Michigan Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990 and 2002

Pierre Bull, Colin McMillan, Asako Yamamoto

Report No. CSS05-07

April 8, 2005

Michigan Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990 and 2002

Pierre Bull

Colin McMillan

Asako Yamamoto

Gregory A. Keoleian, Faculty Advisor

Center for Sustainable Systems

School of Natural Resources and Environment

University of Michigan

Ann Arbor, MI

Prepared for

Michigan Department of Environmental Quality

April 2005

Report No. CSS05-07

Document Description

MICHIGAN GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 1990 AND 2002

Pierre Bull, Colin McMillan, and Asako Yamamoto Center for Sustainable Systems, Report No. CSS05-07, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, April 8, 2005. 128 pp., tables, figures, 11 appendices This document is available online: http://css.snre.umich.edu

A project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Natural Resources and Environment) at the University of Michigan

Center for Sustainable Systems School of Natural Resources and Environment The University of Michigan 440 Church St., Dana Building Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1041 Phone: 734-764-1412 Fax: 734-647-5841 e-mail: css.info@umich.edu http://css.snre.umich.edu  Copyright 2005 by the Regents of the University of Michigan

PROJECT FUNDING

This project was made possible through grants provided by these organizations: Energy Foundation DTE Energy Foundation Center for Sustainable Systems State of Michigan, Pollution Prevention Retired Engineer Technical Assistance Program (RETAP)

Student Internship Program Education Foundation of America ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Michigan Department of Environmental Quality: David Mason, Environmental Quality Analyst, Modeling and Meteorology Unit, Air Quality Division U.S. EPA : Andrea Denny, Environmental Protection Specialist, State & Local Capacity Building Branch

Michigan Environmental Council: David Gard, Energy Policy Specialist Center for Sustainable Systems: Helaine Hunscher, Center for Sustainable Systems Program Coordinator Acknowledgements Dr. David Ellsworth, Assistant Professor of Plant Ecophysiology, U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment

Abstract

Global climate change is said to be the greatest forthcoming human-environmental problem of the 21st Century. This report is the first greenhouse gas emissions inventory developed for the State of Michigan, providing estimates of the emissions of the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons) in the years 1990 and 2002.

This inventory was developed in accordance with methodologies outlined by the U.S. EPA’s State and Local Capacity Building Branch and the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP). The State Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tool (SIT) was used to calculate emissions for these gases from energy related activities (stationary and mobile combustion of fossil fuels and fugitive emissions), industrial processes (non- energy related activities), agricultural activities, land-use change (carbon sequestration resulting from land-use change, excluding forestry) and waste (solid waste and wastewater management activities).

Our results indicate that the total Michigan greenhouse gas emissions increased nine percent from 57.42 million metric tons carbon equivalent (MMTCE) in 1990 to 62.59 MMTCE in 2002. This increase was largely driven by an absolute gain in CO2 emissions from transportation. Overall, CO2 from fossil fuel combustion was responsible for over 85 percent of the total for both years. The largest contributor to the overall emissions was the electricity generation sector (33 percent of the total emissions in 2002), followed by the transportation sector (26 percent of the total emissions in 2002). Per capita emissions were 6.23 MTCE in 2002. This inventory serves as a resource for government, the public and business in the state to assist in developing policies and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

MICHIGAN GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 1990 AND 2002

I

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ES 1

Methodology ES 2

Key Limitations ES 3

Key Findings ES 3

Conclusions ES 6

1. Introduction 1

1.1 Global Climate Change and the Role of Greenhouse Gases 2

1.2 Greenhouse Gases Inventoried 4

1.3 State- level Greenhouse Gas Inventories 6

1.4 Report Organization 7

2. Methodology 9

2.1 Emission Inventory Improvement Program 9

2.2 State Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tool 9

2.3 Quality Assurance / Quality Control Procedures 10

3. Energy 12

3.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Combustion of Fossil Fuels 14

End-Use Sector Consumption 21

Residential and Commercial End-Use Sectors 25

Industrial End-Use Sector 26

Transportation End-Use Sector 27

Electric Utility End-Use Sector 28

3.2 Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Mobile Combustion 29

3.3 Natural Gas and Oil Systems 35

MICHIGAN GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 1990 AND 2002

II

3.4 Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Stationary Combustion 38

Residential Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions 43

Commercial Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions 44

Industrial Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions 44

Electric Utility Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions 44

4. Industrial Processes 45

4.1 Emissions Summary 46

4.2 Greenhouse Gas Intensity Analysis 51

4.3 Industrial Process Emissions Description 53

Iron and Steel 53

Cement Manufacture 54

Lime Manufacture 55

Limestone and Dolomite Use 57

Soda Ash Consumption 57

Semiconductor Manufacture 58

Substitution of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) 59

Magnesium Production and Casting 60

Electric Power Transmission and Distribution 61

Other Industrial Processes 62

5. Agriculture 64

5.1 Methane Emissions from Domesticated Animals 66

5.2 Manure Management 68

5.3 Agricultural Soil Management 72

5.4 Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 77

MICHIGAN GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 1990 AND 2002

III

6. Land-Use Change 79

6.1 Liming of Agricultural Soils 79

6.2 Yard Trimmings 79

7. Waste 81

7.1 Municipal Solid Waste 83

7.2 Wastewater Treatment 89

8. Results and Conclusion 92

8.1 Michigan Greenhouse Gas Emissions 92

8.2 Emissions by Greenhouse Gas Type 93

8.3 Emissions by Economic Sectors 96

8.4 Comparisons with the United States 101

8.5 Recommendations for Future Action 105

References 107

MICHIGAN GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 1990 AND 2002 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ES 1

Executive Summary

This report is the first greenhouse gas emissions inventory developed for the State of Michigan. Activities generating greenhouse gas emissions are compared to establish an emissions baseline and reveal trends across economic sectors within the state. The inventory highlights major sources of emissions by sector and by greenhouse gas for 1990 and 2002. Global climate change is said to be the greatest forthcoming human- environmental problem of the 21st Century. Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from anthropogenic activities over the past two centuries have led to an accelerating build-up of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. With greater heat energy in the atmosphere, dramatic changes are likely in the coming decades concerning the earth’s global climate, sea level and sea ice, and the ocean thermohaline system. According to the leading international consortium of climate scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “We have clear evidence that human activities have affected concentrations, distributions and life cycles of these gases.”i Expected climate changes in Michigan over the next century will likely show warmer average temperatures with longer periods of drought, most notably during the summer. The growing season is likely to extend by as much as ten weeks. Of significant cultural and economic concern to Michigan are the Great Lakes. It is estimated that the water levels of the Lakes will continue to decline, which could potentially be very costly to Michigan’s fishing, tourism, and shipping industries.ii The United States is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, responsible for nearly one-quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Absent federal leadership on confronting global climate change, the task of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States is left to individual states. A greenhouse gas inventory for Michigan is a necessary first step for the state in developing a meaningful plan to address global climate change.

i IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: A Scientific Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International Energy Agency. Houghton, et al. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, U.K. Retrieved from: http://www.ipcc.ch/p