Mid Year Econ Briefing Sept 17 Sec Ralph Recto
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Transcript of Mid Year Econ Briefing Sept 17 Sec Ralph Recto
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8/7/2019 Mid Year Econ Briefing Sept 17 Sec Ralph Recto
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Real SectorReal Sector
Secretary Ralph G. RectoNational Economic and Development Authority
The Philippines:The Philippines:Addressing Challenges, Staying the CourseAddressing Challenges, Staying the Course
Philippine Economic BriefingPhilippine Economic BriefingSeptember 2008September 2008
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Secure in the global storm
Foundation of fiscal reformsFalling national government deficit: from P 187billion in 2004 to P33 billion currentlyOn track to balance the NG budget by 2010Posting public sector surpluses
Falling debt to GDP ratiosMore funds to invest in infrastructureGross international reserves at an all-time high inJuly ($ 36.9 billion); healthy balance of paymentssurplus
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Philippine economy slows down.Philippine economy slows down.
5.9
8.0
5.75.5
6.9
2.3
4.2
5.4
7.2
5.45.0
6.4
4.4
1.8
4.64.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
H1
GNP GDP
Source: NSCBSource: NSCB
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Source: NSCBSource: NSCB
GrowthRate
(y-on-y, %)
1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 1st Half
2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008
GNP 7.3 5.8 9.8 5.5 8.6 5.7
GDP 7.0 4.7 8.3 4.6 7.6 4.6
NFIA 11.3 18.3 25.3 14.1 18.7 15.9
AFF 4.0 2.7 4.2 4.9 4.1 3.7
INDUSTRY 6.6 3.0 10.3 4.8 8.6 3.9
SERVICES 8.4 6.5 8.4 4.3 8.4 5.4
First Semester 2008First Semester 2008Economic PerformanceEconomic Performance
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Some countries in the region postedSome countries in the region postedslower Q2 2008 growthslower Q2 2008 growth
8.3
4.6
16.4
10.1
6.2
4.2
6.4 6.4
9.1
2.1
4.9 4.8 4.35.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
grow
thrate,%
Philippines China Hongkong Indonesia Singapore South Korea Thailand
Source: Country websites
2007Q2 2008Q2
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The Government of the
Republic of the PhilippinesEmerging Growth ScenarioEmerging Growth Scenario
Source: NEDA, DBCCSource: NEDA, DBCC
INDICATORS 20072008
Target
2009
Target
GNP
(Emerging) 8.0 5.9-6.7 6.9-7.8GNP MTPDP 6.9-7.8 7.0-8.0 7.2-8.2
GDP(Emerging)
7.2 5.5-6.4 6.1-7.1
GDP MTPDP 6.5-7.5 6.8-7.8 7.0-8.0
Agriculture 4.9 4.3-5.2 5.1-6.2
Industry 7.1 5.0-6.4 6.2-7.1
Services 8.1 6.3-6.9 6.5-7.4
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
ChallengesChallenges
Poor absorptive capacities
Volatility in world oil
Higher food prices
Inflationary pressures
Export outlook affected by the slowdownin the economy of export markets
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The Government of the
Republic of the PhilippinesStrategies to boost growthStrategies to boost growth
Improve the absorptive capacity of government
agencies, especially in public works;
Improve NG-LGU coordination and encourage more
private sector participation in infrastructure
Encourage exporting firms to diversify, innovate, and
technologically upgrade their products; Continue strong support for agriculture; and
Expand trade, investment, and tourism with China
Attract more investment from the Middle East
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Critical Investments: HEARTSCritical Investments: HEARTS
ecurity/Shelter/ Social Protection/ Subsidies
ealth
ducation
griculture
oads/ Bridges/ Railroads
echnology/ Tourism
H
E
A
RT
S
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Upgrading the countrys infrastructure
Comprehensive and Integrated Infrastructure Program (CIIP)
expanded infrastructure portion of the Medium-Term PublicInvestment Program (MTPIP)includes PPP and JV projectsexcludes purely LGU-funded projectsfinancing scheme: public and private sector sources
a) ODA loans;b) GAA;c) NG-LGU cost sharing;d) PPP/Joint Venture (JV);
e) Corporate funds; andf) Proceeds accruing from those mandated by law (i.e. EPIRA).
