19/01/13Middle East News Brief: compiled by Luke 14:33 A Perfect Storm - or a Volcano? - Showdown in the Middle East........ “We could see a perfect storm of crises converging if the conflict in Syria continues, the Middle East peace process remains stalled, and if Iran will not enter into meaningful negotiations over its nuclear program.” (William Hague, British foreign secretary) "We are sitting on a volcano that is due to erupt in March, when the world will lay a diplomatic plan on the table," she said. "Either they will impose a plan on us, or we can initiate our own plan." (Tzipi Livni, Israel's Kadima Party leader)

London warns of ‘perfect Mideast storm,’ calls for intense peace push

http://www.timesofisrael.com/london-warns-of-perfect-mideast-storm-calls-for-intense-peace-push/Jan 17, 2013The British foreign secretary warned of the dire consequences of letting the current turmoil in the Middle East continue unabated Thursday, calling on the US to lead a renewed drive for peace of the type not seen in decades.

“2013 will be a crucial year in the Middle East,” William Hague said at the Menzies Research Centre in Sydney, where he delivered the John Howard lecture. “We could see a perfect storm of crises converging if the conflict in Syria continues, the Middle East peace

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process remains stalled, and if Iran will not enter into meaningful negotiations over its nuclear program.”

Hague said US President Barack Obama should take charge and launch an intense drive for peace matching that of the last major Israeli Palestinian breakthrough in 1993.

“This is a tall order, but the situation is urgent and the consequences of failure extremely grave,” he added.

Netanyahu: Obama and I differ on peace process

http://www.jpost.com/Features/FrontLines/Article.aspx?id=299991

Jan 18, 2013

He is in an enviable political position, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. He is in a political position most other world leaders would die for. Here he is, just a few days from elections, and his worry is not whether he will win the upcoming elections, but rather by how much, by how large a majority, and who he will need to bring into his governing coalition.

Think about that for a moment.

This is a leader widely assailed by much of the world; a leader whom a US columnist this week reported was verbally dumped on by US President Barack Obama. This is a leader whose own commitment to peace has been not so subtly questioned by even his own president, and whose former security services head –

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Yuval Diskin – trashed a few weeks ago in a six-page spread in one of the nation’s leading papers, a paper that itself has been driven by a campaign to dethrone him.

This is a leader whose predecessor – Ehud Olmert – blames for wasting NIS 11 billion on delusional, adventurous military plans. And yet this is a leader going to the elections on Tuesday not wondering whether he will win, but rather how wide his margin of victory will be.

And that explains the calm with which Netanyahu welcomedThe Jerusalem Post on Tuesday to his small, map lined study in the Prime Minister’s Office. “I always keep a map with me at any office,” he said, “to remind me of where we live.”

And where we live is a neighborhood in which he argues you need three components to survive: Unassailable defense, a robust economy, and the knowledge of what we are doing here in the first place.

One expects to hear riffs on security and the economy when sitting with Netanyahu. But what was a bit different this time – what he took obvious pains to stress – was the part about knowing why we are here.

Netanyahu stressed that he has reinstated the Prime Minister’s Bible Study group, and revived the national Bible Quiz for Adults. “This is real; it reflects my own values, what I was brought up with. That I received a deep Jewish education, grounded in Jewish history and

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grounded in the Bible. This is what I imparted in my children, and something I want to impart to all the children of Israel. It is deep, and people know it. It is not a flag we raise before the elections, it is something that emanates from a wellspring of values that animates me and the Likud as a whole.”

Benjamin Netanyahu defies Barack Obama to approve more homes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/9808734/Benjamin-Netanyahu-defies-Barack-Obama-to-approve-more-homes.html

Jan 17, 2013

Permission was given for new 114 new houses in Efrat, south of Jerusalem, and another 84 in Kiryat Arba, near Hebron, after it was claimed Mr Obama believed the Israeli prime minister was dragging Israel deeper into international isolation with successive settlement expansions.Mr Netanyahu, in the midst of a close general election campaign, effectively told Mr Obama to mind his own business in a veiled but pointed response to the US president's purported belief that Mr Netanyahu "does not know what Israel's best interests are"."Everyone understands that only Israelis will determine who faithfully represents Israel's vital interests," Mr Netanyahu said on a visit to the Israeli army's Gaza Division on Wednesday.His comments addressed the furore triggered by a well-connected American journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg, who wrote in a column for Bloomberg that Mr Obama

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viewed Mr Netanyahu as a "political coward" held hostage by the Jewish settler lobby and whose policies threatened Israel's long-term survival.The alleged remarks have reverberated across the Israeli political landscape, with commentators noting that the White House had not issued a denial.Some analysts believe Mr Obama was taking revenge for Mr Netanyahu's ill-concealed preference for the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, in last year's US presidential election.Mr Netanyahu, who has angered the US and EU in recent weeks with a series of plans for thousands of new homes on land the Palestinians claim for a future state, has attempted to turn the issue to his own advantage by depicting himself as a strong leader who has resisted international demands that he compromise on Israel's vital interests."In the past four years we have withstood mighty pressures," he said."They demanded that we rein in the pressure against Iran and withdraw to the 1967 lines, they wanted us to partition Jerusalem and not to build in Jerusalem. We fended off all these pressures."The final opinion polls before next Tuesday's general election showed Mr Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Beiteinu bloc on course to win between 32 and 37 Knesset seats, down from 42 at present and well below the numbers election strategists hoped for.Russia Building Toward Military Dominance

http://www.bibleprophecyblog.com/2013/01/russia-building-toward-military.html#Jan 16, 2013

