Nearly 240 years after British scientist HenryCavendish first isolated and identified‘inflammable air’ as a distinct gas, this element– later named hydrogen – now has the potentialto become the clean and efficient solution toour global energy needs, via fuel celltechnology. Many in the scientific, academicand business communities agree on the vastpromise and economic potential of hydrogen-powered fuel cells.

Yet those who work in the fuel cell industryare also acutely aware that before the globalmarket can progressively develop and adopt thistechnology, we must first surmount severaltechnological, economic and societal hurdlesthat impede the progress of fuel cells. Forstarters, we need multiple champions and early‘killer applications’ around the world for fuelcell technology. And we need our own call toaction – a slogan or mantra, if you will – thatstrikes a universal chord among those whowork in or study fuel cell-related industries, and stokes and evangelizes their interest inpromoting the subject.

Creating our own ‘Moore’s Law’In a real sense, what the fuel cell industry truly needs is its own equivalent to Moore’sLaw – Gordon Moore’s well-known predictionthat integrated circuits would double theirperformance at half the cost every 18 months.The wonder about Moore’s Law is not somuch the fact that it has held relatively true since 1965, although this is remarkableconsidering that Moore had only about four years of production research on integ-rated circuits available when he made hisprediction.

Rather, what makes Moore’s Law unique isthat it became the grail for everyone affiliatedwith the semiconductor industry. Smallcompany or large, academic or not, scientistsand researchers worldwide have workedcollaboratively – often out of sheer pride – toachieve the next iteration of Moore’s Law.

Imagine what could happen if the samefervor for progress guided and compelled the

fuel cell industry. The spark is already there.From a start of nothing just a few years ago,the economic impact of fuel cells is projectedto reach US$8.5 billion by 2005, and $23.2billion by 2010, according to the internationalbusiness research company, Freedonia Group.

But how will the fuel cell industry achievethese lofty financial projections? What could orshould we be doing to collectively advance thistechnology? And how do we know if we’remaking progress along the way?

Parallels tomicroelectronicsWe can start by taking a cue from themicroelectronics industry of a generation ortwo ago, which seems to offer many parallelsto the fuel cell industry today. In fact, themore we know how these two industrieseffectively compare, the better the position wewill be in to ensure the continued progress offuel cells. Consider the following similaritiesbetween microelectronics and fuel cells:

• Society-changing influence: A little morethan 20 years ago, semiconductors becamewidely available on the market, andquickly and decisively took the world bystorm. Consider how the personalcomputer has evolved over the past twodecades, thanks to semiconductors. PCshave progressed from an expensive noveltyitem owned by a select few to a relativelyinexpensive and ubiquitous worldwidepresence in homes, businesses, schools andeven social settings like coffeehouses.

Twenty years from now, fuel cells havejust as great a potential as semiconductorsdid two decades ago to change and benefitsociety as we know it. What may seemoutlandishly fanciful today through fuelcells will likely be as common as acellphone by the tiem the next generationbecome adults.

FEATURE

Microelectronics lessonsapply to fuel celldevelopmentBy John Goodman, President – Entegris Fuel Cells, Minnesota, USA

To make the promise of hydrogen fuels a reality, we need to pay close attention tothe lessons of history. Hydrogen-powered fuel cells have the capability ofpowering our cars, portable computers and phones, and even our homes. Thetechnology could be as world-changing as Alexander Graham Bell’s telephone,Thomas Edison’s light bulb, Henry Ford’s Model T or the Bob Noyce–Jack Kilbysemiconductor. We already know the technology behind hydrogen fuel cells canwork, but taking the technology from concept to commercialization is the truechallenge. History can help: when the semiconductor or computer chip wasinvented in 1961, the infant industry knew it had a potential winner – but fewimagined the pervasive uses and applications we take for granted today. Theproblems of engineering mass-production manufacturing processes and the toolsto perform those processes were significant problems. Worldwide standards wereneeded so that chips manufactured in the US could work in products assembledin Japan from European designs. Unlike the automobile and telephone, thesemiconductor industry set out to make its products as interchangeable aspossible on a global basis. Thinking global from the outset and using lessonslearned in the semiconductor industry could help deliver fuel cells faster to morepeople with more efficiency.

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• The hurdles or challenges of limitedperformance, short lifetimes and highcosts: Those who are old enough toremember the early days of semi-conductors also know the early limitationsof this technology. Semiconductor-drivenappliances and tools were often pokey,short-lived and expensive: consider suchdevices as the early-generation calculatorsand video cameras. But of course theydidn’t stay that way. These problems werejust a temporary blip until we hadmachines that were better performers,lasted longer and were less expensive than their predecessors. What occurred to make this happen? Manufacturers roseto meet market demand challenges forimprovements, and began deliveringsemiconductor-related products withsignificant gains in pricing, performanceand quality.

We already know that first-generation fuelcells are relatively expensive, have powercapabilities below what will someday bepossible, and could be made more durable.But we should be confident that as fuel celltechnology improves, fuel cells in the futurewill cost less, last longer and perform betterthan what is currently available. It is simply amatter of effort and time.

