Midterm election results · 2014 Midterm Election Results Forecasting and Results Professor Floyd...

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2014 Midterm Election Results

Forecasting and Results

Professor Floyd Ciruli

Crossley Center for Public Opinion ResearchKorbel School of International Studies

November 2014

Ciruli Associates 20141

2014: Wave or No WaveNationalization or All Elections are Local or Both

President Obama’s Approval Ratings2012-2014

Metrics

• Obama spread – (11%)• Congressional approval – 13%• Generic ballot test – Reps 2%• Direction, right – 27%• House 234, need 17• Senate 55, need 6

Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

49%

50% 50%

54%52%

49%

40%44% 42%

48%

48% 47%

42% 43%47%

56%

51% 53%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Approval Disapproval

Senate Majority LeaderHarry Reid

House Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi

SpeakerJohn Boehner

SenatorMitch McConnell


Mark BegichAlaska

Democrat

67%Chance oflosing seat

R +2

Mary L. LandrieuLouisiana

Democrat


R +5

Democrats in Difficult Races

Seats with late poll showing Democrats in danger oflosing. Current prediction: Republicans win sixseats – 75% (538).

Amanda CurtisMontana

Democrat


R +18

Kay HaganNorth Carolina

Democrat


D +1

Mark UdallColorado

Democrat


R +2

Sources: 538, Nov. 3, 2014; Real Clear Politics, Nov. 3, 2014

Mark PryorArkansas

Democrat


R +7


Thirteen Key StatesControl of U.S. Senate 2014

November 3, 2014

LouisianaR-5

West VirginiaR-16

IowaR-2

New HampshireD-1

ColoradoR-2

North CarolinaD-1

South DakotaR-11

AlaskaR-2

KansasI-1

MontanaR-16

ArkansasR-7

GeorgiaR-3

KentuckyR-7

Win the Senate538 – 75% RHuffington Post – 77% RNew York Times – 70% R


Colorado Senate Race Top of ListGardner by Two Points; Post Endorses

Gardner vs. Udall – Real Clear Politics

Source: Real Clear Politics 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

Sen. Mark Udall

Sen. Cory Gardner

“Abut 85 percentof Colorado voters

immediatelydecided who theysupported. Sincethen, the lead has

shifted andremains close.

Gardner’s currentlead is just at themargin of error in

the pollingaverage.”

Denver Post Perspective,10-26-14

Poll Date Gardner Udall

Average 11-2 46% 44%

PPP 11-2 48 45

Quinnipiac 11-2 45 43YouGov 10-31 43 42

Denver Post 10-29 46 44

Quinnipiac 10-27 46 39Rasmussen 10-23 51 45

CBS/NYT/YouGov 10-23 46 47

NBC/Marist 10-22 46 45USA Today/Suffolk 10-21 46 39

Quinnipiac 10-21 46 41Denver Post 10-12 45 43CBS/NYT/YouGov 10-1 45 48Quinnipiac 9-15 48 40

Denver Post 9-10 42 42


Forecasts on Udall vs. GardnerNovember 3, 2014

Forecast %

New York Times 80 R

FiveThirtyEight 81 R

Huffington Post 66 R

Washington Post 97 R

Cook Toss-up

Rothenberg Toss-up

Sabato Lean R

“The forecasters, such asFiveThirtyEight, New

York Times, WashingtonPost and Huffington Post,

are predicting CoryGardner the Senate

winner with higher andhigher percentages.”

The Buzz, 10-30-14

Udall Will Lose


War on Women – Overkill?One Dimensional, Loses Favorability, Alienates Men

Colorado Senate RaceGender Differences

Udall Gardner Difference Favor

QuinnipiacMen 34% 53% 19 GardnerWomen 49 40 9 Udall

Source: Quinnipiac, 10-13-14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

PPPMen 39% 46% 7 GardnerWomen 46 42 4 Udall

Source: PPP, 10-19-14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

USA Today/SuffolkMen 38% 46% 8 GardnerWomen 39 46 7 Gardner

Source: USA Today/Suffolk, 10-21-14Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

“Republicans win asgender gap shrinks.”

Wall Street Journal, 10-24-14


Game Changer – DENVER POST Endorsement

The overall theme is that the best anecdote to gridlock is change.

Washington is gridlocked. It needs “fresh leadership, energy andideas.”

Gardner has been a reservoir of ideas and leadership from thestart of his career.

Udall is a fine man, but “not perceived as a leader” and “not at thecenter of the issues that count.”

Udall’s multi-million dollar “war on women” ad campaign is nowdamaging him more than Gardner. As the Post says, the“obnoxious one-issue campaign is insult to those he seeks toconvince.”

Flipping the Senate to Republican control will, in their view, bemore productive for the next two years. President Obama’s desirefor a legacy and Republican self-interest in repairing theirreputation for gridlock could converge and would be enhanced inthe Post’s view by Gardner’s election (See The Buzz, October 13).


Changing the Turnout?