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The U.S.S.R. has been gone for just over 21 years now, the terror it once exercised over the West deflated into a patched-up old Halloween ghost. Yet, despite the death of the superpower, Russia's determination to expand its military might has hardly waned. Russia has recently touted itself as producing the best military hardware in the world, and the nuclear power continues to provide all manner of weaponry to the buyers in the Middle East and elsewhere, despite complaints from the western countries whose enemies Russia is arming.Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that Russia sold more than $14 billion in arms and services in 2012. Russia exports its weapons and hardware to eighty-eight countries. Fifty-seven countries are regular buyers, and India remains the largest buyer of Russian military equipment. Putin promises to increase his country's military spending by $770 billion from 2014-2020. Russia's booming sales and profits from their natural oil and gas resources have allowed them to increase their manufacturing of military hardware for export.Russia's T-90, T-70 tanks, and Su-35M jets arm some of the strongest armies in Africa, namely Algeria, Uganda, and Chad. Business Insider has called the T-90 Russian battle tank "just as advanced" as the United States' M1 battle tank at more than half the cost. Russia plans to introduce the T-99 in 2014.The Su-35 Russian jet is a twin-engine multi-role fighter, an old name on a new plane that Russia hopes will dominate the world market. Libya was a major buyer of the aircraft before the overthrow of the Gadhafi regime. Fresh talks between the new Libyan

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authorities and Russia are expected to resume military cooperation between the two parties. Libya recently signed a contract to upgrade 200 T-72 tanks, offering Russia another promising customer as it seeks to build business in the market of restoring, upgrading, and repairing military hardware.Russia has a healthy portfolio of agreements with Iraq worth more than $4 billion. Between tanks and aircraft, other countries have a shopping list of items to purchase from Russia's weapons and hardware store.

• Russia's MSTA-S 152mm self-propelled howitzer has been in service since 1989. There are currently 800 in Russia's inventory. The uniqueness of this weapon is the fact that it can run on six different fuel types, among them diesel, gas, aviation fuel, and spirit alcohol.

• The Sukhoi T-50 is Russia's fifth generation of stealth fighter jets a likely contender with the U.S. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jet and slightly faster than the F-22 Raptor by 190 km/h. The Russian Defense Ministry plans to purchase 60 of these fighters by 2016 while confining the development cost to $10 billion with a lifespan of 30 years.

• The Yasen-class submarine has been called the quietest sub in the ocean by the Office of Naval Intelligence. It carries up to 32 cruise missiles and is scheduled for ocean deployment by 2015 at a cost of $1.2 billion each. Perhaps the development of the Bulava, Sineva, and Layner ballistic missiles best describe why Russia is obsessed with submarines.

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These three submarine-launched ballistic-missiles ( SLBM's ) are the forefront of Russia's naval missile defense. The Layner SLBM is scheduled to augment the Bulava and has 12 warheads capable of piercing anti-ballistic missile defenses. The Bulava SLBM nuclear warhead carries six 150 kiloton bombs with an effective range of 6,100 miles. They are expected to be in operation this year.

Russia is also expanding its littoral water fleet navy with the Steregushchy-class corvette ships. There are currently three ships in service with three under construction, and two more for export to Algeria. At a cost of $150 million per ship exported, these vessels are far more affordable than the planned U.S. Littoral Combat Ships with their price tag of $1.2 billion each.

EURASIAN UNION

Russia's key plan to strengthen its conventional military and strategic nuclear capabilities is perhaps the forefront of Vladimir Putin's vision to enact a Eurasian Union. The U.S. State Department has accused Russia of using the Eurasian Union as a cover to "re-Sovietize" those countries that were part of the former Soviet Union.One of Russia's closest allies is Syria. Syria has opened its port of Tartus, allowing Russia's Black Sea Fleet to base their warships as a strategic show of force against the Mediterranean NATO fleets. Russia has not confirmed that it has exported a supply of S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to the Syrian government leadership under President Assad.

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Russia has maintained a strong military presence in Syria, causing a challenge for a future U.S. led intervention in that region. Russia's military advisors are currently manning Syria's sophisticated missile-defense systems. Moscow has upgraded Syria's old surface-to-air systems and deployed new ones since the Syrian revolution broke out 21 months ago. The strategic deployment of these defense systems makes it risky and costly for any future western campaign to support a no-fly zone or air strikes against the current leadership.Guy Ben-Ari, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said:"They [Russia] didn't just sell the equipment. They also help man the crews and train the crews. Sometimes, there is just no domestic capacity to run these systems, and that is the case in Syria where Syrian crews are not capable of using the equipment to its full capacity."

Moscow has invested a great deal in Syria, and it doesn't want to lose that investment.Putin is determined to have his Eurasian Union become "one of the global poles of power." Some analysts speculate that Russia intends to increase its annual budget for national defense and security by 30 percent. A show of increased military strength at home and abroad is Vladimir's warning to the U.S. that he is prepared to defend his Eurasian Union policy—with force if necessary.Iran Navy to Deploy to Mediterraneanhttp://en.rian.ru/military_news/20130116/178824364/Iran_Navy_to_Deploy_to_Mediterranean.htmlJan 16, 2013

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MOSCOW, January 16 (RIA Novosti) - Iran will deploy a fleet of warships to the Mediterranean Sea, Navy chief Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said on Wednesday.“The Navy’s 24th fleet of warships will patrol the north of the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden, Bab-el-Mandeb, the Red Sea, Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea for three months and will even sail as far as southeastern Asian countries,” Sayyari was quoted by Press TV as saying.The 23rd fleet of warships will return to the country next week, he added.Referring to the Navy’s recent drill, dubbed Velayat 91, Sayyari said the maneuver displayed Iran’s naval capability and its ability to counter any threat against the interests of the Islamic Republic.On Friday, Iran Navy launched six-day naval drills codenamed, dubbed Velayat 91, to “defend its maritime borders and maintain lasting peace in the region.”The exercises covered a vast area including the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, north of the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

Putin: Eurasian Economic Union treaty to be ready for signing by May 2014

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/russia-and-former-soviet-union/putin-eurasian-economic-union-treaty-to-be-ready-for-signing-by-may-2014-317896.htmlJan 19, 2013Moscow - A draft treaty to set up the planned Eurasian Economic Union is due to be ready for signature by May 2014, said Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"We have instructed the governments of the three countries [Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan] to step up work so that the governments approve this plan by May

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1 and the draft treaty is submitted for signature by May 2014, so that [the Eurasian Economic Union] is effective from January 1, 2015," Putin told reporters after a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Moscow on Wednesday.