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Communications
56.49
3%
Social
Infrastructure
167.91
8%
Support to ARCs
31.88
2%
Relending
Programs
36.69
2%Transportation
754.69
38%
Power and
Electrification
611.0730%
Water Resources347.53
17%
2008-2010 and beyondTotal investments =PhP 2,006.26 billion
* PhP1,149.24 B = 4.69%of GDP (2008-2010)
CIIP Investment Requirement
by Sector
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
CIIP Investment Requirement
by Financing Source
(2008- 2010 and beyond in PhP Billion)
LGUs
10
0.5%Other
Sources
118
6%
Private
613
31%GOCCs94
5%
GFI
26
1.3%
NG
1,145
56%
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Roads and
Bridges
327.48
44%
Rail
Transport
292.9939%
Water
Transport
24.8
3%
Air
Transport
109.42
14%
2008-2010 and beyondTotal investments =PhP 754 69 billion
PhP402.55 B = 1.66% ofGDP (2008-2010)
Transportation Sector
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Roads and BridgesRoads and Bridges
Magapit-Sta. Ana Road (Magapit-Mission Section), Cagayan
Tarlac-La Union Toll ExpresswayPhase 1 (TLUTE 1) Baler- Casiguran Road
Halsema Highway
Farm to Market Roads (entire NLAQ)
North Luzon Expressway (NLEX)Phase 2, C5 to MacArthur
Manila-Cavite Toll Expressway, R-1Extension Project
South Luzon ExpresswayExtension Project
Daang-Hari SLEX Link Road
Marikina-Infanta Road, Quezon
Circumferential Road 6
Southern Tagalog Arterial Road(STAR) Project, Stage 2
Metro Manila Skyway, Stage 2Panay Island Package
Roxas City Circumferential RoadPandan-Libertad-Antique/
Aklan Boundary Road
Roxas-Taytay Road, Palawan
Palawan South Road
Bohol Circumferential RoadPhase III
Iloilo-Sta. Barbara Road
Metro Iloilo Radial Road
Cebu NorthCoastalRoad
Dakak-Dapitan Road
Gutalac-Siocon-Siraway-Sibuco-
Baliguian Road
Panguil Bay Bridge
Dinagat Island Road Network
Surigao-Davao CoastalRoad (Bislig-ManaySection)
Central Mindanao Inter-RegionalCircumferential Road, Cotabato (Jct.
Awang)- Upi- Lebak- Kalamansig Road
Tarlac-Nueva Ecija-Aurora-Dingalan Port RoadNLAQ
LUB
CP
AM
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Rail TransportRail Transport
North Rail Project Phase 1, Section1 (Caloocan-Malolos) & Section 2
(Malolos-Clark)
LRT Line 1 Modernization
Project, Phase II
Northrail-Southrail Linkage Project,Phase1(Caloocan to Alabang) and Phase 2 (Alabang Calamba)
LRT Line 1 South Extension-Baclaran to Bacoor, Cavite)
LRTA Line 1, North Extension(Closing the loop)
MRT 7
MRT 3 CAPEX
Mainline South RailwayProject (Southrail) Phase IA(Calamba- Lucena)
LRT Line 1 NAIA Connector
LRT Line 2 East Extension toMasinag
Mainline South Railway Project(Southrail), Phase 1B (Lucena-
Legaspi) & Phase II (Extension toSorsogon)
NLAQ
LUB
CP
AM
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The Government of the
Republic of the Philippines
Real SectorReal Sector
Secretary Ralph G. RectoNational Economic and Development Authority
The Philippines:The Philippines:Addressing Challenges, Staying the CourseAddressing Challenges, Staying the Course
Philippine Economic BriefingPhilippine Economic BriefingSeptember 2008September 2008