Voter Returns

ActiveRegistered Date

VoterReturns % Dems % Rep % Unaffiliated %

2,916,145 10-17 27,640 0.9% 8,714 32% 12,766 46% 5,864 21%

2,916,145 10-22 332,050 11% 105,401 32% 145,824 44% 77,285 23%

2,916,145 10-24 518,610 17% 164,443 32% 226,923 44% 121,812 23%

2,916,145 10-29 905,500 31% 294,648 33% 379,250 42% 222,043 24%

2,916,145 11-4 1,607,220 55% 519,225 32% 636,223 40% 433,648 27%

Democrats31%

Republicans32%

Unaffiliated35%

3rd Parties2%

Democrat32%

Republican40%

Unaffiliated27%

3rd Parties1%

Voter Registration – Oct. 2014 Voters In – Oct. 29, 2014


Governor Race - Tie;Denver Post and Pueblo Chieftain Endorse Hick

Gubernatorial Polls

Sources: Quinnipiac, Denver Post, CBS, NBC, YouGov 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

LeftDemocrat

MiddleBipartisan

RightRepublican

14 States 12 States 23 States

Bob Beauprez

Party Control of States – 37 One-Party

Approval 46% to 45% (Sept. 2014); Approval 62% to 19% (Sept.2012); J. Brown Approval 58% (Sept.)


*Nebraska is non-partisan (conservative control)**24 states had one-party control in 1980, 20 states in 1990,

21 states in 2000

Denver Post9-10-14

Denver Post10-12-14

CBS News10-22-14

NBC News10-22-14

Denver Post10-29-14

YouGov10-31-14

Quinnipiac11-2-14

Hickenlooper 45% 45% 48% 46% 46% 44% 43%

Beauprez 43 44 44 41 46 42 45

Don’tknow/other

12 11 8 13 8 14 12

Gov. JohnHickenlooper


Sixth CongressionalDifficult Year for Democratic Challenger

Republican,33.6%

Democrat,31.8%

Unaffiliated,33.6%

Obama Wins it by Five Points in 2012Voter Affiliation in the 6th Congressional District

Andrew Romanoff

Rep. Mike Coffman

Sources: Denver Post 2014Denver District court recordsSecretary of State

Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

Floyd Ciruli

“Nancy Pelosi is notgoing to add 17 seats

(for Democrats toretake the House)

without getting thisone. It’ll be one ofthe most heavily

fought races in thecountry. It’ll be

highly negative. Ihave no doubt about

that.” (Denver Post,Jan. 19, 2014)

2012 votes:

Adams 39,166; Arapahoe 248,461; Douglas 55,287

2012 votes:

Adams 39,166; Arapahoe 248,461; Douglas 55,287


Down Ballot – Republican Advantage

USA Today9-16-14

PPP10-19-14

USA Today10-21-14

Denver Post10-29-14

Attorney GeneralDon Quick, D 30% 32% 31% 38%Cynthia Coffman, R 40 46 42 45Other 5 7 8 6Don’t know 24 15 12 11

State TreasurerBetsy Markey, D -- 40% -- 41%Walker Stapleton, R -- 42 -- 46Other -- 6 -- 5Don’t know -- 12 -- 8

Secretary of StateJoe Neguse, D 29% 31% 28% 39%Wayne Williams, R 35 35 35 43Other 8 13 6 7Don’t know 28 20 31 11

Colorado State Constitutional Offices

Sources: USA Today/Suffolk, PPP 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

Cynthia Coffman

Don Quick


Colorado State LegislatureThe Change

Partisan Comparison

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Governor

2008 37 27 21 14 Ritter

2010 33 34 20 15 Hickenlooper



State House State Senate

Senate House

SD 5 Western Slope HD 3 Arapahoe

SD 11 Colorado Springs HD 11 Colorado Springs

SD 16 Jefferson HD 33 Broomfield

SD 19 Arapahoe HD 50 Greeley

SD 20 Jefferson HD 59 Southwest

SD 22 Jefferson

SD 24 Adams


Colorado Ballot Issues145 Filed, 4 Make Ballot, 1 Ahead

Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

USA Today9-16-14

USA Today10-21-14

Denver Post10-29-14

Amendment 67 - PersonhoodYes 35% 31% 32%No 45 55 54Don’t know 17 13 14

Amendment 68 – Gaming at RacetracksYes 33% 21% 32%No 44 67 63Don’t know 19 10 5

Proposition 104 – School Board Open MeetingsYes 54% 64% 61%No 24 22 24Don’t know 19 14 15

Proposition 105 – Label Genetically Modified FoodYes 52% 30% 34%No 27 49 59Don’t know 19 21 8


$100 Million-Dollar Senate RaceMostly TV, Mostly Negative

ContributionsSeptember 30

Source: Denver Post 2014Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014

Gardner Udall Total

Candidate $ 9.3 million $17.7 million $27.0 million

“Independent” committees 26.8 million 29.2 million 56.0 million

Total $36.1 million $46.9 million $83.0 million

Brandon Rittiman of 9Newstosses coin in debate with MarkUdall (L) and Cory Gardner (R)

Photo: Brennan Linsley, AP


Colorado Politics in TransitionElection Isn’t About Colorado Any More

Nationalization of 2014 Colorado election̶ Change of Senate̶ Forecasting̶ No local issues

Flood of money̶ $100 million Senate̶ Mostly independent expenditures

TV is king̶ TV debates, advertisements, truth tests̶ GOTV is challenger/online third

Denver Post endorsement still powerful̶ Gridlock, change, poor campaign

No access, less free media̶ No mistake campaigns

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