In comments on the Customs Union, Putin said trade between its member countries - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan - had grown 10% since the Union came into being while Russia's trade with the rest of the world had gone up only 4.7%.

He added that machinery and industrial equipment account for one-fifth of the volume of trade within the Customs Union whereas in Russia's trade with the rest of the world they only make up 2%.

"This means that we are not only acceptable in terms of labor productivity but that in terms of development of our transportation infrastructures and cooperation between our key enterprises we are very attractive and effective partners," he said.

The Customs Union helps its member countries become more competitive, he argued.

He also said an agreement had been reached at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting to do more intensive work on the worldwide role for the Eurasian Economic Union.

Russian warships arrive for major exercise off coast of Syria

http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/01/13/russian-warships-arrive-for-major-exercise-off-coast-of-syria/Jan 13, 2013

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MOSCOW — The Russian Navy has completed preparations of a major exercise along the coast of Syria.Officials said the Russian Navy has sent a fleet to the eastern Mediterranean Sea for a major exercise in mid-January. They said the four-day exercise would include combat and logistics vessels.“A tactical group of Black Sea Fleet warships headed by the cruiser Moskva will undertake exercises in the eastern sector of the Mediterranean Sea,” the Russian Defense Ministry said. “The tanker Ivan Bubnov has fueled the ships and emergency drills have been carried out. On Jan. 10 the tanker filled its fuel and water tanks and food stores at the Cyprus port of Larnaca.”In a statement on Jan. 11, the ministry said the exercise would include ships from the Russian Navy’s Black Sea and Baltic fleets. The statement did not say whether Syria would participate in the exercise, which would include night operations. Russia operates a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartous.The Defense Ministry said two vessels of the Baltic fleet, Yaroslav Mudry, patrol vessel, and Lena, a tanker, would dock in Malta for a rest stop. The statement said the two ships would then head to the easterneastern Mediterranean for anti-submarine and evacuation drills.Another vessel, the Severomorsk, a frigate, would visit Greece. The ministry said Severomorsk would continue to the Gulf of Aden for an anti-piracy mission scheduled to begin on Jan. 14.

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“Russian Naval Infantry soldiers will visit a NATO training center to get additional training,” the ministry said.REPORT: Assad Has Left Syria For A Warship In The Mediterranean

http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-president-assad-living-warship-russian-security-mediterranean-sea--2013-1Jan 14, 2013After nearly two years of conflict and 117,000 displaced Syrians the UPI reports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family may have left the country to live aboard a warship manned by Russian security.

UPI cites an unconfirmed Al-Watan report that claims Assad's family is somewhere in the Mediterranean Sea and that the now semi-deposed president travels back to the country by helicopter for meetings and receptions.

Al-Watan is not the most reliable source. The fact their report is unavailable, and also unconfirmed by UPI, leaves a heavy doubt lingering over the Assad offshore family charter. But, we've seen Syrian news downplayed before when nobody on the ground was able to "confirm" reports to the satisfaction of many Western news outlets. Every policy think tank expert in the world has an opinion on how the Syrian crisis will end, before it does, this is one possibility that slipped out through UPI:

When [Assad] flies to his embattled country, the president lands at undisclosed locations and is transported to the presidential palace under heavy

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guard, the sources said. The Russian-guarded warship provides a safe environment for Assad, who has lost confidence in his own security detail, the report said.

Assad's presence on the warship suggests he has been granted political asylum by Russia but there has been no official comment from Moscow, the newspaper said. Assad's presence on the ship could be a sign of looming negotiations on the conflict in Syria, the report said.

While negotiations continue stumbling toward a beginning, Assad can take little comfort in the rebels growing proficiency with surface-to-air missiles. Regardless of where he is, Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) have been appearing with great frequency among rebel forces and it only takes one shot to take down a helicopter flying in off the coast.

Even if Assad is taking comfort in the balmy Mediterranean breezes offshore, that long helicopter ride back into the country would be pretty tense.

Assad and family said to be living on a warship

http://www.timesofisrael.com/assad-and-family-said-to-be-living-on-a-warship/Jan 14, 2013Embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad has moved with his family and a select cadre of associates to a warship off Syria’s coast, where he is being guarded by Russian naval forces, a Saudi daily reported on Monday.

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The Russian protection effectively amounts to political asylum for the Syrian president, unnamed intelligence sources told the Saudi daily al-Watan. Assad now travels by helicopter to mainland Syria for official meetings in his presidential palace in Damascus, having lost faith in his security detail, the report said.

Assad has grown increasingly entrenched in the 22 months since the start of a popular uprising that has called for his ouster and claimed the lives of over 60,000 Syrians, according to UN figures. Russia has remained the regime’s staunchest ally, vetoing international intervention at the UN Security Council.

Al-Watan previously reported that Iranian intelligence had succeeded in recruiting Assad’s maternal cousin, Colonel Hafez Makhlouf — unbeknownst to Assad and his intelligence — causing the Syrian president deep concern regarding security breaches.

On Monday, government airships attacked an opposition stronghold in the Damascus suburb of Maadamiyeh, killing at least 13. Opposition activists described the raid as one of the heaviest barrages of the Damascus region since the government launched an offensive in November to dislodge rebels from the capital’s outskirts.

The intelligence sources told al-Watan that Assad’s fear of opposition advances in the capital was among the reasons for his retreat to sea, which would allow for quick evacuation to Moscow if need be.

