 8032n 722905 315337.3 I084~ 326180.9 23500 6827 2.04 171)b5 ~7392 5720~S5 202m 206132 Ib7~41 0.21

Discount Rcllp: 0.035 PreSl'nt Value 297b~S6 .

1 ) 1982 Study, r.ble VII-6, "onthly H~.ting Delands Old Harbor 2) IQ9' DOWl flnio. AnalYSIS, Table F-I

Scenario II -- Base Case

Furl Pr Ie. Scrnu ICI (1=10_; 2=ud): 2 Dlf~fl:

I£ntrr Scrnu ID thrn typr °Al t-8°' 'fl..: 30(1

I r, t : 0.1 T l'r.: 20

BASE CASE Is.r Tablr [-I t Dg I II-I)

(+1.5I1yr) Yill'9 f

Fir. Enuqy F i .td V.ri.bl. Furl DII Fu.1 011 T~tal Avrr CCist Yur C.pu i ty D.und Cost Cost Unit (ost (ost Cust P.r U.H

KII I\l ... I -~---------------------------------------------------------------.----.-

1982 ...... 1983 155 198' 155 1985 155 ...... ft

1986 155 587559 2]607 49943 UO 856811 159235 0.27

1987 155 596373 23"80 501192 UO 811971 1111143 Q.27

1988 155 605318 23500 51,52 UO 882711 Ib3228 0.27

1989 155 6 "398 23500 52224 Ul 91392 Ib711b 0.27

1990 155 62361' 23500 53007 U6 9'b18 171125 0.27

1991 155 632968 23500 53802 1.~9 97958 1752110 0.28

1992 155 6'2'63 23500 5~b09 1.52 101"16 179525 0.28

1993 155 652100 23500 5~~28 1.55 10~9911 18392,. 0.28

199' JIO 661881 18962 562bO 1. 58 108702 193q2~ 0.29

1995 310 671809 28962 5710~ I.b 1 112539 198b05 0.10

1996 310 6alsa. 28962 57960 I.M \16512 201U~ (1.10

1997 310 692115 28U2 59830 1.67 1266~ 20e'llI 0.10

1998 310 702496 28962 59712 1. 71 12'983 213557 0.10

1999 JIO 7t30~ l8U2 60608 1." 129291 218861 0.31

2000 310 723729 28"2 61517 I. 78 13~5 22U~ 0.31

2001 310 734~5 2t962 62""0 I. 81 119586 229982 0.31

2002 310 74~ 28962 63376 1.85 1"~72 235810 0.32

Z003 310 756788 21962 6H27 1.88 1'8~37 2'182b 0.32

2~ 310 76814. 2t96i! 65292 1.92 153790 24103" 0.32

2005 310 7.,,661 28962 611271 1.96 15921)8 254"2 0.33

2006 310 791157 2t962 67265 2.00 111'829 26/056 0.33

2007 310 803227 28962 b8274 2.04 170b47 267883 ~.33

DI scount Ra te: 0.035 Present Vilue 3034123.

Scenario II - Hydro H,dro debt ~erVI(e:

Int: 0.1

Hvdro ProJect (See T,ble C-31 Tirl: 3(1

(t1.51/yr I Hydr~ Hydro VI I Ltgl Hydro- Hydro Debt OLft , lohl DIesel DIesel Diesel Diesel TCJt;1 Space HeatIng Credit Potentul lohl Aver. Energv Source C.plhl ServIce .0151kwh Hydro Fued Varlible Fuel Fuel Dlful FUil 0 II SlVlftgS I Df S~'h. S{KWH

1ur Deund Energy ClSh 901u" Cllst CDst Cost Unit Cost Cost kwh (I) tqulY /21 Avoided Cost Ctlt

'''-h I (.095IkwhPr ice (28.3 kwh/g.t 0.5 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.----------

199b 58755' 0 0 0 23b07 49943 1.40 95b8b 159235 3600600 127230 19061 70114 0.12 1987 596373 0 0 0 23480 50b92 l.40 86971 1611U 3672612 129774 '0842 70301 0.12

1988 605318 0 3550000 0 0 23500 51452 I. 40 88276 I b3228 374bOM 132370 92659 70569 0.12

1989 614l'8 552958 376581. 3 82c/4 38\875.7 23500 5222 1.43 9139 31862 3820c/86 135011 96402 326335 0.~3

Ino b23b14 561252 376581.3 941C/ 385000.1 23500 S301 I. '6 9462 38262 40c/0000 144523 105253 31BOOC/ 0.51