• Entrenched incumbent technology: One ofthe greatest hurdles to the widespreadadoption of fuel cells is the fact that ourincumbent technologies are so firmlyentrenched – and will remain so for years tocome. Internal combustion engines, theelectric grid, batteries, refineries, pipelines,gas stations and power-generating plants arenot going to disappear overnight – norshould they. Yet the fact that theseincumbent technologies are so firmly setshould not discourage fuel cell developersand advocates.

Keep in mind that microelectronics alsoreplaced an existing, although not asentrenched, technology – but it tookdecades to achieve. What drove the progressof such innovations as semiconductors wasthe fact this technology was better, cheaper,faster and easier to use than anything else available. Integrated circuits were aparadigm shift improvement over vacuumtubes – and eventually, the world awoke tothis reality.

• Limited availability: Related to theprevalence of our incumbent energytechnologies is the fact that there is currentlya limited availability of fuel cell products onthe market. Those that are currentlyavailable appeal primarily to early adoptersof new technologies.

Yet keep in mind that when microelectronicsdevices entered the market roughly 30 years

ago, they had a similarly esoteric appeal. Thefirst buyers of microelectronics devices had alimited selection of products available, receivedminimal product support, and paid a premiumfor the privilege. But that didn’t stop theprogress of these products, whose cost,usefulness and availability gradually improved.As fuel cells improve, they too will becomemore widely available to marketers, retailersand consumers.

Emphasizing governmentinvolvementFor the fuel cell industry to someday reach themarket potential of microelectronics, it willneed multiple drivers in government andindustry to push purchasing, technologicalimprovements and widespread adoption. Basedon our microelectronics experience, theinvolvement of government is especiallyimportant. Early in the evolution ofmicroelectronic technology, its greatestadvocates and adopters were the government-funded military and aerospace industries,especially in the US.

As a result, through the 1960s and 1970s,the US led the world in semiconductorproduction. But by the 1980s, the Far Easthad supplanted US dominance. Since it didn’twant to have a military whose basictechnology was produced overseas, the USgovernment quickly took action. As a result,the US formed Sematech to successfully regainits semiconductor supremacy, and in turnpromote even greater adoption of thistechnology.

Just as the US then believed it faced a threatto its technological infrastructure by relyingon overseas semiconductor production, so toodo the US and other nations currently believethey face a similar problem by relying onforeign nations for petroleum. Many of thenations that are the world’s leading suppliersof petroleum are in unstable parts of the

world, or are unstable themselves. That is why,in January 2003, President George W. Bushmade fuel cells a focal point of his State of theUnion address. His goal was to explain thepotential of fuel cells, galvanize support for this technology, and emphasize that the US can no longer rely primarily on overseaspetroleum sources.

Government can help lead the way, throughits own bulk purchasing decisions. Themilitary is a logical candidate for fuel celltechnology, but there are many additionalopportunities. Government-owned vehicles,such as US Postal Service delivery vehicles,could be powered by fuel cells. Andgovernment-owned buildings could containfuel cells to supply some or all of their powerneeds. Through bulk purchases of fuel cells,government will help fuel cells progress from the lab into mainstream life, and give ahigher degree of certainty that these productswill someday be economical enough formainstream consumer purchasing.

Global associationsneededIt will be equally important as well for govern-ments worldwide to promote the adoption ofuniversal standards in design and productionfor fuel cells. Only then will we be able to strip away the barriers that currently exist in the fuel cell industry, to share knowledgeand have open markets. The fuel cell industry should also push to adopt a singleworldwide association, so that its standardscan be applied universally throughout theworld.

Such a global association would be betterable to advocate the advantages of fuel cellsaround the world and collect and distributeinformation faster and more efficiently than the many nation- or region-specificassociations we have today. A good model for aglobal association and how it could help with

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11December 2003 Fuel Cells Bulletin

Semiconductors Fuel cells• Truly disruptive • Potential to be truly disruptive• Early products were too large, had • Current products need reduced

limited/poor performance, relatively size, better performance, lowerhigh cost and short lifetimes cost and longer lifetimes

• Incumbent technology relatively • Incumbent technology entrenchednew and undeveloped and very well developed

• Limited early drivers • Limited early drivers• Became a US national security • Becoming an energy security issue

issue in late 1980s (Sematech) for many countries• Foundation of one of the largest • Will be one of the largest

industries in the world today industries in the world

Table 1. Microelectronics versus the fuel cell market.

developing standards would be the work thathas been done by the US Fuel Cell Council,which – looking at its global membership –could be considered an internationalcollaboration.

Adopting a global association was preciselywhat the microelectronics industry needed inthe 1980s to achieve its success today. Ifanything, the microelectronics industry had atougher nationalistic battle than the fuel cellindustry now faces. Back in the 1970s and early 1980s, widespread trade wars,accusations of ‘dumping’ and nationaleconomic sanctions imperiled the futuregrowth of microelectronics. But like battlingsiblings who gradually awake to the fact thatthey could accomplish more by workingtogether than fighting among themselves, theleading microelectronics-producing nationsdrove to form a single global association andstandards. We still enjoy the fruits of thiseffort to this day.