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Russia has endorsed a speech by Assad last week in which he offered to end the crisis by calling national elections and forming a new government.

Britain and France 'spearheading new Middle East peace plan'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/9798855/Britain-and-France-spearheading-new-Middle-East-peace-plan.htmlJan 13, 2013The initiative is expected to be tabled by March following the formation of a new Israeli government after next week's general election. It will include a provision for a Palestinian state with its capital in east Jerusalem – a major sticking point in past negotiations.The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said the plan was being spearheaded by Britain and France with Germany's support. It could eventually be adopted as a pan-European initiative by the EU's foreign policy chief, Baroness Ashton, the newspaper reported.Disclosure of the initiative follows international condemnation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Right-wing government over a recent wave of plans to expand West Bank settlements, which the EU and US fear could kill off prospects for a two-state solution."We do know that the EU is planning to come up with something after the elections, when the new government has been formed," one Israeli official told The Daily Telegraph."We don't know if it's going to be a fully-fledged plan, or an idea or something more or less ambitious because we have not been consulted. We believe they may

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want to put forward some sort of deal with parameters but they are perfectly conscious of the fact that an agreement can only be negotiated between the two sides."Citing Israeli diplomatic sources, Yedioth Ahronoth, said the proposal would suggest negotiations based on pre-1967 borders with possible land swaps and push for all core issues to be resolved by the end of 2013. It would also demand a freeze on building work in the settlements."There is great movement behind the scenes. The Europeans can't force Israel to enter into an agreement, but they can certainly put us in an awkward position," an Israeli diplomatic official told the newspaper."It is likely the Palestinians will accept it and that Israel will have some difficulty. It will drive us into the corner."Mr Netanyahu said Israel would continue to build after security forces early on Sunday evicted dozens of Palestinian activists from a makeshift protest camp in the highly-sensitive E1 area in the West Bank.The camp, known as Bab al-Shams, was erected last Friday in protest at Israel's decision to start planning processes for building new settlements, despite warnings that it could destroy the territorial coherence of a future Palestinian state."We will not allow anyone to harm the contiguity between Jerusalem and Maale Adumim [a Jewish settlement next to the area]," Mr Netanyahu told the Israeli cabinet after praising the eviction of the activists.The Foreign Secretary, William Hague, told the Commons last month that he was consulting with his

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French and German counterparts about how to lend European weight to a US-led peace initiative.“The Foreign Secretary has made the UK position clear in recent statements to the House,” a Foreign Office spokesman said. “The only way to give the Palestinian people the state that they need and deserve and the Israeli people the security and peace they are entitled to, is through a negotiated two-state solution, and time for this is now running out.“This requires Israelis and Palestinians to return to negotiations, Israel to stop illegal settlement building, Palestinian factions to reconcile with each other and the international community led by the United States and supported by European nations to make a huge effort to push the peace process forward urgently.“The UK is working with international partners to that end.”A spokesman for Baroness Ashton said she had been asked to take the lead in promoting peace talks. “There is no secret initiative on the Middle East peace process,” he said. “However, the last meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council tasked the High Representative [Baroness Ashton] to take the lead in advancing the work on the Middle East peace process on the various strands.”Putin second to 'Nobody' on world's most powerful list

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsDWcB6mKdM(3 minute news video clip)Putin second to 'Nobody' on world's most powerful list - thinktank

http://rt.com/news/putin-powerful-people-list-329/

Jan 4, 2013

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International political thinktank Eurasia Group has ranked Russian President Vladimir Putin second on its list of the world's most powerful people. The first position is held by 'Nobody,' reflecting the perception of a world without a clear leader.The list, published by Foreign Policy magazine, ranks individuals’ ability to singlehandedly “bring about change that significantly affects the lives and fortunes of large numbers of people.”

Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer explained that he left the fist position empty because the modern world has no clear leader, and those in power are focused on domestic or regional issues rather than global challenges.1. Nobody2. Vladimir Putin3. Ben Bernanke4. Angela Merkel5. Barack Obama6. Mario Draghi7. Xi Jinping8 (tie). Ayatollah Khamenei8 (tie). Christine Lagarde10. King Abdullah Bin Abd al-Aziz

Putin’s second-place rank is due to “Russia's personalized system,” and the influence the country wields in regional affairs.

Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke holds the third position because of the number of levers he can pull to influence the US economy, and by extension the global economy.

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Other individuals mentioned are German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for policies that are “the glue that binds Europe,” US President Barack Obama, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and China’s new leader Xi Jinping.

Tied for 8th place are Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

The ailing ruler of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah Bin Abd al-Aziz, rounded the list for his ability to determine the succession of leadership in the hydrocarbon powerhouse.Russia rejects Assad exit as precondition for Syria deal

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/12/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE90A0NH20130112?Jan, 12, 2013(Reuters) - Russia voiced support on Saturday for international peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi but insisted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's exit cannot be a precondition for a deal to end the country's conflict.

Some 60,000 Syrians have been killed during the 21-month-old revolt and world powers are divided over how to stop the escalating bloodshed. Government aircraft bombed outer districts of Damascus on Saturday after being grounded for a week by stormy weather, opposition activists in the capital said.

A Russian Foreign Ministry statement following talks on Friday with the United States and Brahimi reiterated calls for an end to violence in Syria, but there was no sign of a breakthrough.

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Brahimi said the issue of Assad, whom the United States, European powers and Gulf-led Arab states insist must step down to end the civil war, appeared to be a sticking point at the meeting in Geneva.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said: "As before, we firmly uphold the thesis that questions about Syria's future must be decided by the Syrians themselves, without interference from outside or the imposition of prepared recipes for development."

Russia has been Assad's most powerful international backer, joining with China to block three Western- and Arab-backed U.N. Security Council resolutions aimed to pressure him or push him from power. Assad can also rely on regional powerhouse Iran.

In Geneva, Russia called for "a political transition process" based on an agreement by foreign powers last June.

