Michele Bozzano

IPGRI

Climate change and forest genetic diversity

Climate change and forest genetic diversity

• Climate change – the problem

• International context

• Case studies

• Climate change and FGR in Europe

• Research needs and Concluding remarks

Gösta ErikssonForest geneticsmodified

Global climate change is not a recent phenomenon

Forest trees have continuously responded on climate change

New is the speed of change

New is the degradation of the environment

Gösta ErikssonForest genetics

Mutation rates in these traits

Factors of importance in case of rapid global change

Dispersal ability

Existing additive variance in important traits

Speed of evolution

Mating pattern

Possibilities to acclimate

Climatic conditions suitable for growth of species A

Gösta ErikssonForest genetics

http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://www.frameweb.org/ev_en.php?ID=1123_201&ID2=DO_TOPIChttp://www.climate.org/CI/asia.shtml

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap11.pdf

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/411.htm

Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tpbiodiv.pdf

http://unfccc.int

http://www.unep-wcmc.org/climate/index.html

http://www.biodiv.org/programmes/cross-cutting/climate/

default.asp

Case study

Australia

Ensis Forests

THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION

THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION

Determining Tree Species Climatic Requirements and Climate Change Impacts on Their Distributions

Trevor H. Booth

and Tom Jovanovic

THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION

Booth & Jovanovic (2005)

Climatic change study for AGO

CSIRO Marine & Atmos. Res. scenarios DARLAM & Cubic Conformal 2030 & 2070 31 tree species

THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION

THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION

Hughes et al. (1996) Vulnerable Euc. hotspot

Present CC 2030 CC 2070

Of possible interst: Matching Trees and Sites”.  ACIAR

Proceedings No. 63

http://www.aciar.gov.au/web.nsf/doc/JFRN-5J474N

To try to have a free copy write to:comms@aciar.gov.au specifying the country and the use you wish to do with it

Climate change and FGR in Europe

Climate change and FGR in Europe

• Fourth Ministerial Conference on the Protection Forests in Europe (MCPFE), Vienna, Austria, 2003– Vienna Resolution 5: Climate change and

sustainable forest management

• Workshop on ‘Climate change and forest genetic diversity: Implications for sustainable forest management in Europe, Paris, France, 15-16 March 2006

Jarkko Koskela IPGRI

Climate change and FGR in Europe

Climate change and FGR in Europe

Key issues in Europe

• Adaptation of forest trees

• Forest management

• Policies and economic considerations

• Conservation of forest genetic resources under climate change

Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees

Climate change and sessile oak (Quercus petraea)

Current distribution:ObservedSimulated

Future distribution 2080:Gain Stable Loss

Simulations with BIOMOD modelThuiller 2003, Global Change Biology

Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees

• Simulations are often based on the ‘climatic envelope’ approach

• The responses are not likely to be simple and straightforward

• Genetic processes in tree populations can modify their ecological niches – at individual level (plasticity, individual

heterozygosity, changes in gene expression) the responses can be fast

Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees

• How fast a tree population respond to climate change? Answers from:– Long-distance transfer of forest

reproductive material– Provenance trials– Theoretical simulations

Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees

• Experimental evidences:– Long-distance transfer results in most

cases to rapid differentiation of populations (e.g. landraces in exotic species; American oaks and conifers in Europe)

– Tree populations have undergone profound genetic differentiation as a result of natural selection (based on 50-yr provenance trials)

Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees

• Migration– The current tree species in Europe have

gone through selection process based on their capacity to migrate during the glacial-interglacial changes (extinctions of many species and genera (Magnolia, Liriodendron, Nyssa,Taxodium, Sequoia) during the process)

– Can be an efficient mechanism to withstand climate change

Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees

• Problems for migration– Spontaneous migration of tree species is

unlikely in Europe today (intensive management, fragmented landscapes)

– Landscape is not empty but filled with existing plant species -> interspecific competition

– Can be a slow process

Adaptation of forest treesAdaptation of forest trees

• Careful transfer of forest reproductive material based on scientific results have the potential to accelerate adaptation of forest trees to climate change in Europe

• The effects of climate change on tree populations are different in various parts of Europe (temperature, droughts)

Research needs

• Understanding

• Mitigate (CO2 storage + environment restoration)

• Safeguard the species and their genetic diversity