19C/1 632968 5U671 37b58 1.3 8545 385126.4 23500 5380 1.49 97C/6 38676 4171800 147413 10C/505 314297 0.50

11C/2 6421t63 578216 376581.3 8673 3rJ254. 5 23500 5461 1.52 10142 39103 425523b 15031a2 113929 310421 O.~B

19C/3 652100 S811SC/0 376581.3 8803 385314.b 23500 5543 US 10500 39542 4340341 I 5336C/ 118532 306395 (J. ~ 1

1994 661881 5C/5693 37b58J.3 8935 385516.7 23500 5626 I. 58 10870 39996 4~27148 I 5643b 123321 302192 0.46

1C/9S 67180' 60U28 376581. 3 90n 38~6S0. 7 23500 5711) I.bl 11254 ~Oltb4 4515690 ISC/S65 128303 297812 O.~4

1C/9b 681886 61 36C/8 376581. 3 9205 38S786.7 23500 579b 1.64 11651 40947 46(16004 Ib27Sb 133486 2C/3248 0.43

17c/7 69211S 622c/03 376581.3 C/3~4 385'24.9 23500 5883 1.67 12062 ~IH5 4698124 IbbOll I 3887c/ 2884C/I o.~c

1998 702"b 6322~7 37b581. 3 9484 3860b5.0 23500 5c/71 I. 71 121i88 41959 4792087 IbC/332 1444c/O 283534 0.40

1C/9C/ 713034 6~1730 37b58 I. 3 c/626 38b207.2 23500 60bl 1.74 12929 42490 4887929 172718 150327 278370 0.39

2000 7237241 6SIlSb 376581.3 c/770 38635U 23500 6152 1. 78 13386 43037 4980000 175972 15iI222 27Jlb7 0.39

2001 73~S85 661127 376581. 3 'c/17 3B"C/8.2 23500 6244 1.81 13958 43602 507c/bOO 179491 162534 2b75b7 0.36

2002 745604 671044 376581.3 100b6 38664b.C/ 23500 6338 1.85 14347 44195 51811 c/2 183081 169100 2bl732 0.35

2003 7S6788 6811 041 37b581.3 10217 38b7C/7.C/ 23500 6433 1.88 14954 4~786 528481b 18674] 17SCI32 2556S3 0.3~

2004 768140 UI32b 37b581.3 10370 38b951.2 23500 6529 I. 92 15378 45407 5390512 190477 18303c/ 2493JC1 0.32

200S 77C/662 7016U 37b58 1.3 10525 38710b.7 23500 bb27 I. 96 15m 46048 5498322 194287 1c/043~ 2~2721 0.31

~006 791351 712221 376~B1.3 10b83 3872M.6 23500 b727 2.00 Ib'83 4670c/ 5608289 IC/8173 1C/8128 235846 0.30

2007 803227 722c/05 37b58 I. 3 10844 387424.9 23500 6827 2.04 17065 47392 5720455 202136 206132 22868S 0.2B

DIscount R.te: 0.035 Present Value 37337b7.

(I , 1C/82 Study, lible VI'-6. ftDnthly He.tlng Dtlands Old Hirbor (2 , 1C/94 DOWl Flnin, An.lysis, l.blt F-I

Scenario III -- Base Case

fuel Price Scenirlo 11=10.; 2=led): Diesel: (Enter Scen.rio then type "Alt-BO) Sib.: 300

Int: 0.1 Ter.: 20

BASE CASE (see T.ble (-\ ~ pg III-I)

(+I.~l/yrl

Vi I hqe fnl Enl'rqv FUl!d Vor I.ble Fuel 011 Fuel Oil Total A~er Cost

Yur C.piC I ty Dl!und Cost (ost Unit Cost Cost Cost Per KWH ~W (~h)

.--------.. --------------------------_.--------------- ... ---------------1992 tttt It