Brahimi, who is trying to build on the agreement reached in Geneva on June 30, has met three times with senior Russian and U.S. diplomats since early December and met Assad in Damascus.

Russia and the United States disagreed over what the June agreement meant for Assad, with Washington saying it sent a clear signal he must go and Russia contending it did not.

CONFLICT INTENSIFIES

Moscow has been reluctant to endorse the "Arab Spring" popular revolts of the last two years, saying they have increased instability in the Middle East and created a risk of radical Islamists seizing power.

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Although Russia sells arms to Syria and rents one of its naval bases, the economic benefit of its support for Assad is minimal. Analysts say President Vladimir Putin wants to prevent the United States from using military force or support from the U.N. Security Council to bring down governments it opposes.

However, as rebels gain ground in the war, Russia has given indications it is preparing for Assad's possible exit, while continuing to insist he must not be forced out by foreign powers.

Opposition activists say a military escalation and the hardship of winter have accelerated the death toll.

Rebel forces have acquired more powerful anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons during attacks on Assad's military bases.

President Assad's forces have employed increasing amounts of military hardware including Scud-type ballistic missiles in the past two months. New York-based Human Rights Watch said they had also used incendiary cluster bombs that are banned by most nations.

STALEMATE IN CITIES

The week-long respite from aerial strikes has been marred by snow and thunderstorms that affected millions displaced by the conflict, which has now reached every region of Syria.

On Saturday, the skies were clear and jets and helicopters fired missiles and dropped bombs on a line of towns to the east of Damascus where rebels have pushed out Assad's ground forces, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

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The British-based group, which is linked to the opposition, said it had no immediate information on casualties from the strikes on districts including Maleiha and farmland areas.

Rebels control large swathes of rural land around Syria but are stuck in a stalemate with Assad's forces in cities, where the army has reinforced positions.

State TV said government forces had repelled an attack by terrorists - a term it uses for the armed opposition - on Aleppo's international airport, now used as a helicopter base.

Reuters cannot independently confirm reports due to severe reporting restrictions imposed by the Syrian authorities and security constraints.

On Friday, rebels seized control of one of Syria's largest helicopter bases, Taftanaz in Idlib province, their first capture of a military airfield.

Eight-six people were killed on Friday, including 30 civilians, the Observatory said.

New Russian nuclear submarine enters service

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-nuclear-submarine-enters-160331789.htmlJan 10, 2013MOSCOW (AP) — The Russian navy on Thursday hoisted its flag on a new nuclear powered submarine intended to form a key part of the country's future nuclear deterrent. It is part of an ambitious weapons modernization effort that comes as the military is preparing for a naval exercise off Syria's shores.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the war games in the Mediterranean will be the biggest such exercise

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since Soviet times and involve ships from all four Russian fleets. The maneuvers have been seen as a demonstration of Russian naval power and a show of support for an old ally, whom Moscow has shielded from international sanctions.

Shoigu made the statement after commissioning the new Yury Dolgoruky nuclear submarine, which carries 16 Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles. It is the first of a new series of Borei-class submarines that will replace older Soviet-built ships. Another submarine of the same type is currently undergoing sea trials and two others are now under construction.

President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Yuri Dolgoruky's crew during a conference call Thursday, hailing the ship as a "powerful weapon that will guarantee our security."

"Submarines of that class will become an important element of sea-based strategic forces, a guarantor of global balance and security of Russia and its allies," Putin said.

Commissioning of the new submarines is part of an ambitious arms modernization program that envisages spending over 20 trillion rubles ($657 billion) on new weapons through 2020.

Putin said Thursday that 4 trillion rubles ($132 billion) of that money will be spent on commissioning the new submarines and other navy ships. "Modernization of the navy is one of the most important priorities in our work to strengthen the armed forces," he said.

Putin said the navy will commission the total of eight Borei-class ICBM nuclear submarines and eight nuclear

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submarines of a different Yasen class intended to hunt for enemy ships.

The construction of the Yuri Dolgoruky, named after a medieval Russian prince who founded Moscow, began in 1995 but was slowed down by a post-Soviet economic meltdown and it wasn't until 2009 when it finally entered sea trials. The submarine's commissioning was delayed further by problems with the new Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile intended to arm it.

The Bulava experienced a string of failures during tests that dragged on for years, raising doubts about the future of the most expensive military project in Russia's post-Soviet history. Recent tests, however, have been successful, allowing the navy to finally commission the submarine.

Shoigu, who attended the commissioning of the new submarine at a shipyard in Severodvinsk, said that the Bulava is fully combat ready.

Facing questions about Bulava, Putin's chief of staff Sergei Ivanov also insisted that "the navy has no reason to doubt its reliability."

A hawkish Russian Cabinet member marked the ceremony with a tongue-in-cheek comment mimicking the Cold War-era diatribes of Soviet leaders. "You bourgeoisie tremble! You are screwed!" Dmitry Rogozin, deputy prime minister in charge of military industries, wrote on Twitter.

Rogozin, a nationalist politician in the past, has been known for his bellicose and sometimes crude statements.

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Ya'alon speaks against founding of Palestinian state

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=299335Jan 12, 2013Vice Premiere Moshe Ya’alon (Likud) ruled out the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel, while speaking at a cultural event on Saturday afternoon.

"As far as I'm concerned, the [Palestinian] Authority can call itself the Palestinian Empire," he said at the event in the Sharon region. "The goals of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas are similar to those of Hamas," he purported.

Tzipi Livni meanwhile, called for the renewal of the peace process. "The United Nations' decision was just the overture," the Tzipi Livni Party leader said. "We are sitting on a volcano that is due to erupt in March, when the world will lay a diplomatic plan on the table," she said. "Either they will impose a plan on us, or we can initiate our own plan."