Because of the cost and complexity of fuel celldevelopment, the industry should also strive tocreate more consortia whose members are whollycommitted to technological improvements inpre-competitive areas.

Championing fuel celladvancesIn addition to forming fuel cell alliances andassociations between nations and companies, thefuel cell industry should also publicly commun-icate about itself, broadly and loudly, andcelebrate significant technological break-throughs. By doing so, knowledge and inform-ation about fuel cells will advance beyond thedomain of a select few to a more mainstream andglobal audience.

Entegris has gained notice through thesuccess of its products and its eagerness tosuccessfully communicate about and capitalizeon its knowledge. A recent example includes a celebration of the installation of a multi-

kilowatt, Plug Power PEM fuel cell – a first for Minnesota – at Entegris’ facility in Chaskato supplement the electricity used and supplyhot water. This installation will enable thecompany to gain first-hand experience andapply what it learns to further fuel celldevelopment.

Companies and groups working in fuel celltechnology will achieve similar communicativesuccess by being willing to talk about theirsuccesses – and champion the work of others inthe industry. Again, look no further than themicroelectronics industry for an example ofhow such verbalization of success worked tothe benefit of all within the industry. Beyondcost and availability improvements, the mainreason why microelectronics devices likecellular phones and personal computerssucceeded so well in the market was because ofthe favorable and widespread publicity thesedevices achieved.

The automotive and transportationindustries are tailor-made to announce andadvocate improvements made within fuel celltechnology. Not only do companies in thissector have a significantly large and well-established communications capability (viaadvertising and public relations), but they alsohave literally thousands of media outlets –many solely dedicated to these industries – thatare ready and willing to talk about theseadvances.

The fuel cell industry will follow a step-by-step progression from communications aware-ness to adoption that is similar to what hasoccurred within the microelectronics industrywithin the past 40 years. Keep in mind thatbefore microelectronics became widely andpublicly available, the military and aerospaceindustries were nearly the sole users of thistechnology. By the 1970s, microelectronicsentered the mainframe computers of suchcompanies as IBM and Digital. It was not untilthe 1980s – two decades after its initialintroduction – that microelectronics entered

the consumer realm through such equipment aspersonal computers and microelectronics-equipped cars. The technology continued toadvance in the 1990s, as telecommunications,wireless and networking devices all becamemore popular.

In the next few years, the fuel cell industrywill see a similar sequential adoption byconsumers. In the next two to three years, fuelcells will begin appearing in portableelectronic devices, such as laptop computers,as well as be used more widely by the military,which wants to reduce its reliance on batteriesto power field devices. Next, within thefollowing five years, fuel cells will be indemand as providers of stationary power,distributed power and uninterrupted power –first by industrial and critical facilities andlater in residences, especially in remotelocations. Within a decade or so, as fuel cellsbecome more economical, small enough andpowerful enough to power vehicles, the auto-motive and transportation industries willbegin using them widely.

Next stepsFor all of the promise of fuel cells, their orderlyintroduction and adoption in the market willnot occur unless fuel cell designers, manu-facturers and system integrators continue tointroduce products into the market in a timelyfashion. It would be a mistake for any of thesegroups to unnecessarily delay introduction. Infact, great opportunity awaits those who gofirst. In the history of microelectronics, manymanufacturers rushed to put on the marketproducts that may not have been technicallyperfect, but served the need for that time.Eventually, these manufacturers learned how to make their products better and give the public precisely what it wanted and needed. Inresponse, the market delivered – to theeconomic success of many of those earlymanufacturers.

Considering that it has taken more than two centuries since hydrogen was firstdiscovered to adequately and more completelydetermine how to capitalize on this promisingenergy carrier, the next few years in thedevelopment of fuel cells are the blink of aneye. But having reference points along the way,such as the lessons of the microelectronicsindustry, will help reassure the pioneers of fuelcell technology – and help propel them tosignificant success.

For more information, contact: John Goodman,President, Entegris Fuel Cells, 3500 Lyman Boulevard,Chaska, MN 55318, USA. Tel: +1 952 556 4155, Fax:+1 952 556 8023, Web: www.entegrisfuelcells.com

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12Fuel Cells Bulletin December 2003

• Identify and accelerate industry drivers• Develop and publish an industry roadmap• Create a ‘Fuel Cell Moore’s Law’ mentality• Create volume through government purchase programs and early-adopter products• Nurture manufacturing science• Promote R&D consortia versus go-it-alone approach for pre-competitive areas• Act like a global industry now – it will eventually happen, and more international cooperation

will accelerate the growth of the fuel cell market• Develop one global industry association to focus on:

• Standards• Advocacy (governmental and public relations)• Industry informaton collection and dissemination (products)

Table 2. Lessons learned from the development of the microelectronics industry.