1983 155 1984 155 1985 155 tUfftlt

198b 155 587559 23b07 ~99~3 1.40 85bBb 159235 0.27 1987 155 59b373 23~80 ~Ob92 1.3~ 83492 1576b4 0.21. 1988 155 b05318 23500 51~52 1.29 81355 15b307 0.26 1989 155 614398 23500 5222~ 1.29 82575 158299 0.21. 1990 155 623614 23500 53007 1.29 8381~ Ib0321 0.2b 1991 155 b32968 23500 53802 1.29 85071 Ib2373 0.2b 1992 155 642463 23500 5~609 1.29 86347 I0445b 0.26 1993 155 652100 23500 55428 1.29 B76~2 166571 0.2b 19'14 310 UI181 ~962 56260 1.29 m57 m179 0.26 1995 310 671809 219'2 57104 1.29 90291 176357 0.2b 1996 310 681886 28962 57960 1.29 9164' 178568 0.26 1997 JIO 69Zlt5 28962 ~8830 1.29 93020 IB0812 0.2b 1998 310 702496 28962 59712 1.29 94416 183090 0.21. 1999 310 7130J~ 28962 60608 1.29 95832 185401 0.26 2000 310 723729 28962 bl517 1.29 972b9 187748 0.26 2001 JIO 734585 289b2 62440 1.29 98728 190130 (1.21. 2002 310 74560~ 28962 63370 1.29 100209 192547 1).21. 2003 310 756788 2896? 64327 1.29 101712 195001 0.21. 2004 JIO 768140 26962 b5292 1.29 103238 197492 0.26 2005 310 779662 28962 66271 1.29 104787 200020 0.21. 2006 310 791J57 299b2 b72b5 1.29 IOb358 202581. 0.21. 2007 JIO 803227 289b2 b8274 1.29 107954 205190 0.21.

Discount Ratl': 0.03~ Present V.luE ?6bIO~6.

Scenar io I II -- Hydro Hwdr0 debt ~el~l(e:

I nt: \1. I Hydro PrOject (SrI' T.ble (-3) Terl: 3(1

1.1.~1/yr) HydrC! Hydro Vllli9' Hydro- Hydro Dpbt O~PI ~ Total DIesel Dle~el DIesel Diesel Total Spice Heallog CredIt Potentul Mil Anr. Enerqy S"urCf C.p I ti I 5pr~l(e .OI~i~lIh liydro Filed Varldble Fuel fUfl Diesel f UI' I 0 II SiV Int)" I of 5yste. 'IV-11M

Y Pd' De.lnd Enrrqy Costs QO'luse Cost Cost c(>~t Uolt C"st Cost hh (Il equlv (2) Avoided Cost Cost (~I (.OB~/~"hPr Ice :2B.3 blh/gil 0.5

... --.-------.-~-------------------------~-.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.------------.-----IqB1l S1755Q 0 0 0 23607 ~'f'fn \.~O 8~686 159235 3600bOO 127230 89061 70m 0.12 )98: SQ6373 0 0 0 23~80 50692 1.34 83~92 I ~76b4 3672612 12977~ 87208 70456 0.12 1988 605318 0 3S50000 0 (I 23500 SII152 \.29 81355 156307 37"60b~ 132370 8539' 73912 0.12 19B<1 61,3q8 552q58 37658\.3 82H 38~87~. 7 23500 5222 I.2q 82~B 3b9BO 3B209B6 13~017 87102 334753 O.S\

1~90 623b14 561252 376581.3 8~ I 'f 38~OOO. I 23500 5301 1.29 8381 37182 "lI~OOOO i~4523 'f323S 328948 0.~3

11191 ,,32'f68 51191171 376581.3 8~~5 385126.' 23~OO S380 I.2q 8~07 37387 ~171800 "7~ 13 'f509q 327~H 0.~2

1'1<12 642H3 578216 376581.3 8673 385254.5 23500 5~61 I.2q 8635 375q6 "25~236 I~0362 'f7001 3258 .. 9 O.~'I

I qrl3 652100 586890 376581.3 8803 3853B".6 23500 55~3 I.2q 87b" 37807 ~3~0341 IS3369 989~1 32 .. 250 O. ~(I

I'Q4 bbl881 5q5693 376581. 3 8'f35 385~16. 7 23500 S626 \.2'f 88'fb 38022 ~"271'8 IS6~36 100920 322b18 0.~9

In5 671809 b04628 376581.3 9069 385b50.7 23500 mo 1.29 9029 3823'f 451S690 159565 10293'f 320952 0.49

1'f96 681886 1113698 37b581.3 9205 38S786.7 23500 57q6 1.2<1 916~ 38461 4006004 162756 104'" 31'f250 ~.47

lqQ7 6'f2115 b22q03 37b5B1.3 n~~ 385q2".8 23~00 ~883 1.29 9302 38b85 4b'f812' 1116011 107097 317513 0.46

1998 702~'f6 63C247 3765BI.3 948~ 3860bS.O 23~00 ~971 1.29 'f442 3S1113 ~7'f2087 1119332 10'f239 315739 o.~~

19qq 713Q3~ 6 .. 1730 37b58 1.3 Q626 386207.2 23~ 6061 I.2q 9~83 39\~4 "B87n9 Ii 271 8 111'2' 313927 O.,,~