According to a directive issued by Abbas last week, within two months, Palestinians will receive driving licenses, passports and identity cards stamped with the title "State of Palestine." The new documents will replace all previous documents, which since 1993 when the Oslo Accords were signed, have borne stamps of the Palestinian Authority. Last Friday, the PA officially changed its name to the State of Palestine, and Abbas officially signed his first decrees bearing that name.

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According to Abbas's decision, these documents will be available not only to West Bank residents, but also to Palestinian refugees around the world and Gaza residents.

EU reportedly to offer new Middle East peace plan

http://www.timesofisrael.com/eu-reportedly-to-offer-new-middle-east-peace-plan/Jan 13, 2013The European Union is reportedly formulating a detailed peace plan to re-energize dormant Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

According to Israeli diplomatic sources cited by the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, the goal of the EU plan is to bring about the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with its capital in East Jerusalem. The report said the EU intends to set a clear timetable for negotiations between the two sides in 2013.

The plan is reportedly to be presented in March, once a new Israeli government is in place following the January 22 elections. Sources said that the plan will include land swaps between Israel and the Palestinian Authority as well as a complete freeze on all Israeli construction in the settlements.

The new plan has been initiated by the British and French foreign ministers, according to the report, with the support of Germany. Additionally, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton was said to be considering the option of adopting the plan as the official European stance. The Europeans have

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apparently already initiated contact with US President Barack Obama and incoming secretary of state John Kerry regarding the plan as well.

Diplomats cited in the report said that it would be difficult for Obama to oppose the plan, which was said to closely mirror his own stated views on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

At a meeting last week in Amman of the Middle East Quartet, which consists of the US, the UN, the EU and Russia, the EU reportedly wanted to begin deciding on the parameters of the new peace proposal, but US representatives said that they should wait until after the Obama inauguration on January 21 and the Israeli general elections the following day.

Israeli sources received reports that the EU would like to use the plan as the basis for a regional discussion, which would include the participation of Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states. Such a move would force Israel to join a pan-Middle East conference or risk being seen as an obstacle to peace, the report said.

“The Europeans cannot force an agreement on us, but they certainly have the ability to embarrass us,” a senior Israeli diplomat was quoted as saying. “They are formulating a policy of parameters that will set forth the principles of a future peace agreement, and they will put it on the table.”

The source said the Palestinians were very likely to accept such parameters, while Israel would have

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difficulties with it. “This will push us into a corner,” the source said.

Israel premier vows to proceed with E-1 settlement

http://news.yahoo.com/israel-premier-vows-proceed-e-1-settlement-140628655.html

Jan 13, 2013

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — Israel's prime minister pledged Sunday to move ahead with construction of a new Jewish settlement in a strategic part of the West Bank, speaking just hours after Israeli forces dragged dozens of Palestinian activists from the area.

The activists pitched more than two dozen tents at the site on Friday, laying claim to the land and drawing attention to Israel's internationally condemned settlement policy.

Before dawn Sunday, hundreds of Israeli police and paramilitary border troops evicted the protesters. Despite the eviction, Mustafa Barghouti, one of the protest leaders, claimed success, saying the overall strategy is to "make (Israel's) occupation costly."

The planned settlement, known as E-1, would deepen east Jerusalem's separation from the West Bank, war-won areas the Palestinians want for their state. The project had been on hold for years, in part because of U.S. objections.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revived the E-1 plans late last year in response to the Palestinians' successful bid for U.N. recognition of a state of Palestine in the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem.

Jewish settlements are at the heart of the current four-year impasse in Mideast peace efforts. The Palestinians have refused to negotiate while Israel continues to build settlements on the lands they seek for their state. Netanyahu says peace talks should start without any preconditions. Netanyahu also rejects any division of Jerusalem.

Israel expanded the boundaries of east Jerusalem after the 1967 war and then annexed the area — a move not recognized by the international community. Since then, it has built a ring of Jewish settlements in the enlarged eastern sector to cement its control over the city.

E-1 would be built in the West Bank just east of Jerusalem, and would close one of the last options for Palestinians to create territorial continuity between Arab neighborhoods of east Jerusalem, their hoped-for capital, and the West Bank. According to building plans, E-1 would have more than 3,000 apartments.

The Palestinians say they turned to the U.N. last November out of frustration with the deadlock in peace talks. They believe the international endorsement of the 1967 lines will bolster their position in negotiations. Israel has accused the

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Palestinians of trying to bypass the negotiating process and impose a solution.

Netanyahu told Israel Army Radio on Sunday that it would take time to build E-1, citing planning procedures. Still, he said, "we will complete the planning, and there will be construction."

Asked why the protesters were removed, Netanyahu said, "They have no reason to be there. I asked immediately to close the area so people would not gather there needlessly and generate friction and disrupt public order."

Palestinian protest leaders hoped the tent camp would be the first of a new type of well planned, nonviolent protests against Israeli policies in the Palestinian territories.

In recent years, Palestinians have staged weekly rallies in some areas of the West Bank, demanding to get back land they lost to Israel's separation barrier. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has held up such tactics as worthy of emulation. The protests have remained relatively small, and media coverage has dropped off over the years.

The tent camp was set up after a month of planning by grass-roots groups using Facebook, Google Earth and other tools to find the right spot and stay in touch, said organizer Abdullah Abu Rahma.

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The Palestinian Authority, the self-rule government in parts of the West Bank, provided legal assistance.

The activists said they pitched the tents on private Palestinian land and immediately obtained an Israeli court injunction preventing the removal of the tents for several days.

At the next court hearing, Israel will have to explain why it wants to take down the tents, said Mohammed Nazzal, a Palestinian Authority official whose department is involved in the legal proceedings. Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said he believes one of the issues in the hearing will be the status of the land where the tents were pitched.

Barghouti, meanwhile, said troops beat some of the protesters, a claim Rosenfeld denied. Rosenfeld said the protesters were carried away without injuries, put onto buses and dropped off at a West Bank checkpoint.

About half a million Israelis live in the dozens of settlements that dot the West Bank and east Jerusalem. Over the past 15 years, Jewish settlers have also set up dozens of rogue settlement outposts without formal approval, and critics say the government has done little to remove them.

The 'State of Palestine' exists

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/01/20131810252183781.htmlJan 10, 2013

On January 3, Mahmoud Abbas, acting in his capacities as the President of State of Palestine

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and Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, signed “Decree No. 1 for the year 2013”. While he did so with minimal ceremony or fanfare, and while the change formalised by this decree should surprise no one after the UN General Assembly’s overwhelming vote on November 29 to upgrade Palestine’s status at the United Nations to “observer state”, this change is potentially historic.

By this decree, the “Palestinian Authority”, created for a five-year “interim” period pursuant to the “Oslo” Declaration of Principles signed on the White House lawn in September 1993, has been absorbed and replaced by the “State of Palestine”, proclaimed in November 1988, recognised diplomatically by 131 of the 193 UN member states and supported in the recent General Assembly vote by an additional 28 states which have not yet formally recognised it diplomatically.

After citing the November 29 General Assembly Resolution, Article 1 of the decree states: “Official documents, seals, signs and letterheads of the Palestinian National Authority official and national institutions shall be amended by replacing the name ‘Palestinian National Authority’ whenever it appears by the name ‘State of Palestine’ and by adopting the emblem of the State of Palestine.” Concluding, Article 4 states: “All competent authorities, each in their respective area, shall implement this Decree starting from its date.”

In his correspondence, Yasser Arafat used to list all three of his titles under his signature - President of the State of Palestine, Chairman of the Executive

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Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organisation and President of the Palestinian National Authority (in that order of precedence). It is both legally and politically noteworthy that, in signing this decree, Mahmoud Abbas has listed only the first two titles. The Trojan horse called the “Palestinian Authority” in accordance with the “Oslo” interim agreements and the “Palestinian National Authority” by Palestinians, having served its purpose by introducing the institutions of the State of Palestine on the soil of Palestine, has now ceased to exist.

There is no further need for a Palestinian leader to be three-headed or three-hatted. While the Palestine Liberation Organisation will continue to represent all Palestinians everywhere, those Palestinians who live in the State of Palestine (whose territory is defined by the November 29 General Assembly Resolution as “the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967”) or who, living elsewhere, will be the proud holders of new State of Palestine passports will now also be represented by the State of Palestine.

Perhaps due, at least in part, to the low-key manner in which this change has been effected, it has attracted remarkably little attention from the international media or reaction from other governments, even the Israeli and American governments. This is not necessarily disappointing, since passive acceptance is clearly preferable to furious rejection.

The relatively few and brief media reports of the change have tended to characterise it as “symbolic”. It could - and should - be much more

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than that. If the Palestinian leadership plays its cards wisely, it could - and should - represent a turning point toward a better future.

The State of Palestine now exists on the soil of Palestine - albeit still, in varying degrees and circumstances, under belligerent occupation by the State of Israel.

In its November 29 Resolution, the General Assembly “Affirms its determination to contribute to the achievement of the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people and the attainment of a peaceful settlement in the Middle East that ends the occupation that began in 1967 and fulfills the vision of two States, an independent, sovereign, democratic, contiguous and viable State of Palestine, living side by side in peace and security with Israel, on the basis of the pre-1967 borders”.

The members of the international community must now show their determination not simply in words, but also in deeds and actions. In a world which professes to take human rights and international law, including the UN Charter, seriously, the perpetual belligerent occupation of one state by another state is inconceivable. The fact that the Israeli occupation of Palestine has been permitted to endure, expand and entrench itself for more than 45 years represents an appalling black mark against mankind. This occupation must now end.

Analysis: Israel left wing sees Jewish state's end

http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-israel-left-wing-sees-jewish-states-end-211322578.htmlJan 12, 2013

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TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — An apocalyptic tone has crept into Israel's hitherto muted election season, with opposition leaders and others sounding increasingly desperate warnings that a few more years of rule by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's heavily favored right wing might well destroy the Jewish state.

The idea is that by holding onto the lands Palestinians want for their state — and continuing to settle them with Jews — the Israeli right is marching blindly toward a future in which Arabs could outnumber Jews in the country and ultimately take over.

Perhaps the most strident proponent of this message is former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who four years ago led peace talks with the Palestinians and recently founded a new party whose primary message is that the Zionist project is in danger. "Netanyahu is leading us toward the end of the Jewish state," she said in a statement Friday. "Israelis must choose between extremism and Zionism. Israel is in great danger and everyone must wake up now."

Outgoing opposition leader Shaul Mofaz, a former military chief and defense minister, warns at campaign appearances that Arabs will soon outnumber Jews in the Holy Land and the main strategic priority must be to partition the land to prevent the emergence of a "binational state." Leaders of the main center-left Labor Party say much the same.

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Netanyahu's majority depends on his Likud party in coalition with other nationalist and religious groups known as the "right." Despite all its bewildering complications, the political spectrum ultimately resembles something of a two-party system.

The prime minister and his supporters have argued that Israel must not act in haste and many on the right stridently oppose any territorial concessions on the lands Israel captured in 1967 — the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, where the Palestinians want to set up their state.

The author Amos Oz, who has long been viewed as an oracle of sorts in Israel, called the governing coalition "the most anti-Zionist in the history of Israel" for ignoring the demographic issue.

"If there will not be two states here, neither will it (even) be a binational state — it will be an Arab state," he was quoted by Haaretz as saying on Friday. "They believe Jews can rule an Arab majority (but) no apartheid nation in the world survived without collapsing in a few years."

Netanyahu himself has at times conceded the logic of the argument: Israel proper has 6 million Jews living alongside almost 2 million Arab citizens; with the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza thrown into the mix, the populations divide about evenly and the Arab birthrate is higher. Hence, if Israel insists on

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ruling the entire Holy Land, Jews will be in the minority.