2000 nn29 b51356 37b58 1.3 qnO 38b351. 6 23500 6152 Uq 9727 39379 "980000 17~'72 113523 312207 0.43

2001 73 .. 585 661127 37658\. 3 Qql7 386"'f8.2 23500 624~ 1.29 9873 39617 ~079600 17'f"91 1157'f3 310322 CI.;i'

2002 7~560' 6110H 370581.3 10066 J86~"6.q 23500 6338 1.211 10021 3985'f ~181192 1830BI 118109 308396 0.41

2003 750788 68110q 376581.3 10217 386 7'f7. 9 23500 M33 I.2q 10171 4(110" ~284B16 1867'3 120m 306m 0.'0

2(1')~ 7681 .. 0 "1326 376581.3 I 0370 3B6'f~ 1.2 23500 6S2'f 1.2q 10m 40353 5390512 1'f0"77 122881 30~~23 0.40

2005 77'16&2 70lb96 376581.3 10525 387106.7 23S(I() 6627 1.29 11)~7q 40b06 5~98322 19.(,87 125338 3023" 0.39

2(11)6 7'f13S7 712221 376~81. 3 10693 38i26".6 23~00 6727 I. i'9 Iv636 ~OB62 560828'1 1'i8m 1~78"S 300282 0.39

(01)7 803227 722'f05 376~81. 3 IOB4" 387~2~.9 23500 b827 I.2q 107'f5 "1123 57i'()"5~ 202136 130"02 298i'6 0.37

OISCClunt Rate: 0.03~ Pre~fnt Vilue "121901.

(I) 1992 Study, rible VII-6, "onthl~ H@illnq Dp.~nds Old H.rbor (2 \ I~B' 00Wl Flnln. Anilysls, lible f-I

Scenar io IV -- J3<lsc Case

Fuel Price Scenirlo (1:101/: 2=led): Diesel: rEnter ScenarIo then type ·Alt-~·) ,; k w: 300

I r, t : 0.08 Ter,,: 2(1

BASE CASE (see Table [-1 ~ pg Ill-I)

(tl.51/yrl Villige

Flfl Energy Fixed Variable Fuel 011 Fuel 011 Totdl Aver Cost Yur CapaCl tv Oeund Cost Cost UnIt CClst Cost Cos t Per KWH

kW ("'hl ~~----------------------------------------------------------------------

1982 ...... 1983 ,n

-JJ

J98~ 155 1985 155 ........ 1986 15~ 587559 23607 49943 1.40 85686 159235 0.27 1987 155 596373 23480 50692 1.34 83492 157664 0.26 1988 ISS 605318 23500 51452 1.29 81355 1563<)7 0.26 1989 155 b14398 23500 5222~ \.29 82575 158299 0.26 1~90 IC<

~~ 623614 23500 53007 1.29 83814 160321 0.26

199! ISS 632968 23500 53802 1.29 85u71 Ib2373 0.26

1992 155 642463 23500 54609 1.29 86347 164456 ,j.26

1993 Ie-e--J-J 652100 23500 55428 1.29 87642 16657i 0.26

1994 310 6bl881 28236 56260 1.29 88957 1'/3453 0.26

1995 310 671809 28236 57104 1.29 90291 175631 (i.26

1996 310 681886 28236 57960 1.29 91646 177842 iJ .26

1997 310 692115 28236 58B30 1.29 93020 180086 0.26

1998 310 702~9b 28236 59712 1.29 9~416 182364 ',.26

1999 310 71303~ 28236 b060B 1.29 95832 184676 0.26

2000 310 723729 28236 61517 1.29 97269 187022 0.2b

20()! 310 73~585 28236 62~40 1.29 98728 189404 0.26

2002 ]10 745604 28236 63376 1.29 100209 191822 0.26

2003 310 756788 28236 64327 1.29 101712 194275 0.26

2004 310 768140 28236 65292 1.29 103238 196766 0.26

2005 310 779662 28236 66271 1.29 104787 199294 0.26

200. 310 791357 28236 67265 1.29 106358 201B60 0.26

2007 310 8032" 28236 68274 1.29 107954 204464 0.25

Discount fidte: 0.035 Present Value 2655037.