Even as the tipping point approaches, Israel continues to add to the Jewish settler population in the West Bank, which together with the Israelis who live in adjacent east Jerusalem now number a half million. Israelis on the left fret that too many settlers will make a partition impossible in a few years. Under this narrative, partition is not an Israeli "concession," which must await Palestinian promises of peace — but rather a life-saving surgery for the Zionist enterprise.

The demographic message resonates with many Jewish Israelis who — like the founding fathers of Zionism a century ago — view themselves as an ethnic group and consider Israel its nation-state. And it seems widely supported among the country's secular elites — in academia, the business world, major media organizations and even in the senior echelons of the security establishment.

Israel's security chiefs must generally clam up while in office, but outbursts by the recently retired have been striking: Yuval Diskin, who headed the Shin Bet security police, excoriated Netanyahu for missing a chance to pursue peace with the moderate Palestinian leadership of Mahmoud Abbas; Meir Dagan, who headed the Mossad spy agency, has portrayed the premier as a dangerous adventurer who might drag Israel into war with Iran; and former

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military chief Gabi Ashkenazi was so widely touted as a leader-in-waiting for the left that a law was passed freezing security officials out of politics for just long enough to keep him out of the current election season.

In an interview with the Yediot Ahronot newspaper, Diskin warned that the current lull in Palestinian violence was in danger because it depends on the Palestinian Authority's security cooperation with Israel — and Palestinian leaders "will not be able to be seen over time as the protectors of the Israeli interests while Israel, from their perspective, every day steals more lands, builds more (Jewish) settlements, and pushes away their dream of a state, chopping up the territory into parts that it will be very difficult to connect."

"I don't know whether it is possible to achieve peace, but with these moves we are certainly diminishing even the small chance that is left," Diskin said.

Yaron Ezrahi, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said it was "not surprising that in Israel the officers are more moderate ... as men of war who lost (friends) they become pragmatists because they all sense very clearly the limitations of power." But he warned that the broad support of a country's elites for a given political argument would not necessarily translate into a persuasion of the masses.

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Indeed, most polls show the right-wing bloc led by Likud as likely to win perhaps 65 of the 120 seats, enough to keep Netanyahu in power — even though studies suggest most Israelis would support a formal two-state solution if one were offered.

There are several reasons that account for this contradiction and compel so many Israelis to put the demographic issue aside.

First, Israel pulled out of the tiny but crowded Gaza Strip in 2005, removing all settlers and soldiers and cutting off its almost 2 million people from Israel with a fence. Thus many Israelis feel they won some "demographic time" and dumped the troublesome territory — yet the Palestinians see Gaza as linked to the West Bank and they consider it still occupied because Israel controls air and sea access to it.

Second, the vast majority of West Bank Palestinians live in autonomous zones set up in negotiations during the 1990s. There the Palestinian Authority enjoys a measure of self-rule, with its own services to citizens, its own police and various trappings of quasi-statehood — enabling Israelis to view this population as not exactly under occupation and already somewhat separated from Israel. They note that Israel has not formally annexed the West Bank, the implication being that even though the territory has Jewish settlers who can vote in Israeli elections — it is not Israel.

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But the reality is messy: dozens of islands of autonomy surrounded on all sides by the 60 percent of the West Bank still fully controlled by Israel, with Jewish settlements dotting the territory and Israel controlling Palestinians' movements between the zones and into and out of the West Bank. With the settlements in place, a reasonable-looking map is already difficult to envision.

Perhaps most damaging for the left, Israelis appear to have lost faith that the lands can be traded for peace, because even when their leaders proposed what they considered far-reaching offers no deal was reached. That happened under Prime Minister Ehud Barak in 2001, and again when the government of Ehud Olmert proposed a state on almost all the Palestinian territories in 2008.

One poll conducted several weeks ago showed 60 percent of Israeli Jews support a two-state peace agreement with the Palestinians — but 67 percent believe that "no matter which parties prevail, the peace process with the Palestinians will remain at a standstill for reasons not connected to Israel." The poll of 601 people had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Some — like columnist Elia Leibowitz — argue for a unilateral pullout from at least part of the territory, if a deal is unattainable. "The fateful question now facing Israel is Hamlet's: To be or not to be," Leibowitz wrote in Haaretz. "The

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option of Israel 'being' exists only if it withdraws from all the occupied territories."

But the unilateral model has been discredited in the eyes of many by the example of Gaza where the Israeli handover was followed by a takeover by the Islamic militant group Hamas and years of cross-border rocket barrages.

"As opposed to the voices that I have heard recently urging me to run forward, make concessions (and) withdraw, I think that the diplomatic process must be managed responsibly and sagaciously and not in undue haste," Netanyahu said last week. He notes that he has offered peace talks but the Palestinians insist on a settlement freeze, which is politically difficult for a right-wing government.

The sense that they have run out of options — and yet that something has to give — has some on the left predicting the world will step in.

"Maybe we need to hit rock bottom, to be on the verge of international sanctions or a (foreign) military intervention before change can happen," said Liora Norwich, a 30-year-old in a Tel Aviv cafe, concluding that in this sense a Netanyahu victory could be for the best.

And critically, the demographic argument alienates the Israeli Arabs who are crucial to any hopes of assembling a majority in the electorate against the right. Unlike the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza, they are citizens of Israel who can vote. But about half don't bother — a much lower participation

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level than that of the Jews — greatly diminishing the chances of the left to prevail.

Among that group as well, the idea that a separation is no longer possible is increasingly heard.

"Every day that passes, with the expansion of settlements ... closes the window of opportunity and sends people thinking about another option: the one-state solution," prominent Arab legislator Ahmed Tibi said.

Contemplating such as Arab-majority state, Tibi added: "That's probably the only option in which I will be prime minister."

eof

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