ScerlaY io IV -- Hydro Hydr~ debt ~pr~l(p:

I nt: 0.09 Hydro PrOJ,ct (Se, T.ble (-31 Ter.: 30

i +\.51/yr) Hydro Hydro VIII.ge Hydro- Hydro Debt OLII a Total Dle~el o Jese I Dles,1 Diesel Tot~1 Sp~[e He~tln9 Credit Polentiil lot.l Aver. Enff 9Y Sour {f Capital Ser v I [e .OI51k.h Hydro F llPd Vir I.ole Fuel Fuel Diesel Fuel oil Sivings I of 5yst,. $/KIIH

YPil Du.nd Enerqy Cuts 901uu (o~t (~st Co~t Unit Cost Cost k.h (\I equiv m Avoid,d Cost Cost (~hl ( . 08:i/k.hPr ice (28.3 k.h Igi I 0.5

__ ~4~_. ____________________________________________ ·~_-------------------.-------------.--------------------------------------------------------------------------.---------

198b 587559 0 0 0 231107 ,em3 I. ~O 85b86 159235 3bOObOO 127230 89061 70m 0.12 1987 59b373 ° 0 0 23~80 50b92 1.3~ 83~92 157b64 3b72b12 12977~ 87208 70~~ 0.12 19a8 605318 ° 3550000 0 0 23500 51~52 !.29 81355 156307 37~b06~ 132370 8539~ 70912 0.12 19a9 6H398 552958 315337.3 829~ 32363 \. 7 23~0 5222 1.29 8258 36980 3820986 135017 87102 273509 0."5 1990 62361' 561252 315337.3 B~19 32375b.1 23500 5301 1.29 8381 37m '090000 1'~523 93235 26710' 0.~3

1~91 632968 5,.,h71 315337.3 85'5 323882.~ 23500 ~3BO 1.29 11507 37387 ~17IBOO 1~7~13 95099 266170 0.'2 1'92 6~2~63 578216 315337.3 B673 32'010.6 23500 5'111 1.29 81135 37596 ~255236 150362 97001 2h~605 O.ltl

1~3 652100 586890 315337.3 8803 32~ HO. 7 23500 55.3 I.Z9 87b' 37807 HIt03~1 1533b9 989~1 2113006 0.40

199~ 6111881 595693 315337.3 8935 3Z~272.7 23500 56Z6 1.29 8896 38022 ~~271~8 156~3b 100920 26137\ 0.3Q

1995 671809 hO~o28 315337.3 9069 32~'06.8 23500 ~710 I.Z9 9()29 38239 ~51569() 15~65 10~39 259708 0.39

1996 681886 613698 315337.3 9205 3Z'5'2.8 23500 5796 1.29 9165 38~61 ~60600~ 162756 10~997 25800b 0.38

1997 692115 622903 315337.3 n~' 32~680.9 23500 5883 1.29 n02 38685 ~69812~ 166011 107097 25b2b9 0.37

1998 702"b 6322" 315337.3 9~8' 32~B21. 0 23500 5m 1.29 9H2 38913 ~792087 169332 109239 25~~95 0.311

1999 71303' 6'1730 31~l37.l 9626 32~9b3.3 23~00 60bl 1.29 9583 3914~ ~887929 172718 III ~2~ 252b83 0.3~

2000 723729 6513~ 315337.3 9770 325107.7 23500 61~2 I. 29 9127 39379 '981)000 17~972 113523 2~963 (j.3~

2001 73~585 661127 315337.3 9917 325254.2 23500 62'~ 1.29 9873 39617 5079600 179"1 1157n 2~9078 0.31t

2002 "5hO~ 6710" 315337.3 100b6 325~03.0 23500 6338 1.29 10021 39a59 5181192 183081 118109 2n152 0.33

2003 756788 681109 315337.3 10217 32555~.O 23500 6433 1.29 10171 ~010~ 528~816 1867~3 120~71 2~5187 0.32

200~ 7681'0 b91326 315337.3 10370 325707.2 23S(JO 6529 1.29 1032' ~O353 5J90512 190"7 122881 2'3179 0.32

2005 779662 701696 315337.3 10525 325862.8 23500 6627 1.29 1O~79 ~060b 5~98322 19~287 125338 2~1I3O 0.3\

2006 791357 712221 315337.3 10683 326020.7 23500 b727 1.29 10636 ~0862 5608289 198173 1278'S 239038 0.31)

20u7 803227 722905 315337.3 I08~~ 32bI80.~ 23501} 6827 1.29 10795 ~1I2J 5720~55 202136 13r)~02 236902 0.2Q

Dls(ount Rat,: 0.035 Presrnt V~lur 336'590.

III 1982 Study. l.blr VII-6, "onthly Heatlnq Drlands Old Hirb~r

( 21 ,98' DOVl Finin. Anilysls, Table F-I